Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update –  November 9, 2016 (Close)

What can you say about today?

The day after the election day that everyone got wrong?

Well, at least the early going 800 point loss in the DJIA futures had been pared by 500 points and maybe we were also looking at an economy ahead that could get a large infrastructure boost.

A much needed one at the expense of the deficit.

Maybe that should have been done 8 years ago and people would have been put back to work much sooner than 2016.

This morning, my only thought was to “Hang on,” as I didn’t think it would be as bad over the next few days as I might have thought as recently as only yesterday.

What it turned out to be was a gain that I wasn’t really expecting had the other side won.

From the trough of the morning’s futures to the peak just near the close, the market made up almost 1100 points.

Wow.

There, I said it again.

What a day and with some real sector winners and some real movement in interest rates, pretty much doing the FOMC’s work for it.

Let’s see what the second day of the realization of the unimaginable will bring.

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Daily Market Update –  November 9, 2016 (7:30 AM)

What can you say about today?

The day after the election day that everyone got wrong?

Well, at least the early going 800 point loss in the DJIA futures has been pared by 500 points and maybe we’re looking at an economy ahead that could get a large infrastructure boost.

A much needed one at the expense of the deficit.

Maybe that should have been done 8 years ago and people would have been put back to work much sooner than 2016.

Hang on, but I don’t think it will be as bad over the next few days as I might have thought as recently as yesterday.

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Daily Market Update –  November 8, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday the market made it pretty clear that it didn’t like the uncertainty that they perceived with a Trump victory.

The association between the market’s sudden decline when news suggesting that there may have been more emails to be discovered and the surge when the all clear was given, was pretty undeniable.

The market views one side far more favorably than another, even as it has usually been wrong about which side to favor for the past generation or two.

This time they may be right, but not because of any individual, more because the trend is in the direction that will take the swinging pendulum of an economy over to the side of economic growth.

It was likely going to happen anyway, barring some horrible disaster or truly terrible policy decisions.

Even the lesser wanted of the 2 candidates would not likely be able to introduce such drastic policy decisions and to do so quickly enough to warrant the kind of reaction to the very thought of his victory.

I just enjoyed watching yesterday’s move higher and despite today’s seeming calm, there may be more in store tomorrow.

The question is really what happens after tomorrow?

At some point soon there has to be a realization that all signs are now for a rate hike in December, unless we get terrible retail earnings news this week.

Does the market look at that rate hike, now that it is almost guaranteed as the enemy or as a friend welcoming all into the great things that await in the economy?

Logic tells you that it should be the latter, especially at this early stage of interest rate increases.

History bears out the logic in using logic, but no one knows if the market will see it that way.

It did for a brief moment or two this time last year, but then may have gotten spooked by the thought of even more rate increases that never came.

That’s where this time around may be different.

Employment is higher and wages are moving higher. With evidence of GDP growth the time may finally be here for a series of rate hikes and at some point it will become burdensome.

That’s what a pendulum is all about.

Today the pendulum just kept swinging a little more, but those early election results are going to have to change if the pendulum is to keep moving in that direction.

This is one case that I don’t expect an immediate sell on the news in the event of the expected outcome.

It’s the unexpected that should always be frightening, though.

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Daily Market Update –  November 8, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday the market made it pretty clear that it didn’t like the uncertainty that they perceived with a Trump victory.

The association between the market’s sudden decline when news suggesting that there may have been more emails to be discovered and the surge when the all clear was given, was pretty undeniable.

The market views one side far more favorably than another, even as it has usually been wrong about which side to favor for the past generation or two.

This time they may be right, but not because of any individual, more because the trend is in the direction that will take the swinging pendulum of an economy over to the side of economic growth.

It was likely going to happen anyway, barring some horrible disaster or truly terrible policy decisions.

Even the lesser wanted of the 2 candidates would not likely be able to introduce such drastic policy decisions and to do so quickly enough to warrant the kind of reaction to the very thought of his victory.

I just enjoyed watching yesterday’s move higher and despite today’s seeming calm, there may be more in store tomorrow.

