Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – October 12,  2015  (8:45 AM)

This is a week that has the Shanghai market in China back in action and starting the week off with a large gain and the People’s Republic of China  putting out comments saying that the correction is over.

History shows that it’s difficult to know with much certainty when an economy or when a stock market is really at an inflection point and braggarts have a way of getting humbled very easily if they own up to their own comments.

This morning begins the first substantive week of earnings with the financial sector getting things started. As long as using history as a barometer, it’s pretty clear that the financials don’t necessarily tell us too much about the rest of the economy.

Over the past few years as the market has been in recovery, we’ve had lots of quarters with earnings jumping out of the gate as the financials had roared back, but the retail and industrial portion of the S&P 500 didn’t necessarily follow along in reporting great revenues.

Increasingly lots of attention is being placed on both the top line and the bottom line, with the top line having recently become more important. That’s because every one now admits that the bottom lines have been artificially altered by all of the stock buy backs and it has been nearly impossible to compare one quarter to a next when the number of outstanding shares has really been a moving target.

When that point comes that the top lines of companies do start to grow, we are likely headed for another leg higher and are likely to finally give the FOMC some reason to act.

This wee does have a Retail Sales Report and that may give some glimpse into what is being experienced within the economy, but the more telling information will come in a few weeks as the major retailers begin spinning their numbers.

With some money in hand from a fair number of assignments last week and with only a small number of potential assignments or rollovers this week, I am very open to adding new positions, but will likely be looking at weekly expirations.

This morning the pre-opening futures are very flat, having ended last week in the same way, after accruing some nice gains for the week. The market has essentially been on an upward climb since the mid-morning turnaround on the Friday of the last Employment SItuation Report. 

With the S&P 500 having hit a low point of being nearly 12% lower, it starts this week only about 6% lower.

That climb has been great, but you do have to wonder about those straight shots higher. The market rarely goes on to gains in that manner. It usually puts together lots of incremental pieces that just create a cumulative effect.

As with large declines, the market usually tries to fill in the gaps and there is certainly a big gap right now. 

Part of the reason for that gap may be that markets have again gone to believing that the delay in an interest rate increase means that their party ways can now continue. In other words, bad economic news has created an environment that’s perceived to be good for the markets.

What that means is that we will likely once again be faced with a market that will then look at good economic news as being bad for markets, just as we had finally started interpreting news on its face value.

So there may be reason to buckle up again and maybe not spend all of that money that recently showed up after last week’s assignments.

Daily Market Update – October 9,  2015  (8:15 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6:00 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  GE, MET

Rollovers:  ANF, BAC

Expirations:  none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   GPS (10/5 $0.23)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  FCX (10/13 $0.05)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made by 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – October 8,  2015  (Close)

Just as you think you are seeing a pattern it disappears.

That was the case yesterday as the recent pattern would have had the day give back the gains that the market accrued 2 days prior.

Instead, and there’s no reason to complain about it, the market added on to those gains after having taken a day to catch its breath.

If that pattern were to be back in force today it would be another day to catch breath and get ready for what has been typically a very active day to close the week.

These past few weeks the market has opened and closed with a bang and has also done so on Wednesdays.

Yesterday’s gain was unexpectedly nice and another in a growing list of triple digit moves, although the net result of those moves has been to take the market to its first real correction in quite a while.

The market’s turnaround last week Friday to yesterday’s close has now shaved the loss down to 7% from its summertime highs. That’s still large by recent standards, but that gain has been sizable and very quick to unfold.

This morning the market loosed as if it will be giving back yesterday’s gains and is trading for the first time in a week with the Shanghai markets back open. Prior to those markets closing for a holiday there was some stability, but there was certainly less of an overhang for us with a very significant market being closed.

Today starts earnings season, which now basically never ends. The real torrent of important earnings begins next week as the financials start to report. Between now and then there wasn’t too much to potentially pull the market strongly in either direction as we awaited the outcome of open contracts that expire on Friday.

But what there was, were the FOMC Minutes from last month and even though we knew the bottom line decision, the minutes gave buyers reason for more buying and drove the DJIA to yet another triple digit gain and one that got stronger and stronger going into the close.

