Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – December 24, 2014 (Close)

This morning, the day before Christmas, was looking as if the market would be trying to add another day higher to the current string, in an attempt to make it 6 days higher in a row.

While most holidays see the day before trade to lower levels, that’s not the case for Christmas, as 67% of the time time, that shortened day ends up moving higher. Today that 67% edged up just a little itself, as the market set another new record high after having done so, with some fanfare yesterday.

Granted, after some last 15 minute selling, the DJIA barely escaped with a small gain and the S&P 500 finished just a hair lower, down 0.008%

Add that to the Santa Claus Rally that’s still owed to us and 2014 may go out on a high note, despite how energy continues to drag the broader market lower.

Still, yesterday saw the 18000 level broken for the very first time and the S&P 500 also made a new high.

In that regard 2014 is very much like 2007 in that seemingly new highs were being made on about a weekly basis, on average.

In 2014 there have now been over 50 new highs.

Today may be a day that just gets lost in that shuffle, as in 2007 those new highs stopped being news, much as they’re not very much news these days, either, unless they encompass some round number in them, such as 18000.

For now, I really don’t care whether the moves higher are newsworthy or not. I don’t mind seeing prices edging higher, but would still be every happy to see energy sector stocks make up some of what they’ve lost over the past month or more.

I wasn’t expecting to do very much today, certainly not expecting to add to the week’s new positions. Still, I was disappointed by not getting any trades come across, at all.

The likelihood, at this point of selling any new call contracts expiring this week is now very small, as the premiums were going to be tiny reflecting only 1 1/2 days of time and seeing volatility moving lower, as they are now down nearly 40% from their levels of just a week ago. For that reason sights are now set for next week’s expirations, the first week of 2015.

During that rise in volatility is was easier to diversify expiration dates, but as they are returning to their low levels seen at the time of the previous run higher beginning in mid-October came to its peak, it’s more difficult to accept the low marginal premium increases that are seen when adding more time into the equation.

With what was likely to be a slow day anyway and then a short one, at that, it’s was just a good time to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a hope that all is in place to get 2015 off to a great start.

Maybe Friday will actually begin the real rally.

Daily Market Update – December 24, 2014 (9:00 AM)

This morning, the day before Christmas, is looking as if the market will be trying to add another day higher to the current string.

While most holidays see the day before trade to lower levels, that’s not the case for Christmas, as 67% of the time time, that shortened day ends up moving higher.

Add that to the Santa Claus Rally that’s still owed to us and 2014 may go out on a high note, despite how energy continues to drag the broader market lower.

Still, yesterday saw the 18000 level broken for the very first time and the S&P 500 also made a new high.

In that regard 2014 is very much like 2007 in that seemingly new highs were being made on about a weekly basis, on average.

In 2014 there have now been over 50 new highs.

Today may be a day that just gets lost in that shuffle, as in 2007 those new highs stopped being news, much as they’re not very much news these days, either, unless they encompass some round number in them, such as 18000.

For now, I really don’t care whether the moves higher are newsworthy or not. I don’t mind seeing prices edging higher, but would still be every happy to see energy sector stocks make up some of what they’ve lost over the past month or more.

I’m not expecting to do very much today, certainly not expecting to add to the week’s new positions. The likelihood, at this point of selling any new call contracts expiring this week is now very small, as the premiums are going to be tiny reflecting only 1 1/2 days of time and seeing volatility moving lower, as they are now down nearly 40% from their levels of just a week ago. For that reason sights are now set for next week’s expirations, the first week of 2015.

During that rise in volatility is was easier to diversify expiration dates, but as they are returning to their low levels seen at the time of the previous run higher beginning in mid-October came to its peak, it’s more difficult to accept the low marginal premium increases that are seen when adding more time into the equation.

With what is likely to be a slow day anyway and then a short one, at that, it’s probably just a good time to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a hope that all is in place to get 2015 off to a great start.

Daily Market Update – December 23, 2014 (Close)

This morning’s GDP report, plus any revisions, was expected to give us a glimpse into what lower energy prices can do for the economy.

At best, it will only be a glimpse, as those lower energy prices haven’t been around for too long, but all you have to do is speak to anyone and you know that they feel as if they have more money in their pockets.

Americans like to spend money that’s in their pockets, so hopefully that sensation of feeling better off will translate into something tangible.

If the parking lots at the malls are any indication, they are doing just that, but we haven’t heard too much from retailers, as everyone has been talking about nothing but fuel prices, but in a good way..

That lack of retail in the conversation will end soon, just as Christmas Day is now just a couple of days away.

As it turned out that glimpse offered some good news as the GDP is now indicating 5% growth, which is the highest rate in 10 years.

Not quite what we used stand in awe over when it was China reporting rates even higher, but ours are a bit more believable and if the law of large numbers ever applies to anything, it’s not that easy to grow an economy the size of the United States.

The real fun may start next month, as the next scheduled GDP comes the morning after the FOMC Statement release. Of course, if today’s report shows too much growth, there’s always a chance that a data driven FOMC would see that kind of accelerating growth as a reason to begin to move interest rates higher in an effort to prevent over-heating off the economy.

But that’s an issue for another day.

