Week in Review – July 28 – August 1, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
July 28 – August 1,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
6 / 6 3 4 2  / 0 7  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

July 28 – August 1, 2014

New purchases for the week beat the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.4% and surpassed the adjusted index by 0.9% during the worst week in about two years.

While performing better than the market those new positions still lost ground for the week.

With lots of companies reporting earnings this week it was all overshadowed by other events that converged to do their damage.

New positions opened this week went 1.3% lower while the overall market was 2.7% lower on an unadjusted basis and 2.2% lower on an adjusted basis.

Existing positions again significantly out-performed the market for the week by a really unusually large 2.8%. If the week’s big gainer, First Family Stores 2 lots which were closed early in the week are removed from consideration, the out-performance was still a very high 1.3%.

Existing positions actually showed an overall gain of 0.2% for the week if Family Dollar Stores is included, as compared to the market loss of 2.7%. If Family Dollar Stores is removed then the existing positions fell 1.3% as compared to the market’s fall which was twice as large.

Performance of closed positions out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.7%. They were up 3.7% out-performing the market by 83.9%. 

This was not a very good week for the markets, with it all turning fairly suddenly on Thursday, most likely due to Argentine default news and word of increasing sanctions against Russia.

Add to that continuing turmoil in the Middle East, Ebola scares, worries of increasing interest rates and the fear of heights, you really had the makings for profit taking.

For those holding shares of either or both lots of Family Dollar Stores, the week started off nicely, as did new purchases.

But that changed pretty quickly.

Following an almost 400 point decline in the DJIA over the final two trading days I feel fortunate to have had any assignments, at all. Even the early assignment of Texas Instruments to grab its dividend turned out to be a good thing.

Somehow, there was also the opportunity to pull off a few rollovers and even some new covered positions on existing uncovered shares.

After the dust cleared the entire portfolio was lower, but owing to the good fortune of being able to make some of those additional trades, no where close to the decline that the market suffered.

While I was happy to have seen some assignments, rollovers and the new call sales, I would have liked to have rolled over even more and was disappointed by the number of positions that fell victim to the two day slide. However, it just didn’t seem very practical or rewarding to roll some of those positions over to the next or even following week, as the costs to have done so made me rather take my chances with some recovery early in the week and hopefully the ability to simply sell new calls.

While I hate to take losses in any given week, one of the early lessons I learned from reading Money Magazine about 30 years ago is that when they rated mutual funds one of the really key ratings, but which they said was under-estimated by most others, was how a fund performed in a down market. That’s the principal reason I look so closely at comparative performance for each position and cumulatively.

Money Magazine used their mathematical models to show that it was far easier for a portfolio, or a fund, to catch up if it trailed in an advancing market, but far more difficult if it trailed in a declining market.

Conceptually, that makes sense, particularly if you think in terms of what needs to be done in the event of a loss.

Imagine a loss of 20% versus one of 25%.

The 20% loss requires a gain of 25% to reach back to your starting point. However, that 25% loss needs a 33% gain to recover. Decreasing your loss makes it much easier to outperform.

Among the reasons I like volatility, which is now suddenly in everyone’s vocabulary, is that it tends to be associated with a down market. That actually becomes the most opportune time to pull away from the crowd and to position yourself for the next stage higher. That tends to be easier to do than you might think because the volatility, while depressing stock prices, happens to drive premiums higher and also makes it more lucrative to even rollover in the money positions.

Next week it’s anyone’s guess as to whether the market follows through with the weakness of the past few days.

But with some cash in reserve and the good luck of having had at least a couple of assignments to offset some of the new purchases this week, there may be some bargains to be had as trading begins.

If volatility shows itself in the premiums, there may be good reason to bypass the weekly expiration and go straight to the monthly contract, which is just 2 weeks away and also buy a little time for the market to perhaps repair itself, while we sit and get paid to wait.









 

 

 





 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   BX, DOW, EBAY, IP, PFE, TXN

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  C, EBAY, GPS

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycleCHK

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  BMY, GPS, HFC

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  BMY, KSS, TXN

Calls Expired:   BX, DOW, EBAY ($54.50), GM, IP, RIG ($43), RIG ($44)

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  FDO, FDO

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: C (7/31 $0.01), PFE (7/29) $0.26

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  WLT (8/6 $0.01)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BX, C, CLF, COH, DOW, EBAY, FCX, GM, IP, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR , RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – August 1, 2014

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 1, 2014 (9:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

Today’s possible outcomes include the following, although it may be another tumultuous day with some surprises in store. As in some recent weeks I may elect to defer rollovers if the cost of doing so seems too high relative to the reward.

AssignmentsBMY, KSS

Rollovers:  EBAY, GPS

ExpirationsBX, DOW,  EBAY, GM, IP, RIG, RIG

 

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.Had I known yesterday that today would have had no redeeming qualities, I would have stayed in bed.

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 31, 2014 (Close)

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 31, 2014 (Close)

Had I known yesterday that today would have had no redeeming qualities, I would have stayed in bed.

Any day that comes at the very end of the month and simply wipes out the entire gains for that month is a day best left unfaced.

Whenever I wake up to visions of red on the screen as this morning the first thought that comes to my mind is “what day is it?”

Looking at the prospects of a DJIA opening approximately 100 points lower based on the futures trading the thought occurs that such an open would be far more welcome on a Monday than on a Thursday.

Now that the day’s trading has come to its close, that simple 100 point drop would have been much appreciated, as opposed to how the day came to its end, as we had one of the worst trading days in about 4 months and which left no sector unscathed.

Being a Thursday and nearly the end of the trading week you can understand the simple thought process of wondering what day it is when things are looking bad. How much better is it to wake up on a Monday morning with freshly freed up cash from assignments and to be greeted by falling prices?

Contrast that with wanting to get rid of positions or roll them over and to be greeted by declining prices on a Thursday, or even worse, on a Friday, when there’s no chance of getting a bounce back later in the week..

