Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – June 25, 2015  (Close)

Yesterday was one of those days that no one really saw coming.

The futures market certainly didn’t have any clue and there really wasn’t much in the way of news to have sent the market reeling, erasing all of the gains for the week.

With no news coming from Greece, the only real news for the day was the revision of the first quarter’s GDP, indicating that the decline was only 0.2% and not the 0.7% that was previously reported.

What that may mean to some is that the slowdown wasn’t as bad as the market had been discounting, with regard to how long interest rate increases could be held off.

That’s a pretty big stretch of the importance of the GDP revision. It’s not too likely that the FOMC will look back at 4 month old data and use it to make forward predictions. No matter how you look at it the GDP still shrunk during the first quarter and at its current rate, the first half year will be a very slow one as far as economic growth goes.

That doesn’t give the kind of data that an increase in interest rates would be predicated upon. While there’s still more data to come between now and the next FOMC meeting in July, it looks as if there’s going to need to be some significant additional data to even warrant an interest rate increase in September.

Too bad, because most are beginning to be in agreement that we just need to get it over and move on in the realization that a small increase in the interest rate, especially if it’s not the first of a series of increases, isn’t going to choke the economy to a standstill.

With the market’s pre-opening futures showing some bounce back, but only a fraction of what was lost yesteday, this was mounting up to be a week that I’ve been sitting and watching trades expire as they wait for price points that never came. Today was more of the same as 2 trades that were attempted just sat all day, even as I tried to tweak the prices.

Even with any bounce higher and that bounce was getting smaller as the early futures trading was nearing the opening bell, there was very little reason to think about adding new positions, as there’s so much uncertainty. The market continues to sit at a very precarious position, not necessarily because of its heights, but more because of its continuing tentativeness and inability to have any kind of breakout.

The fact that the market can’t even do more than a 3% rollback is a little worrisome and may give some creedance to Carl Icahn, you expressed the opinion that the market is overheated, although he put particular emphasis on high yielding investments.

Add to that the flurry of IPOs lately and you begin to draw some parallels in your mind about all of the previous times when companies were tripping over one another in trying to bring their shares public.

By this time next week we should at least have some near term answer to what will be happening in Greece and we will be just 2 weeks away from another earnings season, but until then, there’s not much reason to expect that any of these triple digit moves higher that we’ve seen lately have any real basis as being anything other than reactions to the large losses that immediately preceded them.

There’s still a little time to see some trades get made this week, but it’s looking like it may be a complete shutout. Even where a rollover may be possible, the cost of closing the position relative to the premium received is just so small for anything other than looking at a longer term timeframe.

I’ve spent a good deal of time looking at October and even January 2016 expirations.

Hopefully, when the dust settles tomorrow, the portfolio will at least keep pace with the market, which for this week, to this point, still means being at a loss for the week.

Even that can be a victory, but if you’re in it for the income, as I am, that victory has little meaning during weeks like this.

.

Daily Market Update – June 25, 2015  (8:30 AM)

Yesterday was one of those days that no one really saw coming.

The futures market certainly didn’t have any clue and there really wasn’t much in the way of news to have sent the market reeling, erasing all of the gains for the week.

With no news coming from Greece, the only real news for the day was the revision of the first quarter’s GDP, indicating that the decline was only 0.2% and not the 0.7% that was previously reported.

What that may mean to some is that the slowdown wasn’t as bad as the market had been discounting, with regard to how long interest rate increases could be held off.

That’s a pretty big stretch of the importance of the GDP revision. It’s not too likely that the FOMC will look back at 4 month old data and use it to make forward predictions. No matter how you look at it the GDP still shrunk during the first quarter and at its current rate, the first half year will be a very slow one as far as economic growth goes.

That doesn’t give the kind of data that an increase in interest rates would be predicated upon. While there’s still more data to come between now and the next FOMC meeting in July, it looks as if there’s going to need to be some significant additional data to even warrant an interest rate increase in September.

Too bad, because most are beginning to be in agreement that we just need to get it over and move on in the realization that a small increase in the interest rate, especially if it’s not the first of a series of increases, isn’t going to choke the economy to a standstill.

With the market’s pre-opening futures showing some bounce back, but only a fraction of what was lost yesteday, this is mounting up to be a week that I’ve been sitting and watching trades expire as they wait for price points that never came. Even with any bounce higher and that bounce is getting smaller as the early futures trading is nearing the opening bell, there’s very little reason to think about adding new positions, as there’s so much uncertainty. The market continues to sit at a very precarious position, not necessarily because of its heights, but more because of its continuing tentativeness and inability to have any kind of breakout.

The fact that the market can’t even do more than a 3% rollback is a little worrisome and may give some creedance to Carl Icahn, you expressed the opinion that the market is overheated, although he put particular emphasis on high yielding investments.

Add to that the flurry of IPOs lately and you begin to draw some parallels in your mind about all of the previous times when companies were tripping over one another in trying to bring their shares public.