I’ve learned to not get overly wedded to the likely outcome after a Friday closing bell until after that bell has sounded, but there does appear to be a good chance of achieving some rollovers and assignments in order to be better positioned for next week, which marks the end of the October 2015 option cycle.

Today’s action helped to instill even more confidence in that belief.

Somewhat uncharacteristically, with that final week, I have fewer expiring options than is usually the case, as more and more positions have extended option contracts open with aspirational strike prices, hoping to see the market erase some losses and collect some dividends along the way.

I didn’t expect to be doing too much today, but would happily have jumped on any opportunity to sell some calls on uncovered positions or even roll over something from next week or the following weeks while there is still some additional premium from elevated volatility, which is now in the process of shrinking back.

That volatility was good while it lasted and I wouldn’t mind the market giving back some of these recent gains in order to extend some of the time that the volatility enhanced premiums would be around. That’s especially true if energy and commodities can continue to show some stability or even some strength.

That would be the best of all worlds right now, until finally getting a chance to ease up on some of those sector holdings.

Hope may not be a strategy, but without it you have nothing.

Daily Market Update – October 8,  2015  (9:00 AM)

Just as you think you are seeing a pattern it disappears.

That was the case yesterday as the recent pattern would have had the day give back the gains that the market accrued 2 days prior.

Instead, and there’s no reason to complain about it, the market added on to those gains after having taken a day to catch its breath.

If that pattern were to be back in force today it would be another day to catch breath and get ready for what has been typically a very active day to close the week.

These past few weeks the market has opened and closed with a bang and has also done so on Wednesdays.

Yesterday’s gain was unexpectedly nice and another in a growing list of triple digit moves, although the net result of those moves has been to take the market to its first real correction in quite a while.

The market’s turnaround last week Friday to yesterday’s close has now shaved the loss down to 7% from its summertime highs. That’s still large by recent standards, but that gain has been sizable and very quick to unfold.

This morning the market looks as if it will be giving back yesterday’s gains and is trading for the first time in a week with the Shanghai markets back open. Prior to those markets closing for a holiday there was some stability, but there was certainly less of an overhang for us with a very significant market being closed.

Today starts earnings season, which now basically never ends. The real torrent of important earnings begins next week as the financials start to report. Between now and then there isn’t too much to potentially pull the market strongly in either direction as we await the outcome of open contracts that expire on Friday.

I’ve learned to not get overly wedded to the likely outcome after a Friday closely bell until after that bell has sounded, but there does appear to be a good chance of achieving some rollovers and assignments in order to be better positioned for next week, which marks the end of the October 2015 option cycle.

Somewhat uncharacteristically, with that final week, I have fewer expiring options than is usually the case, as more and more positions have extended option contracts open with aspirational strike prices, hoping to see the market erase some losses and collect some dividends along the way.

I don’t expect to be doing too much today, but would happily jump on any opportunity to sell some calls on uncovered positions or even roll over something from next week or the following weeks while there is still some additional premium from elevated volatility, which is now in the process of shrinking back.

That volatility was good while it lasted and I wouldn’t mind the market giving back some of these recent gains in order to extend some of the time that the volatility enhanced premiums would be around. That’s especially true if energy and commodities can continue to show some stability or even some strength.

That would be the best of all worlds right now, until finally getting a chance to ease up on some of those sector holdings.

Hope may not be a strategy, but without it you have nothing.

Daily Market Update – October 7,  2015  (Close)

After Monday’s 300 point surge it was Tuesday’s turn to take a day off, following the previous week’s pattern.

If that pattern were to hold true, the expectation would have been for today to be a day when the market gave back its earlier gains of the week.

Instead, though, the morning’s futures trading had been pointing toward what could have been a triple digit move, but instead of being lower, it’s 100 points higher.

The day actually finished exactly that way, even after having given up those gains mid-session, but the bottom line was that there was resilience.

That’s not been the recent trend as the market has now begun to move further away from the 10% correction level. Following yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 is now less than 8% lower as we head into the 8th week after the sharp declines that took us to a correction.

Following today’s close that was now down to about 7% below the summer’s highs.