I know which order I prefer and it’s strongly associated with the concept of “buy low, sell high” or in my case, “buy low, sell somewhere near low, but preferably a little higher and with a dividend, too, if that’s not asking too much.”

When they say “what a difference a day makes,” I doubt that they had stock markets on the mind, but the relative order of daily results can have such a significant impact on outcomes, sometimes for good and sometimes less so.

This morning’s poorly timed news event on everyone’s mind is primarily related to Argentina and how it has perceived its debt obligations and its various class of debt holders.. It’s one thing to be unable to pay back a nation’s debt, but it may be another thing when it’s the eighth time.

With Argentina in technical default of loans after a very protracted legal battle you can understand how the market may take that as a negative signal, although  there’s really no reason to believe that problem goes any further or deeper. The expectation shouldn’t be that it becomes the nidus for a larger and systemic market decline.

Beyond Argentina there are increasing concerns that growing sanctions against Russia will also have adverse impact on a number of corporations, particularly in the energy sector, but there is always the threat of trickle down and growing economic “tit for tat” that take out the innocent, as well. It might come as no surprise if suddenly McDonalds or Coca Cola were to find themselves in the cross hairs of some previously inert regulatory mechanism.

Adding to those bits of international news was some further futures weakening as jobless claims rose in the most recent period.

That’s consistent with the less than expected numbers seen in yesterday’s ADP report and may hold some clue as to what we might expect with tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report.

No one, other than a Republican in a congressional race, really wants to see anything that can be construed as a slowing down of the growth of employment. Most of us would prefer to see growth, especially to confirm the good GDP numbers that were released yesterday, to only transient applause.

So today held some challenges and tomorrow will be a wild card as the non-farm payroll numbers will have their influence one way or another.

That likely means that today, which turned out not to have very many rollover opportunities, will just have to become a distant memory in the hope that tomorrow brings the opportunities that would have been welcome today.

Today would have been an idea day to get those trades done, especially since you never know what tomorrow will bring..

I only wish I would have realized that expression had so much meaning yesterday.

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 31, 2014

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 31, 2014 (9:00 AM)

Whenever I wake up to visions of red on the screen as this morning the first thought that comes to my mind is “what day is it?”

Looking at the prospects of a DJIA opening approximately 100 points lower based on the futures trading the thought occurs that such an open would be far more welcome on a Monday than on a Thursday.

How much better is it to wake up on a Monday morning with freshly freed up cash from assignments and to be greeted by falling prices?

Contrast that with wanting to get rid of positions or roll them over and to be greeted by declining prices.

I know which order I prefer and it’s strongly associated with the concept of “buy low, sell high” or in my case, “buy low, sell somewhere near low, but preferably a little higher and with a dividend, too, if that’s not asking too much.”

When they say “what a difference a day makes,” I doubt that they had stock markets on the mind, but the relative order of daily results can have such a significant impact on outcomes, sometimes for good and sometimes less so.

This morning’s poorly timed news event on everyone’s mind is primarily related to Argentina and how it has perceived its debt obligations and its various class of debt holders.. It’s one thing to be unable to pay back a nation’s debt, but it may be another thing when it’s the eighth time.

With Argentina in technical default of loans after a very protracted legal battle you can understand how the market may take that as a negative signal, although  there’s really no reason to believe that problem goes any further or deeper. The expectation shouldn’t be that it becomes the nidus for a larger and systemic market decline.

Beyond Argentina there are increasing concerns that growing sanctions against Russia will also have adverse impact on a number of corporations, particularly in the energy sector, but there is always the threat of trickle down and growing economic “tit for tat” that take out the innocent, as well. It might come as no surprise if suddenly McDonalds or Coca Cola were to find themselves in the cross hairs of some previously inert regulatory mechanism.

Adding to those bits of international news was some further futures weakening as jobless claims rose in the most recent period.

That’s consistent with the less than expected numbers seen in yesterday’s ADP report and may hold some clue as to what we might expect with tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report.

No one, other than a Republican in a congressional race, really wants to see anything that can be construed as a slowing down of the growth of employment. Most of us would prefer to see growth, especially to confirm the good GDP numbers that were released yesterday, to only transient applause.

So today may hold some challenges and tomorrow will be a wild card as the non-farm payroll numbers will have their influence one way or another.

That likely means that today will be a day to look for whatever rollover opportunities may exist and attempt to secure those trades, if any, while they are still possibilities, as you never know what tomorrow will bring.

I only wish I would have realized that expression had so much meaning yesterday.

 

 

 

 

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Daily Market Update – July 30, 2014 (Close)

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 30, 2014 (Close)

When did the FOMC become such a yawner?

Actually, today was a disappointing one. Given the strong GDP number you might have expected a strong reaction, but just as when the market didn’t give a strong reaction to the significant downward revision last month, you really can’t expect to have it both ways.

The market did seem to react to some more news of sanctions against Russia and then generally moved higher after the FOMC release, despite an initial move lower.

The real story of the day was Twitter.

The reaction to Twitter’s earnings released yesterday afternoon was pretty implausible and makes you wonder who exactly runs in to purchase shares after hours when a buying frenzy is going on. You have to have lots and lots of confidence to commit to a stock when its shares jump about 30% in the blink of an eye, especially when they’ve shown that they can also do the same in the opposite direction.

I have enough trouble running in and doing so after a 1% climb, but there’s something unnerving about buying into something when there’s a big price gap, just as there’s something unnerving about being on the wrong side of a gap lower.

For me, the good news is that if the price holds until Friday I will finally be out of shares that started as a put sale at $47, then an assignment at $43.50 and a large number of rollovers of both puts and calls in an effort to stay ahead of assignment, including the sale of even more puts at lower prices to generate offsetting revenues. 

First the fear was that of assignment of puts and then the fear was that of assignment of calls when executing DOH trades.