The question is really what happens after tomorrow?

At some point soon there has to be a realization that all signs are now for a rate hike in December, unless we get terrible retail earnings news this week.

Does the market look at that rate hike, now that it is almost guaranteed as the enemy or as a friend welcoming all into the great things that await in the economy?

Logic tells you that it should be the latter, especially at this early stage of interest rate increases.

History bears out the logic in using logic, but no one knows if the market will see it that way.

It did for a brief moment or two this time last year, but then may have gotten spooked by the thought of even more rate increases that never came.

That’s where this time around may be different.

Employment is higher and wages are moving higher. With evidence of GDP growth the time may finally be here for a series of rate hikes and at some point it will become burdensome.

That’s what a pendulum is all about.

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Daily Market Update –  November 7, 2016 (Close)

Early yesterday evening the S&P 500 futures were expressing a strong desire to break the 9 day long streak that broke a 36 year record for consecutive daily losses.

It may be coincidental, but after a week in which the declines were based on growing concerns that Donald Trump could find a path to 270 electoral votes, the evening’s strong advance came as some of the air was let out of the sails.

In the early trading the market was up nearly 1.5%, perhaps strengthening the belief that a Clinton victory could recoup everything that was lost in the previous 9 sessions.

The alternative, a Trump victory, could possibly then be the next step in taking the current 5% decline into correction territory.

Other than the election and lots of retailers reporting earnings this week, there really isn’t too much going on.

The market didn’t care and once it opened up for real, it just got stronger and stronger, ending the day almost 2.5% higher.

And, there may still be more to come.

A Clinton victory and some good retail guidance will almost assure FOMC action next month and I think the former alone will lead to a buying spree, as will the latter.

I don’t have much going on this week.

Just a single position set to expire and a single ex-dividend position.

If the market decides to continue with a large rally to start the week or in response to the election, I’m more than happy to just go along for the ride.

Today was a good start.

I wouldn’t mind that continuing to be the case and perhaps being in better position the following week to either see some assignments or at least get to do some rollovers.

At this point, I would just like to see some certainty, even if the answers aren’t what I would have wanted to have heard.

Still, 2016 has been good to me and could even get much better with another climb by energy and commodity prices.

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Daily Market Update –  November 7, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Early yesterday evening the S&P 500 futures were expressing a strong desire to break the 9 day long streak that broke a 26 year record for consecutive daily losses.

It may be coincidental, but after a week in which the declines were based on growing concerns that Donald Trump could find a path to 270 electoral votes, the evening’s strong advance came as some of the air was let out of the sails.

In the early trading the market was up nearly 1.5%, perhaps strengthening the belief that a Clinton victory could recoup everything that was lost in the previous 9 sessions.

The alternative, a Trump victory, could possibly then be the next step in taking the current 5% decline into correction territory.

Other than the election and lots of retailers reporting earnings this week, there really isn’t too much going on.

A Clinton victory and some good retail guidance will almost assure FOMC action next month and I think the former alone will lead to a buying spree, as will the latter.

I don’t have much going on this week.

Just a single position set to expire and a single ex-dividend position.

If the market decides to continue with a large rally to start the week or in response to the election, I’m more than happy to just go along for the ride.

I wouldn’t mind that being the case and perhaps being in better position the following week to either see some assignments or at least get to do some rollovers.

At this point, I would just like to see some certainty, even if the answers aren’t what I would have wanted to have heard.

Still, 2016 has been good to me and could even get much better with another climb by energy and commodity prices.

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Daily Market Update –  November 4, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:    INTC (11/3 $0.26)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update –  November 3, 2016 (Close)

Waking up this morning there were two big items of news.

The first was the end of that 108 year old baseball drought in Chicago.

The second was that as the S&P 500 futures were trading flat in the early trading, we had just come off of a 7 day losing streak on that index.

Surprisingly, that was the longest such losing streak in the past 5 years, as we have been in a slow, stealthy kind of decline from our highs on 2016.

Make that 8 straight days.

