Author Archives: TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update – March 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM tonight and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  none

Expirations:  MRO

The following were ex-dividend this week:   none

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  CY (3/29 $0.11), DOW (3/29 $0.48), EMC (3/30 $0.11)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – March 23, 2016 (Close)

When yesterday morning began, there was some reason to suspect that the calm expected for the remainder of this trading shortened week wouldn’t materialize.

Somehow, though, markets managed to pull it all together, even as man made disaster was at work.

This morning appeared to be another day of calm, although the full reckoning of what such a tragedy means in terms of disruption has probably not been calculated aside from the obvious sectors.

The hospitality and travel sectors were in focus yesterday, but other areas of the economy are at risk the longer heightened levels of security have to be maintained.

If, however, the rapid recovery in France, from their senseless tragedy nearly a year ago is any template, the recovery is fairly fast, at least on non-human terms.

This morning we heard of lock ups and enhanced security in Belgium and likely in other places to come, as well.

But life and work continue as the greatest and most overt signs of victory against those that would seek to tear down, intimidate and terrorize.

With this morning likely to be a quiet one, I looked forward to having just 2 days left for trading this week, but now, after the day is done, I wish that there were still 2 more days of trading to come.

All in all, it wasn’t really a bad day for the market, especially considering that oil dropped nearly 5%. Based on what had been happening with previous large moves, we got off pretty easily.

That is unless you had oil or commodities in over-supply in your portfolio, such as having added to your position this week.

Ahem.

With 2 new positions opened and one set for expiration this week, there was still some chance of more trading opportunity, but it wasn’t going to be too likely that i was going to be adding any new positions at this point.

Now it’s certainly less so, but so is the chance of a rollover, as the energy position expiring this week really took a big hit today.

With some ex-dividend positions next week, although none this week, there’s a little less pressure to create sources of income, but I’d still like to have that opportunity and wouldn’t be overly resistant.

Still, despite volatility dropping, I would also continue to welcome any opportunity to cover some of those uncovered positions, even it continues to mean longer term option expiration dates.

Waiting for shares to get assigned is much more palatable if you at least know that there’s some additional premium attached to that position while you do wait.

If there are dividends along the way, then even better.

However, it does take some marked broad moves higher or relative outperformance by individual positions for that to become the case and this week may not be the week for that to happen.

That won’t stop me from watching out for an increasingly rare chance this week, though.

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Daily Market Update – March 23, 2016 (7:30 AM)

When yesterday morning began, there was some reason to suspect that the calm expected for the remainder of this trading shortened week wouldn’t materialize.

Somehow, though, markets managed to pull it all together, even as man made disaster was at work.

This morning appears to be another day of calm, although the full reckoning of what such a tragedy means in terms of disruption has probably not been calculated aside from the obvious sectors.

The hospitality and travel sectors were in focus yesterday, but other areas of the economy are at risk the longer heightened levels of security have to be maintained.

If, however, the rapid recovery in France, from their senseless tragedy nearly a year ago is any template, the recovery is fairly fast, at least on non-human terms.

This morning we hear of lock ups and enhanced security in Belgium and likely in other places to come, as well.

But life and work continue as the greatest and most overt signs of victory against those that would seek to tear down, intimidate and terrorize.

With this morning likely to be a quiet one, I look forward to having just 2 days left for trading this week.

With 2 new positions opened and one set for expiration this week, there is still some chance of more trading opportunity, but it’s very unlikely that I’ll be adding any new positions at this point.

With some ex-dividend positions next week, although none this week, there’s a little less pressure to create sources of income, but I’d still like to have that opportunity and wouldn’t be overly resistant.

Still, despite volatility dropping, I would also continue to welcome any opportunity to cover some of those uncovered positions, even it continues to mean longer term option expiration dates.

Waiting for shares to get assigned is much more palatable if you at least know that there’s some additional premium attached to that position while you do wait.

If there are dividends along the way, then even better.

However, it does take some marked broad moves higher or relative outperformance by individual positions for that to become the case and this week may not be the week for that to happen.

That won’t stop me from watching out for a rare chance, though.

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Daily Market Update – March 22, 2016 (Close)

There wasn’t too much reason to suspect that there would be a lot going on this week.