By this time next week we should at least have some near term answer to what will be happening in Greece and we will be just 2 weeks away from another earnings season, but until then, there’s not much reason to expect that any of these triple digit moves higher that we’ve seen lately have any real basis as being anything other than reactions to the large losses that immediately preceded them.

There’s still a little time to see soem trades get made this week, but it’s looking like it will be an extremely quiet week. Hopefully, if that does end up to be the case, the portfolio will at least keep pace with the market, which for this week, to this point, means being unchanged.

Even that can be a victory, but if you’re in it for the income, as I am, that victory has little meaning during weeks like this.

.

Daily Market Update – June 24, 2015  (Close)

While we wait for some near term resolution to the Greek banking crisis, the market reacted very positively on Monday when there was reason to believe that an agreement was in sight and then did nothing the following day when there was no news.

This morning there was again no news from Europe and the pre-open futures are flat waiting for the morning’s GDP data to be released.

That data will be among those indicators that the FOMC will be closely looking at in about a month, before deciding whether or not to raise interest rates before it goes on its own vacation and won’t be heard from again until September.

What the data indicated in its final revision of the first quarter, was that it wasn’t as bad as thought. The decrease was revised from 0.7% to 0.2%. Better, but still at a very slow pace for the first half of the year.

Interestingly, in the past couple of days there have been more people popping up doubting whether we would see any increase in those rates in 2015, at all. That was a more common belief a few weeks ago, but seemed to disappear after the last FOMC meeting, when most became convinced that September was going to be “lift-off” for the rate hike.

Any surprises in GDP, particularly more revisions upward for the first quarter, could have gone a long way in convincing the FOMC that the consumer is coming to life. Whether due to more cash in pocket from decreasing energy prices or whether from greater employment numbers and at higher wages, sooner or later that consumer spending has to kick in.

With housing picking up and those prices increasing, and minimum wage increasing and more people working, the assumption has to be that some of that additional household money is going to get put back into the economy.

While everyone knows and understands that has to happen, what has come as a surprise is just how slowly the obvious is taking to happen, maybe because people had to dig such deep holes for themselves after the last financial crisis and collapse of the housing market.

Tomorrow’s Personal Income and Outlays data may give some more of that salient data that the FOMC craves and may also be a potential market mover.

If the data continues to be good and follows the path taken today with that good GDP news, no one will be very happy, as today’s market lost everything gained during the first 2 days of trading and none of it can be blamed on Greece.

For now, indexes still sit close to record highs and as long as they can stay at these levels heading into earnings, there’s reason to believe that those markets can go even higher.

So far, this week, despite Monday’s nice gain, hasn’t had any trades get executed.

I did have a couple of trades put out yesterday and some more today, but the options market has been very, very quiet, as volatility is just continuing to be so low. With today’s price declines those trades just got further out of hand.

With that volatility being so low and premiums following them, there’s actually reason to consider being on the purchasing end of the options transaction as the premiums are so low and as long as the market continues to have an upward bias. By the same token, portfolio insurance through the purchase of S&P 500 puts is fairly inexpensive, as well.

The cure for that would be some uncertainty and there should have been plenty of that over the past month, but somehow it never materialized. despite what common sense may have expected.

Common sense also says that with the market going higher you would think that premiums for call options would get bid higher, as well, as people would be looking at options increasingly as a way of cashing in on that upward momentum.

But it was that same common sense that would have expected a spike in consumer spending to have occured more than 6 months ago as oil prices plunged, andf that still hasn’t arrived.

This morning, as the market has a moderately negative tone, there wasn’t much to do other than to await the GDP release and see where things would go as the market got ready to open for trading.

After that. there was even less to do.

Maybe tomorrow.

While I’d like to see some more of that uphill climb so that I can finally make some trades, it would be nice to see some uncertainty come back and goive option buyers a reason to come back into the market.

.

Daily Market Update – June 24, 2015  (Close)

While we wait for some near term resolution to the Greek banking crisis, the market reacted very positively on Monday when there was reason to believe that an agreement was in sight and then did nothing the following day when there was no news.

This morning there was again no news from Europe and the pre-open futures are flat waiting for the morning’s GDP data to be released.

That data will be among those indicators that the FOMC will be closely looking at in about a month, before deciding whether or not to raise interest rates before it goes on its own vacation and won’t be heard from again until September.

What the data indicated in its final revision of the first quarter, was that it wasn’t as bad as thought. The decrease was revised from 0.7% to 0.2%. Better, but still at a very slow pace for the first half of the year.

Interestingly, in the past couple of days there have been more people popping up doubting whether we would see any increase in those rates in 2015, at all. That was a more common belief a few weeks ago, but seemed to disappear after the last FOMC meeting, when most became convinced that September was going to be “lift-off” for the rate hike.

Any surprises in GDP, particularly more revisions upward for the first quarter, could have gone a long way in convincing the FOMC that the consumer is coming to life. Whether due to more cash in pocket from decreasing energy prices or whether from greater employment numbers and at higher wages, sooner or later that consumer spending has to kick in.

