Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – December 9,  2015  (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was the second consecutive day of unexpected large losses.

Both of those days had attempts to rally and both sputtered out, with neither of those days really being foretold by nervousness in futures trading.

This morning’s futures are just mildly lower, but they don’t seem to be getting much in the way of encouragement from some potentially big merger news of two industrial and chemical giants.

Those two companies, Dow Chemical and DuPont are each soaring in the pre-opening, but the contagion isn’t spreading very much, at least not yet.

Cynics may look at the proposed merger as being one of desperation as commodity prices are continuing to suffer far longer than anyone would have imagined. Other cynics might point to the activists at the doors of both companies.

Whatever the reason for the merger, it’s not an idea that hasn’t been entertained before, but for now, no one really seems to see it as anything but a couple of companies and not indicative of a bigger picture.

The bigger picture usually gets people speculating about merger mania and other opportunities. In a way, the lack of early speculation as to where this kind of merger could lead markets is a good thing, as most of the speculation that arises turns out to be baseless.

Right now, we don’t need any speculation, especially the baseless kind.

Following Monday’s decline, I still didn’t have a very good feeling about the next stop. That’s counter to about the last 10 weeks, especially when the week opened on a down or flat note.

During that time period I was a fairly active buyer on early week weakness, but this time it just felt a little bit different to me.

Yesterday was the same.

Another big drop in markets, but still no real conviction that it was a good time to step in and pick up some bargains.

The issue, at least in my mind at the moment, is that i can’t identify any kind of catalyst that might lift markets until earnings start all over again in January 2016.

I still might be willing to look at some short term opportunities in the event that the market shows some stability, but I’m not overly excited about the prospects of taking on additional risk right now.

With next week’s FOMC meeting and most everyone expecting a decision to raise rates, it feels as if the response to that has already been built into markets, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if some more wind was let out of its sails.

If that’s the case, I don’t want to add any more weight to the portfolio.

This may be the kind of quiet week that hasn’t been seen in a few months, but I’m still hopeful that the positions with expirations this week will still remain in contention either for assignment or rollover.

So far, they’ve held up better than the overall market, but each day has been a new challenge lately.

Daily Market Update – December 8,  2015  (Close)

Yesterday was another unexpected day in a series of unexpected and largely unwarranted kind of days.

To some degree OPEC’s continued inability to actually act like a cartel helped to grease the slide, as may be appropriate.

We’re still in that odd kind of market that doesn’t look at the prospects of cheap energy as being bullish for worldwide economic growth. While that would be understandable if there was also a worldwide decrease in the appetite for energy resources, that’s really not the case and you would be excused for believing that people would be celebrating a production side decrease in pricing.

But that continues to not be the case, as the market has been moving in the same direction as oil has been going and OPEC’s decision to not cut production could only send prices lower or at the very least keep them at these low levels.

But most expected the lack of any agreement from OPEC, so it doesn’t make too much sense that energy prices would slide hard or that markets would follow.

Instead, it may simply be that an upcoming interest rate hike is now fully discounted and digested and that the market now needs something tangible upon which to act or to which to respond.

If that’s the case, we may not have much of anything until earnings start all over again in about a month, even as this cycle is still not complete.

Yesterday’s decline would have seemed like an invitation to go bargain hunting, but I didn’t get a very good feeling from the trading yesterday. Even with OPEC as a possible reason for the decline, it just never felt as if there was a floor below, although the market did recover from its lows and did so in a significant way, even though still finishing down by more than 100 points.

This morning, the futures continued to point to more losses, although not as large as yesterday’s, but still enough to make note of and to have some concern.

That concern was well warranted, as the market closed not too far from its lows for the day, even though it did try to ease that loss, but to no avail.

For some reason, those positions that are expiring this week still seemed to have fared pretty well following the two large declines to start this week. They are all still reasonable prospects for either rollover or assignment.

With a number of positions already set to expire next week, which will also be the week of the FOMC decision, I’d prefer not to add to that list of uncovered positions,

I would much rather see positions assigned this week, as the number of ex-dividend positions can serve as a proxy for income generation, rather than through the sale of option contracts. I’d like to be able to add cash to reserves, instead.

However, if faced with rollover, I would certainly much rather do that than to see expirations, other than for the single short put position.

