Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – November 6, 2014 (Close)

Yesterday was one of those days that had some post-election spillover, but no real enthusiasm. Still the market hit more new highs.

Today the market awaited some word from the ECB as to whether, or when, it will take a walk down the same path as the Federal Reserve had taken the US.

If any suggestion of that would have come today, and there was no expectation of it, our markets would likely have gone significantly higher. There’s no expectation of it, however, because they had previously existed and went unanswered on a couple of occasions.

But it didn’t matter, because after some wavering it was another day of record highs.

The market had been in an early holding mode until some word would come from across the ocean. It was fairly widely expected that if there was nothing new, there wouldn’t likely be a negative reaction, with everyone instead probably preparing for tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report.

There shouldn’t be too much of a surprise in that either, but for well over a year the pattern has been that the market celebrates the entire week of the report and usually celebrates on the day of the report, as well.

So far, this week is living up to that pattern, but still has now just one potentially big tests ahead, having passed today’s test.

I wasn’t expecting much of anything to occur between this morning and the week’s end, but the momentum just kept carrying most everything along.

Earnings reports are now going to slow down, although retailers are still ahead and may give reasons to believe that the economy is moving forward on the basis of increased consumer spending. You would expect that at some point the fall in the unemployment rate would result in greater levels of discretionary spending and at some point that would have to translate to the bottom line.

The warning from Kohls a couple of weeks ago would seem to argue against the belief that the middle of the pack consumer is coming back, but there’s no accounting for what may make a single retailer lose or gain favor with consumers at any moment in time. It’s entirely possible that at the moment people may favor one retailer over another and could easily switch back.

As those numbers come in a final catalyst may exist to push markets even higher.

What is increasingly clear is that companies that don’t deliver on earnings or that give the slightest hesitancy in their guidance are being hit very, very hard and are not recovering in the same time frames as in past years. Most every day during earnings season there are so many large cap companies, that can’t be considered momentum kind of stock trades, that are feeling the wrath of disappointed investors. On the other hand, large jumps higher, in quantum leaps, aren’t as frequent as are the quantum leap plunges.

The new highs have come methodically, while the lows have come suddenly.

As has been the case for a while, I hoped today would offer some opportunity to sell something, but the indication wasn’t appearing in the morning’s futures trading, although some opportunities did present. What is still strikingly clear is that there are very few call option buyers around unless there is some anticipated news. The volume in everyday kind of trades is really drying up.

While the week may again see an assignment or two, any rollovers or call sales would be appreciated and I would look to add to the list of those expiring next week and at the end of the monthly option cycle.

For now, it’s just more of sitting back and seeing where things take us after tomorrow morning’s news.

Hopefully even higher.

Daily Market Update – November 6, 2014 (8:30 AM)

Yesterday was one of those days that had some post-election spillover, but no real enthusiasm. Still the market hit more new highs.

Today the market awaits some word from the ECB as to whether, or when, it will take a walk down the same path as the Federal Reserve had taken the US.

If any suggestion of that comes today, and there is no expectation of it, our markets would likely go significantly higher. There’s no expectation of it, however, because they had previously existed and went unanswered on a couple of occasions.

But the market is in a holding mode until some word comes from across the ocean and then, if there is nothing new, won’t likely react negatively, instead will probably prepare itself for tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report.

There shouldn’t be too much of a surprise in that either, but for well over a year the pattern has been that the market celebrates the entire week of the report and usually celebrates on the day of the report, as well.

So far, this week is living up to that pattern, but still has potentially big tests ahead.

I’m not expecting much of anything to occur between now and the week’s end.

Earnings reports are now going to slow down, although retailers are still ahead and may give reasons to believe that the economy is moving forward on the basis of increased consumer spending. You would expect that at some point the fall in the unemployment rate would result in greater levels of discretionary spending and at some point that would have to translate to the bottom line.

The warning from Kohls a couple of weeks ago would seem to argue against the belief that the middle of the pack consumer is coming back, but there’s no accounting for what may make a single retailer lose or gain favor with consumers at any moment in time. It’s entirely possible that at the moment people may favor one retailer over another and could easily switch back.

As those numbers come in a final catalyst may exist to push markets even higher.

What is increasingly clear is that companies that don’t deliver on earnings or that give the slightest hesitancy in their guidance are being hit very, very hard and are not recovering in the same time frames as in past years. Most every day during earnings season there are so many large cap companies, that can’t be considered momentum kind of stock trades, that are feeling the wrath of disappointed investors. On the other hand, large jumps higher, in quantum leaps, aren’t as frequent as are the quantum leap plunges.

The new highs have come methodically, while the lows have come suddenly.

As has been the case for a while, I hope today offers some opportunity to sell something, but the indication isn’t appearing in the morning’s futures trading.

While the week may again see an assignment or two, any rollovers or call sales would be appreciated and I would look to add to the list of those expiring next week and at the end of the monthly option cycle.

For now, it’s just more of sitting back and seeing where things take us.

Daily Market Update – November 5, 2014 (Close)

The election results are in and the futures were headed higher despite the reasonable certainty that this would have been the election outcome, as power shifted from one party to another and they stayed there mostly all day long.