With housing picking up and those prices increasing, and minimum wage increasing and more people working, the assumption has to be that some of that additional household money is going to get put back into the economy.

While everyone knows and understands that has to happen, what has come as a surprise is just how slowly the obvious is taking to happen, maybe because people had to dig such deep holes for themselves after the last financial crisis and collapse of the housing market.

Tomorrow’s Personal Income and Outlays data may give some more of that salient data that the FOMC craves and may also be a potential market mover.

If the data continues to be good and follows the path taken today with that good GDP news, no one will be very happy, as today’s market lost everything gained during the first 2 days of trading and none of it can be blamed on Greece.

For now, indexes still sit close to record highs and as long as they can stay at these levels heading into earnings, there’s reason to believe that those markets can go even higher.

So far, this week, despite Monday’s nice gain, hasn’t had any trades get executed.

I did have a couple of trades put out yesterday and some more today, but the options market has been very, very quiet, as volatility is just continuing to be so low. With today’s price declines those trades just got further out of hand.

With that volatility being so low and premiums following them, there’s actually reason to consider being on the purchasing end of the options transaction as the premiums are so low and as long as the market continues to have an upward bias. By the same token, portfolio insurance through the purchase of S&P 500 puts is fairly inexpensive, as well.

The cure for that would be some uncertainty and there should have been plenty of that over the past month, but somehow it never materialized. despite what common sense may have expected.

Common sense also says that with the market going higher you would think that premiums for call options would get bid higher, as well, as people would be looking at options increasingly as a way of cashing in on that upward momentum.

But it was that same common sense that would have expected a spike in consumer spending to have occured more than 6 months ago as oil prices plunged, andf that still hasn’t arrived.

This morning, as the market has a moderately negative tone, there wasn’t much to do other than to await the GDP release and see where things would go as the market got ready to open for trading.

After that. there was even less to do.

Maybe tomorrow.

While I’d like to see some more of that uphill climb so that I can finally make some trades, it would be nice to see some uncertainty come back and goive option buyers a reason to come back into the market.

.

Daily Market Update – June 24, 2015  (8:30 AM)

While we wait for some near term resolution to the Greek banking crisis, the market reacted very positively on Monday when there was reason to believe that an agreement was in sight and then did nothing the following day when there was no news.

This morning there’s again no news from Europe and the pre-open futures are flat waiting for the morning’s GDP data to be released.

That data will be among those indicators that the FOMC will be closely looking at in about a month, before deciding whether or not to raise interest rates before it goes on its own vacation and won’t be heard from again until September.

Interestingly, in the past couple of days there have been more people popping up doubting whether we would see any increase in those rates in 2015, at all. That was a more common belief a few weeks ago, but seemed to disappear after the last FOMC meeting, when most became convinced that eptember was going to be “lift-off” for the rate hike.

Any surprises in GDP, particularly more revisions upward for the first quarter, could go a long way in convincing the FOMC that the consumer is coming to life. Whether due to more cash in pocket from decreasing energy prices or whether from greater employment numbers and at higher wages, sooner or later that consumer spending has to kick in.

With housing picking up and those prices increasing, and minimum wage increasing and more people working, the assumption has to be that some of that additional household money is going to get put back into the economy.

While everyone knows and understands that has to happen, what has come as a surprise is just how slowly the obvious is taking to happen, maybe because people had to dig such deep holes for themselves after the last financial crisis and collapse of the housing market.

Tomorrow’s Personal Income and Outlays data may give some more of that salient data that the FOMC craves and may also be a potential market mover.

For now, indexes sit close to record highs or at new highs and as long as they can stay at these levels heading into earnings, there’s reason to believe that those markets can go even higher.

So far, this week, despite Monday’s nice gain, hasn’t had any trades get executed.

I did have a couple of trades put out yesterday but the options market has been very, very quiet, as volatility is just continuing to be so low.

There’s actually reason to consider being on the purchasing end of the options transaction as the premiums are so low and as long as the market continues to have an upward bias. By the smae token, portfolio insurance through the purchase of S&P 500 puts is fairly inexpensive, as well.

The cure for that would be some uncertainty and there should have been plenty of that over the past month, but somehow it never materialized. despite what common sense may have expected.

Common sense also says that with the market going higher you would think that premiums for call options would get bid higher, as well, as people would be looking at options increasingly as a way of cashing in on that upward momentum.

But it was that same common sense that would have expected a spike in consumer spending to have occured more than 6 months ago as oil prices plunged, andf that still hasn’t arrived.

This morning, as the market has a moderately negative tone, there’s not much to do other than to await the GDP release and see where things will go as the market gets ready to open for trading.

While I’d like to see some more of that uphill climb so that I can finally make some trades, it would be nice to see some uncertainty come back and goive option buyers a reason to come back into the market.

.

Daily Market Update – June 23, 2015  (Close)

There was a lot of optimism yesterday coming from Europe, ostensibly because people believed that some sort of agreement, maybe a very short term one, was at hand regarding the Greek financial crisis.