In that event, where possible, I would look for expirations other than the December 18, 2015 month ending contract, in an effort to continue the diversification in expiration dates that currently exists.

That kind of diversification is a good way to protect a portfolio from singular events that can be unpredictable in magnitude or direction, such as may be the case next Wednesday.

For tomorrow, just as it was again the case today and yesterday, it’s likely to be more watching and less trading and hoping that all expiring positions stay in contention.

Daily Market Update – December 8,  2015  (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was another unexpected day in a series of unexpected and largely unwarranted kind of days.

To some degree OPEC’s continued inability to actually act like a cartel helped to grease the slide, as may be appropriate.

We’re still in that odd kind of market that doesn’t look at the prospects of cheap energy as being bullish for worldwide economic growth. While that would be understandable if there was also a worldwide decrease in the appetite for energy resources, that’s really not the case and you would be excused for believing that people would be celebrating a production side decrease in pricing.

But that continues to not be the case, as the market has been moving in the same direction as oil has been going and OPEC’s decision to not cut production could only send prices lower or at the very least keep them at these low levels.

But must expected the lack of any agreement from OPEC, so it doesn’t make too much sense that energy prices would slide hard or that markets would follow.

Instead, it may simply be that an upcoming interest rate hike is now fully discounted and digested and that the market now needs something tangible upon which to act or to which to respond.

If that’s the case, we may not have much of anything until earnings start all over again in about a month, even as this cycle is still not complete.

Yesterday’s decline would have seemed like an invitation to go bargain hunting, but I didn’t get a very good feeling from the trading yesterday. Even with OPEC as a possible reason for the decline, it just never felt as if there was a floor below, although the market did recover from its lows and did so in a significant way, even though still finishing down by more than 100 points.

This morning, the futures continue to point to more losses, although not as large as yesterday’s, but still enough to make note of and to have some concern.

For some reason, those positions that are expiring this week seemed to fare pretty well during yesterday’s sell-off and are all still reasonable prospects for either rollover or assignment.

With a number of positions already set to expire next week, which will also be the week of the FOMC decision, I’d prefer not to add to that list.

I would much rather see positions assigned this week, as the number of ex-dividend positions can serve as a proxy for income generation, rather than through the sale of option contracts. I’d like to be able to add cash to reserves, instead.

However, if faced with rollover, I would certainly much rather do that than to see expirations, other than for the single short put position.

In that event, where possible, I would look for expirations other than the December 18, 2015 month ending contract, in an effort to continue the diversification in expiration dates that currently exists.

That kind of diversification is a good way to protect a portfolio from singular events that can be unpredictable in magnitude or direction, such as may be the case next Wednesday.

For today, it’s likely to be more watching and less trading, as was the case yesterday and hoping that all expiring positions stay in contention.

Daily Market Update – December 7,  2015  (Close)

Following a more than impressive 350+ point gain on Friday following some good economic news in the form of a healthy Employment Situation Report, the market basically indicated that it was ready to accept what will likely occur next week.

That is, the FOMC, which has obviously been chomping at the bit, will announce the first interest rate hike in nearly a decade.

When Janet Yellen says that she can’t wait for that first rate hike, you know that data driven or not, it’s going to be happening really soon.

That positive response on Friday to the strong likelihood of an interest rate increase followed a week that was full of paradoxical activity during which time you would have had no idea of how the market would respond to anything.

With all of the large climbs and falls, the market finished unchanged, but it clearly wasn’t liking what it was hearing until Friday morning, even though there really wasn’t anything bad being said earlier in the week.

This week there’s not too much going on, although there is a JOLTS report, which Janet Yellen has indicated in the past is an important metric. She went so far as to say it was the most important metric, although it’s possible that the value or importance of various metrics will change as the economy itself changes.

We’ll see whether it confirms what we all now expect to occur next week.

With no assignments last week, I don’t have very much free cash, but will still be willing to borrow from myself, in a form of margin lending.

If doing that, as I have done over the course of about the past 3 months, the real intention is to use the money on a trade that I think has a high chance of being opened and closed during the course of that single week.

With a number of positions set to expire this week, part of the willingness to borrow from myself will be based on what I perceive also as the likelihood that some of the existing positions may have a chance of being assigned, as well.

Surprisingly, despite a nearly 120 point decline today, those expiring positions all held up well today.