Presumably the optimism was because the feeling is that Republican dominance is better for the economy, although history rejects that hypothesis. Besides, the economy is such a slow and lumbering entity, that no one really notices when it turns some kind of corner. It usually happens a couple of years before anyone has noticed or a couple of years after some particular measures have been taken. It may only be coincidental that those turns may be associated with a change in the political landscape that happen with great regularity.

More often than not it’s just a question of being at the right place and at the right time, just as its opposite is true.

On the other hand, maybe the optimism is tied to the belief that the split in power will lead to more adult-like behavior and the passage of more laws rather than the gridlock of the past 15 years.

Presumptive Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell sounded like a reasonable person, but as he will know, it’s easier to be an opponent than it is to be a leader.

On paper more adult-like behavior should be in our futures, but most elected officials are already plotting what they or their party need to do for 2016 and cooperation with the opposing party isn’t going to make them look any better or their opponents any worse, so it’s not clear why there would be optimism. After all, job one, isn’t getting the job that you were elected to do, done. It’s getting yourself re-elected.

Maybe that’s why the only politicians that sound reasonable are the ones that have the word “former” as part of their introduction.

In a few days we will have likely forgotten about these election results other than for what will likely be some significant chest pounding and comments about how things are now going to be different.

So with lots of time to debate the merits of the election outcome, that just brings us to what’s in store for the rest of the week. It’s a question of jobs and whether the European Central Bank will follow the  Federal Reserve and now the Bank of Japan and inject money into the economy.

That means there are any number of catalysts for this week after the election and probably not too many surprises in store. It wouldn’t at all, for example, be unusual to see the largest employment gains come after a rebuke of the existing party in power. If not this week, give it a month or two.

Going back 6 years the first increases in employment after more than a year of declines started after the 2008 election, but no one gave credit retroactively and those in power were more than willing to take credit. Again, the beauty of the stealth movements of the economy. Temporal proximity is a powerful convincer of association that may not really exist.

That’s not a uniquely Republican nor a Democrat characteristic. It’s just the way it is and we simply believe the associations as they are presented to us. That may be the answer to why, in a 2013 poll in Louisiana, a majority of the respondents blamed President Obama for the Federal government’s response to Hurricane Katrina. Are you really going to place blame on someone who is ancient history or the one who is right there and already taking blame for lots of other things?

So for the next few months there will be lots of jockeying and probably very little getting done, but then that’s no different from the past few years and the markets simply went higher and higher.

I have no problem with that, at all, as long as it begins today and it did. So here’s to tomorrow and the same belief that adults will now be in charge.

Daily Market Update – November 5, 2014 (9:00 AM)

The election results are in and the futures are heading higher despite the reasonable certainty that this would have been the election outcome, as power shifted from one party to another.

Presumably the optimism is because the feeling is that Republican dominance is better for the economy, although history rejects that hypothesis. Besides, the economy is such a slow and lumbering entity, that no one really notices when it turns some kind of corner. It usually happens a couple of years before anyone has noticed or a couple of years after some particular measures have been taken. It may only be coincidental that those turns may be associated with a change in the political landscape that happen with great regularity.

More often than not it’s just a question of being at the right place and at the right time, just as its opposite is true.

On the other hand, maybe the optimism is tied to the belief that the split in power will lead to more adult-like behavior and the passage of more laws rather than the gridlock of the past 15 years.

On paper that should be true, but most elected officials are already plotting what they or their party need to do for 2016 and cooperation with the opposing party isn’t going to make them look any better or their opponents any worse, so it’s not clear why there would be optimism. After all, job one, isn’t getting the job that you were elected to do, done. It’s getting yourself re-elected.

In a few days we will have likely forgotten about these election results other than for what will likely be some significant chest pounding and comments about how things are now going to be different.

So with lots of time to debate the merits of the election outcome, that just brings us to what’s in store for the rest of the week. It’s a question of jobs and whether the European Central Bank will follow the  Federal Reserve and now the Bank of Japan and inject money into the economy.

That means there are any number of catalysts for this week after the election and probably not too many surprises in store. It wouldn’t at all, for example, be unusual to see the largest employment gains come after a rebuke of the existing party in power. If not this week, give it a month or two.

Going back 6 years the first increases in employment after more than a year of declines started after the 2008 election, but no one gave credit retroactively and those in power were more than willing to take credit. Again, the beauty of the stealth movements of the economy. Temporal proximity is a powerful convincer of association that may not really exist.

That’s not a uniquely Republican nor a Democrat characteristic. It’s just the way it is and we simply believe the associations as they are presented to us. That may be the answer to why, in a 2013 poll in Louisiana, a majority of the respondents blamed President Obama for the Federal government’s response to Hurricane Katrina. Are you really going to place blame on someone who is ancient history or the one who is right there and already taking blame for lots of other things?

So for the next few months there will be lots of jockeying and probably very little getting done, but then that’s no different from the past few years and the markets simply went higher and higher.

I have no problem with that, at all, as long as it begins today.

Daily Market Update – November 4, 2014 (Close)

Yesterday was one of those rare days when the market did what you would have reasonably expected from it, although that isn’t the case as often as should be the case.