With earnings season starting tomorrow and really getting underway next week, there’s very little enthusiasm for the results that are expected to be reported. The last two rounds of earnings haven’t been great as currency issues have kept revenues down and the impact of share buybacks on per share earnings is stabilizing so that artificial boost isn’t continuing to improve that metric.

So expectations are low and prices, by and large, are already low, at least in relative terms.

While it’s often a mistake to believe that prices couldn’t go any lower and it’s very easy to get sucked into what’s known as a value trap, selective buying at and around the 10% market decline level has, thus far, been a reasonable approach. While i expect that we may see some price moves higher as earnings are released, it would be easier to have a level of confidence if markets could give back some of those recent gains and move closer to that 10% correction line as earnings are getting ready to be released.

Before thinking too much about next week, though, we still have to get through this week.

Barring some drastic moves lower there is a good chance of seeing some combination of assignments and rollovers, but I don’t think that there’s too much reason to add to the week’s new positions as we await the end to this week.

For those over-exposed to energy and commodities this week has offered some catch-up performance just as previous weeks have under-performed, but points out how patience can be a virtue, even if a very frustrating one.

I wouldn’t mind seeing that unusual relationship of increasing energy and commodity prices and the market moving higher continue, even if it meant paying more at the pump and elsewhere.  I certainly wouldn’t mind ultimately extricating myself from some of those energy and commodity positions, though.

The rest of the week has little economic news to move markets, although Jobless Claims are released tomorrow morning and FOMC Minutes see the light of day in the afternoon.

Those minutes are sometimes market movers as traders and algorithms pore over each and every word looking for insights into what the FOMC’s level of conviction may be on certain actions. Despite the fact that there isn’t a necessarily good correlation between what’s found in those minutes and what actually transpires in the near future, traders haven’t given up on them as opening the door into the collective mind of the FOMC.

So there may be some gyrations tomorrow, as a result, but they shouldn’t be too long lasting. at least hopefully not long enough to alter the hoped for results as the week’s option contracts come to their end.

Daily Market Update – October 7,  2015  (8:45 AM)

After Monday’s 300 point surge it was Tuesday’s turn to take a day off, following the previous week’s pattern.

If that pattern were to hold true, the expectation would have been for today to be a day when the market gave back its earlier gains of the week.

Instead, though, the morning’s futures trading is pointing toward what may be a triple digit move, but instead of being lower, it’s 100 points higher.

That’s not been the recent trend as the market has now begun to move further away from the 10% correction level. Following yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 is now less than 8% lower as we head into the 8th week after the sharp declines that took us to a correction.

With earnings season starting tomorrow and really getting underway next week, there’s very little enthusiasm for the results that are expected to be reported. The last two rounds of earnings haven’t been great as currency issues have kept revenues down and the impact of share buybacks on per share earnings is stabilizing so that artificial boost isn’t continuing to improve that metric.

So expectations are low and prices, by and large, are already low, at least in relative terms.

While it’s often a mistake to believe that prices couldn’t go any lower and it’s very easy to get sucked into what’s known as a value trap, selective buying at and around the 10% market decline level has, thus far, been a reasonable approach. While i expect that we may see some price moves higher as earnings are released, it would be easier to have a level of confidence if markets could give back some of those recent gains and move closer to that 10% correction line as earnings are getting ready to be released.

Before thinking too much about next week, though, we still have to get through this week.

Barring some drastic moves lower there is a good chance of seeing some combination of assignments and rollovers, but I don’t think that there’s too much reason to add to the week’s new positions as we await the end to this week.

For those over-exposed to energy and commodities this week has offered some catch-up performance just as previous weeks have under-performed, but points out how patience can be a virtue, even if a very frustrating one.

I wouldn’t mind seeing that unusual relationship of increasing energy and commodity prices and the market moving higher continue, even if it meant paying more at the pump and elsewhere.  I certainly wouldn’t mind ultimately extricating myself from some of those energy and commodity positions, though.

The rest of the week has little economic news to move markets, although Jobless Claims are released tomorrow morning and FOMC Minutes see the light of day in the afternoon.