Fear can be a good motivator, but it’s a lot easier to take than stress, because somewhere along the line I believed that somehow everything would work out, or at least not be as bad as things may appear.

What the process, now that it’s coming to an end demonstrates is that it is possible to make proverbial lemonade even when things aren’t looking very good. Unfortunately, there are plenty of lemons to deal with sometimes.

In the case of Twitter it was easier because the shares have some volatility. That’s the secret sauce that makes some things more likely.It is what enhances premiums, even when they’re deep in the money. It is what is lacking in most other positions and that makes it difficult to maneuver in the event of an adverse price movement.

That adverse price movement can be higher, just as easily as it can be lower.

I mention that because of one subscriber who had sold August 16, 2014 calls on his Family Dollar Store holdings. With shares being now deep in the money after the buyout bid the likelihood of being able to roll those shares over into the future at a higher strike price in order to gain some benefit from the buyout isn’t very high as long as the volatility is low.

When the original stake by Icahn was announced we were able to rollover shares to a higher strike and participate in the share’s appreciation due to  having selected an option expiration that coincided with earnings. That alone caused the enhanced volatility that allowed a trade to be made, and to live to see another day.

In the current case the next earnings date is in October. While that may give some opportunity, there is another difference between the Family Dollar of old and the Family Dollar of today.

Back then there was still an unlimited potential for the share price to climb, as Icahn had just entered the picture. Now, there is a defined offer that prices shares at about $74.50. While that can change if some other player comes in, the volatility won’t appear again unless that  happens. That immediately limits potential trade opportunities.

But, like today’s FOMC statement release, you just never know if a surprise is just around the corner. You really can’t take anything for granted.

As long as a company still has some breath in it there’s always the chance, in fact, the probability that it will show some recovery. The key is whether that recovery is enough to start instituting some measures, such as DOH trades, to start resurrecting the position’s ability to support itself and justify its existence in a portfolio.

That requires a lot of patience sometimes, but that patience, as it grows, also comes with a remarkable reduction in stress.

Of course, nothing reduces that stress more than profits.

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 30, 2014

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 30, 2014 (8:30 AM)

The reaction to Twitter’s earnings released yesterday afternoon was pretty implausible and makes you wonder who exactly runs in to purchase shares after hours when a buying frenzy is going on. You have to have lots and lots of confidence to commit to a stock when its shares jump about 30% in the blink of an eye, especially when they’ve shown that they can also do the same in the opposite direction.

I have enough trouble running in and doing so after a 1% climb, but there’s something unnerving about buying into something when there’s a big price gap, just as there’s something unnerving about being on the wrong side of a gap lower.

For me, the good news is that if the price holds until Friday I will finally be out of shares that started as a put sale at $47, then an assignment at $43.50 and a large number of rollovers of both puts and calls in an effort to stay ahead of assignment, including the sale of even more puts at lower prices to generate offsetting revenues. 

First the fear was that of assignment of puts and then the fear was that of assignment of calls when executing DOH trades.

Fear can be a good motivator, but it’s a lot easier to take than stress, because somewhere along the line I believed that somehow everything would work out, or at least not be as bad as things may appear.

What the process, now that it’s coming to an end demonstrates is that it is possible to make proverbial lemonade even when things aren’t looking very good. Unfortunately, there are plenty of lemons to deal with sometimes.

In the case of Twitter it was easier because the shares have some volatility. That’s the secret sauce that makes some things more likely.It is what enhances premiums, even when they’re deep in the money. It is what is lacking in most other positions and that makes it difficult to maneuver in the event of an adverse price movement.

That adverse price movement can be higher, just as easily as it can be lower.

I mention that because of one subscriber who had sold August 16, 2014 calls on his Family Dollar Store holdings. With shares being now deep in the money after the buyout bid the likelihood of being able to roll those shares over into the future at a higher strike price in order to gain some benefit from the buyout isn’t very high as long as the volatility is low.

When the original stake by Icahn was announced we were able to rollover shares to a higher strike and participate in the share’s appreciation due to  having selected an option expiration that coincided with earnings. That alone caused the enhanced volatility that allowed a trade to be made, and to live to see another day.

In the current case the next earnings date is in October. While that may give some opportunity, there is another difference between the Family Dollar of old and the Family Dollar of today.

Back then there was still an unlimited potential for the share price to climb, as Icahn had just entered the picture. Now, there is a defined offer that prices shares at about $74.50. While that can change if some other player comes in, the volatility won’t appear again unless that  happens. That immediately limits potential trade opportunities.

But, like today’s FOMC statement release, you just never know if a surprise is just around the corner. You really can’t take anything for granted.

As long as a company still has some breath in it there’s always the chance, in fact, the probability that it will show some recovery. The key is whether that recovery is enough to start instituting some measures, such as DOH trades, to start resurrecting the position’s ability to support itself and justify its existence in a portfolio.

That requires a lot of patience sometimes, but that patience, as it grows, also comes with a remarkable reduction in stress.

Of course, nothing reduces that stress more than profits.

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 29, 2014 (Close)

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 29, 2014 (Close)

While today will be another busy earnings day, having already gotten underway with Pfizer and others, it’s likely to be relatively quiet as it usually is once the FOMC meeting gets underway.

While some additional sanctions on Russia did have some mildly negative impact on the market, ringing it down from an equally mild gain, it was really a quiet day and no surprises were in store, other than from a possible gift from the IRS to companies with significant land holdings used to bury cables, such as for land telephone lines and cable television.

However, the real surprise would be if at 2 PM tomorrow there is some surprise coming from the statement released after the two day meeting. However, increasingly the words are being parsed for the slightest hint of nuance or the appearance of a new word or deletion of an old one, in order to ascertain what is really going on in the minds of those in control of the economy. That could mean some reaction beyond the usual knee-jerk response, which itself was actually missing at least month’s release.