This morning, in anticipation of the GDP the futures market seemed as if it is willing to add to yesterday’s record closing high. It looked as if the markets were dropping their good is bad and bad is good perspective and getting ready to make an expression of “good is good.”

With oil headed lower yesterday it was another example of the de-coupling that started last week, as stocks went very nicely higher, although this time they left the energy sector behind.

Mt thinking early this morning was that another nice day today, maybe fueled by the GDP could give some opportunity to sell some calls on those uncovered positions and that would be more important to me today than adding another new position or two, or three.

Instead, I sold those one or two new positions and only one new covered position. So much for plans.

With trading for the week rapidly coming to an end there’s even more reason to begin looking at expanded weekly options or those ending at the month’s conclusion.

This morning was a morning to watch and see where the news leads us and hopefully be able to sit passively for a while as they move higher. Instead, the trades ended up being relatively early in the session and then sitting back and watching as most everything went higher, although the S&P 500 continues to lag the DJIA, which topped 18000 for the first time ever, today.

The continuing challenge, as it has been for the past week, has been to wonder whether any climb higher is just part of the dead cat and should be taken advantage of, or part of a concerted climb higher.

So far, it has been good to resist some of the moves higher, although energy sector prices have been going back and forth. But what may have been a full correction in the making looks as if it was just another of those regular mini-corrections that come along every two months.

For the moment it looks good not having committed to strike prices, especially of a longer term nature, as there may be even more recovery ahead.

But time will tell soon enough.

Daily Market Update – December 23, 2014 (8:30 AM)

This morning’s GDP report, plus any revisions, may give us a glimpse into what lower energy prices can do for the economy.

At best, it will only be a glimpse, as those lower energy prices haven’t been around for too long, but all you have to do is speak to anyone and you know that they feel as if they have more money in their pockets.

Americans like to spend money that’s in their pockets, so hopefully that sensation of feeling better off will translate into something tangible.

If the parking lots at the malls are any indication, they are doing just that, but we haven’t heard too much from retailers, as everyone has been talking about nothing but fuel prices, but in a good way..

That lack of retail in the conversation will end soon, just as Christmas Day is now just a couple of days away.

The real fun may start next moth, as the next scheduled GDP comes the morning after the FOMC Statement release. Of course, if today’s report shows too much growth, there’s always a chance that a data driven FOMC would see that kind of accelerating growth as a reason to begin to move interest rates higher in an effort to prevent over-heating off the economy.

But that’s an issue for another day.

This morning, in anticipation of the GDP the futures market seems as if it is willing to add to yesterday’s record closing high.

With oil headed lower yesterday it was another example of the de-coupling that started last week, as stocks went very nicely higher, although this time they left the energy sector behind.

Another nice day today, maybe fueled by the GDP could give some opportunity to sell some calls on those uncovered positions and that would be more important to me today than adding another new position or two, or three.

With trading for the week rapidly coming to an end there’s even more reason to begin looking at expanded weekly options or those ending at the month’s conclusion.

This morning will probably be a morning to watch and see where the news leads us and hopefully be able to sit passively for a while as they move higher.

The continuing challenge, as it has been for the past week, has been to wonder whether any climb higher is just part of the dead cat and should be taken advantage of, or part of a concerted climb higher.

So far, it has been good to resist some of the moves higher, although energy sector prices have been going back and forth. But what may have been a full correction in the making looks as if it was just another of those regular mini-corrections that come along every two months.

For the moment it looks good not having committed to strike prices, especially of a longer term nature, as there may be even more recovery ahead.

But time will tell soon enough.

Daily Market Update – December 22, 2014 (Close)

Today looked as if it would open with a mildly higher bias, but the real impetus may come tomorrow, as the GDP is released, including any revisions to prior months.

Given how the day ended 150 points higher today that could really be a beautiful thing if the GDP could really give that push to the next level. Maybe it would offset the weakness shown by the energy sector today that put a lid on the S&P 500’s gains, as compared to the DJIA.

Oil prices have now been low enough and long enough to possibly already begin showing up in the GDP and that statistic has created some powerful moves in markets this year in both directions. If not this month, then the next month’s GDP report, which comes a day after the next FOMC Statement could be the one to start showing some real impact of lower energy prices on consumer spending and economic growth.

Although oil prices and the market seemed to de-couple last week there  will still be plenty of attention placed on the energy sector, which also seemed to de-couple somewhat from oil prices.

Today was another day of de-coupling, as it is sinking in that there’s much more to a market of stocks than just energy companies.

The morning already indicated a decline in oil prices, but the market was clearly heading again in the opposite direction. However, during this trade shortened week, with its expected low volume, anything can easily magnify and distort any trends.

While the traditional Santa Claus Rally is usually set to begin right after Christmas and even with some nice recovery last week, I’m not really anticipating establishing much in the way of new positions in anticipation of that rally.

I would just be happy to see prices, especially in the energy sector move higher and would like to see attention return to the retail sector, which is usually where we’re focused at this time of the year.

Although energy didn’t play along, it was good seeing the market rise without any real provocation and if we can get over the oil issue we may be able to start paying attention to the usual story this time of year.

The typical December story is that retail sales are disappointing heading into the final days of the Christmas holiday and then surprisingly, turn out to be better than expected when the dust settles.