Those minutes are sometimes market movers as traders and algorithms pore over each and every word looking for insights into what the FOMC’s level of conviction may be on certain actions. Despite the fact that there isn’t a necessarily good correlation between what’s found in those minutes and what actually transpires in the near future, traders haven’t given up on them as opening the door into the collective mind of the FOMC.

So there may be some gyrations tomorrow, as a result, but they shouldn’t be too long lasting. at least hopefully not long enough to alter the hoped for results as the week’s option contracts come to their end.

Daily Market Update – October 6,  2015  (Close)

Last week it was down big, take a break, up big, take a break and up big following a big intra-day reversal.

This week got started with an up big kind of move and the following day looked as if it might be another of the “take a break” kind of days, but lately there hasn’t been too much of a reason for much of anything that we’ve been seeing.

As long as you ignore the impact of a single stock on the DJIA, which helped the index move higher, the S&P 500 went lower, but only mildly so, making it a breather kind of day.

Yesterday’s 300 point gain in the DJIA has left the S&P 500 less than 7.5% below its all time highs. That means that it had moved about 4.5% from its intra-day low on Friday to its close on Monday.

That gain came after the initial reaction to the poorer than expected Employment Situation Report data was released and there’s not much of an explanation to account for that large magnitude change in direction other than a change in the market’s thinking about prevailing economic data.

We may begin slowly getting some idea of what corporate America is experiencing as earnings begin again this week and in a normal world that earnings news would get appropriately translated by stock investors, but it seems as if it’s been a long time since there has been a normal world for those stock investors.

Some consistently good numbers on both top and bottom lines would do wonders for investors who surely would come to appreciate the fruits of an expanding economy more than the prospects of a fourth phase of Quantitative Easing.

It’s even hard to understand how people could have been talking about such prospects literally just days after having talked about how an interest rate increase was inevitable and could have come as early as in just a few weeks.

As Doug Kass so frequently has been saying of late “the market has no memory.”

Ultimately, it’s much better when the market does have a memory and is rational, but that may be asking too much.

Yesterday, despite the sharp climb higher, I found some reason to add some new positions. I usually like to do so when markets or individual stocks are heading lower, but the opportunities still seemed opportune.

I don’t usually suffer from the “fear of missing out” and certainly had no expectation of the market continuing its torrid 2 day rise, but the 2 new positions opened did seem to be reasonable safe trades for a short term horizon.

For the longer term, there was also some opportunity to sell longer dated calls on some uncovered positions, but the premiums are already beginning to show some relative decline as volatility has fallen quite a bit as the market has taken that rapid climb.

History hasn’t been one to warrant the belief that large and rapid climbs higher are sustainable, so whatever opportunities may arise to sell calls on non-performing assets may be worth taking while waiting for the market to actually create a more sound foundation upon which it can begin seriously heading and staying higher.

With plenty of time left in this week I still wouldn’t count out the possibility of adding some more new positions, but would much rather be in a position to watch existing assets appreciate and maybe get some more opportunity to put the lazy ones back to work or even simply rollover some that might be in line for assignment.

Ultimately, it’s all just money and it may not matter what the source of the money was, as long as there’s no white powder residue.

 

Daily Market Update – October 6,  2015  (8:30 AM)

Last week it was down big, take a break, up big, take a break and up big following a big intra-day reversal.

This week got started with an up big kind of move and the following day looks as if it may be another of the “take a break” kind of days, but lately there hasn’t been too much of a reason for much of anything that we’ve been seeing.

Yesterday’s 300 point gain in the DJIA has left the S&P 500 less than 7.5% below its all time highs. That means that it had moved about 4.5% from its intra-day low on Friday to its close on Monday.

That gain came after the initial reaction to the poorer than expected Employment Situation Report data was released and there’s not much of an explanation to account for that large magnitude change in direction other than a change in the market’s thinking about prevailing economic data.

We may begin slowly getting some idea of what corporate America is experiencing as earnings begin again this week and in a normal world that earnings news would get appropriately translated by stock investors, but it seems as if it’s been a long time since there has been a normal world for those stock investors.

Some consistently good numbers on both top and bottom lines would do wonders for investors who surely would come to appreciate the fruits of an expanding economy more than the prospects of a fourth phase of Quantitative Easing.

