Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – August 30, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was a nice surprise.

I don’t really understand its basis, as the conventional wisdom was that positive consumer economic news was of the kind that didn’t give reason to suspect that interest rates would go higher in September.

While that was happening, what did make sense was that oil had a sharp decline, stocks went higher.

That hasn’t really been the case all through 2016, but yesterday made sense, while 2016 hasn’t.

This morning there appears to be no follow through to yesterday’s strength and you would expect that to continue being the case, at least until Friday morning.

That’s when the Employment Situation Report is released and a really strong number could mean an interest rate increase as early as September.

At the moment, it feels as if that were to be the case, the market might react negatively, as it appears that most everyone has emotionally accepted a December increase, but not any sooner.

For my part, I think that if there are strong numbers on Friday, traders will quickly get over any disappointment and go on toward a strong buying spree.

Then, heading into the end of the year, it will either be disappointment that the economy wasn’t strong enough to support a second rate hike or disappointment that it did.

So, I would love to see a little disappointment now and the rebound after, just to have a chance to lighten up on some positions and move into more cash as the year comes to its end.

2016 has been a good year and I wouldn’t mind freezing it in time by securing some of the profits, while still trying to milk as many option premiums and dividends out from the portfolio.

.

Daily Market Update – August 29, 2016 (Close)

It;s the final week of summer and the confusion about interest rates has now been all cleared up.

That is to say that there should be no confusion about the continuing confusion over the timing of those rate increases and their number during the remainder of 2016.

So that leaves this week’s Employment Situation Report and not much else

That is, unless oil and stocks re-establish their strange relationship, which they seem to have done over the past week or two.

That didn’t seem to be the case this morning as the futures were evolving, but this is likely to be a very quiet week on volume traded and some things may get exaggerated on the light volume.

But as the day started out it became clear that oil and stocks would go their own ways, as oil went lower.

The confusion, however, continued, as there was an indication of increasing consumer participation, but that was interpreted as not leading to an earlier interest rate hike than a single one in December.

In other words, good news was good news, but not for any logical reason.

With a little bit of cash to spend, I wouldn’t mind opening some new positions for the week, but would really love to have a repeat of last week.

Last week there were 2 rollovers and the sale of calls on two uncovered positions, in addition to having opened  a new position.

What was missing last week were any ex-dividend positions.

This week already has 4 ex-dividend positions so there is already some income accounted for, but it would be nice to add to those and especially to put more of those uncovered positions to work.

Last week’s single new position came on the last day of trading for the week, which is something that I don’t often do.

This week there is some considerable uncertainty with Friday’s data release, but I would probably execute any new position trades prior to then, especially if there’s a dividend capture in the equation, as well.

Otherwise, it may be a return to the quiet weeks that have been the hallmark of this summer.

This may, again, just be a good week to hang out at the beach.

.

Daily Market Update – August 29, 2016 (7:30 AM)

It;s the final week of summer and the confusion about interest rates has now been all cleared up.

That is to say that there should be no confusion about the continuing confusion over the timing of those rate increases and their number during the remainder of 2016.

So that leaves this week’s Employment Situation Report and not much else.

That is, unless oil and stocks re-establish their strange relationship, which they seem to have done over the past week or two.

That doesn’t seem to be the case this morning as the futures are evolving, but this is likely to be a very quiet week on volume traded and some things may get exaggerated on the light volume.

With a little bit of cash to spend, I wouldn’t mind opening some new positions for the week, but would really love to have a repeat of last week.

Last week there were 2 rollovers and the sale of calls on two uncovered positions, in addition to having opened  a new position.

What was missing last week were any ex-dividend positions.

This week already has 4 ex-dividend positions so there is already some income accounted for, but it would be nice to add to those and especially to put more of those uncovered positions to work.

Last week’s single new position came on the last day of trading for the week, which is something that I don’t often do.

This week there is some considerable uncertainty with Friday’s data release, but I would probably execute any new position trades prior to then, especially if there’s a dividend capture in the equation, as well.

Otherwise, it may be a return to the quiet weeks that have been the hallmark of this summer.

This may, again, just be a good week to hang out at the beach.

.

Daily Market Update – August 26, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   none

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

.

Daily Market Update – August 25, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The only things moving right now are energy and commodities, as stocks are taking a break.