With that likelihood at least still being possible, I’m not closing my mind to the idea of spending some money, although I wasn’t ready to go fishing today as it wasn’t really clear what the weakness was due to, nor whether it might continue.

However, I’d be very happy if this week was similar to last week, even if it didn’t include the new positions being added.

With 6 ex-dividend positions again this week and the possibility of being able to have some rollovers or even assignments, my need for income generation isn’t being as strong as it might be on a week when there’s little going on with existing positions.

As with most of the past few months, I’m more inclined to want to spend that money of the market begins the week with some weakness, but wouldn’t be talked out of spending any if the market trades in a flat manner.

This morning’s futures looked to be flat, so I was on the lookout for any opportunities, but more and more those futures aren’t telling us very much about what the opening will even look like, much less the close and today was another good example

Daily Market Update – December 7,  2015  (9:00 AM)

Following a more than impressive 350+ point gain on Friday following some good economic news in the form of a healthy Empoyment Situation Report, the market basically indicated that it was ready to accept what will likely occur next week.

That is, the FOMC, which has obviously been chomping at the bit, will announce the first interest rate hike in nearly a decade.

When Janet Yellen says that she can’t wait for that first rate hike, you know that data driven or not, it’s going to be happening really soon.

That positive response on Friday to the strong likelihood of an interest rate increase followed a week that was full of paradoxical activity during which time yoou would have had no idea of how the market would respond to anything.

With all of the large climbs and falls, the market finished unchanged, but it clearly wasn’t liking what it was hearing until Friday morning, even though tehre really wasn’t anything bad being said earlier in the week.

This week there’s not too much going on, although there is a JOLTS report, which Janet Yellen has indicated in the past is an important metric.She went so far as to say it was the most important metric, although it’s possible that the value or importance of various metrics will change as the economy itself changes.

We’ll see whether it confirms what we all now expect to occur next week.

With no assignments last week, I don’t have very much free cash, but will still be willing to borrow from myself, in a form of margin lending.

If doing that, as I have done over the course of about the past 3 months, the real intention is to use the money on a trade that I think has a high chance of being opened and closed during the course of that single week.

With a number of positions set to expire this week, part of the willingness to borrow from myself will be based on what I perceive also as the likelihood that some of the existing positions may have a chance of being assigned, as well.

With that likelihood at least being possible, I’m not closing my mind to the idea of spending some money.

However, I’d be very happy if this week was similar to last week, even if it didn’t include the new positions being added.

With 6 ex-dividend positions again this week and the possibility of being able to have some rollovers or even assignments, my need for income generation isn’t being as strong as it might be on a week when there’s little going on with existing positions.

As with most of the past few months, I’m more inclined to want to spend that money of the market begins the week with some weakness, but wouldn’t be talked out of spending any if the market trades in a flat manner.

This morning’s futures look to be flat, so I’ll be on the lookout for any opportunities, but more and more those futures aren’t telling us very much about what the opening will even look like, much less the close.

Daily Market Update – December 4,  2015  (7:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  STX (puts)

Expirations: BBBY, COH, IP

The following were ex-dividend this week:  HAL (12/1 $0.18), MOS (12/1 $0.28), BAC (12/2 $0.05), COH (12/2 $0.34), HFC (12/2 $0.33), WMT (12/2 $0.49)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  BBY (12/8 $0.23), HPE (12/7 $0.06), HPQ (12/7 $0.12), KSS (12/7 $0.45), M (12/9 $0.36), NEM (12/11 $0.025)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EST.

Daily Market Update – December 3,  2015  (7:30 AM)

Yesterday’s large loss was not much more than an offset to the prior day’s large gain.

Neither really had much reason for having occurred.

As terrible as yesterday was, the news unfolding from California trivialized anything from the market.

But here we are the following morning and with what is certainly grim and tragic news, with political or ideological connections, if any, still left to be identified, the market is ready to get right back to where it had been when the world was well.

The morning’s futures trading, as Janet Yellen gets ready to make more comments, this time to Congress, is again very optimistic, although it really can’t be clear as to what the market may be responding toward.

With every indication being that the FOMC will be increasing interest rates and with Janet Yellen indicating that she couldn’t wait for that first interest rate increase, it seems odd that the market, which was showing signs that it was finally ready to accept that fact, would sell off.