It’s even hard to understand how people could have been talking about such prospects literally just days after having talked about how an interest rate increase was inevitable and could have come as early as in just a few weeks.

As Doug Kass so frequently has been saying of late “the market has no memory.”

Ultimately, it’s much better when the market does have a memory and is rational, but that may be asking too much.

Yesterday, despite the sharp climb higher, I found some reason to add some new positions. I usually like to do so when markets or individual stocks are heading lower, but the opportunities still seemed opportune.

I don’t usually suffer from the “fear of missing out” and certainly had no expectation of the market continuing its torrid 2 day rise, but the 2 new positions opened did seem to be reasonable safe trades for a short term horizon.

For the longer term, there was also some opportunity to sell longer dated calls on some uncovered positions, but the premiums are already beginning to show some relative decline as volatility has fallen quite a bit as the market has taken that rapid climb.

History hasn’t been one to warrant the belief that large and rapid climbs higher are sustainable, so whatever opportunities may arise to sell calls on non-performing assets may be worth taking while waiting for the market to actually create a more sound foundation upon which it can begin seriously heading and staying higher.

With plenty of time left in this week I still wouldn’t count out the possibility of adding some more new positions, but would much rather be in a position to watch existing assets appreciate and maybe get some more opportunity to put the lazy ones back to work.

Daily Market Update – October 5,  2015  (Close)

The last few weeks have been weeks of polar extremes. Not necessarily from one week to the next, but rather during the course of each individual week.

We’ve had the recent experience of opening weeks up very weakly or very strongly and then ending the week in just the opposite fashion.

Last week’s very impressive turnaround on Friday helped to end a consecutive streak of losing weeks and lifted the S&P 500 from being below that 10% correction line that we’ve been tethered to for the past 6 weeks.

This morning begins a week that really doesn’t have very much in the way of news. While FOMC Meeting Minutes are being released near the end of the week and another earnings season also begins near the end of the week, there’s little before that to get much attention.

Last week certainly had its ups and downs culminating with a very disappointing Employment Situation Report that really sent stocks in a freefall as they started Friday’s trading. That disappointment was related to the newfound belief that a rise in interest rates wouldn’t strangle the economy and was, instead, reflective of an improving economy.

So not getting that increase sent a message that all wasn’t well, but that message didn’t last very long.

Fortunately, that turnaround on Friday helped to see to it that a number of positions got assigned and was a nice thing to happen for anyone looking to increase their cash position.

Now, with more cash in hand, I’m still willing to part with some, particularly as premiums are relatively elevated and share prices have the appearance of being bargain priced.

That appearance can always be deceiving, of course, as they could and do frequently get even cheaper if they’re not attractive enough to draw in buyers.

Lately I’ve been buying more than has been the case for nearly the past 6 months, but there is still some uncertainty about what comes next for our own market.

As the 10 Year Treasury fell below 2% on Friday, once again stocks become more attractive. As China, Japan and Europe have their own hurdles that just adds to the appeal that US equity markets hold.

While the FOMC may not have gotten any real reason to justify a rise in interest rates after this past week’s Employment SItuation Report, the beginning of another earnings season may start to supply some proof that the consumer is returning and becoming more optimistic and confident. An increase in both revenues and earnings could be the sign that we all are looking for that the economy is on an expansion path and could finally be what the FOMC needs to justify the action that they’ve been telegraphing for so long.

This week I will be open to parting with cash, particularly since there are only a small number of expiring positions for the week and only a single ex-dividend position to create the cash stream that I’ve become addicted to. What I didn’t count on was parting with the cash so quickly and in the face of a market that had already climbed quite a bit straight out of the gate.

As with previous weeks I will be likely drawn more to short term contracts and would love to add a dividend or two to the mix, but you never know where the opportunity will be, as the script is frequently poorly suited for unfolding events. Today followed the script a little bit and followed an older dated script, as well.

With today’s 304 point climb, nearly identical to last Monday’s decline of 312 points, I’d like to see some more equilibration as we near the end of the week and wouldn’t mind some more of that dance in the vicinity of the 10% correction line

Daily Market Update – October 5,  2015  (8:30 AM)

The last few weeks have been weeks of polar extremes. Not necessarily from one week to the next, but rather during the course of each individual week.