For the most part, 2016 hasn’t exactly been anything to crow about, but what little we had has been eroding as each of the past 3 months have been net losers.

For my part, I’m still pleased that this isn’t 2015 and I would be happy to close the books on the year, as I type, but  there is still lots and lots ahead of us.

This week still has more earnings and an Employment Situation Report tomorrow.

Next week brings more earnings and I tend to think that in the current economy the retailer earnings reports may be the most important of all.

What everyone really wants to hear from them is their outlook for the Christmas season and what they believe 2017 may bring in its first few months.

By this time next week, we should, then, have a decent idea of whether the FOMC can find it relatively easy to interpret the data that they care about to make an interest rate decision in time for their December 2016 meeting.

While most everyone has been expecting a rate increase to be announced at that time, no one is really predicting what the reaction by traders might be.

Of course, there are predictions and then there is reality, but there is also the short term immediate reaction and the longer term reaction.

The last time we were in this position the short term reaction wasn’t bad, but it didn’t last very long and the longer term reaction took us down by 10% in the space of about a month.

Circumstances shouldn’t be very different this time around, but who knows what the outcome might end up being.

We will, in a couple of months.

Or, maybe tomorrow.

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Daily Market Update –  November 3, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Waking up this morning there were two big items of news.

The first was the end of that 108 year old baseball drought in Chicago.

The second was that as the S&P 500 futures were trading flat in the early trading, we had just come off of a 7 day losing streak on that index.

Surprisingly, that was the longest such losing streak in the past 5 years, as we have been in a slow, stealthy kind of decline from our highs on 2016.

For the most part, 2016 hasn’t exactly been anything to crow about, but what little we had has been eroding as each of the past 3 months have been net losers.

For my part, I’m still pleased that this isn’t 2015 and I would be happy to close the books on the year, as I type, but  there is still lots and lots ahead of us.

This week still has more earnings and an Employment Situation Report tomorrow.

Next week brings more earnings and I tend to think that in the current economy the retailer earnings reports may be the most important of all.

What everyone really wants to hear from them is their outlook for the Christmas season and what they believe 2017 may bring in its first few months.

By this time next week, we should, then, have a decent idea of whether the FOMC can find it relatively easy to interpret the data that they care about to make an interest rate decision in time for their December 2016 meeting.

While most everyone has been expecting a rate increase to be announced at that time, no one is really predicting what the reaction by traders might be.

Of course, there are predictions and then there is reality, but there is also the short term immediate reaction and the longer term reaction.

The last time we were in this position the short term reaction wasn’t bad, but it didn’t last very long and the longer term reaction took us down by 10% in the space of about a month.

Circumstances shouldn’t be very different this time around, but who knows what the outcome might end up being.

We will, in a couple of months.

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Daily Market Update –  November 2, 2016 (Close)

There was still reason to believe that this would be a busy week, on paper, at least.

Unlike the start to the week, yesterday was far from boring, but it wasn’t really anything related to the economy or to business that stimulated selling.

It was another round of fear over the election results.

Today was the same as there was some evidence that the Presidential race may be closer than most anyone thought it might be.

The investor class clearly doesn’t like the idea that a billionaire non-politician could end up as the leader of the free world.

Next Wednesday morning can’t come soon enough.

Yesterday’s sell-off wasn’t as bad as it was heading to be, as the market did make back about half of its losses by the close.

That’s usually a good sign, but this morning there was no indication of a continuing rebound in the futures market.

With the week coming to its mid-point and the FOMC meeting this afternoon culminating in its statement release, there was little reason to get ahead of the announcement, other than in a defensive way.

I would certainly have taken an opportunity to sell calls into strength prior to that announcement, but could see no reason to part with cash.

It wasn’t really likely that anything good would come out of today’s meeting as far as market sentiment is concerned.

Any wording that was hawkish may have sent sellers selling as they will feel that time is really now running out to take profits, while dovish words would possibly make people wonder just how bad the economy really was, even as we start seeing signs of awakening.

I tried to keep myself awake as it was getting ready to wind, but there didn’t appear to be much trading action in the forecast, even as yesterday’s call sale was a nice surprise.