At this point, with so many back and forth stories and with the clock ticking away toward a deadline imposed by Christine Legarde, I’m not even sure where the story currently resides.

Today did nothing to really clarify things, but at least I know enough to know that nothing big happened today.

Judging by the pre-open futures this morning, either nothing had changed over-night, or the US stock market is ready to de-couple and move forward.

As it turns out nothing did happen, but the US market just took the opportunity to do nothing.

The pre-open futures were mildly higher and may have even been able to continue yesterday’s very nice session, but not giving up anything is good too.. Despite having given up some of those gains the previous day, it was still a very nice day and today didn’t squander any of that good spirit.

With it looking just a few days ago as if we might be heading into another of those mini-corrections, or even more, the market wouldn’t go beyond a 3% decline. Even those 5% mini-corrections that we had become accustomed to over the past 3 years aren’t able to coalesce lately.

The market was set to begin the day less than 1% below its all time highs, with the NASDAQ having surpassed those highs. A curveball from Europe could upset that picture a little, but more and more there is talk about how inconsequential the Greek economy really is and how the EU would be able to withsatnd the departure of Greece from its grand experiment.

What recourse Greece may have is doubtful, as its new government hasn’t done much to move it forward and has only tried playing various sides against one another.

In the meantime, regardless of outcome, it will be time to move on. Unlike the situation of a few years ago, with Greece again at center stage, there’s not the same kind of fear that a failure in Greece would lead to some kind of domino effect across more of the EU.

So for us it will just be another story that disappears into the ether.

It would, of course, have been very nice if some of yesterday’s strength could have continued today as we tried to get out from under the Greek story and look forward to the next earnings season or at least get over any concerns that an interest rate increase will come as early as the end of next month.

With yesterday’s Existing Home Sales up a very strong 5% and with the price of a median home back up to the high levels last seen at the peak in 2007, there was going to be extra attention paid to New Home Sales data released today, in addition to GDP data tomorrow and Personal Income and Outlays on Thursday.

In essence, it’s a busy week that may better put together a picture of how much and how fast the economy may be growing, especially on the consumer side of the equation.

Too much good news, while good, could be bad in terms of expectations for when that interest rate increase finally arrives.

For today, I didn’t expect to be parting with any cash, but retained the hope that I could finally create some with a sale or two of option contracts to help give some meaning to the week.

I tried, but there were no takers.

Maybe tomorrow.

Daily Market Update – June 23, 2015  (8:30 AM)

There was a lot of optimism yesterday coming from Europe, ostensibly because people believed that some sort of agreement, maybe a very short term one, was at hand regarding the Greek financial crisis.

At this point, with so many back and forth stories and with the clock ticking away toward a deadline imposed by Christine Legarde, I’m not even sure where the story currently resides.

Judging by the pre-open futures this morning, either nothing has changed over-night, or the US stock market is ready to de-couple and move forward.

The pre-open futures are mildly higher and may even be able to continue yesterday’s very nice session. Despite having given up some of those gains, it was still a very nice day.

With it looking just a few days ago as if we might be heading into another of those mini-corrections, or even more, the market wouldn’t go beyond a 3% decline. Even those 5% mini-corrections that we had become accustomed to over the past 3 years aren’t able to coalesce lately.

The market is set to begin the day less than 1% below its all time highs, with the NASDAQ having surpassed those highs. A curveball from Europe could upset that picture a little, but more and more there is talk about how inconsequential the Greek economy really is and how the EU would be able to withsatnd the departure of Greece from its grand experiment.

What recourse Greece may have is doubtful, as its new government hasn’t done much to move it forward and has only tried playing various sides against one another.

In the meantime, regardless of outcome, it will be time to move on. Unlike the situation of a few years ago, with Greece again at center stage, there’s not the same kind of fear that a failure in Greece would lead to some kind of domino effect across more of the EU.

So for us it will just be another story that disappears into the ether.

It would, of course, be very nice if some of yesterday’s strength could continue today as we try to get out from under the Greek story and look forward to the next earnings season or at least get over any concerns that an interest rate increase will come as early as the end of next month.

With yesterday’s Existing Home Sales up a very strong 5% and with the price of a median home back up to the high levels last seen at the peak in 2007, there’s going to be extra attention paid to New Home Sales data released today, in addition to GDP data tomorrow and Personal Income and Outlays on Thursday.

In essence, it’s a busy week that may better put together a picture of how much and how fast the economy may be growing, especially on the consumer side of the equation.

Too much good news, while good, could be bad in terms of expectations for when that interest rate increase finally arrives.

For today, I don’t expect to be parting with any cash, but retain the hope that I can finally create some with a sale or two fo option contracts to help give some meaning to the week.

Daily Market Update – June 22, 2015  (Close)

With a little more cash in hand to start the week, I’m still not overly anxious to do much spending.

I’m not particularly excited either about having a third consecutive week without any new purchases, but the cash accumulation phase seems important to me right now.