We’ve had the recent experience of opening weeks up very weakly or very strongly and then ending the week in just the opposite fashion.

Last week’s very impressive turnaround on Friday helped to end a consecutive streak of losing weeks and lifted the S&P 500 from being below that 10% correction line that we’ve been tethere4d to for the past 6 weeks.

This morning begins a week that really doesn’t have very much in the way of news. While FOMC Meeting Minutes are being released near the end of the week and another earnings season also begins near the end of the week, there’s little before that to get much attention.

Last week certainly had its ups and downs culminating with a very disappointing Employment Situation Report that really sent stocks in a freefall as they started Friday’s trading. That disappointment was related to the newfound belief that a rise in interest rates wouldn’t strangle the economy and was, instead, reflective of an improving economy.

So not getting that increase sent a message that all wasn’t well, but that message didn’t last very long.

Fortunately, that turnaround on Friday helped to see to it that a number of positions got assigned and was a nice thing to happen for anyone looking to increase their cash position.

Now, with more cash in hand, I’m still willing to part with some, particularly as premiums are relatively elevated and share prices have the appearance of being bargain priced.

That appearance can always be deceiving, of course, as they could and do frequently get even cheaper if they’re not attractive enough to draw in buyers.

Lately I’ve been buying more than has been the case for nearly the past 6 months, but there is still some uncertainty about what comes next for our own market.

As the 10 Year Treasury fell below 2% on Friday, once again stocks become more attractive. As China, Japan and Europe have their own hurdles that just adds to the appeal that US equity markets hold.

While the FOMC may not have gotten any real reason to justify a rise in interest rates after this past week’s Employment SItuation Report, the beginning of another earnings season may start to supply some proof that the consumer is returning and becoming more optimistic and confident. An increase in both revenues and earnings could be the sign that we all are looking for that the economy is on an expansion path and could finally be what the FOMC needs to justify the action that they’ve been telegraphing for so long.

This week I will be open to parting with cash, particularly since there are only a small number of expiring positions for the week and only a single ex-dividend position to create the cash stream that I’ve become addicted to.

As with previous weeks I will be likely drawn more to short term contracts and would love to add a dividend or two to the mix, but you never know where the opportunity will be, as the script is frequently poorly suited for unfolding events.

Daily Market Update – October 2,  2015  (9:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 9:00 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers: BAC (15.50), DOW, GE ($24.50), GE ($25)

Expirations: BAC ($17)

The following were ex-dividend this week:  DOW (9/28 $0.42), EMC (9/29 $0.12), CSCO (10/1 $0.21)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  GPS (10/5 $0.23)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM.

Daily Market Update – October 1,  2015  (9:00 AM)

What the market has given or taken on one day hasn’t necessarily been the way the market acted the next day.

Sometimes that was a good thing and sometimes it wasn’t very good.

Today could have been a victory if the market could simply do as the futures were suggesting and just trade in an ambivalent way, following yesterday’s strong gain that happened to come after a one day breathing spell in the aftermath of Monday’s 300+ point loss.

Instead, it was a tale of two halves. The morning was just horrible, but almost precisely at Noon it turned around and erased almost every single bit of the morning’s loss. That turnaround came at the 1901 level on the S&P 500, which wasn’t really something that was appearing on anyone’s chart, but that’s where it turned on a dime.

That’s just the way things have been going as following the large plunge in August that took the market into correction territory, it’s just been a series of back and forth kind of days with very little net movement when all has been said and done.

Taking a little bit of a break today might also be a good thing considering that there’s not too much reason to want to stick your neck out too much ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report and would allow some opportunity to simply digest the gains from yesterday.

The shifting sands created by large moves in alternating directions just give no foundation for predictable movement and create an environment that’s really nothing different from a coin toss.

This week’s Employment SItuation Report may be the kind of data that could create some sort of foundation or break an existing one day. It may be more important than usual this month and could serve as some real fuel if it rekindles expectations of an interest rate hike or it could real dampen hopes for any reason for renewed buying.

