Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – March 30, 2016 (7:30 AM )

Did anyone really expect Janet Yellen to be so dovish yesterday?

Based upon the reaction of markets all around the world, the answer to that question has to be that her tone was really unexpected.

Why investors would really totally disregard a longer term view of that dovishness is curious.

Basically, what Yellen had said was that the US economy, and perhaps at this point, more importantly, world economies weren’t chugging along strongly enough to really warrant what the FOMC has been hoping to do for quite some time.

That can’t really be the kind of news that can sustain a market’s move higher.

Not only is the strength that we have all been expecting to see just not materializing, but it is also pointing out just how flawed either the FOMC’s crystal ball is or just how they’ve been getting ready to implement the wrong strategy.

Obviously, those two are related, but it would make a reasonable person question just how special the FOMC is when it comes to forecasting and setting monetary policy.

The same monkey who can pick stocks better than 90% of all professionals could probably just as well serve on the FOMC.

This morning’s futures are again pointing higher after yesterday’s rally and for the second day in a row, it is beginning to appear as if stocks and oil may go off in their own directions.

Again, as long as that direction takes stocks higher and oil goes lower, I’m all for that.

With this morning’s early rally I would be fine with just being able to see either a rollover or assignment of this week’s lone expiring position, but i think that i would rather get a chance to roll it over and keep collecting the premium.

I still have my eye on some of those positions that are ex-dividend on the Monday of next week, but it is again looking like a very quiet week for trading.

As long as asset value goes higher, especially if keeping up or exceeding the market, while continuing to collect some dividends, I’m OK with that, but would still prefer to do some more active trading.

The passivity is annoying, but again, it really should be the bottom line that’s the ultimate measure and not the ability to feed my beast and make trade after trade.

Although, in a perfect world….you can have it all.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 29, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was as quiet a trading day as we may have seen all year.

The trading range in the DJIA was less than 100 points and there was never any real feeling that things would break out in either direction.

While we have to wait until the end of the week for the Employment Situation Report, we may not have expected to wait that long for things to break out in either direction.

That’s because Janet Yellen was to speak today and over the course of the remainder of the week there will be some other opportunities for other members of the Federal reserve to try and capture the spotlight.

Increasingly, those other members try to put their own spin on things and they aren’t always in line with what used to be a single and unified voice.

That has caused some gyrations over the past couple of years and it seems increasingly so  during the Yellen term.

That likely has nothing to do with Yellen, but more to do with circumstances.

During most of Bernanke’s tenure everyone was pretty much in agreement over what needed to be the direction of interest rates and most everyone was singular in their determination to prevent disaster.

It’s a little different now and I would guess that even if Bernanke was still Chairman of the Federal Reserve, we would be hearing more and more personal o[pinions and dissension being expressed.

This morning, ahead of Chairman Yellen’s comments the market was again flat, as was the world overnight.

Oil, too, was fairly subdued yesterday, but the market didn’t follow it’s changing directions and its net change on the day very closely.

As long as oil may head lower, that’s fine, but if there’s a reason for oil to resume some of the strength it had seen in the previous month, I hope that stocks remember to follow along, even if not entirely rational to do so.

So what happened today?

Yellen was dovish and the market really liked it.

In fact, they liked it so much that the market didn’t even care that oil did go lower.

With no new purchases yesterday, I still am in the market to do something, but may be increasingly looking at some of those positions that are ex-dividend next Monday.

My preference is still to be able to generate some income from selling calls on uncovered positions and do have some in mind, waiting for appropriate bids.

Otherwise, this week may just be a story of conflicting stories and views of the economy while we await jobs news to end the week.

Ultimately, we’ll all be asking why anyone was afraid of a 0.25% interest rate increase.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 29, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was as quiet a trading day as we may have seen all year.

The trading range in the DJIA was less than 100 points and there was never any real feeling that things would break out in either direction.

While we have to wait until the end of the week for the Employment Situation Report, we may not have to wait that long for things to break out in either direction.