As long as that’s the case, and with an eye toward increasing the amount sitting in cash reserves, I like seeing a week get off to the kind of start that the pre-opening futures were pointing towards.

Better yet, the gains stayed all through the session.

When I have lots of cash and am anxious to spend it, it’s nice seeing the market get off to a decidedly negative start, especially if there’s not as large of an adverse impact on the positions set to expire that week.

But when I don’t have much money to spend and the expiring positions could use a boost in their prices to put them into contention for either assignment or rollover, there’s a real delight in seeing the market begin the week on a much higher note.

For the moment, credit is being given for the higher futures trading to begin the week to the prospects for some sort of short term agreement on Greece’s banking crisis, but the morning also had a couple of very big merger/acquisition stories that could be driving sentiment.

Whatever the reason, I’m happy to see it and the prospects of the entire market being moved higher.

With a few positions already set to expire this week as the July 2015 cycle gets ready to begin, I would welcome anything that brings any of those positions closer to either a rollover, or better yet, an assignment.

With another GDP Report and reports on both existing and new home sales, there are potential market movers among the scheduled news events, but it’s not really clear how the market would react to overly good news.

With the prevailing belief that interest rate hikes won’t occur until September, any particularly strong showing in the economy that may come prior to the FOMC’s next meeting late in July could offer fears for a rate hike coming as early as that next meeting.

That would likely be neagtive for the market, at least until those fears are realized in more than a month or they are dismissed.

But in either case that would mean a period of about 5 weeks of worrying about what bad things the good news might bring, while totally forgetting that it is good news.

We do that on a regular basis and squander opportunities to revel when there is perfect justification for doing so.

Just as with some Employment Situation Reports in the past few months, the best data would be those that were just in line with expectations. Neither too good, nor too bad. Staying the middling course has its advantages and in this case mild strength in the economy would be the best way to  see the market advance.

The morning’s optimism looked strong enough to have some legs as the regular trading session got ready to begin. That optimism was seen in every component of the DJIA, so it was spread more broadly than simply the health and energy sectors which are in focus with the buyout proposals on the table.

Those kind of large and broad moves in the pre-opening futures usually do have some lasting power, and they certainly did so today, but with the Greece overhang, there’s more to the equation than just optimism about buyouts moving the market higher.

The Greek story has about a week more to play out and may continue playing a day to day role, as it did last week and caused market gyrations.

Hopefully there will be some rational thought and action coming from the Greek government that neither incite their citizens nor markets to do the wrong things.

As the market dis finally commence its trading, I was more than happy to just watch, especially as the gains were sustained until the closing bell.

Hopefully tomorrow will bring some more and really get the July 2015 cycle off to a good start. With little desire to spend money in order to generate income, I’d really like to see that income get generated from what is already in the portfolio and if that can happen I can learn to live without opening any new positions for the third consecutive week.

If doing so still lets me atone for some of last week’s positions that expired and are now sitting uncovered.by pitting them to work, that would be just fine.

Daily Market Update – June 22, 2015  (9:00 AM)

With a little more cash in hand to start the week, I’m still not overly anxious to do much spending.

I’m not particularly excited either about having a third consecutive week without any new purchases, but the cash accumulation phase seems important to me right now.

As long as that’s the case, and with an eye toward increasing the amount sitting in cash reserves, I like seeing a week get off to the kind of start that the pre-opening futures are pointing towards.

When I have lots of cash and am anxious to spend it, it’s nice seeing the market get off to a decidedly negative start, especially if there’s not as large of an adverse impact on the positions set to expire that week.

But when I don’t have much money to spend and the expiring positions could use a boost in their prices to put them into contention for either assignment or rollover, there’s a real delight in seeing the market begin the week on a much higher note.

For the moment, credit is being given for the higher futures trading to begin the week to the prospects for some sort of short term agreement on Greece’s banking crisis, but the morning also has a couple of very big merger/acquisition stories that could be driving sentiment.

Whatever the reason, I’m happy to see it and the prospects of the entire market being moved higher.

With a few positions already set to expire this week as the July 2015 cycle gets ready to begin, I would welcome anything that brings any of those positions closer to either a rollover, or better yet, an assignment.

With another GDP Report and reports on both existing and new home sales, there are potential market movers among the scheduled news events, but it’s not really clear how the market would react to overly good news.

With the prevailing belief that interest rate hikes won’t occur until September, any particularly strong showing in the economy that may come prior to the FOMC’s next meeting late in July could offer fears for a rate hike coming as early as that next meeting.

That would likely be neagtive for the market, at leat until those fears are realized in more than a month or they are dismissed.

But in either case that would mean a period of about 5 weeks of worrying about what bad things the good news might bring, while totally forgetting that it is good news.

We do that on a regular basis and squander opportunities to revel when there is perfect justification for doing so.

Just as with some Employment Situation Reports in the past few months, the best data would be those that were just in line with expectations. Neither too good, nor too bad. Staying the middling course has its advantages and in this case mild strength in the economy would be the best way to  see the market advance.