Despite yesterday’s gain the S&P 500 is still slightly in correction territory and continues to straddle the line. Once the Employment Situation Report is out of the way next week begins another earnings season, that seems to have snuck up quickly and may begin to give some more tangible evidence of an improving economy and maybe the long awaited evidence of an oil dividend.

With a number of positions expiring tomorrow and none yet for next week, I would be equally happy with assignments or rollovers, but may want to take some pre-emptive measures for any positions that could become out of reach for either of those outcomes in the event of a strong downdraft tomorrow.

As long as volatility is keeping forward week premiums relatively higher than expiring week premiums there may be reason to take those pre-emptive steps and look for rollover opportunities today, rather than taking the risk of being taken out of contention tomorrow.

As is usually the case, it would be nice to have a mix of everything. New positions opened, rollovers, assignments, new call sales and dividends and there is still that chance this week, especially if  there’s some good news forthcoming tomorrow and today doesn’t end up being a day that gives back yesterday’s gains.

Daily Market Update – October 1,  2015  (9:00 AM)

What the market has given or taken on one day hasn’t necessarily been the way the market acted the next day.

Sometimes that was a good thing and sometimes it wasn’t very good.

Today it might be a victory if the market could simply do as the futures are suggesting and just trade in an ambivalent way, following yesterday’s strong gain that happened to come after a one day breathing spell in the aftermath of Monday’s 300+ point loss.

That’s just the way things have been going as following the large plunge in August that took the market into correction territory, it’s just been a series of back and forth kind of days with very little net movement when all has been said and done.

Taking a little bit of a break today might also be a good thing considering that there’s not too much reason to want to stick your neck out too much ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report and would allow some opportunity to simply digest the gains from yesterday.

The shifting sands created by large moves in alternating directions just give no foundation for predictable movement and create an environment that’s really nothing different from a coin toss.

This week’s Employment SItuation Report may be the kind of data that could create some sort of foundation or break an existing one day. It may be more important than usual this month and could serve as some real fuel if it rekindles expectations of an interest rate hike or it could real dampen hopes for any reason for renewed buying.

Despite yesterday’s gain the S&P 500 is still slightly in correction territory and continues to straddle the line. Once the Employment Situation Report is out of the way next week begins another earnings season, that seems to have snuck up quickly and may begin to give some more tangible evidence of an improving economy and maybe the long awaited evidence of an oil dividend.

With a number of positions expiring tomorrow and none yet for next week, I would be equally happy with assignments or rollovers, but may want to take some pre-emptive measures for any positions that could become out of reach for either of those outcomes in the event of a strong downdraft tomorrow.

As long as volatility is keeping forward week premiums relatively higher than expiring week premiums there may be reason to take those pre-emptive steps and look for rollover opportunities today, rather than taking the risk of being taken out of contention tomorrow.

As is usually the case, it would be nice to have a mix of everything. New positions opened, rollovers, assignments, new call sales and dividends and there is still that chance this week, especially if  there’s some good news forthcoming tomorrow and today doesn’t end up being a day that gives back yesterday’s gains.

Daily Market Update – September 30,  2015  (Close)

It’s not really clear what accounted for the morning’s futures pointing to an almost 200 point gain.

It could be that Asia was strong overnight, but that has been a very inconsistent indicator for about the last month. While the early part of our market’s decline definitely followed that in Asia, the uncertainty there has seemingly now been factored into our own thinking and largely discounted at this point, although you just never know what may come next from that part of the world, for better or worse.

Whatever it is that created this morning’s early rise, it wasn’t based upon any news, so it’s likely that it’s just more of the same going back and forth that we’ve seen ever since that breakdown between our markets an China, in particular. Since the, which includes the plunge that took us to our first 10% correction in years, there has been a continuing series of waves taking us up and down and in large moves.

Most of those moves have offset one another, although the net result has still had a negative bias and following Monday’s 300+ point decline everyone was running back to their charts to see where the next levels of support happened to be, just in case the next shoe were to drop.

Yesterday was the kind of day that today, by all rights should have been. There’s really not any news to account for any kind of large move, but of course, that didn’t stop Monday from happening and it didn’t stop today from happening either.