Today, energy and commodities took a break right alongside stocks.

For the most part earnings haven’t really mattered in the broader picture as most everyone is now just waiting for the reality of an interest rate hike.

You would think that when that action finally comes that there would be a realization that the economy and the stocks that represent that economy would be worth an investment or two.

What could be unfortunate is if everyone also comes to the realization that the increasing price of oil is putting a damper on the party that wants to explode.

Otherwise, there really isn’t much to think about for the rest of 2016.

Of course, the totally unexpected can always happen.

A Trump victory, some unpredictable world events, natural calamities and on and on.

Hopefully, the world will be sedate and kind to everyone, including investors.

For the rest of this week we will be listening to whatever is said in public at Jackson Hole and to what is overheard.

Today, there was nothing to take anyone by surprise during the first day of that meeting and the market traded in a really narrow range.

The curiosity will all be over whether that interest rate increase could possibly come as early as next month.

Janet Yellen will speak on Friday and she may send markets to some new highs if she gives reason to not fear the interest rate increase and whatever other ones may await in 2017.

Lately, she hasn’t been much of a market mover, but should could be this time around, especially if she makes some suggestion that she isn’t interested in continuing in the position under whoever becomes our next President.

If she skips that part of the conversation and simply speaks up the hawkish stance most everyone is now pushing, the market will probably move higher.

If that’s the case, we are setting ourselves up for a classic “sell on the news,” but the news may still be months away.

.

.

Daily Market Update – August 25, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The only things moving right now are energy and commodities, as stocks are taking a break.

For the most part earnings haven’t really mattered in the broader picture as most everyone is now just waiting for the reality of an interest rate hike.

You would think that when that action finally comes that there would be a realization that the economy and the stocks that represent that economy would be worth an investment or two.

What could be unfortunate is if everyone also comes to the realization that the increasing price of oil is putting a damper on the party that wants to explode.

Otherwise, there really isn’t much to think about for the rest of 2016.

Of course, the totally unexpected can always happen.

A Trump victory, some unpredictable world events, natural calamities and on and on.

Hopefully, the world will be sedate and kind to everyone, including investors.

For the rest of this week we will be listening to whatever is said in public at Jackson Hole and to what is overheard.

The curiosity will all be over whether that interest rate increase could possibly come as early as next month.

Janet Yellen will speak on Friday and she may send markets to some new highs if she gives reason to not fear the interest rate increase and whatever other ones may await in 2017.

Lately, she hasn’t been much of a market mover, but should could be this time around, especially if she makes some suggestion that she isn’t interested in continuing in the position under whoever becomes our next President.

.

.

Daily Market Update – August 24, 2016 (Close)

As we approach the middle of the week, all eyes are now on the final 2 days of festivities coming from the beauty of Jackson Hole.

I’ve been there twice, coincidentally at this time of the year, but long before I had any interest in the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s party antics.

The likelihood is that Janet Yellen will say something that supports the notion that an interest rate hike is going to soon be obviously warranted.

The market will probably react positively to those kind of words, but then comes the questions as to what’s next.

What has to come next, in order for the market to move higher is that there is obvious evidence of the consumer again becoming involved in growing the economy.

At the same time there can’t be too much acceleration in the price of oil, while the dollar has to remain in its current range or get a little weaker.

Of course, it also wouldn’t hurt if the interest rate increase was small and that there wasn’t going to be much talk about another increase in the near future.

With all the good things possibly needing to happen to keep stocks moving higher, one thing that isn’t going to be need is competition from bonds.

I don’t think that there will be much to do for me this week as the single expiring position has already been rolled over, although some of the positions that I’ve been hoping to sell calls upon are looking more likely, so I would be very happy to pull that trigger.

That’s so even if it means putting them into suspended animation for a few months, as the low volatility doesn’t offer much in the way of premiums unless time is added into the equation in a meaningful way.

If in that process there’s also a dividend or two to be had and maybe some capital gains on the shares, as well, it is a little more palatable stretching things out.

Otherwise, not so much.

What surprised me today, as oil and the markets continued their recent re-discovery of one another, was the opportunity to rollover positions in the Gold Miners ETF following the big fall in gold.

Those positions have been great performers and consistent revenue creators, so I don’t mind seeing the big falls as they make this into a really long term holding that has generated lots of revenue and now will do so for at least one additional month.