There was really no news, maybe a little bit of a hangover from the latter half of last week and no real reason for the market to do anything, at all.

And that’s exactly what yesterday was like. There was almost no movement within a pretty tight trading range. For all of the excitement about Friday’s announcement by the Bank of Japan, there was absolutely no carry over through the weekend and it’s unlikely that we will ever see the benefit of Japan’s Quantitative Easing as it creates, perhaps, a more appealing competitor to our own equity markets.

There wasn’t much reason to think that today would have been any different and the futures markets were indicating that it should be another quiet day, but those indications are very often not very accurate when the futures trading is listless.

The trading range today did turn out to be bigger than yesterday, but there really wasn’t too much real movement. The overall market, probably due to its bigger energy representation, which was absolutely hammered today, greatly lagged the DJIA, but still wasn’t terribly off.

The real excitement may begin tomorrow as election results come in and we may find out whether control of the Senate moves over from one party to another, although there may be a delay if run-off elections become necessary in a key state or two. Still, that result is so widely expected that there shouldn’t be too much of a reaction as one form of balance and gridlock is traded for another form of balance and gridlock.

Most people, and I suspect most investors won’t care too much about the mid-term elections and what impact they may have on policy and the economy. What it known with great certainty is that the moment those results are in the winners will already be planning their re-elections and the losers will already be mapping out strategies for 2016, when it really counts.

Tomorrow morning also brings the ADP Employment Report which sometimes has the ability to presage the really important Employment Situation Report on Friday.

In-between will possibly be some news from the ECB which could signal an EU intention to initiate Quantitative Easing, although expected, may still come as a surprise and give markets another boost.

So the latter half of the week may have reasons for the market to show some reaction and hopefully it will be in a positive direction, as it has now been a full day since having set another record closing high.

But with a couple of opening transactions already made this week and cash at its lowest point in years, I would like to simply see what most everyone wants to see with those holdings.

With volatility again at such a low level after only a couple of weeks of flirting with some more normal levels each passing day makes the sale of a weekly option less appealing, so yesterday would have been a very nice day for a market surge, especially when there’s no intention or desire to add new positions.

That didn’t happen and it didn’t look, from initial appearances, as if it would happen today, although individual opportunities could always appear, but lately, in the absence of earnings news, there has been little to no substantive movement in individual names on a daily basis. Moves have been fairly muted, especially on the upside.

Today was simply a day of waiting for tomorrow.

Daily Market Update – November 4, 2014 (8:15 AM)

Yesterday was one of those rare days when the market did what you would have reasonably expected from it, although that isn’t the case as often as should be the case.

There was really no news, maybe a little bit of a hangover from the latter half of last week and no real reason for the market to do anything, at all.

And that’s exactly what yesterday was like. There was almost no movement within a pretty tight trading range. For all of the excitement about Friday’s announcement by the Bank of Japan, there was absolutely no carry over through the weekend and it’s unlikely that we will ever see the benefit of Japan’s Quantitative Easing as it creates, perhaps, a more appealing competitor to our own equity markets.

There’s not much reason to think that today would be any different and the futures markets are indicating that it should be another quiet day, but those indications are very often not very accurate when the futures trading is listless..

The real excitement may begin tomorrow as election results come in and we may find out whether control of the Senate moves over from one party to another, although there may be a delay if run-off elections become necessary in a key state or two. Still, that result is so widely expected that there shouldn’t be too much of a reaction as one form of balance and gridlock is traded for another form of balance and gridlock.

Most people, and I suspect most investors won’t care too much about the mid-term elections and what impact they may have on policy and the economy. What it known with great certainty is that the moment those results are in the winners will already be planning their re-elections and the losers will already be mapping out strategies for 2016, when it really counts.

Tomorrow morning also brings the ADP Employment Report which sometimes has the ability to presage the really important Employment Situation Report on Friday.

In-between will possibly be some news from the ECB which could signal an EU intention to initiate Quantitative Easing, although expected, may still come as a surprise and give markets another boost.

So the latter half of the week may have reasons for the market to show some reaction and hopefully iut will be in a positive direction, as it has now been a full day since having set another record closing high.

But with a couple of opening transactions already made this week and cash at its lowest point in years, I would like to simply see what most everyone wants to see with those holdings.

With volatility again at such a low level after only a couple of weeks of flirting with some more normal levels each passing day makes the sale of a weekly option less appealing, so yesterday would have been a very nice day for a market surge, especially when there’s no intention or desire to add new positions.

That didn’t happen and it doesn’t look, from initial appearances, as if it will happen today, although individual opportunities could always appear, but lately, in the absence of earnings news, there has been little to no substantive movement in individual names on a daily basis. Moves have been fairly muted, especially on the upside.

Today may simply be a day of waiting for tomorrow.

Daily Market Update – November 3, 2014 (Close)

After all of the tumult in October when the dust finally settled the month was 2% higher and we begin November at all time highs again.

What is interesting, to me, at least, is that we are in the same position as last year at this time.