Following a nice recovery from yesterday’s early sell-off there’s reason to believe that records could easily be assaulted again, especially if some of the bigger names come out with earnings. It doesn’t take too much to move the DJIA and this morning both Merck and Pfizer seem to be contributing to the pre-open advance, as they have released their earnings. Verizon and AT&T are also both up strongly, helping to give the DJIA an early lead over the broader S&P 500.

Pfizer, itself, later gave up a nice gain, not because of earnings, but almost the instant it mentioned that it wasn’t giving up on the idea of a blockbuster kind of acquisition, perhaps even another run at Astra Zeneca. Apparently the market didn’t like that kind of aggressiveness particularly with the flurry of concern around so called “inversions” which could include being ineligible for any kind of federal contracting, which could be a huge blow to a company like Pfizer. 

Otherwise, with the early assignment of Texas Instruments in order to capture the dividend that pesky problem of having cash is even greater now. I would still have liked the opportunity to spend some down and would have liked to have to seen another day of some downward moves or at least some flatness while awaiting something that looks appealing.

That downward move didn’t come until the end of the day, but hopefully the day’s earlier purchases in International Paper and Blackstone will still turn out to have been a relative bargain prices.

As with other times that problem of having cash has been the case, I’m not too likely to want to compound that problem by spending it down just for the sake of spending it down. Last Friday seemed to bring some relative bargains, but the key word is “relative.” Many stocks still look and feel expensive so there has to be a nagging voice somewhere questioning every potential new purchase as being without value.

By the same token everything that looks like a bargain may get the same scrutiny as a 45 year old bachelor. People want validation for their biases. Why in the world hasn’t he never been married? Why would it be so “cheap” when everything else is going higher?

While one may certainly be a lifestyle choice, it would be hard to find anyone other than a short seller who wouldn’t want to see shares higher, so wondering why something hasn’t been participating may be a justified question.

Whereas yesterday I felt willing to jump in without waiting for much validation, in the hopes of picking up some of those seeming bargains, I don’t have that same confidence this morning. With the very strong early moves in some of the DJIA components there may be some early skew to the perception of how the market will actually trade. Those gains just seem to be illusory, very much based on some financial engineering ideas put forth by a tiny player in the communications sector that may have big implications for the likes of the behemoths, Verizon and AT&T.

So while I thought I would revert back to recent style and watch and see how the market’s trend, if any, would develop this morning, sometimes those plans gets scuttled as the opportunities seem to appear.

Sit would turn out, whether due to the new sanctions or not, much of the early rise fueled by the IRS decision died down as investors may have come to the realization that what matters for Verizon and others may have little to no relevance for anyone else and still may have some regulatory and even some further IRS hurdles ahead.

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 29, 2014

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 29, 2014 (9:30 AM)

While today will be another busy earnings day, having already gotten underway with Pfizer and others, it’s likely to be relatively quiet as it usually is once the FOMC meeting gets underway.

The real surprise would be if at 2 PM tomorrow there is some surprise coming from the statement released after the two day meeting. However, increasingly the words are being parsed for the slightest hit of nuance or the appearance of a new word or deletion of an old one, in order to ascertain what is really going on in the minds of those in control of the economy. That could mean some reaction beyond the usual knee-jerk response, which itself was actually missing at least month’s release.

Following a nice recovery from yesterday’s early sell-off there’s reason to believe that records could easily be assaulted again, especially if some of the bigger names come out with earnings. It doesn’t take too much to move the DJIA and this morning both Merck and Pfizer seem to be contributing to the pre-open advance, as they have released their earnings. Verizon and AT&T are also both up strongly, helping to give the DJIA an early lead over the broader S&P 500.

With the early assignment of Texas Instruments in order to capture the dividend that pesky problem of having cash is even greater now. I would still like the opportunity to spend some down and would like to see another day of some downward moves or at least some flatness while awaiting something that looks appealing.

As with other times that problem of having cash has been the case, I’m not too likely to want to compound that problem by spending it down just for the sake of spending it down. Last Friday seemed to bring some relative bargains, but the key word is “relative.” Many stocks still look and feel expensive so there has to be a nagging voice somewhere questioning every potential new purchase as being without value.

By the same token everything that looks like a bargain may get the same scrutiny as a 45 year old bachelor. People want validation for their biases. Why in the world hasn’t he never been married? Why would it be so “cheap” when everything else is going higher?

While one may certainly be a lifestyle choice, it would be hard to find anyone other than a short seller who wouldn’t want to see shares higher, so wondering why something hasn’t been participating may be a justified question.

Whereas yesterday I felt willing to jump in without waiting for much validation, in the hopes of picking up some of those seeming bargains, I don’t have that same confidence this morning. With the very strong early moves in some of the DJIA components there may be some early skew to the perception of how the market will actually trade. Those gains just seem to be illusory, very much based on some financial engineering ideas put forth by a tiny player in the communications sector that may have big implications for the likes of the behemoths, Verizon and AT&T.

So I think that I want to revert back to recent style and watch and see how the market’s trend, if any, will develop this morning, as they may come to the realization that what matters for Verizon may have little to no relevance for anyone else and still may have some regualtory and IRS hurdles ahead.

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 28, 2014

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 28, 2014 (Close)

This has the potential to be a busy week.

For the first time in a little while there’s some market moving news that may be at hand as both the FOMC statement is released and the Employment Situation Report ends the week.

In-between are about 140 of the S&P 500 companies reporting earnings.

So far, though, as far as the morning that is set to begin the week’s trading goes, it appears to be a relatively quiet start to the week and that’s exactly what today ended up being.

Unless you owned shares of Family Dollar Stores.

I recently spoke about “serendipity” as a factor in outcomes. The Family Dollar Story is a perfect example, as it received an unexpected buyout offer this morning.

For those that remember, just about two months ago a DOH trade was made on a lot of FDO and a regular call sale made on another lot. At the time I felt good about making those trades on that Friday, but at the close of trading came word that Carl Icahn had taken a position and shares shot up higher in the after hours.