.

Daily Market Update – August 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)

As we approach the middle of the week, all eyes are now on the final 2 days of festivities coming from the beauty of Jackson Hole.

I’ve been there twice, coincidentally at this time of the year, but long before I had any interest in the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s party antics.

The likelihood is that Janet Yellen will say something that supports the notion that an interest rate hike is going to soon by obviously warranted.

The market will probably react positively to those kind of words, but then comes the questions as to what’s next.

What has to come next, in order for the market to move higher is that there is obvious evidence of the consumer againg becoming involved in growing the economy.

At the same time there can’t be too much acceleration in the price of oil, while the dollar has to remain in its current range or get a little weaker.

Of course, it also wouldn’t hurt if the interest rate increase was small and that there wasn’t going to be much talk about another increase in the near future.

With all the good things possibly needing to happen to keep stocks moving higher, one thing that isn’t going to be need is competition from bonds.

I don’t think that there will be much to do for me this week as the single expiring position has already been rolled over, although some of the positions that I’ve been hoping to sell calls upon are looking more likely, so I would be very happy to pull that trigger.

That’s so even if it means putting them into suspended animation for a few months, as the low volatility doesn’t offer much in the way of premiums unless time is added into the equation in a meaningful way.

If in that process there’s also a dividend or two to be had and maybe some capital gains on the shares, as well, it is a little more palatable stretching things out.

Otherwise, not so much.

.

Daily Market Update – August 23, 2016 (Close)

There still isn’t too much on tap for this week as some jurisdictions have already started going back to school and the rest of us are trying to squeeze a last few days out of summer.

The market was higher in the pre-opening following a day yesterday that actually had some volatility, albeit in a pretty tight range.

Today it was just about the same range, but without the volatility, although the market did give up most of its early gain when the final bell tolled.

Yesterday was a great reflection of just how undecided everyone happens to be, as we went up and down all through the day with no real news to account for anything.

It really wasn’t too different today. There was still no commitment from anyone.

While we do have some economic news this week and some more, although relatively unimportant earnings to come, the real news will be made in parsing the words coming from the attendees of the Jackson Hole meeting later in the week.

As the GDP is released on Friday, we will undoubtedly focus on what Janet Yellen says, which is expected to echo what Stanley Fischer said.

That is, we are pretty close to having the conditions to increase interest rates.

Will that be in September is the question for now. A strong GDP might make that the case.

Otherwise, we are quickly approaching the one tear anniversary of the first increase in about 9 years.

I did make one rollover trade yesterday and that leaves nothing else on the table.

No dividend positions, no expiring positions.

Nothing.

I either need to make some trades or have the market move some select stocks higher so that they can start making some money.

I didn’t expect to do very much today, but that has been a recurring theme that I’m not thrilled about these days.

At least there was no disappointment.

Maybe that will come tomorrow.

.

Daily Market Update – August 232, 2016 (9:00 AM)

There still isn’t too much on tap for this week as some jurisdictions have already started going back to school and the rest of us are trying to squeeze a last few days out of summer.

The market is higher in the pre-opening following a day yesterday that actually had some volatility, albeit in a pretty tight range.

Yesterday was a great reflection of just how undecided everyone happens to be, as we went up and down all through the day with no real news to account for anything.

While we do have some economic news this week and some more, although relatively unimportant earnings to come, the real news will be made in parsing the words coming from the attendees of the Jackson Hole meeting later in the week.

As the GDP is released on Friday, we will undoubtedly focus on what Janet Yellen says, which is expected to echo what Stanley Fischer said.

That is, we are pretty close to having the conditions to increase interest rates.

Will that be in September is the question for now. A strong GDP might make that the case.

Otherwise, we are quickly approaching the one tear anniversary of the first increase in about 9 years.

I did make one rollover trade yesterday and that leaves nothing else on the table.

No dividend positions, no expiring positions.

Nothing.

I either need to make some trades or have the market move some select stocks higher so that they can start making some money.

I don’t expect to do very much today, but that has been a recurring theme that I’m not thrilled about these days.

.

Daily Market Update – August 22, 2016 (Close)

There isn’t too much on tap for this week, what with summer winding down.

Although there will be a GDP release to end the week, the real news may come along with that summer ending tradition in Jackson Hole, Wyoming as the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank holds its annual monetary policy symposium.