Back in November 2013, by and large, hedge funds were severely underperforming a market that would end the year about 30% higher. There was lots of speculation that those hedge funds would either be faced with closing shop or letting it ride for the remaining two months and fueling the market through substantial bets that followed the year long momentum.

Those final 2 months saw a 5% increase, but that was just barely higher than the rate for the previous 10 months. However, before the role of hedge funds attempting to rescue their performances is discounted, the market trend turned almost immediately once the new year started.

With 2 months left to go in 2014 we may again see desperate hedge funds taking off their hedges in hopes of playing catch-up and either continuing the market in its current momentum or propelling it forward.

Or they could just close up shop.

Last week saw the bubble burst for those who pinned their hopes on Quantitative Easing being delayed, yet the market ignored the disowning of the fuel that pushed it forward and pushed it forward even more.

That wasn’t expected by many and the initial response by the market seemed to be confusion rather than full speed ahead. But even more surprising was the news from the Bank of Japan. While all eyes were on the ECB and Mario Draghi, little was expected from Japan.

This morning there didn’t appear to be any follow through, but there rarely is to big events from the previous week, even if just a single trading day earlier. That sort of ambivalence was the name of the game today as trading was listless and within a pretty tight range.

Instead, this week focuses on the elections and the Employment Situation Report and with an ECB interlude on Thursday, which could act as another stimulus.

Most already expect control of the Senate to shift to Republicans, so you wouldn’t expect too much impact on Wednesday’s markets, but lately even the expected seems to come as a surprise and instead of being discounted as those sort of things usually have been, they are celebrated the following day.

Unless there is some surprise or unless the final verdict is delayed due to the need for run-off elections, the expectation is that mid-week should see some advances, but there are still the hurdles of Monday and Tuesday that have to be dealt with first.

While I’m not adverse to opening some new positions this week, the two opened today may be the full extent of buying. I still would much prefer taking advantage of any potential market strength to sell calls on existing positions. However, today’s lack of buying & with no real standouts, other than Herbalife, which went inexplicably much higher in advance of earnings, there was no opportunity to find those option sales.

That has been the aim for a while, but has been difficult to do, especially as the motive isn’t being reinforced with low volatility, It’s hard to think about putting positions at risk of assignment when the reward is so low, or that assignment would leave that position having significantly under-performed the market for the duration of its holding period.

However, I am increasingly looking at using lower than cost strike prices and accepting assignment in cases where the sum total of premiums and dividends leaves an assigned position in profit territory, solely for the purpose of raising cash reserves, as opposed to using them as “DOH Trades” to help accumulate dividends with the intention of seeing those sold option positions expire.

Like those hedge funds that may be ready to go all in, I’d love to do the same, but not so much with new cash, only with existing idle assets.

Where the opportunities may arise, I may be more willing to put them at risk of assignment or put them more in need of maintenance to prevent assignment, but I do want to see those premiums and dividends pile up.

Maybe tomorrow or maybe through the good graces of Mario Draghi.

Daily Market Update – November 3, 2014 (8:30 AM)

After all of the tumult in October when the dust finally settled the month was 2% higher and we begin November at all time highs again.

What is interesting, to me, at least, is that we are in the same position as last year at this time.

Back in November 2013, by and large, hedge funds were severely underperforming a market that would end the year about 30% higher. There was lots of speculation that those hedge funds would either be faced with closing shop or letting it ride for the remaining two months and fueling the market through substantial bets that followed the year long momentum.

Those final 2 months saw a 5% increase, but that was just barely higher than the rate for the previous 10 months. However, before the role of hedge funds attempting to rescue their performances is discounted, the market trend turned almost immediately once the new year started.

With 2 months left to go in 2014 we may again see desperate hedge funds taking off their hedges in hopes of playing catch-up and either continuing the market in its current momentum or propelling it forward.

Or they could just close up shop.

Last week saw the bubble burst for those who pinned their hopes on Quantitative Easing being delayed, yet the market ignored the disowning of the fuel that pushed it forward and pushed it forward even more.

That wasn’t expected by many and the initial response by the market seemed to be confusion rather than full speed ahead. But even more surprising was the news from the Bank of Japan. While all eyes were on the ECB and Mario Draghi, little was expected from Japan.

This morning there doesn’t appear to be any follow through, but there rarely is to big events from the previous week, even if just a single trading day earlier.

Instead, this week focuses on the elections and the Employment Situation Report.

Most already expect control of the Senate to shift to Republicans, so you wouldn’t expect too much impact on Wednesday’s markets, but lately even the expected seems to come as a surprise and instead of being discounted as those sort of things usually have been, instead they are celebrated the following day.

Unless there is some surprise or unless the final verdict is delayed due to the need for run-off elections, the expectation is that mid-week should see some advances, but there are still the hurdles of Monday and Tuesday that have to be dealt with.

While I’m not adverse to opening some new positions this week I still would much prefer taking advantage of any potential market strength to sell calls on existing positions.

That has been the aim for a while, but has been difficult to do, especially as the motive isn’t being reinforced with low volatility, It’s hard to think about putting positions at risk of assignment when the reward is so low, or that assignment would leave that position having significantly under-performed the market for the duration of its holding period.