This year we have almost none of the information that usually accompanies this time of the year, but the expectation has to be for good numbers as all of the signs are now pointing to an improving economy with more jobs, better paying jobs, a relatively warm winter, so far, and dropping oil and gas prices.

That would be a nice scenario to end out the year and usher in the next earnings season that starts in  just a little more than 2 weeks.

Last week was an exceptionally slow trading week. Hopefully this week will provide an opportunity to make some trades, especially the sale of new call positions. I would like to see some more assignments this week, although at the moment there are only a handful of positions set to expire this Friday. Any opportunity to add to that list from among current positions would be a good thing, as in addition to the income received, I’d still like to reduce the total number of positions held.

With such a short trading week option premiums are going to be lower than usual, especially for the weekly variety. With some give back in volatility last week after that two day 700 point gain, there’s probably going to be less enticement to look at expanded weekly options, but that still may offer a little bit better premium.

Although last Friday was a fairly quiet trading day after a preceding 4 days of triple digit moves, including lots of intra-day volatility, there’s no reason to believe that it will be overly quiet this week, despite the calm that seems to be characterizing this morning’s open.

While I’d like to see an early week’s market climb in order to have some opportunity to sell calls, any sign of a give back of gains would be the time that I would consider adding some new positions, in the anticipation that this week could be as much of a roller coaster as last week.

Today’s strong triple digit gain is an indication of the kind of surprises, good and bad, that may await.

Daily Market Update – December 22, 2014 (8:15 AM)

Today looks as if it will open with a mildly higher bias, but the real impetus may come tomorrow, as the GDP is released, including any revisions to prior months.

Oil prices have now been low enough and long enough to possibly already begin showing up in the GDP and that statistic has created some powerful moves in markets this year in both directions. If not this month, then the next month’s GDP report, which comes a day after the next FOMC Statement could be the one to start showing some real impact of lower energy prices on consumer spending and economic growth.

Although oil prices and the market seemed to de-couple last week there  will still be plenty of attention placed on the energy sector, which also seemed to de-couple somewhat from oil prices.

The morning is actually indicating a decline in oil prices, but the market is heading again in the opposite direction, although this trade shortened week, with its expected low volume, can easily magnify and distort any trends.

While the traditional Santa Claus Rally is usually set to begin right after Christmas and even with some nice recovery last week, I’m not really anticipating establishing much in the way of new positions in anticipation of that rally.

I would just be happy to see prices, especially in the energy sector move higher and would like to see attention return to the retail sector, which is usually where we’re focused at this time of the year.

The typical December story is that retail sales are disappointing heading into the final days of the Christmas holiday and then surprisingly, turn out to be better than expected when the dust settles.

This year we have almost none of the information that usually accompanies this time of the year, but the expectation has to be for good numbers as all of the signs are now pointing to an improving economy with more jobs, better paying jobs, a relatively warm winter, so far, and dropping oil and gas prices.

That would be a nice scenario to end out the year and usher in the next earnings season that starts in  just a little more than 2 weeks.

Last week was an exceptionally slow trading week. Hopefully this week will provide an opportunity to make some trades, especially the sale of new call positions. I would like to see some more assignments this week, although at the moment there are only a handful of positions set to expire this Friday. Any opportunity to add to that list from among current positions would be a good thing, as in addition to the income received, I’d still like to reduce the total number of positions held.

With such a short trading week option premiums are going to be lower than usual, especially for the weekly variety. With some give back in volatility last week after that two day 700 point gain, there’s probably going to be less enticement to look at expanded weekly options, but that still may offer a little bit better premium.

Although last Friday was a fairly quiet trading day after a preceding 4 days of triple digit moves, including lots of intra-day volatility, there’s no reason to believe that it will be overly quiet this week, despite the calm that seems to be characterizing this morning’s open.

While I’d like to see an early week’s market climb in order to have some opportunity to sell calls, any sign of a give back of gains would be the time that I would consider adding some new positions, in the anticipation that this week could be as much of a roller coaster as last week.

Daily Market Update – December 19, 2014 (8:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6:00 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

Today’s possible trade outcomes include:

Assignments:  EBAY, FAST, GE, K, TGT

Rollovers:   none

Expirations:  AZN, GDX, JOY, LXK, MAT, SBGI

Trades if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EST, if possible.

This week’s ex-dividend positions were: GE and LVS.

There are currently no ex-dividend positions next week.

Unless there are some compelling forward month premiums on some of the current monthly option positions, I will likely not attempt to rollover the positions, in order to avoid the relatively high costs of closing out those contracts.

Daily Market Update – December 18, 2014 (Close)

Yesterday was a nice day and did a little bit to make up for the recent 5% decline in the S&P 500, but if you’re holding energy sector stocks, there’s still a long way to go.

Some of that way looked like it could be achieved this morning as oil was headed higher in the futures markets and Vladimir Putin, already in the third hour of his annual address to the Russian nation was providing a calming tone to markets, while pointing his finger at “external sources” for his nation’s economic woes.

No matter.

On the heels of yesterday’s FOMC which made a further commitment to low interest rates, the pre-open trading was showing another strong gain. Not quite the almost 300 points that were added yesterday, but a good gain, nonetheless. That gain, as it turned out was real, and was 400 points higher and more than added to yesterday’s gain.