I wonder why they don’t hold it in Kansas City? At least the Missouri version.

That means that people will be listening to every word and every nuance to get some idea of when the FOMC may finally decide to raise rates.

If you listened to Stanley Fischer, the Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he indicated that the FOMC had pretty much all of the data it needed to do so.

In that case many will be looking for words of validation over the 2 days of the meeting which Janet Yellen skipped last year.

That meeting was a yawner, but it may be different this year, as Janet Yellen is scheduled to give a big speech and there may even be some wonder as to whether she is open to another term.

This week looks as if it will be getting off to a quiet start, continuing the pattern of the past few weeks.

Markets are still within easy reach of surpassing the all time high, which itself was more than 2% above the previously recognized high.

That’s something that has only happened 4 times in history, so this really is a pretty remarkable time.

This week may not be so remarkable, though.

I have some more cash available after the expiration of puts and that looked for a very short while as if it might be joined by cash from the assignment of a single lot of calls set to expire this week.

That is until I decided to keep the position alive by rolling it over in the face of a large decline in the shares today.

The trade off was that I was willing to take another 1.8% in income for an additional 2 weeks if the shares fell less than an additional 4% in that time period.

If it falls more, maybe I can keep the position alive even longer.

While I wouldn’t mind having some additional opportunities to generate income, I like the idea of collecting more cash in the event that we realize that there hasn’t been too much of a reason to have gotten to these new highs.

Beyond that, there’s also that pesky “sell on the news” phenomenon.

Still, while collecting more cash, I wouldn’t mind if this week does bring some more strength, if only to have the opportunity to finally sell some calls on positions that have been tantalizingly close the past few weeks and that have been begging for the opportunity to generate some income.

With no ex-dividend positions this week and now no more rollovers, the only prospects for generating cash this week are to either spend down some of the cash reserve or sell calls on uncovered positions.

I’d prefer the latter, but may be willing to take the former, especially if there is some profit taking early in the week.

Otherwise, I do like some of the earnings related positions highlighted this week, but as the caveat in the weekly article pointed out, I’m only likely to bite in the event of some significant drops after earnings and may be then more inclined to do traditional covered call trades, rather than selling puts, in the event that there is going to be an ex-dividend date near at hand.

.

Daily Market Update – August 22, 2016 (8:30 AM)

There isn’t too much on tap for this week, what with summer winding down.

Although there will be a GDP release to end the week, the real news may come along with that summer ending tradition in Jackson Hole, Wyoming as the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank holds its annual monetary policy symposium.

That means that people will be listening to every word and every nuance to get some idea of when the FOMC may finally decide to raise rates.

If you listened to Stanley Fischer, the Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he indicated that the FOMC had pretty much all of the data it needed to do so.

In that case many will be looking for words of validation over the 2 days of the meeting which Janet Yellen skipped last year.

That meeting was a yawner, but it may be different this year, as Janet Yellen is scheduled to give a big speech and there may even be some wonder as to whether she is open to another term.

This week looks as if it will be getting off to a quiet start, continuing the pattern o0f the past few weeks.

Markets are still within easy reach of surpassing the all time high, which itself was more than 2% above the previously recognized high.

That’s something that has only happened 4 times in history, so this really is a pretty remarkable time.

This week may not be so remarkable, though.

I have some more cash available after the expiration of puts and that looks as if it may be joined by cash from the assignment of a single lot of calls.

While I wouldn’t mind having some additional opportunities to generate income, I like the idea of collecting more cash in the event that we realize that there hasn’t been too much of a reason to have gotten to these new highs.

Beyond that, there’s also that pesky “sell on the news” phenomenon.

Still, while collecting more cash, I wouldn’t mind if this week does bring some more strength, if only to have the opportunity to finally sell some calls on positions that have been tantalizingly close the past few weeks and that have been begging for the opportunity to generate some income.

With no ex-dividend positions this week and no rollovers, the only prospects for generating cash this week are to either spend down some of the cash reserve or sell calls on uncovered positions.

I’d prefer the latter, but may be willing to take the former, especially if there is some profit taking early in the week.

Otherwise, I do like some of the earnings related positions highlighted this week, but as the caveat in the weekly article pointed out, I’m only likely to bite in the event of some significant drops after earnings and may be then more inclined to do traditional covered call trades, rather than selling puts, in the event that there is going to be an ex-dividend date near at hand.