That’s because Janet Yellen speaks today and over the course of the remainder of the week there will be some other opportunities for other members of the Federal reserve to try and capture the spotlight.

Increasingly, those other members try to put their own spin on things and they aren’t always in line with what used to be a single and unified voice.

That has caused some gyrations over the past couple of years and it seems increasingly so  during the Yellen term.

That likely has nothing to do with Yellen, but more to do with circumstances.

During most of Bernanke’s tenure everyone was pretty much in agreement over what needed to be the direction of interest rates and most everyone was singular in their determination to prevent disaster.

It’s a little different now and I would guess that even if Bernanke was still Chairman of the Federal Reserve, we would be hearing more and more personal o[pinions and dissension being expressed.

This morning, ahead of Chairman Yellen’s comments the market is again flat, as was the world overnight.

Oil, too, was fairly subdued yesterday, but the market didn’t follow it’s changing directions and its net change on the day very closely.

As long as oil may head lower, that’s fine, but if there’s a reason for oil to resume some of the strength it had seen in the previous month, i hope that stocks remember to follow along, even if not entirely rational to do so.

With no new purchases yesterday, I still am in the market to do something, but may be increasingly looking at some of those positions that are ex-dividend next Monday.

My preference is still to be able to generate some income from selling calls on uncovered positions and do have some in mind, waiting for appropriate bids.

Otherwise, this week may just be a story of conflicting stories and views of the economy while we await jobs news to end the week.

Ultimately, we’ll all be asking why anyone was afraid of a 0.25% interest rate increase.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 28, 2016 (Close)

With markets re-opening today after celebration of Good Friday, much of the world’s markets were still closed for Easter Monday.

Last week, there was almost no economic news to have to think about, but instead everyone was focused on the horrible events in Brussels and now we began the week wondering about more tragedy in Pakistan, only to have the afternoon interrupted by a brief scare in the US Capitol.

But through it all, the market barely budged today, taking its cue from last week’s dispassionate trading.

Somehow markets were able to essentially ignore last week’s non-economic news and when faced with the news that the GDP, which was announced on Friday as markets were closed, was better than expected, still refused to act or react in an . overboard fashion.

This week we will have the monthly Employment Situation Report and another good month, especially if coupled with some increasing wage growth, could signal that some of the disparate voices among the Federal Reserve may be right.

What they may be right about is that the economy warrants an increase in interest rates now, rather than later.

That may be somewhat different from the message Janet Yellen had recently sent, as the Federal Reserve Governors are getting less and less reserved about voicing their opinions, even when perceived as counter to the Chairman.

The once unquestioned Chairman.

This week looked as if it would get started where so many recent trading sessions have begun the day.

Flat. And it stayed that way the entire day, trading in less than a 100 point range on the DJIA.

While we do await Friday’s news there will be plenty of opportunities to hear from some of those Federal Reserve people, so we’ll see what they can stir up.

In the meantime, if the Employment Situation Report numbers are strong, we may find out fairly soon whether we’re back to good news being bad and bad news being good.

Also, last week gave some indication that stocks and oil may be easing up their tight association of late, so we’ll see whether the market can continue to withstand any of the recent weakness in oil. Today, some of that disassociation continued.

My goal this week is like most.

I just want to generate some income.

With some ex-dividend positions this week and an expiring position, I wouldn’t mind opening some new positions, but feel less of the need to do so.

As has been the case for what seems like the longest time, I’d love to see some market rally bring some uncovered positions closer to getting some cover and making them contributing members to the portfolio.

With lots of energy positions that has been a difficult goal, but as long as fundamentals don’t seem to matter in the energy sector, there’s always that chance.

For now, I hope that stocks and energy continue traveling together just to have some of those income opportunities spread more broadly, but I expect that this week will end up being a fairly quiet one from a personal trading perspective.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 28, 2016 (9:00 AM)

With markets re-opening today after celebration of Good Friday, much of the world’s markets are still closed for Easter Monday.

Last week, there was almost no economic news to have to think about, but instead everyone was focused on the horrible events in Brussels and now we begin the week wondering about more tragedy in Pakistan.