It was especially good coming at the end of a monthly cycle and possibly helping in the objective of seeing some assignments and rollovers.

For the last two days of this monthly cycle that’s where the focus will be.

With yesterday’s gain, as well as the head fake gains that were lost on Tuesday, the temptation was to try and make some DOH Trades, but for now, there’s reason to resist those temptations, even as the market had a great gain today.

While premiums are showing some evidence of increase, there;’s still too much of a chance of seeing the same kind of gap movements, this time higher, as have been seen, especially the kind that took the energy sector lower.

That was especially true today, as the gains kept on going even after the gains in oil reversed themselves.

For the first time in a couple of weeks has come the realization that lower energy costs are great for the market and for everyone in the US.

Just wait until next week as the GDP data and revisions are released.

Today was a good day to avoid the risks associated with DOH Trades and instead just enjoy the ride.

The problem with having a DOH Trade position in the event of a gap higher is that as the volatility then falls and the trading volume dries up, as it has, it is difficult to get a rollover trade executed and you are left in a position of either taking a year end loss or not participating in the upward climb of shares that were disproportionately beaten down.

However, if the march higher continues, especially if lucky enough to see prices approaching pre-plunge levels, or at least approaching the breakeven price of a position, there may be reason to start looking at those opportunities to add half of a percent here and there.

But today didn’t seem like that day, either, as it was an especially good sign to see an uncoupling between energy prices and the overall market. Even energy stocks, which had initially reversed as did the underlying commodity, went on to recover a good portion of their gains.

Another trade that I may resist making are for those positions that have only monthly contracts and may be a little too expensive to buy back relative to the premium received for selling new positions. That includes such stocks as Fastenal, Kellogg, Lexmark, Mattel and Sinclair Broadcasting. I may rather see them expire and hope to be able to sell new calls on them, if not assigned, as the new monthly option cycle begins.

Today’s gains, however, left Fastenal and Kellogg in position to be assigned, which would be a good outcome, if it can end up that way.

Normally I look at expired positions as a failure, but sometimes they are just an expression of not wanting to endure the expense of the rollover, especially if the cost of buying back the short position is unduly high, as it often is on those relatively thinly traded monthly positions.

Meanwhile, as another earnings season begins in a month or so, some of those monthly positions may look at a February 2015 expiration date, particularly if there’s a dividend that may also be up for capture, such as  is the case with Fastenal, although assignment is still a possibility.

For now, I hope that some of these market gains continue as the realization that low energy prices can only move the economy forward as GDP can only grow when the fourth quarter statistics are  released. Ultimately, the energy sector will eventually catch up, as it always does.

That may be little solace for holding positions in that sector now, but nothing defines what cycles are all about better than commodities.

But as long as oil looks as if it as some point of stability, or maybe even climbing higher, there’s still some time to actually get that Christmas Rally that everyone has been expecting. Add to that some good retail numbers, and we’ve heard almost nothing about holiday sales as all news has been oil-centric, and you have the makings for some nice moves higher in the last 2 weeks of 2014.

Daily Market Update – December 18, 2014 (8:00 AM)

Yesterday was a nice day and did a little bit to make up for the recent 5% decline in the S&P 500, but if you’re holding energy sector stocks, there’s still a long way to go.

Some of that way may be achieved this morning as oil is headed higher in the futures markets and Vladimir Putin, already in the third hour of his annual address to the Russian nation is providing a calming tone to markets, while pointing his finger at “external sources” for his nation’s economic woes.

No matter.

On the heels of yesterday’s FOMC which made a further commitment to low interest rates, the pre-open trading is showing another strong gain. Not quite the almost 300 points that were added yesterday, but a good gain, nonetheless. That gain, if it turns out to be real, added to yesterday’s is especially good as coming at the end of a monthly cycle and possibly helping in the objective of seeing some assignments and rollovers.

For the next two days that’s where the focus will be.

With yesterday’s gain, as well as the head fake gains that were lost on Tuesday, the temptation was to try and make some DOH Trades, but for now, there’s reason to resist those temptations. While premiums are showing some evidence of increase, there;’s still too much of a chance of seeing the same kind of gap movements, this time higher, as have been seen, especially the kind that took the energy sector lower.

The problem with having a DOH Trade position in the event of a gap higher is that as the volatility then falls and the trading volume dries up, as it has, it is difficult to get a rollover trade executed and you are left in a position of either taking a year end loss or not participating in the upward climb of shares that were disproportionately beaten down.

However, if the march higher continues, especially if lucky enough to see prices approaching pre-plunge levels, or at least approaching the breakeven price of a position, there may be reason to start looking at those opportunities to add half of a percent here and there.

Another trade that I may resist making are for those positions that have only monthly contracts and may be a little too expensive to buy back relative to the premium received for selling new positions. That includes such stocks as Fastenal, Kellogg, Lexmark, Mattel and Sinclair Broadcasting. I may rather see them expire and hope to be able to sell new calls on them, if not assigned, as the new monthly option cycle begins.

Normally I look at expired positions as a failure, but sometimes they are just an expression of not wanting to endure the expense of the rollover, especially if the cost of buying back the short position is unduly high, as it often is on those relatively thinly traded monthly positions.