If anything, the pattern would be to wait until the rumor or the anticipation became the reality.

That definitely wasn’t the case yesterday, but may turn out to be the case today, just as it may have been the case on Tuesday.

The lack of consistency is maddening, though.

It’s not as if there’s any kind of rational explanation for the back and forth movements. It’s not as if any of it has been based in reality or in data.

Yet, we have an FOMC that has long been assuring us that it will be data driven and here we are, seemingly at the precipice of a decision and with some heavy handed hinting, yet it’s not really clear that the data exists to warrant the decision.

If it actually comes next week.

It’s hard to know what the reaction might be if that decision doesn’t come next week.

We’ve alternated between relief rallies of no interest rate increases to disappointments, sometimes all in a single day.

The real key will likely be coming with tomorrow’s Employment Situation report.

Good numbers should make it easier for the FOMC to justify a decision to act. Bad numbers would make it harder, but the action could still come, as it appears that even a dovish Janet Yellen wants to strike.

Today, we watch, and maybe take advantage of any price moves higher, although it would have been much better if there was a similar move yesterday and we could have gotten the benefit of an additive effect.

Otherwise, it’s just tighten your belts and wait for tomorrow and then really tighten up as next week unfolds.

Daily Market Update – December 3,  2015  (7:30 AM)

Yesterday’s large loss was not much more than an offset to the prior day’s large gain.

Neither really had much reason for having occurred.

As terrible as yesterday was, the news unfolding from California trivialized anything from the market.

But here we are the following morning and with what is certainly grim and tragic news, with political or ideological connections, if any, still left to be identified, the market is ready to get right back to where it had been when the world was well.

The morning’s futures trading, as Janet Yellen gets ready to make more comments, this time to Congress, is again very optimistic, although it really can’t be clear as to what the market may be responding toward.

With every indication being that the FOMC will be increasing interest rates and with Janet Yellen indicating that she couldn’t wait for that first interest rate increase, it seems odd that the market, which was showing signs that it was finally ready to accept that fact, would sell off.

If anything, the pattern would be to wait until the rumor or the anticipation became the reality.

That definitely wasn’t the case yesterday, but may turn out to be the case today, just as it may have been the case on Tuesday.

The lack of consistency is maddening, though.

It’s not as if there’s any kind of rational explanation for the back and forth movements. It’s not as if any of it has been based in reality or in data.

Yet, we have an FOMC that has long been assuring us that it will be data driven and here we are, seemingly at the precipice of a decision and with some heavy handed hinting, yet it’s not really clear that the data exists to warrant the decision.

If it actually comes next week.

It’s hard to know what the reaction might be if that decision doesn’t come next week.

We’ve alternated between relief rallies of no interest rate increases to disappointments, sometimes all in a single day.

The real key will likely be coming with tomorrow’s Employment Situation report.

Good numbers should make it easier for the FOMC to justify a decision to act. Bad numbers would make it harder, but the action could still come, as it appears that even a dovish Janet Yellen wants to strike.

Today, we watch, and maybe take advantage of any price moves higher, although it would have been much better if there was a similar move yesterday and we could have gotten the benefit of an additive effect.

Otherwise, it’s just tighten your belts and wait for tomorrow and then really tighten up as next week unfolds.

Daily Market Update – December 2,  2015  (Close)

Yesterday’s large gain was really a surprise, when you consider that no one should be certain about Friday’s Employment Situation Report.

Nor should anyone feel certain about the FOMC decision the following week.

But more importantly, no one should feel certain about how the market will react to any of the news that we’re going to get within the next 7 days.

That’s because the market’s reactions haven’t had the slightest bit of consistency and have often resulted in immediate second guessing of itself, as well.

This morning the ADP report arrived and that may shed some light on what may be expected on Friday.

At least this morning’s futures weren’t continuing yesterday’s enthusiasm prior to that release, because that would be fairly irresponsible.

What the market is doing in the early futures is showing some tentativeness, which is really what you would have expected yesterday, as well.

For the most part that’s exactly what it did on Monday, but for some reason went in a totally different direction yesterday.

And then guess what?

It did the same today, electing to go in a completely different direction.

Maybe it was Janet Yellen’s comment that she was “looking forward to the day of the first rate hike” that spooked people out as being somewhat odd, maybe even eerie.