With the FOMC ultimately saying nothing, the only news for the day really turned out to be those election polls and a nap would have been the smartest thing to have done today.

There’s always tomorrow.

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Daily Market Update –  November 2, 2016 (7:30 AM)

There is still reason to believe that this will be a busy week, on paper, at least.

Unlike the start to the week, yesterday was far from boring, but it wasn’t really anything related to the economy or to business that stimulated selling.

It was another round of fear over the election results.

The investor class clearly doesn’t like the idea that a billionaire non-politician could end up as the leader of the free world.

Next Wednesday morning can’t come soon enough.

Yesterday’s sell-off wasn’t as bad as it was heading to be, as the market did make back about half of its losses by the close.

That’s usually a good sign, but this morning there’s no indication of a continuing rebound in the futures market.

With the week coming to its mid-point and the FOMC meeting this afternoon culminating in its statement release, there’s little reason to get ahead of the announcement, other than in a defensive way.

I would certainly take an opportunity to sell calls into strength prior to that announcement, but could see no reason to part with cash.

It’s really unlikely that anything good will come out of today’s meeting as far as market sentiment is concerned.

Any wording that is hawkish may send sellers selling as they will feel that time is really now running out to take profits, while dovish words would make people wonder just how bad the economy really is, even as we start seeing signs of awakening.

I’ll try to keep myself awake as it unwinds, but there doesn’t appear to be much trading action in the forecast, even as yesterday’s call sale was a nice surprise.

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Daily Market Update –  November 1, 2016 (Close)

This will be a busy week, on paper, at least.

With everything going on this week, yesterday was really a boring day and had one of the tightest trading ranges in quite some time.

Not so today as there may have been even more fear over the upcoming election results, taking the market on a wild ride, that saw it cut is mid-day 200 point decline in half by the closing bell.

With still lots ahead, anything can still happen, as earnings, the FOMC and the Employment Situation report can all come into play.

This morning’s futures looked as if they wanted to get November off to the kind of start that would break a 3 month losing streak but instead that hole is now a little deeper.

At this point, I would be happy to just hold onto the gains, mostly on paper, that 2016 has brought and I think that given my patience with energy and commodities, may put the portfolio in continued good position for 2017.

Commodities were stronger today and that least offered a chance to sell some calls on the silver position from a few weeks ago.

In the meantime, though, I’d still like to have some opportunities to add to the paltry list of 2016 closed positions and would really welcome any chances to generate some more revenue from existing positions.

I expect that 2017 will also look more at longer term strike expirations as the portfolio has become a trading one into more of a buy and hold kind.

For now.

Even as dividends have been accumulating, I still prefer an actively traded existence and it has now been almost 18 months since I have been routinely opening 3 or more new positions each week.

These days even one new position in a week seems like a busy week.

As long as there are other trades to be made to generate some revenue, I haven’t really minded, but this week may not even offer any of those opportunities.

What I do hope for this week is some good earnings news that could put some existing positions either closer to assignment or more in contention for having calls written upon them. There actually was some good earnings news received today on some positions, but their nice gains faded along with the market, even as still ending the day higher.

That’s not asking too much, but as I looked at a recent chart showing the S&P 500 performance against stocks hitting above their 200 DMA, it was striking at the divergence, as the performance of individual stocks was significantly lagging.

That was very much the story of 2015, as well, in which just a handful of really well performing mega-caps created an illusion of a decent year.

At some point, when people look at end of the year performance, that sort of nuance will be lost in the interpretation.

But it is the reality on the ground and it continues to make things frustrating, even when the year may be a good one on a personal performance level.

Every time I think that, though, I’m reminded that whatever contributed to an out-performance year in 2016 was also the reason for under-performance in 2015.

So there’s that.

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Daily Market Update –  November 1, 2016 (7:30 AM)

This will be a busy week, on paper, at least.

With everything going on this week, yesterday was really a boring day and had one of the tightest trading ranges in quite some time.

With still lots ahead, anything can happen, as earnings, the FOMC and the Employment Situation report can all come into play.