Meanwhile, as another earnings season begins in a month or so, some of those monthly positions may look at a February 2015 expiration date, particularly if there’s a dividend that may also be up for capture, such as  is the case with Fastenal, although assignment is still a possibility.

For now, I hope that some of these market gains continue as the realization that low energy prices can only move the economy forward as GDP can only grow when the fourth quarter statistics are  released. Ultimately, the energy sector will eventually catch up, as it always does.

That may be little solace for holding positions in that sector now, but nothing defines what cycles are all about better than commodities.

But as long as oil looks as if it as some point of stability, or maybe even climbing higher, there’s still some time to actually get that Christmas Rally that everyone has been expecting. Add to that some good retail numbers, and we’ve heard almost nothing about holiday sales as all news has been oil-centric, and you have the makings for some nice moves higher in the last 2 weeks of 2014.

Daily Market Update – December 17, 2014 (Close)

Yesterday, as far as volatility goes, would be a really hard day to match.

While the big story of the day was the collapse of the Russian Ruble, it was still the price of oil that dictated in which direction the market went, and as oil waxed and waned during the day, so did the market.

Going from the various peaks to troughs and back throughout the day, without regard to any minor moves back and forth, the DJIA moved about 700 points, finally finishing with a tripe digit loss after having been more than 200 points higher.

Lately the day before an FOMC Statement release day has been inexplicably a strong day for markets. For a while some were crediting that phenomenon for the market’s strength yesterday, but it became clear that oil was still in charge of everything. The recovery in oil earlier in the day, beginning before the opening bell helped to greatly reduce the losses in the futures trading as reactions were coming in to the 65% increase in the Bank of Russia’s key lending rate and the collapse of the Ruble.

This morning oil is again down sharply, yet the futures are pointing higher, maybe as there’s some optimism regarding the FOMC and then looking ahead another hour or so, when Janet Yellen begins her press conference.

Other than on the occasion of her very first press conference when she made some vague comments regarding timeframes for action, she has done nothing but lift markets during her question and answer sessions.

Today was a little different, though.

Not only was the market nicely higher before the FOMC, but it skyrocketed after the release, as nothing really changed with regard to interest rates.

What did change was that during the press conference the market gave up about 100 points, falling to only about 150 points higher and then immediately made it all back and more as soon as she finished the press conference.

Go figure.

Today, the issue at hand was whether the FOMC would drop its “considerable time” language, which would indicate that interest rate hikes were going to be coming sooner, rather than later.

After today’s really big shocker regarding Cuba, maybe the phrase should have been “tiempo considerable.”

Since the FOMC is admittedly “data drive,” it’s hard to see how they could ignore last week’s decreases in PPI and the dropping rate on 10 Year Treasuries. While decreased energy costs and an increasing employment rate should send prices and wagers higher, that’s still a theoretical outcome, whereas the actual data isn’t looking as if it shows inflation in the immediate future.

Yesterday did look promising for a while as the rebounds were all across the board, but that sea of green faded very decisively, although the energy sector did maintain its gains, just at levels far lower than they had been earlier in the day.

Not today.

Both days, though, It was tempting to consider selling some DOH calls on some positions, but in the back of your mind you have to be concerned about a sudden pop higher in prices, especially through the energy sector and the chance of seeing positions assigned away when you would really prefer that not be the case.

As long as the option market continues to have very light volume the ability to rollover such positions in order to prevent assignment is difficult and so the risk-reward proposition becomes more risky, even as the reward, in the form of option premiums, climbs along with the volatility.

Still, even if there is another strong spike higher today and even if coming before and then again after the FOMC, there may not be too much justification in taking the kind of risk associated with DOH Trades.

And so it was.

Given that there has been considerable gaps down in the prices of many stocks it wouldn’t be inconceivable that there could also be gap ups once the fire is lit, so it seems only right to give it yet another day and maybe look at selling DOH calls for next week, which is a trade shortened one, anyway.

As we got set to begin trading for this morning, the S&P 500 was about 5% off from its recent highs, which has been the average for these every other month declines. The last one, however, was almost a bona fide correction, approaching 10%, so it was hard to have the same confidence that this is just another in a series of mini-corrections over nearly the past 3 years that will simply end up taking us to even more new highs.

This afternoon’s explosive move higher, very much on the back of stronger oil prices first and then a more dovish FOMC, gave some confidence that this was, indeed, one of those mini-corrections. If so, the next few weeks could achieve the kind of December everybody had been expecting, especially if retail holds up.

But if oil has further downside potential there has to be some concern that the market will continue to follow lower, despite the logic that such decreases should end up being a net positive. The one saving grace is that energy sector prices tend to recover more quickly than the underlying commodity and any economic news that indicates that falling energy prices are actually the tonic for the economy that we thought it would be should send stock prices broadly higher.

A one day move, like today, could be a taste for what’s in store, if only we knew when it would be for real and sustained.

Daily Market Update – December 17, 2014 (8:30 AM)

Yesterday, as far as volatility goes, would be a really hard day to match.

While the big story of the day was the collapse of the Russian Ruble, it was still the price of oil that dictated in which direction the market went, and as oil waxed and eaned during the day, so did the market.