The morning’s optimism looks strong enough to have some legs as the regular trading session gets ready to begin. That optimism is seen in every component of the DJIA, so it is spread more broadly than simply the health and energy sectors which are in focus with the buyout proposals on the table.

Those kind of large and broad moves in the pre-opening futures usually do have some lasting power, but with the Greece overhang, there’s more to the equation than just optimism about buyouts moving the market higher.

The Grrek story has about a week more to play out and may continue playing a day to day role, as it did last week and caused market gyrations.

Hopefully there will be some rational thought and action coming from the Greek government that neither incite their citizens nor markets to do the wrong things.

As the market does get ready for trading I’ll be more than happy if the futures turn out to predict a higher open and especially if it’s one that can be sustained until the closing bell.

With little desire to spend money in order to generate income, I’d really like to see that income get generated from what is already in the portfolio. I’d especially like to try to atone for some of last week’s positions that expired and are now sitting uncovered.

Daily Market Update – June 19, 2015  (8:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  ANF, BAC, TWTR (puts)

Rollovers: KSS

Expirations:  BNO, BP, CHK, GDX ($23), KO, MAT

The following were ex-dividend this week:  LVS (6/18 $0.60)

The follwing is ex-diivdend next week: DOW (6/28 $0.42).

Trades, if any, will be qattempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – June 18, 2015  (Close)

Yesterday couldn’t really be labeled as a disappointment.

With the market having gone higher on Tuesday and erasing all of Monday’s losses and with lots of anticipation about even the slightest changes in the wording of the FOMC’s Statement release, anything was possible.

The fact that there was to be a Chairman’s press conference following the statement release was probably a source of some comfort as boih Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen have been able to bring some optimism to light, regardless of the sentiment perceived to have been in the statement itself.

This time was a little different, though, but still not disappointing.

The market had already moved reasonably higher prior to the press conference and maintained that level all through the conference. It was only in the final thirty minutes of trading, after the conclusion of the question and answer period that the market gave up some of those modest gains.

During that conference, as one of my subscribers said, Yellen should have changed her name to Wallenda, as she did the best tightrope walking act ever.

Yellenda.

I like the sound of that.

She did indeed do a great job of not really answering questions, but she did make it clear that the data would lead the FOMC into action, unlike the “robotic” increases seen in an early Federal Reserve.

So that brings us to today and tomorrow.

With the pre-open futures again up modestly, there was still some hope for some assignments and maybe even some rollovers.

Not only was there a rollover, but an uncovered position actually had calls sold on it, although both reflected the really low volatility thought to reflect the market over the next few months.

As this morning was getting ready to begin, it was extraordinarily unlikely that I’d be adding any new positions this week, particularly since there were no interesting dividend plays today, tomorrow or on Monday of next week. I much rather preferred to see a couple of those assignments that appear to be possible and build up cash reserves, even if only slightly, than spend any money at the moment.

More importantly was being able to add to the pitiful income stream of late, but that would have required some more nice gains this week.

Who knew that they would come today? Even in the context of some negative news from overseas.

At the moment I’d be happy to meet or exceed the market’s performance for the week, but would still be a little greedy and like to add some income into that mix. After the past 2 weeks of having lots of ex-dividend positions, this week’s single position doesn’t make up for the lack of premium income.

Hopefully some of the optimism that may have been expressed by Janet Yellen yesterday, that makes it seem as if a rate increase won’t occur for another 3 months may be enough to at least keep us at this level as we head into earnings all over again in about 3 weeks. WIth today’s gain that seems more likely, even though tomorrow’s challenge could be a quadruple witching, as well as just not wanting to be long going into a weekend that may bring some adverse ECB/IMF/Greek news.

Otherwise, today’s party wasn’t even the least bit upset by Oracle’s poor earnings and attempts to spin the news into something good at the expense of its competitors. Even though Oracle reported yesterday and blamed currency exchange for its woes of the first quarter, those reporting the second quarter’s results, beginning early in July, may have a very different story to tell, as USD/Euro parity hasn’t occured, as expected.

That should only add to top line and bottom lines and should be good for us all.

But first, we have to get to that point. Today was a nice step forward and tomorrow could be another toward at least keeping us above the water line.

Daily Market Update – June 18, 2015  (9:00 AM)

Yesterday couldn’t really be labeled as a disappointment.

With the market having gone higher on Tuesday and erasing all of Monday’s losses and with lots of anticipation about even the slightest changes in the wording of the FOMC‘s Statement release, anything was possible.

The fact that there was to be a Chairman’s press conference following the statement release was probably a source of some comfort as boih Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen have been able to bring some optimism to light, regardless of the sentiment perceived to have been in the statement itself.

This time was a little different, though, but still not disappointing.

The market had already moved reasonably higher prior to the press conference and maintained that level all through the conference. It was only in the final thirty minutes of trading, after the conclusion of the question and answer period that the market gave up some of those modest gains.

During that conference, as one of my subscribers said, Yellen should have changed her name to Wallenda, as she did the best tightrope walking act ever.

Yellenda.

I like the sound of that.