Then, just as suddenly, I didn’t feel very good about those trades.

After some manipulation that took advantage of some enhanced premiums associated with earnings, we were able to prevent those positions from being assigned at such a low price, only to watch shares subsequently fall and then see their most recent calls expire this Friday, without being rolled over.

I usually am not terribly happy when I can’t get a rollover trade, but in the case of FDO the premiums were just so low that the costs of closing out the option positions in order to open new ones on Friday were really just too high to have made it worthwhile.

Serendipity.

This morning came word of a buyout from a different suitor.

While there may be some more value to be wrung out of shares, as the original suitor may still be in the mix, I was ready to close the position without concern for whatever more may be on the table and did so in the pre-opening hours.

Little events, such as the sale of calls or the inability to sell calls and such varied outcomes.

Unless you have the ultimate in inside information, you can only ascribe being on the right side of those events as “luck.”

When a gift like this appears and you think about the luck involved to still be in a position to profit from that luck, it seems greedy to want to press for even more luck, or try to engage in some kind of passive arbitrage as third parties may or may not battle it out.

Hopefully there will be more of that luck to go around this week, with or without Family Dollar.

With some assignments last week and the Family Dollar surprise added to it, cash reserves are way up and the market closed on the downside last Friday.

That’s a combination that I tend to like. Better yet, there’s no indication of a bounce higher this morning, so if inclined to pick up shares there may still be some prices in line with Friday’s close.

With some positions set to expire this week, but not too many, there isn’t the same kind of reluctance as last week, to pick up new positions with contracts expiring the same week. Even though that’s what was done last week, it wasn’t really a preference, it was just that forward week premiums were so low.

This week volatility is very slightly elevated so we’ll see how those forward week premiums look once the option markets open for trading.

With cash in hand I don’t mind making some purchases to bring those levels down. The past few weeks have been very quiet on that end, but luckily the combination of new cover, rollovers and the occasional purchase here and there have done reasonably well at a time that the market has been moving higher in a halting fashion.

As opposed to the past couple of months where I’ve waited to see how trading would go during the first 30 minutes or so, this week I may be inspired to pick up any relative bargains on the early side of the day.

Other than FDO, today was a fairly sedate day, just another with little to no movement and little to no insight into where the market may be going or into what may be leading the market to whatever direction it will be heading.

With money still in hand after only two purchases today, I wouldn’t mind some more opportunities presenting themselves tomorrow or later in the week.

With the two large events scheduled to begin at the week’s mid-point, where feasible, as was done just a few weeks ago, again in a serendipitous fashion, I will look for opportunities to execute early rollovers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dashboard – July 28 – August 1, 2014

 

 

 

 

 

Selections

MONDAY:  A potentially busy week ahead with still lots of earnings, an FOMC release and the Employment Situation Report to close the week. The morning, however, appears to be off to a quiet start

TUESDAY:     More earnings today and FOMC begins their meeting. Market usually doesn’t commit or make big moves prior to meeting, but there’s little reason to believe that there will be anything earth shattering coming tomorrow

WEDNESDAY:  Will Twitter propel the market? Not likely, as most will likely be waiting for FOMC statement release before commiting too much. No surprises are expected this afternoon, but since when does reality get a say in decisions?

THURSDAY:    What a difference a day and the day can make. The market appears to be ready to open on a large down note. How much better that generally is on a Monday rather than a Thursday becomes pretty clear as assessing rollover and assignment probabilities.

FRIDAY:  Some follow-up to yesterday’s plunge looks likely, at least before the looming Employment Situation Report which is more likely to exacerbate than to help things, if there is any reaction in store

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

More and More Earnings

After last week’s deluge of 150 of the S&P 500 companies reporting their earnings this week is a relatively calm one.

For all of its gyrations last week, including the sell-off on Friday, if you simply looked at the market’s net change you would have thought that it was a quiet week as well.

The initial week of earnings season did see seem promise coming from the financial sector. Last week was a mixed one, as names such as Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN) went in very different directions and the initial responses to earnings didn’t necessarily match the final result, such as in the case of NetFlix (NFLX).

While some of the sell-off on Friday may be attributed to the announcement of additional European Council sanctions against Russia and perhaps even the late in the session downgrade of stocks and bonds by Goldman Sachs (GS), earnings had gotten most of the week’s attention.

The coming week offers another opportunity to consider potential trades that can profit regardless of the direction of share price movements, as long as they stay reasonably close to the option market’s predictions of their trading range in response to those reports.

In line with my own tolerance for risk and my own definition of what constitutes a suitable reward for the risk, I prefer the consideration of trades that can return at least 1% for the sale of a weekly put option at a strike level that is below the lower boundary defined by the option market’s assessment. Obviously, everyone’s risk-reward profile differs, but I believe that consistent application or standardizing criteria by individual investors is part of a discipline that can make such trades less anxiety provoking and less tied to emotional factors.

Occasionally, I will consider the outright purchase of shares and the sale of calls, rather than the sale of puts for such trades, but that is usually the case if there is also the consideration of an upcoming ex-dividend date, such as will be the case with Phillips 66 (PSX). Additionally, doing so would most likely be done if I had no hesitancy regarding the ownership of shares. In contrast, often when I sell puts I have no real interest in owning the shares and would much prefer expiration or the ability to roll over those contracts if assignment appeared likely.

This coming week there again appear to be a number of stocks deserving attention as the reward may be well suited to the level of risk, thanks to the option premiums that are enhanced before earnings are released.

As often is the case the stocks that are most likely to be able to deliver a 1% or greater premium at a strike level outside of the implied move range are already volatile stocks, whose volatility is even greater in response to earnings. While at first glance an implied move of 12%, as is the case for Yelp (YELP) may seem unusually large, past history shows that concerns for moves of that magnitude are warranted.