Somehow markets were able to essentially ignore last week’s news and were faced with the news that the GDP, which was announced on Friday as markets were closed, was better than expected.

This week we will have the monthly Employment Situation Report and another good month, especially if coupled with some increasing wage growth, could signal that some of the disparate voices among the Federal Reserve may be right.

What they may be right about is that the economy warrants an increase in interest rates now, rather than later.

That may be somewhat different from the message Janet Yellen had recently sent, as the Federal Reserve Governors are getting less and less reserved about voicing their opinions, even when perceived as counter to the Chairman.

The once unquestioned Chairman.

This week looks as if it will get started where so many recent trading sessions have begun the day.

Flat.

While we do await Friday’s news there will be plenty of opportunities to hear from some of those Federal Reserve people, so we’ll see what they can stir up.

In the meantime, if the Employment Situation Report numbers are strong, we may find out fairly soon whether we’re back to good news being bad and bad news being good.

Also, last week gave some indication that stocks and oil may be easing up their tight association of late, so we’ll see whether the market can continue to withstand any of the recent weakness in oil.

My goal this week is like most.

I just want to generate some income.

With some ex-dividend positions this week and an expiring position, I wouldn’t mind opening some new positions, but feel less of the need to do so.

As has been the case for what seems like the longest time, I’d love to see some market rally bring some uncovered positions closer to getting some cover and making them contributing members to the portfolio.

With lots of energy positions that has been a difficult goal, but as long as fundamentals don’t seem to matter in the energy sector, there’s always that chance.

For now, I hope that stocks and energy continue traveling together just to have some of those income opportunities spread more broadly, but I expect that this week will end up being a fairly quiet one from a personal trading perspective.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM tonight and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  none

Expirations:  MRO

The following were ex-dividend this week:   none

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  CY (3/29 $0.11), DOW (3/29 $0.48), EMC (3/30 $0.11)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 23, 2016 (Close)

When yesterday morning began, there was some reason to suspect that the calm expected for the remainder of this trading shortened week wouldn’t materialize.

Somehow, though, markets managed to pull it all together, even as man made disaster was at work.

This morning appeared to be another day of calm, although the full reckoning of what such a tragedy means in terms of disruption has probably not been calculated aside from the obvious sectors.

The hospitality and travel sectors were in focus yesterday, but other areas of the economy are at risk the longer heightened levels of security have to be maintained.

If, however, the rapid recovery in France, from their senseless tragedy nearly a year ago is any template, the recovery is fairly fast, at least on non-human terms.

This morning we heard of lock ups and enhanced security in Belgium and likely in other places to come, as well.

But life and work continue as the greatest and most overt signs of victory against those that would seek to tear down, intimidate and terrorize.

With this morning likely to be a quiet one, I looked forward to having just 2 days left for trading this week, but now, after the day is done, I wish that there were still 2 more days of trading to come.

All in all, it wasn’t really a bad day for the market, especially considering that oil dropped nearly 5%. Based on what had been happening with previous large moves, we got off pretty easily.

That is unless you had oil or commodities in over-supply in your portfolio, such as having added to your position this week.

Ahem.

With 2 new positions opened and one set for expiration this week, there was still some chance of more trading opportunity, but it wasn’t going to be too likely that i was going to be adding any new positions at this point.

Now it’s certainly less so, but so is the chance of a rollover, as the energy position expiring this week really took a big hit today.

With some ex-dividend positions next week, although none this week, there’s a little less pressure to create sources of income, but I’d still like to have that opportunity and wouldn’t be overly resistant.

Still, despite volatility dropping, I would also continue to welcome any opportunity to cover some of those uncovered positions, even it continues to mean longer term option expiration dates.

Waiting for shares to get assigned is much more palatable if you at least know that there’s some additional premium attached to that position while you do wait.

If there are dividends along the way, then even better.

However, it does take some marked broad moves higher or relative outperformance by individual positions for that to become the case and this week may not be the week for that to happen.