She did indeed do a great job of not really answering questions, but she did make it clear that the data would lead the FOMC into action, unlike the “robotic” increases seen in an early Federal Reserve.

SO that brings us to today and tomorrow.

With the pre-open futures again up modestly, there’s still some hope for some assignments and maybe even some rollovers.

It’s extraordinarily unlikely that I’ll be adding any new positions this week, particularly since there are no interesting dividend plays today, tomorrow or on Monday of next week. I’d much prefer to see a couple of those assignments that appear to be possible and build up cash reserves, even if only slightly, than spend any money at the moment.

More importantly is being able to add to the pitiful income stream of late, but that will require some more nice gains this week.

At the moment I’d be happy to meet or exceed the market’s performance for the week, but would still be a little greedy and like to add some income into that mix. After the past 2 weeks of having lots of ex-dividend positions, this week’s single position doesn’t make up for the lack of premium income.

Hopefully some of the optimism that may have been expressed by Janet Yellen yesterday, that makes it seem as if a rate increase won’t occur for another 3 months may be enough to at least keep us at this level as we head into earnings all over again in about 3 weeks.

Even though Oracle reported yesterday and blamed currency exchange for its woes of the first quarter, those reporting teh second quarter’s results, beginning early in July, may have a very different story to tell, as USD/Euro parity hasn’t occured, as expected.

That should only add to top line and bottom lines and should be good for us all.

But first, we have to get to that point. Today and tomorrow could be a step toward at least keeping us above the water line.

Daily Market Update – June 17, 2015  (Close)

“What the market taketh, the market giveth“, although it could just as easily be “what the market giveth, the market taketh.”

Yesterday it was the former, almost tick for tick erasing the performance from the day before. Not only in the amount of the change, but also in the quality of the trading. Neither day had much in the way of uncertainty associated with it, although Monday had a greater range.

This morning, as the FOMC got ready for the second day of its meeting and about 5 hours in advance of its statement release, all was quiet in the futures, sending no signal as to what anyone believes will be coming from the FOMC.

Some 30 minutes after the release was to be made would also come the last Chairman’s press conference until September, when many had already believed the first interest rate increase will happen and now have even more reason to believe so.

Regardless of what new ideas of words may have been introduced in today’s statement, if there was to be no change in the interest rate, you can bet that there would be plenty of questions directed toward Janet Yellen focusing on the timing and her assessment of the changing pattern of economic growth.

As it would turn out, there was no change, and there was plenty of time for questions.

What Janet Yellen did, she did masterfully, as she skirted those questions that sought any kind of detail or that tried to pin her down.

With almost every of these press conferences Yellen has been able to push markets higher. She didn’t really do that today, and I hadn’t been expecting her to do so, but at least she didn’t torpedo the mild gains that ensued from the FOMC Statement release.

As expected, and she made it pretty clear, if rates aren’t raised today the only things that could be said is that those rate rises are coming soon.

I thought that if that was to be the case,  rather than being relieved at that news and getting on with life, traders would take that as a short term negative.

But they didn’t.

Maybe they were able to remember that most of them expected a rate increase as early as June. So when not introduced today, it would just represent another month or more of the gift that the Federal Reserve has been giving the stock market. Now it looks as if it may be another 3 months.

That should be a cause for celebration, as should the actual raising of interest rates, when it does eventually come.

While waiting for today’s scheduled events, there was also the continuing matter of Greece, which may account for some of the back and forth having been seen in the market the past couple of weeks.

Also waiting have been some trades.

After being close to desired prices on a few trades on Monday, I was really hopeful that they would have happened on Tuesday, especially as the market headed higher.

But nothing.

I would have liked like the chance to rollover any position that makes sense to do so before the FOMC Statement release in order to avoid any potential plunge, but it just didn’t happen that way, yet again.

With the delay in an increase in interest rates for now, there was some bounce back in gold, so at least that gave a chance to rollover one of the Gold Miners ETF positions, yet again.

However, as we now near the end of the monthly option cycle, I may end up making fewer trades than may be possible because I don’t really want to take on the cost of the transaction, including buying back an option position that almost certainly would have expired worthless. With volatility so low the relative cost of buying back some of those positions is just too high compared to the new premium received, unless that premium is boosted by an upcoming earnings release.

While there’s always hope to extricate myself from some of the expiring positions this week, the clock is now really ticking. It would be especially nice to see some real follow through with another day of gains and most of all, for those gains to hold until the books are finally closed on this month’s options.

Daily Market Update – June 17, 2015  (8:45 AM)

“What the market taketh, the market giveth“, although it could just as easily be “what the market giveth, the market taketh.”

Yesterday it was the former, almost tick for tick erasing the performance from the day before. Not only in the amount of the change, but also in the quality of the trading. Neither day had much in the way of uncertainty associated with it, although Monday had a greater range.

This morning, as the FOMC gets ready for the second day of its meeting and about 5 hours in advance of its statement release, all is quiet in the futures, sending no signal as to what anyone believes will be coming from the FOMC.