Going from the various peaks to troughs and back throughout the day, without regard to any minor moves back and forth, the DJIA moved about 700 points, finally finishing with a tripe digit loss after having been more than 200 points higher.

Lately the day before an FOMC Statement release day has been inexplicably a strong day for markets. For a while some were crediting that phenomenon for the market’s strength yesterday, but it became clear that oil was still in charge of everything. The recovery in oil earlier in the day, beginning before the opening bell helped to greatly reduce the losses in the futures trading as reactions were coming in to the 65% increase in the Bank of Russia’s key lending rate and the collapse of the Ruble.

This morning oil is again down sharply, yet the futures are pointing higher, maybe as there’s some optimism regarding the FOMC and then looking ahead another hour or so, when Janet Yellen begins her press conference.

Other than on the occassion of her very first press conference when she made some vague comments regarding timeframes for action, she has done nothing but lift markets during her question and answer sessions.

Today, the issue at ahnd is whether the FOMC will drop its “considerable time” language, which would indicate that interest rate hikes were going to be coming sooner, rather than later.

Since the FOMC is admittedly “data drive,” it’s hard to see how they would ignore last week’s decreases in PPI and the dropping rate on 10 Year Treasuries. While decreased energy costs and an increasing employment rate should send prices and wagers higher, that’s still a theoretical outcome, whereas the actual data isn’t looking as if it shows inflation in the immediate future.

Yesterday did look promising for a while as the rebounds were all across the board, but that sea of green faded very decisively, although the energy sector did maintain its gains, just at levels far lower than they had been earlier in the day.

It was tempting to consider selling some DOH calls on some positions, but in the back of your mind you have to be concerned about a sudden pop higher in prices, especially through the energy sector and the chance of seeing positions assigned away when you would really prefer that not be the case.

As long as the option market continues to have very light volume the ability to rollover uch positions in order to prevent assignment is difficult and so the risk-reward proposition becomes more risky, even as the reward, in the form of option premiums, climbs along with the volatilty.

Still, even if there is another strong spike higher today and even if coming before and then again after the FOMC, there may not be too much justification in taking the kind of risk associated with DOH Trades.

Given that there has been considerable gaps down in the prices of many stocks it wouldn’t be inconceivable that there could also be gap ups once the fire is lit.

At the moment, as we get set to begin trading for this morning, the S&P 500 is about 5% off from its recent highs, which has been the average for these every other month declines. The last one, however, was almost a bona fide correction, approaching 10%, so it’s hard to have the same confidence that this is just another in a series of mini-corrections over nearly the past 3 years that will simply end up taking us to even more new highs.

As long as oil has further downside potential there has to be some concern that the market will continue to follow lower, despite the logic that such decreases should end up being a net positive. The one saving grace is that energy sector prices tend to recover more quickly than the underlying commodity and any economic news that indicates that falling energy prices are actually the tonic for the economy that we thought it would be should send stock prices broadly higher.

Daily Market Update – December 16, 2014 (Close)

While our stock market has been struggling at a time when logic would have it thriving, except for the energy sector, it has been going lower and lower, as energy prices continue to decline and take all stocks along for the ride.

Thus far, though, the overall decline is about 4%, although depending on an individual portfolio’s exposure to oil and commodities, it can be much more. The declines in the energy sector have been absolutely stunning and sudden and there’s no indication of when they end is at hand.

The longest period of declining energy prices in the last 30 years lasted for about 2 years and took oil prices down by 50%. Interestingly, energy stocks didn’t stay in their funk anywhere near that long, starting their recovery at the 4 month period.

Additionally, the most steep decline was just 6 years ago, going from $133 to $41 over a period of 6 months.

Yesterday, at least for a little while it appeared as if there would be some bounce from the past Friday’s 300+ point loss, but that disappeared, then came back and then disappeared again, ending just a hair shy of another triple digit loss.

That’s volatility and it appeared to be related to a reversal in oil, which had shown some stability early in the session and then went on to rack up even more losses.

But that volatility was just a prelude to that seen in this morning’s early futures trading, as oil was again lower. The difference is that it probably wasn’t what drove the market to change its course.

This morning the very early futures trading was indicating a moderate advance and then suddenly turned around.

It did so as the aftermath of the Bank of Russia’s move to raise its key interest rate by 650 bps overnight, bringing the rate up to 17%, reminiscent of the late 1970s in the US.

What happened afterward, and which spooked the market was another plunge in the Ruble, adding onto yesterday’s large devaluation against the US Dollar. This morning, and it’s a rapidly changing picture, the Ruble was down to an exchange rate approaching 75 per USD, almost reaching 80 at one point, having stabilized yesterday at 60, despite massive Russian intervention.

For those that remember the late 1990s, before the dot com bubble was the Russian Ruble Crisis, which is eerily reminiscent of what may be unfolding right now. During what what also known as “The Russian Flu,” the S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% in less than 2 months, but was fully recovered about 3 months after those lows.

Probably not too coincidentally, the price of oil had dropped by nearly 50% from 1996 to 1998 and the recovery from that “flu” only began as oil prices started climbing.

This morning’s news and events represent another hurdle, but as the morning progressed heading into the opening bell the selling was moderating and hopefully some sanity and even more importantly, buyers, will re-appear and snap up what they believe to be bargains.