This morning there was some overnight strength in Shanghai, but that may now be a case of getting back to the dog shaking the tail and those gains may now not have any meaning for us.

They certainly didn’t, as the day progressed.

For the longest time, it has often been the other way around and that pattern started to changed this in the latter part of this past summer when we got very tired of the incredible up and down moves we were seeing there on a daily basis for an extended period of time.

Prior to this morning’s ADP report was a speech by Dennis Lockhart of the Federal Reserve and then after the release there were 3 more, including two by Janet Yellen, so there was potentially lots to move the market’s today, even though it would still make most sense to hold steady and wait for the real big guns this Friday and next Wednesday.

With a number of positions now set to expire on Friday and a desire to replenish the cash reserve again, I’m hoping that whatever the numbers show, the market takes a positive view and keeps prices at or above current levels.

I will have my eye on getting whatever rollovers can be accomplished as the week progresses, but am hopeful that Friday’s news will be good and that the market it accept it as exactly that.

Again, I didn’t expect to be doing too much, if any, trading today, although I wouldn’t have turned down any opportunity to put any stock just sitting around, back to work, or even rolling over anything that’s due to expire during some future week.

For now, it will be just sitting and waiting to hear the news for the rest of the week and seeing the initial and maybe successive reactions and wonder what it all may portend for Friday and maybe more importantly, for next week.

Daily Market Update – December 2,  2015  (Close)

Yesterday’s large gain was really a surprise, when you consider that no one should be certain about Friday’s Employment Situation Report.

Nor should anyone feel certain about the FOMC decision the following week.

But more importantly, no one should feel certain about how the market will react to any of the news that we’re going to get within the next 7 days.

That’s because the market’s reactions haven’t had the slightest bit of consistency and have often resulted in immediate second guessing of itself, as well.

This morning the ADP report arrived and that may shed some light on what may be expected on Friday.

At least this morning’s futures weren’t continuing yesterday’s enthusiasm prior to that release, because that would be fairly irresponsible.

What the market is doing in the early futures is showing some tentativeness, which is really what you would have expected yesterday, as well.

For the most part that’s exactly what it did on Monday, but for some reason went in a totally different direction yesterday.

And then guess what?

It did the same today, electing to go in a completely different direction.

Maybe it was Janet Yellen’s comment that she was “looking forward to the day of the first rate hike” that spooked people out as being somewhat odd, maybe even eerie.

This morning there was some overnight strength in Shanghai, but that may now be a case of getting back to the dog shaking the tail and those gains may now not have any meaning for us.

They certainly didn’t, as the day progressed.

For the longest time, it has often been the other way around and that pattern started to changed this in the latter part of this past summer when we got very tired of the incredible up and down moves we were seeing there on a daily basis for an extended period of time.

Prior to this morning’s ADP report was a speech by Dennis Lockhart of the Federal Reserve and then after the release there were 3 more, including two by Janet Yellen, so there was potentially lots to move the market’s today, even though it would still make most sense to hold steady and wait for the real big guns this Friday and next Wednesday.

With a number of positions now set to expire on Friday and a desire to replenish the cash reserve again, I’m hoping that whatever the numbers show, the market takes a positive view and keeps prices at or above current levels.

I will have my eye on getting whatever rollovers can be accomplished as the week progresses, but am hopeful that Friday’s news will be good and that the market it accept it as exactly that.

Again, I didn’t expect to be doing too much, if any, trading today, although I wouldn’t have turned down any opportunity to put any stock just sitting around, back to work, or even rolling over anything that’s due to expire during some future week.

For now, it will be just sitting and waiting to hear the news for the rest of the week and seeing the initial and maybe successive reactions and wonder what it all may portend for Friday and maybe more importantly, for next week.

Daily Market Update – December 2,  2015  (7:30 AM)

Yesterday’s large gain was really a surprise, when you consider that no one should be certain about Friday’s Employment Situation Report.

Nor should anyone feel certain about the FOMC decision the following week.

But more importantly, no one should feel certain about how the market will react to any of the news that we’re going to get within the next 7 days.

That’s because the market’s reactions haven’t had the slightest bit of consistency and have often resulted in immediate second guessing of itself, as well.

This morning the ADP report arrives and that may shed some light on what may be expected on Friday.