With an Easter Holiday shortened trading week and very little on the economic agenda, it looked as if it just might be another week of oil dictating where things were heading.

Last week, though, gave some suggestion that maybe oil and stocks were thinking of going their own ways.

As long as they continued following each other higher, I was all for their dalliance, but disconnecting as oil heads higher isn’t the best after such broad declines over such an extended period of time.

This morning, however, as we should always be prepared whenever we think nothing is likely to happen, something happened.

Natural terror is one thing, but this time it was another incidence of man made terror.

As news was unfolding early this morning in Brussels of the carnage wreaked by terrorists, markets were fairly calm, as they tend to be when such terrible things occur.

When you consider how irrational markets can be in the short term, it’s really amazing how calm and collected they can be in the face of real uncertainty.

The kind that really matters.

Even across the continent where the carnage is real and the fear must be with everyone other than those who would bring the harm, markets are underplaying the morning’s horrible events.

Ultimately, that may be every bit as good of an antidote to terrorism as any proposed substantive erosion of privacy and rights.

This morning there wasn’t too much question where most attention would be centered.

With a single new position opened yesterday, I did have a trade out for another, as well and was hoping to still be able to make that trade today.

No one was more surprised than me to see it actually happen.

Otherwise, though, I expect it to be quiet on my end of things and don’t expect very much opportunity to find cover for uncovered positions.

With one position to roll over this week and a low likelihood of making any additional new position trades, I’ll be glued to the news for the next 2 days and hopeful that justice may arrive in short order.

As that great Harry Chapin song “Taxi” had said: 

“There was not much more for us to talk about…”

That summed it up this morning and as the rest of the day unfolded, too.

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Daily Market Update – March 22, 2016 (8:00 AM)

There wasn’t too much reason to suspect that there would be a lot going on this week.

With an Easter Holiday shortened trading week and very little on the economic agenda, it looked as if it just might be another week of oil dictating where things were heading.

Last week, though, gave some suggestion that maybe oil and stocks were thinking of going their own ways.

As long as they continued following each other higher, I was all for their dalliance, but disconnecting as oil heads higher isn’t the best after such broad declines over such an extended period of time.

This morning, however, as we should always be prepared whenever we think nothing is likely to happen, something happened.

Natural terror is one thing, but this time it was another incidence of man made terror.

As news was unfolding early this morning in Brussels of the carnage wreaked by terrorists, markets were fairly calm, as they tend to be when such terrible things occur.

Even across the continent where the carnage is real and the fear must be with everyone other than those who would bring the harm, markets are underplaying the morning’s horrible events.

Ultimately, that may be every bit as good of an antidote to terrorism as any proposed substantive erosion of privacy and rights.

This morning there’s not too much question where most attention will be centered.

With a single new position opened yesterday, I did have a trade out for another, as well and may still look to make that trade.

Otherwise, though, I expect it to be quiet on my end of things and don’t expect very much opportunity to find cover for uncovered positions.

With nothing to roll over this week and a low likelihood of making any additional new position trades, I’ll be glued to the news and hopeful that justice may arrive in short order.

As that great Harry Chapin song “Taxi” had said: 

“There was not much more for us to talk about…”

That sums it up this morning.

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Daily Market Update – March 18, 2016 (Close)

There’s not too much going on this week on the economic news front except for the release of the GDP on Friday.

Coincidentally, markets will be closed on Friday so any kind of reaction may be a little bit delayed, if at all.

After the FOMC Statement release this past week, the expectations for a robust GDP may be lessened.

In that case, a weaker GDP or at least one in line with lessened expectations may result in some market enthusiasm the following week, if anyone can still remember.

However, a better than expected GDP may lead some to believe that the next interest rate hike may come sooner than they interpreted the FOMC’s comment to suggest.

What the FOMC didn’t do was to say that there would be a delay in getting the next rate hike. What they did say, or at least what Janet Yellen said, was that there would likely not be as many rate hikes in 2016 as had been originally thought.

People hear what they want to hear and what they heard was that the next rate hike would be delayed.

This morning the market was understandably flat and it’s likely that the association with the price of oil will continue until that point that someone realizes that there’s little rationale for doing so.