That won’t stop me from watching out for an increasingly rare chance this week, though.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 23, 2016 (7:30 AM)

When yesterday morning began, there was some reason to suspect that the calm expected for the remainder of this trading shortened week wouldn’t materialize.

Somehow, though, markets managed to pull it all together, even as man made disaster was at work.

This morning appears to be another day of calm, although the full reckoning of what such a tragedy means in terms of disruption has probably not been calculated aside from the obvious sectors.

The hospitality and travel sectors were in focus yesterday, but other areas of the economy are at risk the longer heightened levels of security have to be maintained.

If, however, the rapid recovery in France, from their senseless tragedy nearly a year ago is any template, the recovery is fairly fast, at least on non-human terms.

This morning we hear of lock ups and enhanced security in Belgium and likely in other places to come, as well.

But life and work continue as the greatest and most overt signs of victory against those that would seek to tear down, intimidate and terrorize.

With this morning likely to be a quiet one, I look forward to having just 2 days left for trading this week.

With 2 new positions opened and one set for expiration this week, there is still some chance of more trading opportunity, but it’s very unlikely that I’ll be adding any new positions at this point.

With some ex-dividend positions next week, although none this week, there’s a little less pressure to create sources of income, but I’d still like to have that opportunity and wouldn’t be overly resistant.

Still, despite volatility dropping, I would also continue to welcome any opportunity to cover some of those uncovered positions, even it continues to mean longer term option expiration dates.

Waiting for shares to get assigned is much more palatable if you at least know that there’s some additional premium attached to that position while you do wait.

If there are dividends along the way, then even better.

However, it does take some marked broad moves higher or relative outperformance by individual positions for that to become the case and this week may not be the week for that to happen.

That won’t stop me from watching out for a rare chance, though.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 22, 2016 (Close)

There wasn’t too much reason to suspect that there would be a lot going on this week.

With an Easter Holiday shortened trading week and very little on the economic agenda, it looked as if it just might be another week of oil dictating where things were heading.

Last week, though, gave some suggestion that maybe oil and stocks were thinking of going their own ways.

As long as they continued following each other higher, I was all for their dalliance, but disconnecting as oil heads higher isn’t the best after such broad declines over such an extended period of time.

This morning, however, as we should always be prepared whenever we think nothing is likely to happen, something happened.

Natural terror is one thing, but this time it was another incidence of man made terror.

As news was unfolding early this morning in Brussels of the carnage wreaked by terrorists, markets were fairly calm, as they tend to be when such terrible things occur.

When you consider how irrational markets can be in the short term, it’s really amazing how calm and collected they can be in the face of real uncertainty.

The kind that really matters.

Even across the continent where the carnage is real and the fear must be with everyone other than those who would bring the harm, markets are underplaying the morning’s horrible events.

Ultimately, that may be every bit as good of an antidote to terrorism as any proposed substantive erosion of privacy and rights.

This morning there wasn’t too much question where most attention would be centered.

With a single new position opened yesterday, I did have a trade out for another, as well and was hoping to still be able to make that trade today.

No one was more surprised than me to see it actually happen.

Otherwise, though, I expect it to be quiet on my end of things and don’t expect very much opportunity to find cover for uncovered positions.

With one position to roll over this week and a low likelihood of making any additional new position trades, I’ll be glued to the news for the next 2 days and hopeful that justice may arrive in short order.

As that great Harry Chapin song “Taxi” had said: 

“There was not much more for us to talk about…”

That summed it up this morning and as the rest of the day unfolded, too.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 22, 2016 (8:00 AM)

There wasn’t too much reason to suspect that there would be a lot going on this week.

With an Easter Holiday shortened trading week and very little on the economic agenda, it looked as if it just might be another week of oil dictating where things were heading.

Last week, though, gave some suggestion that maybe oil and stocks were thinking of going their own ways.

As long as they continued following each other higher, I was all for their dalliance, but disconnecting as oil heads higher isn’t the best after such broad declines over such an extended period of time.