Among the companies that I am considering this coming week are Anadarko (APC), Herbalife (HLF), MasterCard (MA), Mosaic (MOS), Merck (MRK), Outerwall (OUTR), Phillips 66, T-Mobile (TMUS), Twitter (TWTR) and Yelp.

These potential trades are entirely based upon what may be a discrepancies between the implied price movement and option premiums that will return the desired premium. Generally, I don’t think very much about those issues that may have relevance prior to considering a purchase of shares. The focus is entirely on numbers and whether the risk-reward proposition is appealing. Issues such as whether people are tweeting enough or whether a company is based upon a pyramid strategy can wait until the following week. Hopefully, by that time I would be freed from the position and would be less interested in those issues.

Deciding to pull the trigger is often a function of the prevailing price dynamic. My preference when selling put contracts is to do so if shares are falling in price in advance of earnings. For example, last week I did not sell puts on Facebook (FB), as its shares rose sharply prior to earnings. In that case, that represented a missed opportunity, however.

Compared to the previous week’s close of trading when the market had a sizable gain, this past Friday there were widespread losses, perhaps resulting in a different dynamic as the coming week begins its trading.

While I would rather not take ownership of shares, there must be a realization that doing so may be inevitable or may require additional actions in order to prevent that unwanted outcome, such as rolling the put option forward, if possible.

If there is a large decline in share price well beyond that lower boundary, the investor should be prepared for an extended period of needing to juggle that position in order to avoid assignment while awaiting some price recovery. I have some positions, that I’ve done so for months. The end result may be satisfactory, but the process can be draining.

The table may be used as a guide for determining which of this week’s stocks meet risk-reward parameters. Re-assessments should be made as share prices  option premiums and strike levels may change. 

While the list can be used in executing trades before the release of earnings, there may also be opportunity to consider trades following earnings. I typically like to consider those trades if a stock moved higher before earnings and then plunged afterward, if in the belief that the response was an over-reaction to the news. In such cases there may be an opportunity to sell put options whose premiums will still see some enhancement as a reflection of the strong negative sentiment taking shares lower.

Ultimately, if large price movements are either anticipated or have already occurred there is usually some additional opportunity that arises with the perceived risk at hand. If the risk isn’t realized, or if the risk is managed appropriately, the reward can be very addictive.

Weekend Update – July 27, 2014

It seems that almost every week over the past few months have both begun and ended with a quandary of which path to take.

Talk about indecision, for the previous seven weeks the market closed in the an alternating direction to the previous week. This past week was the equivalent of landing on the “green” as the S&P 500 was 0.12 higher for the week, but ending the streak.

Like the biology experiment that shows how a frog immersed in water that is slowly brought to a boil never perceives the impending danger to its life, the market has continued to set new closing record high after record high in a slow and methodical fashion.

With all the talk continuing about how money remains on the sidelines from 2008-9, you do have to wonder how getting into the market now is any different from that frog thinking about climbing into that pot as it nears its boiling point.

Unless there’s new money coming in what fuels growth?

That’s not to say that danger awaits or that the slow climb higher will lead to a change in state or a frenzied outburst of energy leading to some calamitous event, but the thought could cross some minds.

Perhaps Friday’s sell off will prompt some to select one path over another, although a single bubble doesn’t mean that as you’re immersed in a bath that it is coming to a boil. It may entirely be due to other reasons, such as your most recent meal, so it’s not always appropriate to jump to conclusions.

While the frog probably doesn’t really comprehend the slowly growing number of bubbles that seem to be arising from the water, investors may begin to notice the rising number of IPO offerings entering the market and particularly their difficulty in achieving pricing objectives.

I wonder what that might signify? The fact that suddenly my discount brokerage seems to be inundating me with IPO offers makes me realize that it does seem to be getting hotter and hotter around me.

This coming week I’ve had cash reserves replenished with a number of assignments, somehow surviving the week ending plunge and I see many prices having come down, even if just a little. That combination often puts me into a spending mood, that would be especially enhanced if Monday begins either on the downside or just tepidly higher.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories. 

The big news in the markets this week was Facebook (FB) as its earnings report continued to make clear that it has mastered the means to monetize a mobile strategy. While it produces nothing it’s market capitalization is stunning and working its way closer to the top spot. For those in the same or reasonably close sector, the trickle down was appreciated. One of those, Twitter (TWTR) reports earnings this week and the jury is still very much out on whether it has a viable product, a viable management team and even a viable life as an independent entity.

For all of those questions Twitter can be an exciting holding, if you like that sort of thing. I currently hold shares that were assigned to me after having fallen so much that I couldn’t continue the process of rolling over puts any longer. The process to recover has been slow, but speeded a bit by selling calls on the way higher. However, while that has been emotionally rewarding, but as may be the case when puts are sold and potential ownership is something that is shunned, has required lots of maintenance and maneuvering.

With earnings this week the opportunity arises again to consider the sale of new Twitter puts, either before earnings are released or if shares plunge, afterward.

The option market is implying an 11.7% move in shares upon earnings. a 1% weekly ROI may possibly be obtained at a strike price that’s 14.8% below Friday’s close.

While Twitter is filled with uncertainty, Starbucks (SBUX) has some history behind it that gives good reason to have continuing confidence. With the market having looked adversely at Starbucks’ earnings report, Howard Schultz gave an impassioned and wholly rational defense of the company, its operations and prospects.

In the past few years each time Starbucks shares have been pummeled after earnings and Schultz has done as he did on Friday, it has proven itself an excellent entry point for shares. Schultz has repeatedly shown himself to be among the most credible and knowledgeable of CEOs with regard to his own business and business strategy. He has been as bankable as anyone that can be found.

With an upcoming dividend, always competitive option premiums and Schultz standing behind it, the pullback on Friday may be a good time to re-consider adding shares, despite still trading near highs.