Unfortunately, that may mean that markets won’t recover all that was lost as they followed oil lower, but as it stands, the market is at least at a break-even for 2016 as we get ready to bring a close to March.

Today wasn’t going to be that day, though, as there was no theme and almost no range of trading.

With an assignment last week, but no ex-dividend positions this week and no positions set for expiration, I would still like to make some trades to have some chance of generating income this week and will be again considering the energy sector.

The one trade was more on the speculative side, but as long as that sector specific volatility remains high, even after the gains seen in the energy sector, there is some added cushion from the rich option premiums to offset a portion of the risk that is still there.

I don’t think that i would get overly aggressive or spend too much in that area, but it continues to look as if there is additional opportunity there and in related companies.

Otherwise, there’s not too much reason to expect much of anything as the world is generally quiet and preparing for spring break of some sort everywhere that counts.

With markets closed on Friday and with volatility falling, there may be some reason to consider the use of an extended weekly option to get some additional premium, particularly if a dividend may also be involved.

Otherwise, I expect little in the way of personal fireworks.

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Daily Market Update – March 18, 2016 (9:00 AM)

There’s not too much going on this week on the economic news front except for the release of the GDP on Friday.

Coincidentally, markets will be closed on Friday so any kind of reaction may be a little bit delayed, if at all.

After the FOMC Statement release this past week, the expectations for a robust GDP may be lessened.

In that case, a weaker GDP or at least one in line with lessened expectations may result in some market enthusiasm the following week, if anyone can still remember.

However, a better than expected GDP may lead some to believe that the next interest rate hike may come sooner than they interpreted the FOMC’s comment to suggest.

What the FOMC didn’t do was to say that there would be a delay in getting the next rate hike. What they did say, or at least what Janet Yellen said, was that there would likely not be as many rate hikes in 2016 as had been originally thought.

People hear what they want to hear and what they heard was that the next rate hike would be delayed.

This morning the market is understandably flat and it’s likely that the association with the price of oil will continue until that point that someone realizes that there’s little rationale for doing so.

Unfortunately, that may mean that markets won’t recover all that was lost as they followed oil lower, but as it stands, the market is at least at a break-even for 2016 as we get ready to bring a close to March.

With an assignment last week, but no ex-dividend positions this week and no positions set for expiration, I would like to make some trades to have some chance of generating income this week and will be again considering the energy sector.

I don’t think that i would get overly aggressive or spend too much in that area, but it continues to look as if there is additional opportunity there and in related companies.

Otherwise, there’s not too much reason to expect much of anything as the world is generally quiet and preparing for spring break of some sort everywhere that counts.

With markets closed on Friday and with volatility falling, there may be some reason to consider the use of an extended weekly option to get some additional premium, particularly if a dividend may also be involved.

Otherwise, I expect little in the way of personal fireworks.

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Daily Market Update – March 18, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  GM

Expirations:  none

The following were ex-dividend this week:  BBY (3/15 $0.28), BBY (3/15 $0.45 Special Dividend), JOY (3/17 $0.01), LVS (3/18 $0.72)

The following are ex-dividend next week:   none

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 EDT.

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Daily Market Update – March 17, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday the focus was much more on the FOMC and Chairman Yellen.

The take home message was that the economy wasn’t growing as fast as had been hoped and the world’s economies are even worse.

As a result, the FOMC believes that it will have fewer interest rate increases in 2016 than it had planned.

Somehow, that’s good news.

I understand why it may offer some more time for people to get cheap money to play with, but the increases that the FOMC had in mind weren’t going to leave money more expensive for those borrowing, in any real terms.

Instead, a less than optimistic picture was painted, but traders liked it.

This morning, as it all sank in, stock futures had been all over the place.

They were moderately higher and then equally moderately lower, both bordering on triple digits.

In the meantime, stocks looked as if they might spend another day diverging from oil, which was again moderately higher.

Sooner or later I expected that had to happen, but as long as oil is going higher, I’d have liked to have seen some delay in everyone coming to their senses.

Based on the futures inability to get on a single frame of mind, I thought that today may very well be a day of confusion as various sides try to figure out whether yesterday’s FOMC news was good or bad.