.

Daily Market Update – August 19, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   FAST, MRO (Puts)

The following were ex-dividend this week:   MRO )8/15 $0.05), HFC (8/19 $0.33)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

.

Daily Market Update – August 18, 2016 (Close)

The futures were again pointing to a flat open this morning.

I think I said that yesterday, as well, and could easily have said the same thing just about every morning for the past 7 weeks.

Still, if you look at the net result of the past 7 weeks it’s fairly considerable.

For anyone who remembers, that’s the way it was back in 2007, as well.

There was nothing of great significance going on, only a slow move higher and higher until reaching a top in October 2007.

I’m not even thinking of drawing a parallel and couldn’t even begin to imagine what could be the equivalent catalyst to make things crumble.

Instead, I just want to have an idea of what of insignificance is right around the corner and to which the market will react in one way or another.

Other than interest rates and the price of oil, the world, at least from the view of economists is pretty serene right now.

That’s not to say that it’s all good, just that it’s balmy and quiet out there.

This looks like another week of no trades, but at least there may be an opportunity to get some principal back with the expiration of some short puts on Marathon Oil.

I would still like to keep that position going, though, but if it does finally expire because I’m unable to wring another weekly 1% ROI or more out of it, I would welcome the opportunity to do it again and again.

Otherwise, it may just be more sitting around and wondering alongside everyone else just what is going on.

I was hoping, as the day began yesterday, that a couple of positions were in line to have some calls sold upon them, but they moved a bit out of contention yesterday and the situation remained unchanged today, as did the market for all intents and purposes.

We’ll see what tomorrow brings, but even as the week is still shaping up to be a good one on the basis of net asset value, I do want to generate more income than has been the case this week and do want more and more of those positions being put to work.

There are some more big earnings due this week, but once this week is over, there shouldn’t be too much to shake markets anymore until the next go around, at least from an earnings perspective.

When it will all be over, I think that this earnings season will be judged as being alright, but that doesn’t take into account the less than optimistic guidance just about everyone has served up.

In my mind, that sets us up for some strong moves in a few months as investors are surprised when companies report better than expected numbers, as there has to be something that is making FOMC members believe that an interest rate hike is going to be warranted before 2016 comes to a conclusion.

.

Daily Market Update – August 18, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The futures were again pointing to a flat open this morning.

I think I said that yesterday, as well, and could easily have said the same thing just about every morning for the past 7 weeks.

Still, if you look at the net result of the past 7 weeks it’s fairly considerable.

For anyone who remembers, that’s the way it was back in 2007, as well.

There was nothing of great significance going on, only a slow move higher and higher until reaching a top in October 2007.

I’m not even thinking of drawing a parallel and couldn’t even begin to imagine what could be the equivalent catalyst to make things crumble.

Instead, I just want to have an idea of what of insignificance is right around the corner and to which the market will react in one way or another.

Other than interest rates and the price of oil, the world, at least from the view of economists is pretty serene right now.

That’s not to say that it’s all good, just that it’s balmy and quiet out there.

This looks like another week of no trades, but at least there may be an opportunity to get some principal back with the expiration of some short puts on Marathon Oil.

I would still like to keep that position going, though, but if it does finally expire because I’m unable to wring another weekly 1% ROI or more out of it, I would welcome the opportunity to do it again and again.

Otherwise, it may just be more sitting around and wondering alongside everyone else just what is going on.

I was hoping, as the day began yesterday, that a couple of positions were in line to have some calls sold upon them, but they moved a bit out of contention yesterday.

We’ll see what today brings, but even as the week is still shaping up to be a good one on the basis of net asset value, I do want to generate more income than has been the case this week and do want more and more of those positions being put to work.

There are some more big earnings due this week, but once this week is over, there shouldn’t be too much to shake markets anymore until the next go around, at least from an earnings perspective.

When it will all be over, I think that this earnings season will be judged as being alright, but that doesn’t take into account the less than optimistic guidance just about everyone has served up.

In my mind, that sets us up for some strong moves in a few months as investors are surprised when companies report better than expected numbers, as there has to be something that is making FOMC members believe that an interest rate hike is going to be warranted before 2016 comes to a conclusion.

.