This morning, however, as we should always be prepared whenever we think nothing is likely to happen, something happened.

Natural terror is one thing, but this time it was another incidence of man made terror.

As news was unfolding early this morning in Brussels of the carnage wreaked by terrorists, markets were fairly calm, as they tend to be when such terrible things occur.

Even across the continent where the carnage is real and the fear must be with everyone other than those who would bring the harm, markets are underplaying the morning’s horrible events.

Ultimately, that may be every bit as good of an antidote to terrorism as any proposed substantive erosion of privacy and rights.

This morning there’s not too much question where most attention will be centered.

With a single new position opened yesterday, I did have a trade out for another, as well and may still look to make that trade.

Otherwise, though, I expect it to be quiet on my end of things and don’t expect very much opportunity to find cover for uncovered positions.

With nothing to roll over this week and a low likelihood of making any additional new position trades, I’ll be glued to the news and hopeful that justice may arrive in short order.

As that great Harry Chapin song “Taxi” had said: 

“There was not much more for us to talk about…”

That sums it up this morning.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 18, 2016 (Close)

There’s not too much going on this week on the economic news front except for the release of the GDP on Friday.

Coincidentally, markets will be closed on Friday so any kind of reaction may be a little bit delayed, if at all.

After the FOMC Statement release this past week, the expectations for a robust GDP may be lessened.

In that case, a weaker GDP or at least one in line with lessened expectations may result in some market enthusiasm the following week, if anyone can still remember.

However, a better than expected GDP may lead some to believe that the next interest rate hike may come sooner than they interpreted the FOMC’s comment to suggest.

What the FOMC didn’t do was to say that there would be a delay in getting the next rate hike. What they did say, or at least what Janet Yellen said, was that there would likely not be as many rate hikes in 2016 as had been originally thought.

People hear what they want to hear and what they heard was that the next rate hike would be delayed.

This morning the market was understandably flat and it’s likely that the association with the price of oil will continue until that point that someone realizes that there’s little rationale for doing so.

Unfortunately, that may mean that markets won’t recover all that was lost as they followed oil lower, but as it stands, the market is at least at a break-even for 2016 as we get ready to bring a close to March.

Today wasn’t going to be that day, though, as there was no theme and almost no range of trading.

With an assignment last week, but no ex-dividend positions this week and no positions set for expiration, I would still like to make some trades to have some chance of generating income this week and will be again considering the energy sector.

The one trade was more on the speculative side, but as long as that sector specific volatility remains high, even after the gains seen in the energy sector, there is some added cushion from the rich option premiums to offset a portion of the risk that is still there.

I don’t think that i would get overly aggressive or spend too much in that area, but it continues to look as if there is additional opportunity there and in related companies.

Otherwise, there’s not too much reason to expect much of anything as the world is generally quiet and preparing for spring break of some sort everywhere that counts.

With markets closed on Friday and with volatility falling, there may be some reason to consider the use of an extended weekly option to get some additional premium, particularly if a dividend may also be involved.

Otherwise, I expect little in the way of personal fireworks.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 18, 2016 (9:00 AM)

There’s not too much going on this week on the economic news front except for the release of the GDP on Friday.

Coincidentally, markets will be closed on Friday so any kind of reaction may be a little bit delayed, if at all.

After the FOMC Statement release this past week, the expectations for a robust GDP may be lessened.

In that case, a weaker GDP or at least one in line with lessened expectations may result in some market enthusiasm the following week, if anyone can still remember.

However, a better than expected GDP may lead some to believe that the next interest rate hike may come sooner than they interpreted the FOMC’s comment to suggest.

What the FOMC didn’t do was to say that there would be a delay in getting the next rate hike. What they did say, or at least what Janet Yellen said, was that there would likely not be as many rate hikes in 2016 as had been originally thought.

People hear what they want to hear and what they heard was that the next rate hike would be delayed.

This morning the market is understandably flat and it’s likely that the association with the price of oil will continue until that point that someone realizes that there’s little rationale for doing so.