Still, with yesterday’s close, the DJIA was at its highest for 2016, so it’s as if the first 6 weeks of trading never even happened.

It’s as if 2016 hasn’t even happened yet.

Ultimately, it seems that stocks decided to rejoin with oil and yesterday’s FOMC decision and rationale for the decision was still being embraced.

Although the market closed beneath its high for the day, the S&P 500 is now just very slightly in the red for the year as the DJIA is in the black.

Who would have thought?

Based on the number of trades that I’ve made in the first 10 weeks of 2016, you would be excused for believing 2016 had never even started yet.

Hopefully, that will change before the next interest rate hike.

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Daily Market Update – March 17, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday the focus was much more on the FOMC and Chairman Yellen.

The take home message was that the economy wasn’t growing as fast as had been hoped and the world’s economies are even worse.

As a result, the FOMC believes that it will have fewer interest rate increases in 2016 than it had planned.

Somehow, that’s good news.

I understand why it may offer some more time for people to get cheap money to play with, but the increases that the FOMC had in mind weren’t going to leave money more expensive for those borrowing, in any real terms.

Instead, a less than optimistic picture was painted, but traders liked it.

This morning, as it all sinks in, stock futures had been all over the place.

They were moderately higher and then equally moderately lower, both bordering on triple digits.

In the meantime, stocks looked as if they might spend another day diverging from oil, which was again moderately higher.

Sooner or later I expected that had to happen, but as long as oil is going higher, I’d have liked to have seen some delay in everyone coming to their senses.

Based on the futures inability to get on a single frame of mind, today may very well be a day of confusion as various sides try to figure out whether yesterday’s FOMC news was good or bad.

Still, with yesterday’s close, the DJIA was at its highest for 2016, so it’s as if the first 6 weeks of trading never even happened.

It’s as if 2016 hasn’t even happened yet.

Based on the number of trades that I’ve made in the first 10 weeks of 2016, you would be excused for believing 2016 had never even started yet.

Hopefully, that will change before the next interest rate hike.

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Daily Market Update – March 16, 2016 (Close)

Once again, the previous day did nothing to get 2016 closer to the breakeven point, but at least it didn’t push things further out of reach.

By the looks of the futures this morning, we might yet get to say the same thing, except that at 2 PM there was a scheduled big event and then maybe an even bigger one beginning about 30 minutes later.

Those would be the FOMC Statement release and Janet Yellen’s press conference, respectively.

What the market did yesterday was to dispense with the customary pre-FOMC rally, as stocks again followed oil.

First lower, but then recovering from a triple point loss to end with another visit to the baseline.

Today, it may just be a case of “wait and see” as no one really put themselves out on the line in advance of today’s events.

That was definitely the case as oil was sharply higher early in the morning before stocks opened and stocks decided not to play along.

I certainly didn’t feel like adding any risk with what could be a very big unknown, even as most expect no change in policy.

Sometimes, it’s not the change that makes the difference.

Often it’s the nuance contained in the FOMC Statement and when there also happens to be a press conference, any single word can cause gyrations.

Unfortunately, those surprises that may come are not only unpredictable in their own rights, but the reactions are equally unpredictable and subject to multiple reversals.

Today, as expected, there was no increase in rates, but what may have come as a surprise was the news that there would likely be fewer than originally expected increases for the year.

The market interpreted that positively, without thinking that means that the economy isn’t growing as had been expected.

I look at that as bad news. Maybe at some point so will others.

At the moment, I just hope to be in a somewhat better position to get some rollovers of the 2 positions expiring this week and perhaps adding to the dividend income for the week.

So, that’s not asking for much, but the market hasn’t given too much lately, anyway, leaving expectations low.

Lately Janet Yellen hasn’t sent markets higher, but I expected that she might have been able to help things out today, especially if the net result of the initial reactions to the FOMC Statement were negative. She does have a way of mollifying what could be perceived as bad news.

Instead, she neither helped nor hurt, although maybe on a net basis she helped, except that the DJIA actually closed 2 points lower than when she started speaking, despite having spiked an additional 50 points beyond the close during the beginning of her question and answer session

At least it was nice to think about something other than oil for a change

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