At least this morning’s futures aren’t continuing yesterday’s enthusiasm prior to that release, because that would be fairly irresponsible.

What the market is doing in the early futures is showing some tentativeness, which is really what you would have expected yesterday, as well.

For the most part that’s exactly what it did on Monday, but for some reason went in a totally different direction yesterday.

This morning there was some overnight strength in Shanghai, but that may now be a case of getting back to the dog shaking the tail and those gains may now not have any meaning for us.

For the longest time, it has often been the other way around and that pattern started to changed this in the latter part of this past summer when we got very tired of the incredible up and down moves we were seeing there on a daily basis for an extended period of time.

Prior to this morning’s ADP report is a speech by Dennis Lockhart of the Federal Reserve and then after the release there are 3 more, including two by Janet Yellen, so there may be lots to move the market’s today, even though it would still make most sense to hold steady and wait for the real big guns this Friday and next Wednesday.

With a number of positions now set to expire on Friday and a desire to replenish the cash reserve again, I’m hoping that whatever the numbers show, the market takes a positive view and keeps prices at or above current levels.

I will have my eye on getting whatever rollovers can be accomplished as the week progresses, but am hopeful that Friday’s news will be good and that the market it accept it as exactly that.

Again, I don’t expect to be doing too much, if any, trading today, although I wouldn’t turn down any opportunity to put any stock just sitting around, back to work, or even rolling over anything that’s due to expire during some future week.

For now, it will be just sitting and waiting to hear the news and see the initial and maybe successive reactions and wonder what it all may portend for Friday and maybe more importantly, for next week.

Daily Market Update – December 1,  2015  (Close)

Even though there’s lots going on this week, there’s really nothing terribly exciting until Friday’s Employment Situation Report.

At that point we may find out just how prepared traders are for what may be a new era, in that we haven’t seen an interest rate increase in nearly a decade and you have to be nearly 40 years old to even have the slightest chance of remembering what a real rising interest rate environment was like.

That was the environment that made “inflation” a really nasty word, until we realized that deflation was very good, either.

Up until Friday morning we may get lots of clues about what’s on just about every Federal Reserve Governor’s mind, including the all important voting members of the FOMC, who will meet next week. This week isn’t really unprecedented in terms of the number of speeches they will be giving, but it is up there and it will include some words from the most important members, Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer.

Still, with all of those potential clues, there’s not too much reason to suspect that the market will break out in either direction before Friday’s news is released.

Except that today it did.

Ultimately, it still just becomes an issue of whether Friday’s news is eventful or not, although it could also be tempered or fueled by OPEC’s meeting which will have started several hours before the Employment Situation Report is released.

This morning’s futures trading looked as if it wanted to erase yesterday’s late afternoon fade, which came after a very listless day of trading. However, straight out of the chute the market climbed to its high for the day after just 6 minutes of trading.

To its credit, after giving back most of that gain, it managed to close the day right near those highs, but there wasn’t any really identifiable catalyst.

Yesterday’s listlessness wasn’t unexpected and neither should that fade have been unexpected. What was unexpected was today’s action. I expected some jockeying going on for the remainder of the week as we approached Friday, with hedge fund managers probably looking at the next week or so as their make it or break it days of the year, as the bar isn’t set to high this year as far as beating the indexes.

But I didn’t expect it to this extent today, so we will now see if there’s an offset ahead tomorrow.

With 3 new positions opened yesterday, I still don’t expect to be doing much more dipping into cash or borrowing from myself in pursuit of opportunities.

That borrowing, in essence, using my personal accounts as margin, have worked out reasonably well over the past few months, but I always do so with some trepidation. That would be much more the case if I was also paying interest to borrow and was on the line potentially for a margin call.

No thank you.

Yesterday turned out to be a fairly active trading day in addition to the new purchases. I hope that the rest of the week offers some more opportunities to either sell calls on uncovered positions or to rollover expiring positions.

With Bank of America showing strength as the day progressed, there appeared to be reason to roll yesterday’s purchase over in an attempt to get either the dividend or more premium. Personally, someone else can keep the dividend, as far as I’m concerned. I’d be happy for just the additional premium on just 2 days of holding.

I even wouldn’t mind doing as was the case last week and this week and rolling over some positions that are set to expire in future weeks, in an effort to keep positions alive and continue to milk them for rental money, especially if that also includes being able to hold onto a dividend.