However, I am increasingly looking at using lower than cost strike prices and accepting assignment in cases where the sum total of premiums and dividends leaves an assigned position in profit territory, solely for the purpose of raising cash reserves, as opposed to using them as “DOH Trades” to help accumulate dividends with the intention of seeing those sold option positions expire.

Like those hedge funds that may be ready to go all in, I’d love to do the same, but not so much with new cash, only with existing idle assets.

Where the opportunities may arise, I may be more willing to put them at risk of assignment or put them more in need of maintenance to prevent assignment, but I do want to see those premiums and dividends pile up.

Daily Market Update – October 31, 2014 (8:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

Today’s possible trading outcomes include:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  DOW, EMC,  WFM

Expirations:   BX, GM

The following stocks were ex-dividend this week: Ford (10/29 $0.12)

The following stocks are ex-dividend next week: INTC (11/5 $0.22), WLT (11/6 $0.01)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made by 3:30 PM EDT.

Daily Market Update – October 30, 2014 (Closed)

I really did expect some kind of a big move yesterday to come in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting. Sometimes that big move is simply a knee-jerk, sometimes it is a sustained move to finish the day.

Sometimes it is the next day, but frequently that next day is in the opposite direction.

Thanks to Visa, which contributed about 150 points to the DJIA gain of 221 points. The rest of the market eventually turned positive, but looked like it had to be pulled kicking and screaming. Then, it looked like it enjoyed what Visa was having.

For the past year, every FOMC Statement release has been met in a positive manner, especially those alternate months when Janet Yellen held her post-FOMC press conference.

This time around the reaction was pretty muted, but it was negative and in the early morning the indication was of some continuing negative tone. Excluding Visa that tone continued for the first two hours of trading.

The surprise of not having seen a large movement yesterday came because for the first time in about a year or more, there was reason to believe that there’s a movement to the hawkish side on the Federal Reserve, which now may mean that interest rate hikes will come sooner rather than later.

Even though every one knows that hikes are coming sooner or later the stock market doesn’t like that sort of thing and at the first whiff of it occurring the market will react with shock, as if it was the first time anyone had heard of such a  thing.

Just days ago there were those saying that the original thought that those increases would come somewhere around the middle of 2015, would now be moved to early 2016. That was bullish for stocks.

Suddenly, however, there is talk that it will be early 2015.

The fact that the two previous dissenters, both hawks, were now in support of the statement and a dove was now a dissenter says something that should have caused market bulls to question how much longer the party would continue..

The FOMC Statement also clearly was not in alignment with the comments made by James Bullard, which many attributed to the sudden market recovery from a 9% drop.

So, putting it all together, the anticipated reaction should have been strongly negative.

But it wasn’t. Far from it, in fact, even without Visa in the mix.

For now, I just want to end the week with some assignments. Those haven’t been very frequent lately and they could come in handy to either re-invest or store for some time in the future.

I started this morning still hopeful that the last two days of this week would offer some opportunity to generate income, but those opportunities have been somewhat more difficult lately, but for an unexpected reason.

There have been just too few call options buyers to be found with so many positions not even having a single bid. In such cases you can’t really close a bid – ask gap through compromising on price. You need to have an able body on the other end to compromise with to make the sale. Fortunately, there were some of those able bodies around for Las Vegas Sands and T-Mobile today, but they weren’t there for those, either, earlier in the week.

That seems like an odd situation as the market is recovering from that 9% drop and did so in very convincing and rapid fashion. Past history would have suggested plenty of people betting on further market moves through their options market activity. Options buyers usually go on hunches or follow momentum. Either they have no hunches or don’t believe the momentum.

Overall, the Put/Call ratio over the past 2 weeks is higher than in the last 8 years, so it looks as if the the skew may be toward expecting declines, but that skew is probably enhanced by the increased used in portfolio protection, especially at low pricing.

If you really want to see the imbalance of put action, look no further than Intel, which had absolutely incredible put volume today both for this week’s expiring option and November 14th. In this case the complete absence of news pointed solely to speculative action in markets with great expectations for even more abrupt drops ahead, although the weekly put trade today was an in the money variety at $33.50. The week of November 14th expiry puts, however, were focused on the $31.50 and $32 strike and came at various times during the trading session, but also in very large quantity.

Since the option market usually gets it wrong, my hope is that the paucity in call activity and the skew toward puts is a sign of some further market advance.

Again, I don’t mind going along for the ride right now and will take gains in any way they may come.

Daily Market Update – October 30, 2014 (9:00 AM)

I really did expect some kind of a big move yesterday to come in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting. Sometimes that big move is simply a knee-jerk, sometimes it is a sustained move to finish the day.

Sometimes it is the next day, but frequently that next day is in the opposite direction.

For the past year, every FOMC Statement release has been met in a positive manner, especially those alternate months when Janet Yellen held her post-FOMC press conference.

This time around the reaction was pretty muted, but it was negative and so far this morning the early indication is of some continuing negative tone.

The surprise of not having seen a large movement comes in because for the first time in about a year or more, there is reason to believe that there’s a movement to the hawkish side on the Federal Reserve, which now may mean that interest rate hikes will come sooner rather than later.