Some 30 minutes after the release is made will come the last Chairman’s press conference until September, when many now believe the first interest rate increase will happen.

Regardless of what new ideas of words may be introduced in today’s statement, if there’s no change in the interest rate, you can bet that there will be plenty of questions directed toward Janet Yellen focusing on the timing and her assessment of the chnaging pattern of economic growth.

With almost every of these press conferences Yellen has been able to push markets higher. Today, I’m not certain that will be the case.

If rates aren’t raised today the only things that she could say or infer, is that they’re coming soon.

The likelihood is that rather than being relieved at that news and getting on with life, traders would take that as a short term negative.

Instead, they should remember that most of them expected a rate increase as early as June. So if not introduced today, it would just represent another month or more of the gift that the Federal Reserve has been giving the stock market.

That should be a cause for celebration, as should the actual raising of interest rates, when it does eventually come.

While waiting for today’s scheduled events, there’s also the continuing matter of Greece, which may account for some of the back and forth having been seen in the market the past couple of weeks.

Alos waiting have been some trades.

After being close to desired prices on a few trades on Monday, I was really hopeful that they would have happened on Tuesday, especially as the market headed higher.

But nothing.

I’d still like the chance to rollover any position that makes sense to do so before the FOMC Statement release in order to avoid any potential plunge. In some cases, however, I don’t really want to take on the cost of the transaction, including buying back an option position that almost certainly would have expired worthless. With volatility so low the relative cost of buying back that position is just too high compared to the new premium received, unless that premium is boosted by an upcoming earnings release.

Today, then, may be the equivalent of two days of trading.

Whatever happens before 2 PM and whatever happens afterward. That afterward component may also be two different sessions depending on the press conference.

While I’d like to be busy trading today, the pre-open futures just aren’t adding to yesterday’s nice showing in a significant way, although they’re not taking away from those gains either.

So there’s always that hope.

Daily Market Update – June 16, 2015  (Close)

Yesterday was another in a series of days to feel negatively about the market.

Although the focus has very recently been on Greece and the back and forth it has been having with both the ECB and the IMF, that focus will shift pretty fast as the FOMC Statement is released tomorrow.

That shift may have already happened as the market erased all of yesterday’s loss and traded just as yesterday did, only in the opposite direction.

Yesterday was a pretty bad day, even as it closed nearly 50% below the day’s lows. At least this morning there was no evidence of any further crumbling ahead of the opening bell. There was also no evidence of the market deciding to get optimistic ahead of tomorrow’s release.

The fact that the market didn’t pile on the losses during the futures session could alone have been seen as a victory of sorts, as there’s been very little reason for optimism lately. The complete reversal once trading started is another victory, at least in kind, if not really meaningful. Those occasional triple digit gains, such as last week, when it looked as if there might be some kind of agreement on the Greek issue, are just blips that have no meaning.

If they do have meaning it would only be if we are still in a bull market. That’s because the types of really large moves higher that we have been seeing the past few months after some large losses, usually only happen after bear markets.

While we’re probably still in that bull market, it’s really hard to know except years after the fact, as certain market moves can be seen as preludes only in hindsight.

With the market now again only 2.5% off from its all time highs the feeling is far more negative than a mere 2.5% should warrant, although some will have a sense of optimism after today’s gains. That’s because over the past few years we have had these kinds of declines on a very regular basis and simply moved higher from there. Today could have been more of the same, just as easily as it could have been a bull day in a long term bear market.

While this may not be any different and while most of the previous declines likely had some of the feeling that the big one was coming, it’s difficult to see where the next bit of optimism is going to come from, even with today’s optimism.

Where it may arise is from the feeling that a burden has finally been lifted once interest rates are finally raised.

There may be some hint of that to come tomorrow and that could result in a relief rally, but the amount of data coming in to support the interest rate increase hasn’t been very overwhelming. We may be seeing the beginning of a trend, but it does seem to be very early in the process to make the jump and pull that trigger.

Still, it would be a good thing for that decision to be finally made.

With yesterday’s weakness in the market and an unwillingness to put additional money on the line, I had a few rollover trades placed, but none could get executed. I was hoping that the very mild decline being seen this morning wouldn’t be too much of a barrier to getting something done this week, but even the strong broad move didn’t help to get any done today. Making some rollover trades ahead of the FOMC Statement release may be a good thing if the response by the market isn’t going to be welcoming, but those opportunities are becoming sparse as the market has been so tentative lately.

With some more possibility of an agreement ahead among Greece, the ECB and the IMF, there’s always that chance that markets will be lifted, as I don’t think there’s any further near term downside risk. Most probably expect no resolution and may even be already discounting a Greek exit from the EU.

With no good news having been digested by the markets in a while, any remotely good news may become exaggerated.

If so, I hope that comes before the week’s end and best of all would be additive to any good news we might react to from the FOMC.

I’d like to get out of the June 2015 option cycle and into the July cycle as unscathed as possible and with cash to show for it, but that may be a hard fought battle at the moment.