As I mentioned yesterday, this may end up being a very quiet week, as far as personal trades will go, particularly since there were only 2 positions set to expire and lots of ex-dividend positions for the week to create the income streams that I crave.

So yesterday was actually somewhat unexpected, especially since the market didn’t take a dive.

It also created a situation in which there are now 4 expiring positions this week, so it may not be as quiet as I had thought. 

At least it will hopefully not be as quiet as I had thought.

For today and maybe most of the rest of the week, it may just be a case of sitting and watching and then waiting for a crescendo, or if necessary, anticipating it.

Daily Market Update – December 1,  2015  (8:15 AM)

Even though there’s lots going on this week, there’s really nothing terribly exciting until Friday’s Employment Situation Report.

At that point we may find out just how prepared traders are for what may be a new era, in that we haven’t seen an interest rate increase in nearly a decade and you have to be nearly 40 years old to even have the slightest chance of remembering what a real rising interest rate environment was like.

That was the environment that made “inflation” a really nasty word, until we realized that deflation was very good, either.

Up until Friday morning we may get lots of clues about what’s on just about every Federal Reserve Governor’s mind, including the all important voting members of the FOMC, who will meet next week. This week isn’t really unprecedented in terms of the number of speeches they will be giving, but it is up there and it will include some words from the most important members, Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer.

Still, with all of those potential clues, there’s not too much reason to suspect that the market will break out in either direction before Friday’s news is released.

Then it just becomes an issue of whether the news is eventful or not, although it could also be tempered or fueled by OPEC’s meeting which will have started several hours before the Employment Situation Report is released.

This morning’s futures trading looks as if it wants to erase yesterday’s late afternoon fade, which came after a very listless day of trading.

The listlessness wasn’t unexpected and neither should that fade have been unexpected. You can probably expect some jockeying going on for the remainder of the week as we approach Friday, with hedge fund managers probably looking at the next week or so as their make it or break it days of the year, as the bar isn’t set to high this year as far as beating the indexes.

With 3 new positions opened yesterday, I don’t expect to be doing much more dipping into cash or borrowing from myself in pursuit of opportunities.

That borrowing, in essence, using my personal accounts as margin, have worked out reasonably well over the past few months, but I always do so with some trepidation. That would be much more the case if I was also paying interest to borrow and was on the line potentially for a margin call.

No thank you.

Yesterday turned out to be a fairly active trading day in addition to the new purchases. I hope that the rest of the week offers some more opportunities to either sell calls on uncovered positions or to rollover expiring positions.

I even wouldn’t mind doing as was the case last week and this week and rolling over some positions that are set to expire in future weeks, in an effort to keep positions alive and continue to milk them for rental money, especially if that also includes being able to hold onto a dividend.

As I mentioned yesterday, this may end up being a very quiet week, as far as personal trades will go, particularly since there were only 2 positions set to expire and lots of ex-dividend positions for the week to create the income streams that I crave.

So yesterday was actually somewhat unexpected, especially since the market didn’t take a dive.

It also created a situation in which there are now 5 expiring positions this week, so it may not be as quiet as I had thought. 

At least it will hopefully not be as quiet as I had thought.

For today and maybe most of the rest of the week, it may just be a case of sitting and watching and then waiting for a crescendo, or if necessary, anticipating it.

Daily Market Update – November 30,  2015  (Close)

As quiet and uninteresting as the last week was, this week and the next one may be in a position to more than make up for the lack of any news, excitement or market moves.

This week ends with the Employment Situation Report, but before then comes what may be a very contentious OPEC meeting and about 10 speeches coming from Federal Reserve Governors, including two from Janet Yellen and one from Stanley Fischer.

All of those come before next week’s FOMC meeting, which is then followed by a Janet Yellen press conference.

So this promises to be an event filled week.

You wouldn’t have known that based on how the week got going.

The OPEC meeting is thought to be one that’s going to put even more downward pressure on price and we’ve learned that during this cycle that has meant exactly the opposite of what it has meant in other times. It actually starts some hours before the Employment Situation Report is released, so there may be a double hit on Friday.

This time around when energy prices go down, so has the stock market. Instead of seeing lower energy prices as a gift and trading ahead in discounting the future, as the market has always been purported to do, the market has looked at the here and now and seen low prices as a reflection of a faltering worldwide economy.