This morning’s futures look as if they want to get November off to the kind of start that would break a 3 month losing streak.

At this point, I would be happy to just hold onto the gains, mostly on paper, that 2016 has brought and I think that given my patience with energy and commodities, may put the portfolio in continued good position for 2017.

In the meantime, though, I’d still like to have some opportunities to add to the paltry list of 2016 closed positions and would really welcome any chances to generate some more revenue from existing positions.

I expect that 2017 will also look more at longer term strike expirations as the portfolio has become a trading one into more of a buy and hold kind.

For now.

Even as dividends have been accumulating, I still prefer an actively traded existence and it has now been almost 18 months since I have been routinely opening 3 or more new positions each week.

These days even one new position in a week seems like a busy week.

As long as there are other trades to be made to generate some revenue, I haven’t really minded, but this week may not even offer any of those opportunities.

What I do hope for this week is some good earnings news that could put some existing positions either closer to assignment or more in contention for having calls written upon them.

That’s not asking too much, but as I looked at a recent chart showing the S&P 500 performance against stocks hitting above their 200 DMA, it was striking at the divergence, as the performance of individual stocks was significantly lagging.

That was very much the story of 2015, as well, in which just a handful of really well performing mega-caps created an illusion of a decent year.

At some point, when people look at end of the year performance, that sort of nuance will be lost in the interpretation.

But it is the reality on the ground and it continues to make things frustrating, even when the year may be a good one on a personal performance level.

Every time I think that, though, I’m reminded that whatever contributed to an out-performance year in 2016 was also the reason for under-performance in 2015.

So there’s that.

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Daily Market Update –  October 31, 2016 (Close)

This will be a busy week.

Lots and lots of earnings reports are still ahead, before next week sees retailers begin to report.

And another big and complex deal was announced over the weekend.

And there is an FOMC meeting this week.

And the week ends with an Employment Situation Report.

With all of that going on, I don’t think I’ll be doing that much trading, but I would like to.

I have only one ex-dividend position this week and no positions expiring, so there is a real paucity of income for the week.

I don’t like that, but even as I do have some cash on hand, my preference is not to go even lower than the already low level from which I have wanted to emerge for what seems like the longest of times.

This may be an interesting week, especially if there is a really big surprise from the FOMC.

Friday’s GDP could be enough for the FOMC to make an interest rate decision.

So much is being pegged on the fact that there is no Chairman’s press conference scheduled as an explanation for why an increase couldn’t possibly come this month.

I’m certain that if Janet Yellen decided that she wanted an audience she could get one very quickly.

For my part, I just want the same that I’ve wanted all through 2016.

Any opportunities to sell calls on uncovered positions would be really, really welcome.

Today was just a total waste of a day when it all settled. Not much happened from beginning to end and very little happened in-between. There was only a 7 point range on the S&P 500 and less than 60 points on the DJIA.

It may as well have been another Sunday, but without the football.

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Daily Market Update –  October 31, 2016 (7:30 AM)

This will be a busy week.

Lots and lots of earnings reports are still ahead, before next week sees retailers begin to report.

Another big and complex deal was announced over the weekend.

There is an FOMC meeting this week.

And the week ends with an Employment Situation Report.

With all of that going on, I don’t think I’ll be doing that much trading, but I would like to.

I have only one ex-dividend position this week and no positions expiring, so there is a real paucity of income for the week.

I don’t like that, but even as I do have some cash on hand, my preference is not to go even lower than the already low level from which I have wanted to emerge for what seems like the longest of times.

This may be an interesting week, especially if there is a really big surprise from the FOMC.

Friday’s GDP could be enough for the FOMC to make an interest rate decision.

So much is being pegged on the fact that there is no Chairman’s press conference scheduled as an explanation for why an increase couldn’t possibly come this month.

I’m certain that if Janet Yellen decided that she wanted an audience she could get one very quickly.

For my part, I just want the same that I’ve wanted all through 2016.

Any opportunities to sell calls on uncovered positions would be really, really welcome.

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