Even though every one knows that hikes are coming sooner or later the stock market doesn’t like that sort of thing and at the first whiff of it occurring the market will react with shock, as if it was the first time anyone had heard of such a  thing.

Just days ago there were those saying that the original thought that those increases would come somewhere around the middle of 2015, would now be moved to early 2016. That was bullish for stocks.

Suddenly, however, there is talk that it will be early 2015.

The fact that the two previous dissenters, both hawks, were now in support of the statement and a dove was now a dissenter says something that should have caused market bulls to question how much longer the party would continue..

The FOMC Statement also clearly was not in alignment with the comments made by James Bullard, which many attributed to the sudden market recovery from a 9% drop.

So, putting it all together, the anticipated reaction should have been strongly negative.

But it wasn’t.

FOr now, I just want to end the week with some assignments. Those haven’t been very frequent lately and they could come in handy to either re-invest or store for some time in the future.

I’m still hopeful that the last two days of this week will offer some opportunity to generate some income, but those opportunities have been somewhat more difficult lately, but for an unexpected reason.

There have been just too few call options buyers to be found with so many positions not even having a single bid. In such cases you can’t really close a bid – ask gap through compromising on price. You need to have an able body on the other end to compromise with to make the sale.

That seems like an odd situation as the market is recovering from that 9% drop and did so in very convincing and rapid fashion. Past history would have suggested plenty of people betting on further market moves through their options market activity. Options buyers usually go on hunches or follow momentum. Either they have no hunches or don’t believe the momentum.

Overall, the Put/Call ratio over the past 2 weeks is higher than in the last 8 years, so it looks as if the the skew may be toward expecting declines, but that skew is probably enhanced by the increased used in portfolio protection, especially at low pricing.

Since the option market usually gets it wrong, my hope is that the paucity in call activity and the skew toward puts is a sign of some further market advance.

Again, I don’t mind going along for the ride right now and will take gains in any way they may come.

Daily Market Update – October 29, 2014 (Close)

Other than the fact that recent months have seen rallies on the day before an FOMC Statement release, there really wasn’t any reason to have expected yesterday’s nearly 200 point climb.

Although there was a gap higher to start the day, a larger move higher started at about 1 PM, with no real news to account for that optimism.

It really is very confusing to understand what is going on, particularly if you believe that the recent abrupt bounce higher of the nearly past two weeks has been due to the suggestion that the Federal Reserve wouldn’t be exiting its Quantitative Easing policies this month, as scheduled.

It would seem then that it is a binary bet that is on the table. Either QE ends or it doesn’t and that was a fairly big bet being made yesterday.

Of course, there were those who believed that yesterday’s market was an expression of confidence that the market could continue to thrive without QE continuing and then there were those who believed that the 200 points tacked on was an expression of the FOMC’s decision to continue some form of QE.

At least we would finally get to have some idea this afternoon, but I don’t think anything was really cleared up, despite the fact that we now know that QE has come to its end.

If the past few months have been any indication, in fact, if Janet Yellen’s tenure as the Federal Reserve Chairman is any indication, the market would interpret whatever is contained in the statement as another reason to move higher. But that wasn’t what happened today as there were some really mixed signals that left you wondering whether the FOMC was beginning to take on a more hawkish posture.

While the recent strength has essentially eroded all of the gains in volatility, at this point I wouldn’t have minded seeing the gains continue, as I would like to see some assignments getting made and the opportunity to replenish my cash reserves, which are at a 5 year or more low point.

Today’s market never really offered that opportunity and got moderately weaker after the FOMC release, before recovering somewhat.

Yesterday’s really unexpected rally was simply a good opportunity to take a break and let the momentum carry you along, but in the right direction. Today did nothing other than to create a need to beware of tomorrow as people have a chance to digest what things mean and to position themselves, accordingly.

I would think that for those that were encouraged by James Bullard there has to be a sense of becoming deflated.

Yesterday, the trade in Ford, in order to capture the dividend, was one of those that also got taken along for the ride. I really didn’t expect it to breech the $14.12 level, which would have made it susceptible for early assignment. After having gotten to about $14.15 it reversed course and fell to about $14.07 with a bit more than an hour to go in trading. But that final hour carried everything along and Ford shares went back up to $14.16 so it was time to do that rollover, although the one day return wouldn’t have been too bad, particularly if enough shares were held, but the potential 2 week return was even better.

As it would turn out, no one reported having had their unrolled shares assigned early, anyway. Although it was questionable whether those shares would be assigned early, because the closing price was only a few pennies above that $14.12 threshold and there were still 3 days left on the contract, I look at the lack of assignments as a sign of bearishness, at least in shares of Ford, if not in the market in general.

Today was going to be a “wait and see” kind of day anyway. from the onset, but with the exception of a single DOH trade in Abercrombie and Fitch, that’s how it remained. Since Wednesday’s are usually the slowest trading day of my week, even when trading frequently, as has been the case up until the past couple of weeks, there was plenty of reason to sit and wait until the 2 PM release, but as it turned out no reason to do anything otherwise after 2 PM.

While I would have liked the opportunity to take advantage of any pop up in the market before that FOMC release  to sell some options, it never came, just as the futures trading predicted would have been the likely case. I would have  jumped at that opportunity.