On the other hand, the picture here in the United States is trying to decide whether the economy is sufficiently in recovery and on a path to continue the kind of growth that last week’s revised GDP indicated.

The biggest news is likely to come from Friday’s Employment SItuation Report which would be expected to run somewhat in parallel to news of increased consumer spending that the GDP has been indicating.

A good number is likely to solidify the odds of an interest rate increase being announced next week.

A disappointing number is likely to add more confusion to the equation, but the handwriting still seems to be on the wall regarding that rate increase.

The expectation has become that the FOMC will announce an interest rate increase, regardless of what the data may suggest, as the very idea of being “data driven” may have been a hoax.

A good number would likely be met with investor optimism, while a poor number is likely to result in a sell-off, as no one likes the uncertainty that would be associated with such conflicting data.

The pre-opening futures were indicating a mild move higher to begin the week, but after really spending the most of the day in a very apathetic manner, the day closed with an equally mild move lower, although it was deteriorating as the day came to its close.

I’d have liked to see some pronounced weakness early in the session,  having only 2 expiring positions this week at risk of not being assigned, in the event of a sell-off.

With an unusually large number of ex-dividend positions this week, I wasn’t as concerned about not making any income generating trades this week, but you would never have known that, either.

I did take some advantage of the upcoming ex-dividend dates and added to those positions, in addition to making my annual purchase of Bed Bath and Beyond.

As with the last couple of weeks, while wanting weakness to start the week, I was willing to accept a flat open. Hopefully today’s splurging will look like a good idea in hindsight. 

In the event that the market shows strength through the rest of this week, I’m likely to now be a fairly passive observer, only looking for opportunities associated with the expiring positions and hoping to regenerate some cash for next week.

Daily Market Update – November 30,  2015  (8:00 AM)

As quiet and uninteresting as the last week was, this week and the next one may be in a position to more than make up for the lack of any news, excitement or market moves.

This week ends with the Employment Situation Report, but before then comes what may be a very contentious OPEC meeting and about 10 speeches coming from Federal Reserve Governors, including two from Janet Yellen and one from Stanley Fischer.

All of those come before next week’s FOMC meeting, which is then followed by a Janet Yellen press conference.

So this promises to be an event filled week.

The OPEC meeting is thought to be one that’s going to put even more downward pressure on price and we’ve learned that during this cycle that has meant exactly the opposite of what it has meant in other times.

This time around when energy prices go down, so has the stock market. Instead of seeing lower energy prices as a gift and trading ahead in discounting the future, as the market has always been purported to do, the market has looked at the here and now and seen low prices as a reflection of a faltering worldwide economy.

On the other hand, the picture here in the United States is trying to decide whether the economy is sufficiently in recovery and on a path to continue the kind of growth that last week’s revised GDP indicated.

The biggest news is likely to come from Friday’s Employment SItuation Report which would be expected to run somewhat in parallel to news of increased consumer spending that the GDP has been indicating.

A good number is likely to solidify the odds of an interest rate increase being announced next week.

A disappointing number is likely to add more confusion to the equation, but the handwriting still seems to be on the wall regarding that rate increase.

The expectation has become that the FOMC will announce an interest rate increase, regardless of what the data may suggest, as the very idea of being “data driven” may have been a hoax.

A good number would likely be met with investor optimism, while a poor number is likely to result in a sell-off, as no one likes the uncertainty that would be associated with such conflicting data.

The pre-opening futures are indicating a mild move higher to begin the week. I’d like to see some weakness instead, having only 2 expiring positions this week at risk of not being assigned, in the event of a sell-off.

With an unusually large number of ex-dividend positions this week, I’m not as concerned about not making any income generating trades this week, however, I might like to take some advantage of the ex-dividend dates and perhaps adding to those positions.

With some weakness I wouldn’t mind dipping into cash reserves that grew with last week’s 3 assignments. While I’d like to see some broad weakness, I’m really more interested in seeing a decline in a handful of stocks that I’ve recently owned over and over and wouldn’t mind adding another “over” or two to the list.

In the event that the market shows strength this week, I’m likely to be a fairly passive observer, then only looking for opportunities associated with the 2 expiring positions and holding onto cash.