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Daily Market Update – December 2, 2015 (Close) Yesterday’s large gain was really a surprise, when you consider that no one should be certain about Friday’s Employment Situation Report. Nor should anyone feel certain about the FOMC decision the following week. But more importantly, no one should feel certain about how the market will react to any of the news that we’re going to get within the next 7 days. That’s because the market’s reactions haven’t had the slightest bit of consistency and have often resulted in immediate second guessing of itself, as well. This morning the ADP report arrived and that may shed some light on what may be expected on Friday. At least this morning’s futures weren’t continuing yesterday’s enthusiasm prior to that release, because that would be fairly irresponsible. What the market is doing in the early futures is showing some tentativeness, which is really what you would have expected yesterday, as well. For the most part that’s exactly what it did on Monday, but for some reason went in a totally different direction yesterday. And then guess what? It did the same today, electing to go in a completely different direction. Maybe it was Janet Yellen’s comment that she was “looking forward to the day of the first rate hike” that spooked people out as being somewhat odd, maybe even eerie. This morning there was some overnight strength in Shanghai, but that may now be a case of getting back to the dog shaking the tail and those gains may now not have any meaning for us. They certainly didn’t, as the day progressed. For the longest time, it has often been the other way around and that pattern started to changed this in the latter part of this past summer when we got very tired of the incredible up and down moves we were seeing there on a daily basis for an extended period of time. Prior to this morning’s ADP report was a speech by Dennis Lockhart of the Federal Reserve and then after the release there were 3 more, including two by Janet Yellen, so there was potentially lots to move the market’s today, even though it would still make most sense to hold steady and wait for the real big guns this Friday and next Wednesday. With a number of positions now set to expire on Friday and a desire to replenish the cash reserve again, I’m hoping that whatever the numbers show, the market takes a positive view and keeps prices at or above current levels. I will have my eye on getting whatever rollovers can be accomplished as the week progresses, but am hopeful that Friday’s news will be good and that the market it accept it as exactly that. Again, I didn’t expect to be doing too much, if any, trading today, although I wouldn’t have turned down any opportunity to put any stock just sitting around, back to work, or even rolling over anything that’s due to expire during some future week. For now, it will be just sitting and waiting to hear the news for the rest of the week and seeing the initial and maybe successive reactions and wonder what it all may portend for Friday and maybe more importantly, for next week. |