Unfortunately, neither yesterday nor today were there many buyers of options and very large bid – ask spreads existed couldn’t really be bridged, as I tried to get option sales made in a number of positions yesterday, but without much luck, other than for Kellogg and Ford. Today I didn’t really even try very much, as there were so many stocks with absolutely no bids to buy at all.

That difficulty indicated to me a less optimistic option market, at least on the call side of the equation. Few are betting on a continued climb.

Another strong move higher today could have changed that and might have brought more call buyers back into the market. For today the FOMC offered nothing to entice people into becoming optimistic ready to drive prices even higher.

But there’s always tomorrow.

Daily Market Update – October 29, 2014 (9:00 AM)

Other than the fact that recent months have seen rallies on the day before an FOMC Statement release, there really wasn’t any reason to have expected yesterday’s nearly 200 point climb.

Although there was a gap higher to start the day, a larger move higher started at about 1 PM, with no real news to account for that optimism.

It really is very confusing to understand what is going on, particularly if you believe that the recent abrupt bounce higher of the nearly past two weeks has been due to the suggestion that the Federal Reserve wouldn’t be exiting its Quantitative Easing policies this month, as scheduled.

It would seem then that it is a binary bet that is on the table. Either QE ends or it doesn’t and that was a fairly big bet being made yesterday.

Of course, there were those who believed that yesterday’s market was an expression of confidence that the market could continue to thrive without QE continuing and then there were those who believed that the 200 points tacked on was an expression of the FOMC’s decision to continue some form of QE.

At least we’ll have some idea this afternoon.

If the past few months have been any indication, in fact, if Janet Yellen’s tenure as the Federal Reserve Chairman is any indication, the market will interpret whatever is contained in the statement as another reason to move higher.

While the recent strength has essentially eroded all of the gains in volatility, at this point I wouldn’t mind seeing the gains continue, as I would like to see some assignments getting made and the opportunity to replenish my cash reserves, which are at a 5 year or more low point.

Yesterday’s really unexpected rally was simply a good opportunity to take a break and let the momentum carry you along, but in the right direction.

The trade in Ford, in order to capture the dividend, was one of those that also got taken along for the ride. I really didn’t expect it to breech the $14.12 level, which would have made it susceptible for early assignment. After having gotten to about $14.15 it reversed course and fell to about $14.07 with a bit more than an hour to go in trading. But that final hour carried everything along and Ford shares went back up to $14.16 so it was time to do that rollover, although the one day return wouldn’t have been too bad, particularly if enough shares were held, but the potential 2 week return was even better.

Today will probably be a “wait and see” kind of day. SInce Wednesday’s are usually the slowest trading day of my week, even when trading frequently, as has been the case up until the past couple of weeks, there’s even better reason to sit and wait until 2 PM.

Of course, if any strength pops up in the market before that FOMC release and the opportunity presents to sell some options, I would jump at that opportunity. Unfortunately, yesterday there were very few buyers of options and very large bid – ask spreads that couldn’t really be bridged, as I tried to get option sales made in a number of positions, but without much luck, other than for Kellogg and Ford.

That difficulty indicated to me a less optimistic option market, at least on the call side of the equation.

Another strong move higher today could change that and might bring more call buyers back into the market, so I hope that whatever the FOMC offers today there will be fewer disappointed people than there will be optimistic people ready to drive prices even higher.

Daily Market Update – October 28, 2014 (Close)

For those that actually look at the “Economic Calendar” there’s so little on it this week other than the FOMC Statement release on Wednesday.

If this wasn’t a busy week for earnings releases it would truly be like the last week of summer all over again.

Lately, even with a few moments of Ebola related fear, and despite all of the unresolved stories around the world, it has been very quiet. That may explain some of the market’s recent volatility. It’s like leaving a child alone, but with no source of stimulation, so they have to create their own inside of the vacuum they’re in.

Instead of focusing on the varying bits of economic information that is usually released in any given week, this week the mind is free to wander and speculate about so many things. Just like leaving a child with any structure or guidance, that kind of vacuum facing investors can be a dangerous thing.

Maybe that’s what explains today’s odd 187 point higher. There was no other reason that I could see, although the past few days before an FOMC Statement release have also been inexplicably positive, so maybe that’s the simple explanation.

For the moment all is quiet in and around Russia, Hong Kong seems to have abated, the ECB is gaining irrelevance, ISIS may be stalling and Ebola still remains other people’s problem for the most part.

In the meantime oil is at a low point that could scarcely have been imagined not too long ago and corporate earnings have, for the most part been pretty good. With the exception of energy companies those low prices have got to be good news for economic growth and corporate profits in quarters ahead.

By most measures that should mean a soaring market and maybe that constellation of factors is what helped create such a rapid reversal of the 9% decline from just a few weeks ago.

Whether those are enough to continue that climb may get some answer tomorrow as the FOMC chimes in and may give some insight on whether James Bullard’s opinions are more than just opinions and may in fact be upcoming policy.

That might be a short term tonic, but may raise more questions and uncertainty as the need for Federal Reserve intervention takes on the appearance of a medication for a chronic ailment.