With the Employment Situation Report looming on Friday and the prospects that it may offer another in a lengthening series of strong results, comes the idea that maybe the FOMC will finally raise rates. That could have accounted for some of the early enthusiasm this morning just as it likely accounted for the early week strength that was quickly reversed two weeks ago when the FOMC disappointed most everyone by not announcing what had been widely expected.

With both Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer scheduled to speak this week there may be some hints of what’s to come, but because the FOMC hasn’t been exactly straight forward, those hints will have to be very heavy handed if the market is going to take the bait.

With a couple of recent familiar faces having been this week’s new purchase positions, I was more than happy to see this morning’s strength and hoped that there’s still going to be some more continuation of it, or at least that the market settles in at around these levels as the week will come to its end.

If so, there could at least be some chance to see some assignments or some rollovers.

If so, especially if there are assignments of those same familiar faces, I wouldn’t mind the continuing opportunity to consider purchasing them again and again, which is the definite advantage of having a market of stocks that is really undecided about where it wants to go. As long as the volatility can remain at these or higher levels, there can be lots of advantage in not thinking too creatively, but rather just doing the same thing, and with the very same stocks,  over and over again.

At least today did bring some opportunity to sell some calls on a couple of uncovered positions utilizing some longer term options in the hope that time will bring some more recovery. But if not, or if insufficient, at least some more premiums and dividends are collected along the way to add up and make the waiting period a little bit easier.

With just 2 days remaining for this week, it is like a number of recent previous weeks. There’s no telling where we go from here as the indications are all over the place and still do nothing to instill confidence.

In just 2 weeks earnings start anew and I’m fairly optimistic about earnings this coming quarter, just as I was the last time around.

Hopefully, though, this time around it will work out as planned and won’t be a series of earnings disappointments that coincided with the beginnings of China’s meltdown.

Daily Market Update – September 30,  2015  (8:15 AM)

It’s not really clear what might account for the morning’s futures pointing to an almost 200 point gain.

It could be that Asia was strong overnight, but that has been a very inconsistent indicator for about the last month. While the early part of our market’s decline definitely followed that in Asia, the uncertainty there has seemingly now been factored into our own thinking and largely discounted at this point, although you just never know what may come next from that part of the world, for better or worse.

Whatever it is that’s creating this morning’s early rise, it isn’t based upon any news, so it’s likely that it’s just more of the same going back and forth that we’ve seen ever since that breakdown between our markets an China, in particular. Since the, which includes the plunge that took us to our first 10% correction in years, there has been a continuing series of waves taking us up and down and in large moves.

Most of those moves have offset one another, although the net result has still had a negative bias and following Monday’s 300+ point decline everyone was running back to their charts to see where the next levels of support happened to be, just in case the next shoe were to drop.

Yesterday was the kind of day that today, by all rights should be. There’s really not any news to account for any kind of large move, but of course, that didn’t stop Monday from happening and it may not stop today from happening.

With the Employment Situation Report looming on Friday and the prospects that it may offer another in a lengthening series of strong results, comes the idea that maybe the FOMC will finally raise rates. That could be accounting for some of the early enthusiasm this morning just as it likely accounted for the early week strentgh that was quickly reversed two weeks ago when the FOMC disappointed most everyone by not announcing what had been widely expected.

With both Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer scheduled to speak this week there may be some hints of what’s to come, but because the FOMC hasn’t been exactly straight forward, those hints will have to be very heavy handed if the market is going to take the bait.

With a couple of recent familiar faces having been this week’s new purchase positions, I’m more than happy to see this morning’s strength and just hope that there’s some continuation of it, or at least that the market settles in at around these levels as the week will come to its end.

If so, there could at least be some chance to see some assignments or some rollovers.

If so, especially if there are assignments of those same familiar faces, I wouldn’t mind the continuing opportunity to consider purchasing them again and again, which is the definite advantage of having a market of stocks that is really undecided about where it wants to go. As long as the volatility can remain at these or higher levels, there can be lots of advantage in not thinking too creatively, but rather just doing the same thing, and with the very same stocks,  over and over again.