I, for one, was grateful as that turned out to be the case, but it was certainly not the theme for the day.

That was reserved for reversals, as the market steadily alternated between large gains and losses.

Going from peak to trough and trough to peak and over again, the DJIA moved about 700 points on the day.

While the Ruble stabilized, oil which had reversed its decline then went on the decline again.

Today, though was a good day not to chase the oil stocks, which went nicely higher and then gave up about 50% of their gains. They probably were propelled higher as most traders realize that historically the stocks move higher before the beaten down commodities do, as in 1998, but today, if just getting into positions, was a day to add to losses by the time the day came to its end.

As a holder of positions, I’m certainly not looking to lighten up on energy stocks, as they are the very definition of what being cyclical is all about.

If only someone could now define the time frame, that would be nice.

Tomorrow will bring the FOMC statement, which was all but forgotten today, as Russia, the Ruble and oil stole all attention.

Hopefully Janet Yellen will be able to put a positive spin on things as she closes out the year with a press conference and can inject some calm into a very uncetain environment.

Daily Market Update – December 16, 2014 (8:30 AM)

While our stock market has been struggling at a time when logic would have it thriving, except for the energy sector, it has been going lower and lower, as energy prices continue to decline and take all stocks along for the ride.

Thus far, though, the overall decline is about 4%, although depending on an individual portfolio’s exposure to oil and commodities, it can be much more. The declines in the energy sector have been absolutely stunning and sudden and there’s no indication of when they end is at hand.

The longest period of declining energy prices in the last 30 years lasted for about 2 years and took oil prices down by 50%. Interestingly, energy stocks didn’t stay in their funk anywhere near that long, starting their recovery at the 4 month period.

Additionally, the most steep decline was just 6 years ago, going from $133 to $41 over a period of 6 months.

Yesterday, at least for a little while it appeared as if there would be some bounce from the past Friday’s 300+ point loss, but that disappeared, then came back and then disappeared again, ending just a hair shy of another triple digit loss.

That’s volatility and it appeared to be related to a reversal in oil, which had shown some stability early in the session and then went on to rack up even more losses.

But that volatility was just a prelude to that seen in this morning’s early futures trading, as oil was again lower. The difference is that it probably wasn’t what drove the market to change its course.

This morning the very early futures trading was indicating a moderate advance and then suddenly turned around.

It did so as the aftermath of the Bank of Russia’s move to raise its key interest rate by 650 bps overnight, bringing the rate up to 17%, reminiscent of the late 1970s in the US.

What happened afterward, and which spooked the market was another plunge inthe Ruble, adding onto yesterday’s large devaluation against the US Dollar. This morning, and it’s a rapidly changing picture, the Ruble is down to an exchange rate approaching 75 per USD, almost reaching 80 at one point, having stabilized yesterday at 60, despite massive Russian intervention.

For those that remember the late 1990s, before the dot com bubble was the Russian Ruble Crisis, which is eerily reminiscent of what may be unfolding right now. During what what also known as “The Russian Flu,” the S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% in less than 2 months, but was fully recovered about 3 months after those lows.

Probably not too coincidentally, the price of oil had dropped by nearly 50% from 1996 to 1998 and the recovery from that “flu” only began as oil prices started climbing.

This morning’s news and events represent another hurdle, but as the morning progressed heading into the opening bell the selling was moderating and hopefully some sanity and even more importantly, buyers, will re-appear and snap up what they believe to be bargains.

I, for one, would be grateful if that turns out to be the case, but am certainly not looking to lighten up on energy stocks, which are the very definition of what being cyclical is all about.

Daily Market Update – December 15, 2014 (Close)

It’s hard to remember when a single story has been so influential for so long, to the point of almost knocking everything else out of everyone’s mind.

Crimea, Greece, government shutdown’s, sequestration and so much more, but they weren’t very lasting and over-powering kinds of stories that caused the market to succumb to those stories to the complete exclusion of everything else.

The price of oil continues to be the sole focus of attention during a season when the primary focus is on holiday retail sales. While we’ve seen price declines in the past, it seems as if the discussion is typically around price increases and we tend to shrug it off when those happen, as there is often a positive impact on the stock market when energy prices are increasing.

So far, we’ve been waiting for the logical outcome of sharply lower prices but haven’t seen any increase in stocks and aren’t yet hearing of any increases in consumer discretionary spending, which could single-handedly rescue the holiday shopping season and be the tonic that the market is looking for.

This week, as the pre-open futures was mid-way through its trading, appeared as if it was going to recover some of this past Friday’s large decline which saw last week ending up being the worst in more than 2 years, with the S&P 500 going 3.5% lower, as it was a lot more than the energy sector that felt the pain.

For a while after te opening bell it looked as if that would be the way the market would trade, but as oil reversed and headed lower, so too did the market. Another attempt to rally from there went nowhere and the market just finished lower again, unable to escape from the “good news” of lower energy prices.

With no assignments last week and a large number of positions set to expire this week, which also marks the end of the December 2014 cycle, I didn’t anticipate being very active in pursuing new positions. The past 6 weeks have seen an average of 3 new positions each week and although that represents a low threshold, I don’t know if even that will be met, as my focus will be very much centered on trying to steer this week’s expiring positions toward assignment or rollover. WIth only General Electric added today the week got off to a slow start, as even the oils, which looked appealing for a while, turned out to be anything but appealing, as they lost traction quickly.