While I suppose Yelp (YELP) could tell me all about the nearest Starbucks and the experience that I might expect there, it’s not a site that gets my attention, particularly after seeing some reviews of restaurants that pilloried the businesses of places that my wife and I frequent repeatedly.

Still, there’s clearly something to be had of value through using the site for someone. What does have me interested is the potential opportunity that may exist at earnings. Yelp is no stranger to large moves at earnings and for those who like risk there can be reward in return. However, for those who like smaller dosages of each a 1% ROI for the week can potentially be achieved at a strike price of $58 based on Friday’s $68.68 closing priced and an implied move of 12%. Back in April 2014 I received an almost 3% ROI for the risk taken, but don’t believe that I’m willing to be so daring now that I’m older.

Following the market’s sharp drop on Friday it was difficult to not jump the gun a little bit as some prices looked to be either “too good” or just ready. One of those was General Motors (GM). Having survived earnings last week, albeit with a sizeable share drop over the course of a few days and wading its way through so much litigation, it is quietly doing what it is supposed to be doing and selling its products. An energized consumer will eventually trade in those cars that have long passed their primes, as for many people what they drive is perceived as the best insight into their true standing in society. General Motors has traded nicely as it has approached $33 and offers a nice premium and attractive dividend, making it fit in nicely with a portfolio that tries to accentuate income streams even while shares my gyrate in price.

I never get tired of thinking about adding shares of eBay (EBAY). With some of my shares assigned this past Friday despite some recent price strength after earnings, I think it is now in that mid-point of its trading range from where it has been relatively easy to manage the position even with some moves lower.

Carl Icahn has remained incredibly quiet on his position in eBay and my guess, based on nothing at all, is that there is some kind of behind the scenes convergence of thought between Icahn and eBay’s CEO, John Donahoe, regarding the PayPal jewel.

With all of the recent talk about “old tech,” there’s reason to consider one of the oldest, Texas Instruments (TXN) which goes ex-dividend this coming week. Having recently traded near its year’s high, shares have come down considerably following earnings, over the course of a few days. While still a little on the high side, it has lots of company in that regard, but at least has the goods to back up its price better than many others. It, too, offers an attractive combination of dividend, premiums and still possibility of share appreciation.

Reporting earnings this week are both MasterCard (MA) and MetLife (MET). Neither are potential trades whose premiums are greatly enhanced by the prospects of earnings related surprises. Both, however, are companies that I would like to once again own, possibly through the sale of put options prior to earnings being announced.

MasterCard suffered on Friday as collateral damage to Visa’s (V) earnings, which helped drag the DJIA down far more than the S&P 500, despite the outsized contribution by Amazon (AMZN) which suffered a % decline after earnings. On top of that are worries again from the Russian market, which earlier in the year had floated the idea of their own credit system. Now new rules impacting payment processors in Russia is of concern.

MasterCard has been able to generate satisfactory option premiums during an otherwise low volatility environment and despite trading in a $72 – $78 range, as it has regular bounces, such as seen this past week.

I have been waiting for MetLife to trade down to about the $52 range for the past two months and perhaps earnings will be the impetus. For that reason I might be more inclined to consider opening a position through the sale of puts rather than an outright buy/write. However, also incorporated into that decision process is that shares will be going ex-dividend the following week and there is some downside to the sale of puts in the face of such an event, much as their may be advantage to selling calls into an ex-dividend date.

Finally, there hasn’t been much that has been more entertaining of late than the Herbalife (HLF) saga. After this past week’s tremendous alternating plunge and surge and the absolute debacle of a presentation by Bill Ackman that didn’t quite live up to its billing.

While there may certainly be lots of validity to Ackman’s claims, which are increasingly not being nuanced, the opportunity may exist on both sides of the controversy, as earnings are announced next week. Unless some significant news arises in addition to earnings, such as from the SEC or FTC, it is like any other high beta stock about to report earnings.

The availability of expanded weekly options makes the trade more appealing in the event of an adverse move bringing shares below the $61.50 level suggested by the implied volatility, allows some greater flexibility. However, because of the possibility of other events, my preference would be to have this be as short term of a holding as possible, such that if selling puts and seeing a rise in shares after earnings, I would likely sacrifice remaining value on the options and close the position, being happy with whatever quick profits were achieved.

Traditional Stocks: eBay, General Motors, MasterCard, MetLife, Starbucks

Momentum: none

Double Dip Dividend: Texas Instruments (7/29)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Herbalife (7/28 PM), Twitter (7/29 PM), Yelp (7/30 PM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts, in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.

Week in Review – July 21 – 25, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
July 21 – 25,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
3 / 3 0 6 6  / 0 5  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

July 21 – 25, 2014

New purchases for the week beat the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.4% and surpassed the adjusted index by 1.6%

With 150 of the S&P 500 reporting this week it could have been an exciting one, but instead the market just vacillated day in and day out, barely budging from its starting point, at least until today.

There was some excitement today, but it was the wrong kind, at least for most, even though it turned out fairly well for the overall portfolio.

There were only 3 new positions opened this week and they climbed 1.4% higher while the overall market was virtually unchanged on an unadjusted basis and 0.2% lower on an adjusted basis.

Existing positions significantly out-performed the market for the week by an unusually large 0.5%.

Performance of closed positions continue to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.4%. They were up 3.4% out-performing the market by 70.8%. 

Last week, up until Friday, was looking as if it would cap off a disappointing week, particularly compared to the previous week when there was so much trading activity.

This week didn’t have too much trading going on as we headed into Friday, with only two new positions open and no new call contracts written, and only a couple of rollovers. When it was all done, despite having a large drop as the back drop, there were some more rollovers and a number of assignments helping to replenish cash at just the right time.

With the market being basically flat for the week it was actually fortuitous to reclaim some of that cash with the potential to plow it back in without having to deal with across the board higher prices as has been the case the past few weeks as Fridays have closed higher.