Lately there has been some talk that interest rates, originally thought to be poised for a rise sometime in the first half of 2015, may now not occur until 2016. In the meantime, however, interest rates on the 10 Year Treasury Note increased by about 15%, although still far below where so many smart people thought it would be just 6 months ago.

So the question “What comes next?” is a fair one, as there are so many mixed signals at the moment and fairly few inputs to help paint any kind of picture.

This morning I heard one analysts say that the morning’s higher futures meant that it was an indication of investors saying that the world would not end if Quantitative Easing came to an end.

I suppose that one could equally be correct to say that the morning’s rise in futures was an indication that the world was embracing the idea of a continuation of Quantitative Easing.

The strength that the market showed all throughout the day was certainly an indication of something and for some reason.

The more you follow things the more you realize that the diversity of opinion is really the only thing that allows markets to function. This morning, for example, Twitter was upgraded from “sell” to :”hold” at one firm and downgraded to “sell” from “hold” at another. No matter how those ratings may be nuanced a few weeks from now in an effort to protect reputations, there’s not too much debate over the diametric differences coming from two esteemed sources, presumably with access to all of the same input information.

Imagine if it is so difficult to come to an agreement over a single company how difficult it must be to understand where markets and world economies are heading, especially when the inputs aren’t necessarily the most accurate or the books may be cooked, as may occasionally be the case in China.

So at the moment I continue to be in a “watch and wait” mode. If the market does move higher I’m more than happy to be a beneficiary of that move, but I’m not terribly enthused about betting on those prospects for now.

Based on the trades that I tried to execute today, selling new calls on shares of Chesapeake Energy, Holly Frontier, T-Mobile and Joy Global, despite their strength, all of which well out-performed the S&P 500 on the day, there was no such enthusiasm among buyers in the option market.

They weren’t biting.

I don’t know what that means.

If you’re a contrarian it means that those stocks, or maybe the market as a whole, is going higher.

If you look at things on the basis of their superficial appearances, that just means that those particular investors don’t see further upside, but as they say, that’s what makes a market.

Daily Market Update – October 28, 2014 (8:30 AM)

For those that actually look at the “Economic Calendar” there’s so little on it this week other than the FOMC Statement release on Wednesday.

If this wasn’t a busy week for earnings releases it would truly be like the last week of summer all over again.

Lately, even with a few moments of Ebola related fear, and despite all of the unresolved stories around the world, it has been very quiet. That may explain some of the market’s recent volatility. It’s like leaving a child alone, but with no source of stimulation, so they have to create their own inside of the vacuum they’re in.

Instead of focusing on the varying bits of economic information that is usually released in any given week, this week the mind is free to wander and speculate about so many things. Just like leaving a child with any structure or guidance, that kind of vacuum facing investors can be a dangerous thing.

For the moment all is quiet in and around Russia, Hong Kong seems to have abated, the ECB is gaining irrelevance, ISIS may be stalling and Ebola still remains other people’s problem for the most part.

In the meantime oil is at a low point that could scarcely have been imagined not too long ago and corporate earnings have, for the most part been pretty good. With the exception of energy companies those low prices have got to be good news for economic growth and corporate profits in quarters ahead.

By most measures that should mean a soaring market and maybe that constellation of factors is what helped create such a rapid reversal of the 9% decline from just a few weeks ago.

Whether those are enough to continue that climb may get some answer tomorrow as the FOMC chimes in and may give some insight on whether James Bullard’s opinions are more than just opinions and may in fact be upcoming policy.

That might be a short term tonic, but may raise more questions and uncertainty as the need for Federal Reserve intervention takes on the appearance of a medication for a chronic ailment.

Lately there has been some talk that interest rates, originally thought to be poised for a rise sometime in the first half of 2015, may now not occur until 2016. In the meantime, however, interest rates on the 10 Year Treasury Note increased by about 15%, although still far below where so many smart people thought it would be just 6 months ago.

So the question “What comes next?” is a fair one, as there are so many mixed signals at the moment and fairly few inputs to help paint any kind of picture.

This morning I heard one analysts say that the morning’s higher futures meant that it was an indication of investors saying that the world would not end if Quantitative Easing came to an end.

I suppose that one could equally be correct to say that the morning’s rise in futures was an indication that the world was embracing the idea of a continuation of Quantitative Easing.

The more you follow things the more you realize that the diversity of opinion is really the only thing that allows markets to function. This morning, for example, Twitter was upgraded from “sell” to :”hold” at one firm and downgraded to “sell” from “hold” at another. No matter how those ratings may be nuanced a few weeks from now in an effort to protect reputations, there’s not too much debate over the diametric differences coming from two esteemed sources, presumably with access to all of the same input information.

Imagine if it is so difficult to come to an agreement over a single company how difficult it must be to understand where markets and world economies are heading, especially when the inputs aren’t necessarily the most accurate or the books may be cooked, as may occasionally be the case in China.

So at the moment I continue to be in a “watch and wait” mode. If the market does move higher I’m more than happy to be a beneficiary of that move, but I’m not terribly enthused about betting on those prospects for now.