Unfortunately, that may mean that markets won’t recover all that was lost as they followed oil lower, but as it stands, the market is at least at a break-even for 2016 as we get ready to bring a close to March.

With an assignment last week, but no ex-dividend positions this week and no positions set for expiration, I would like to make some trades to have some chance of generating income this week and will be again considering the energy sector.

I don’t think that i would get overly aggressive or spend too much in that area, but it continues to look as if there is additional opportunity there and in related companies.

Otherwise, there’s not too much reason to expect much of anything as the world is generally quiet and preparing for spring break of some sort everywhere that counts.

With markets closed on Friday and with volatility falling, there may be some reason to consider the use of an extended weekly option to get some additional premium, particularly if a dividend may also be involved.

Otherwise, I expect little in the way of personal fireworks.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 18, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  GM

Expirations:  none

The following were ex-dividend this week:  BBY (3/15 $0.28), BBY (3/15 $0.45 Special Dividend), JOY (3/17 $0.01), LVS (3/18 $0.72)

The following are ex-dividend next week:   none

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 EDT.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 17, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday the focus was much more on the FOMC and Chairman Yellen.

The take home message was that the economy wasn’t growing as fast as had been hoped and the world’s economies are even worse.

As a result, the FOMC believes that it will have fewer interest rate increases in 2016 than it had planned.

Somehow, that’s good news.

I understand why it may offer some more time for people to get cheap money to play with, but the increases that the FOMC had in mind weren’t going to leave money more expensive for those borrowing, in any real terms.

Instead, a less than optimistic picture was painted, but traders liked it.

This morning, as it all sank in, stock futures had been all over the place.

They were moderately higher and then equally moderately lower, both bordering on triple digits.

In the meantime, stocks looked as if they might spend another day diverging from oil, which was again moderately higher.

Sooner or later I expected that had to happen, but as long as oil is going higher, I’d have liked to have seen some delay in everyone coming to their senses.

Based on the futures inability to get on a single frame of mind, I thought that today may very well be a day of confusion as various sides try to figure out whether yesterday’s FOMC news was good or bad.

Still, with yesterday’s close, the DJIA was at its highest for 2016, so it’s as if the first 6 weeks of trading never even happened.

It’s as if 2016 hasn’t even happened yet.

Ultimately, it seems that stocks decided to rejoin with oil and yesterday’s FOMC decision and rationale for the decision was still being embraced.

Although the market closed beneath its high for the day, the S&P 500 is now just very slightly in the red for the year as the DJIA is in the black.

Who would have thought?

Based on the number of trades that I’ve made in the first 10 weeks of 2016, you would be excused for believing 2016 had never even started yet.

Hopefully, that will change before the next interest rate hike.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 17, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday the focus was much more on the FOMC and Chairman Yellen.

The take home message was that the economy wasn’t growing as fast as had been hoped and the world’s economies are even worse.

As a result, the FOMC believes that it will have fewer interest rate increases in 2016 than it had planned.

Somehow, that’s good news.

I understand why it may offer some more time for people to get cheap money to play with, but the increases that the FOMC had in mind weren’t going to leave money more expensive for those borrowing, in any real terms.

Instead, a less than optimistic picture was painted, but traders liked it.

This morning, as it all sinks in, stock futures had been all over the place.

They were moderately higher and then equally moderately lower, both bordering on triple digits.

In the meantime, stocks looked as if they might spend another day diverging from oil, which was again moderately higher.

Sooner or later I expected that had to happen, but as long as oil is going higher, I’d have liked to have seen some delay in everyone coming to their senses.

Based on the futures inability to get on a single frame of mind, today may very well be a day of confusion as various sides try to figure out whether yesterday’s FOMC news was good or bad.

Still, with yesterday’s close, the DJIA was at its highest for 2016, so it’s as if the first 6 weeks of trading never even happened.

It’s as if 2016 hasn’t even happened yet.

Based on the number of trades that I’ve made in the first 10 weeks of 2016, you would be excused for believing 2016 had never even started yet.

Hopefully, that will change before the next interest rate hike.

.

.