It was even more fortuitous that with the large decline seen on Friday the walls didn’t come tumbling down and turning those assignments into expirations.

Instead, it ended up being another good week from a number of perspectives.

But first, the negatives:

There were 5 covered positions that expired without getting rolled over. While I expect that for DOH trades, such as in HFC where the premiums are usually pretty slim and you don’t want to cannibalize the gains through unnecessary commission and buyback expenses, with volatility so low it’s also sometimes difficult to justify the rollover of other positions, such as Lorillard.

Also, no new STO trades were made for the week. That means the idle are still idle. I prefer to see them all working. Otherwise, they’re just stocks.

Now, for the positives.

While only 3 new positions, and one of them just today, they at least performed well. As usual, when there are so few positions to consider, whether they did well or not, you have to ascribe most of that to luck. This time we were lucky.

The existing positions significantly outperformed the market. Most often that’s the case when being able to do lots of rollovers. This time around there were some of those, but there was also price appreciation relative to the overall market.

For me, the best news were the assignments. Actually the best news was the bottom line, but I’m trying not to sound crass.

With prices ending the day near their lows that opens the potential opportunity to have some cash to spend next week at levels other than new highs, especially if there’s some further weakness or even a flat market to open the week.

Next week begins with a moderate number of positions set to expire on Friday. However, that number is not so great that more couldn’t be added to that list, as well as considering the use of some expanded weekly offerings.

With a nice boost to cash reserves I’m also less reluctant to consider new positions, especially with some price drops today. Even with some mild upside to begin the week there still may be some relative bargains to consider.

Among them may even be positions, such as Dow Chemical and eBay, which were assigned today. I especially like seeing some assignments right near their strike prices begin the next week below those prices. It has been quite a while since that has been the case, but in a market that isn’t simply going straight higher, that’s actually a fairly common occurrence and is the source for the accumulation of returns.

For now, it just feels good to have dodged a potential bullet today. Sometimes that luck that I think is so important is also about the timing of the market’s moves. For us the timing of a drop like today’s turned out to be very fortuitous, just as last Friday’s nice gains were perfectly timed.

Can’t remotely take credit for that sort of thing, but it’s occasionally nice to be on the right side of randomness.

 

 







 

 

 





 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   BBY, GM, LVS

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycleKSS, GPS, RIG, RIG

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  EBAY (8/8)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  DG

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  BBY, DOW, EBAY, HFC, JPM, LVS

Calls Expired:   FDO, FDO, GPS, HFC, LO

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: FAST (7/21 $0.25)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  C (7/30 $0.01)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, C, CLF, COH, FCX, FDO, GPS, HFC, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR , RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – July 25, 2014

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 25, 2014 (8:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6 PM EDT and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The possible outcomes for today include:

AssignmentsBBY, EBAY, HFC ($44.50), JPM, LVS

Rollovers: DOW, GPS ($40), RIG

Expirations: FDO ($64.50), FDO ($66), GPS ($42), HFC (46.50), LO

 

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 24, 2014 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 24, 2014 (Close)

Along the lines of yesterday’s thoughts about the absence of market leaders, it’s too bad that advertising revenues aren’t the sort of thing that pick up everyone’s confidence and floats all sectors higher.

If that was the case then Facebook would be this generation’s IBM.

Facebook’s continuing ability to generate ad revenue, especially from mobile devices, is really incredible.

Yesterday was the company’s ninth earnings report since going public and investors have only once not rewarded existing shareholders after the very first time someone expressed negativity about the lack of a mobile strategy way back when.

While good news for Facebook it’s not really clear what their fortunes mean for anyone else.

It’s tempting to believe that increased ad revenues reflect increased optimism by retailers and increased interest by consumers. That could be good news for retailers.

Of course, it could also just mean that more people are on line with Facebook and spending more time when on line on the site, as Facebook ads can generate revenue simply by being served and not always requiring a click to bring in the bucks.

Facebook was one of those companies that I thought about selling puts in advance of earnings, but I rarely want to do so when there is a large advance in share price right before earnings. More often than not that kind of pre-earnings advance is an invitation to tumble after the data is released.

Not so this time around.

While the market has a mild upward bias in the pre-opening futures, it’s not too likely that anyone has to thank Facebook, although other individual stocks, like Twitter, may be getting some benefit by their loose association or resemblance to Facebook.

For things that really matter and are better reflections of the overall economy you have to look to companies like Caterpillar, which reported this morning. Their EPS figures are improving, thanks to large buy backs, which will be increasing. However, revenues were on the light side and projections for next year are on the low side of analyst’s reports.

So what does that mean?

Who knows? Is the economy not growing? Is Caterpillar mis-firing?

A year ago the most celebrated and successful short seller, Jim Chanos, very publicly called Caterpillar his short of the year. Since that time shares are about 25% higher.

The Chairman was called the worst CEO of the year and widely criticized for executing buy backs at high share prices.

This one company just shows that no one really knows, no matter how good their thesis.

Business is not as good as expected, financial optics improving EPS data and the stock just goes higher.

Too bad there aren’t more of those. I’d gladly trade being right on my thesis for boatloads of profits.

I was hoping that this morning’s muted strength would translate into some of those profits, maybe getting a delayed Facebook initiated rally, but that wasn’t to be, as stocks stopped alternating between gains and losses after seven straight sessions. For the broader market while the gains were as small as you could make them, that was enough for another record on the S&P 500.

With next week’s weekly options trading beginning for those companies that don’t have expanded weekly options there was a chance of adding some positions, such as Texas Instruments, which goes ex-dividend next week, but my focus will continue to be finding opportunities for rollover. ‘t many and they were also fleeting.

At the moment there looks like there is the possibility of a fair number of assignments and some rollovers in the making especially if tomorrow holds true to form. That’s because the past seven or so Friday’s have closed positively, giving me some encouragement for this week, which has otherwise been bereft of activity and more importantly, income revenue.