Last week it turned out to have been fortunate to have rolled over a number of positions early in the week rather than waiting for the more common timing of Thursday or Friday. There may again be reason to consider early rollovers this week, as there is an end of the year FOMC Statement release and a follow up pres conference by Janet Yellen.

The former has been a non-event in the past two months, while the press conference usually offers some kind of relief rally.

The question at hand this week is whether the FOMC will finally drop the “considerable time” wording in the statement which would mean that interest rate hikes are coming sooner, rather than later.In the short term, news o such an increase, although expected, would likely lead to some selling, as higher rates aren’t the best thing for stocks. However, in the longer term any increase would be tiny and there’s no reason to expect incremental increases, as seen during the Greenspan era.

Recent data, however, don’t give any reason to believe that inflation is coming our way, although the drop in energy prices could be just the impetus to see a significant increase in GDP. However, the FOMC is supposed to be data driven rather than persuaded by theoretical events, so it should be a surprise to see a change in the phrasing, especially after last week’s PPI data was released.

As the market was momentarily looking to get the week off to a more optimistic start than which it ended last week, the aim early on was to find any opportunity to sell new calls or simply generate some income from positions that aren’t likely to be assigned. The optimism didn’t last very long and not too much was done, other than a sale of LuLuLemon calls, taking a longer term view.

Although the pre-open futures was heading higher and taking volatility lower before trading began, the increase in volatility over the past two weeks may continue to offer some opportunity to still look at expanded option expirations in an effort to keep the diversification in expiration dates going, without giving up too much in premium.in exchange for locking in more than a week of coverage.

The hope that oil prices would follow the morning’s recovery and find some stable level turned out to be a wasted one and any reason for the market itself to regain some stability and maybe even optimism will have to wait yet another day.

It would, however, take lots of that optimism to restore this December to the kind of December that most people have come to expect and the opportunities are getting less and less.

Daily Market Update – December 15, 2014 (8:30 AM)

It’s hard to remember when a single story has been so influential for so long, to the point of almost knocking everything else out of everyone’s mind.

Crimea, Greece, government shutdown’s, sequestration and so much more, but they weren’t very lasting and over-powering kinds of stories that caused the market to succumb to those stories to the complete exclusion of everything else.

The price of oil continues to be the sole focus of attention during a season when the primary focus is on holiday retail sales. While we’ve seen price declines in the past, it seems as if the discussion is typically around price increases and we tend to shrug it off when those happen, as there is often a positive impact on the stock market when energy prices are increasing.

So far, we’ve been waiting for the logical outcome of sharply lower prices but haven’t seen any increase in stocks and aren’t yet hearing of any increases in consumer discretionary spending, which could single-handedly rescue the holiday shopping season and be the tonic that the market is looking for.

This week, as the pre-open futures is mid-way through its trading, appears as if it is going to recover some of this past Friday’s large decline which saw last week ending up being the worst in more than 2 years, with the S&P 500 going 3.5% lower, as it was a lot more than the energy sector that felt the pain.

With no assignments last week and a large number of positions set to expire this week, which also marks the end of the December 2014 cycle, I don’t anticipate being very active in pursuing new positions. The past 6 weeks have seen an average of 3 new positions each week and although that represents a low threshold, I don’t know if even that will be met, as my focus will be very much centered on trying to steer this week’s expiring positions toward assignment or rollover.

Last week it turned out to have been fortunate to have rolled over a number of positions early in the week rather than waiting for the more common timing of Thursday or Friday. There may again be reason to consider early rollovers this week, as there is an end of the year FOMC Statement release and a follow up pres conference by Janet Yellen.

The former has been a non-event in the past two months, while the press conference usually offers some kind of relief rally.

The question at hand this week is whether the FOMC will finally drop the “considerable time” wording in the statement which would mean that interest rate hikes are coming sooner, rather than later.In the short term, news o such an increase, although expected, would likely lead to some selling, as higher rates aren’t the best thing for stocks. However, in the longer term any increase would be tiny and there’s no reason to expect incremental increases, as seen during the Greenspan era.

Recent data, however, don’t give any reason to believe that inflation is coming our way, although the drop in energy prices could be just the impetus to see a significant increase in GDP. However, the FOMC is supposed to be data driven rather than persuaded by theoretical events, so it should be a surprise to see a change in the phrasing, especially after last week’s PPI data was released.

As the market may get the week off to a more optimistic start than which it ended last week, the aim will be to find any opportunity to sell new calls or simply generate some income from positions that aren’t likely to be assigned.

Although the pre-open futures is heading higher and taking volatility lower, the increase in volatility over the past two weeks may offer some opportunity to still look at expanded option expirations in an effort to keep the diversification in expiration dates going, without giving up too much in premium.in exchange for locking in more than a week of coverage.

Hopefully oil prices will follow the morning’s recovery and find some stable level. That could provide some reason for the market itself to regain some stability and maybe even optimism. It would, however, take lots of that optimism to restore this December to the kind of December that most people have come to expect.