Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – April 21, 2016 (Close)

Markets didn’t exactly march higher yesterday, but when you put the last week together, even those relatively small gains add to an impressive move higher.

The kind of move that can withstand the kind of move seen today.

Even as earnings haven’t exactly been robust, no one is really doing too much complaining as the results are in line and perhaps even better than anyone’s expectations had been.

There is a real strategy to the idea of under-promising and then living up to lowered expectations.

The problem, though, is that markets usually don’t like the news of gloomy guidance when it’s originally offered and it then becomes a whole quarter until you can try to capitalize on those lowered expectations.

So far, this quarter, even as the results are just really beginning to come through, the theme is intact.

However, what today’s trading showed and what today’s aftermarket trading showed, is that traders really don’t want another quarter with disappointing guidance.

The stocks that have done just that have fallen mightily and tomorrow could be interesting if the sell off in individual earnings related names continues.

As the market continued to move higher, even by small bits and pieces over the past few days, we had come within about 1.5% of an all time closing high on the S&P 500. That got pushed by a little today.

That’s still not too shabby, especially when you consider that there really hasn’t been an iota of good news.

The economy isn’t strong enough to warrant an increase in interest rates and oil is getting more expensive.

Oil, is actually no about 75% higher than its low from earlier in the year, yet somehow markets have taken that as being good news, even as there’s no evidence that the increase in oil price is due to increasing demand.

This morning may be ready to follow that trend, although as the futures are getting ready to give way to the market’s open, they are as flat as can be.

With a new purchase this week and a couple of positions set to expire, I would still be open to opening a new position, but that’s probably not going to be too likely.

Like last week, I wouldn’t mind being able to roll over even positions that may be in line to be assigned, if the rollover premium is 1% or more.

Last week I didn’t get to do that, instead taking the assignment, but I’m still at the stage where I’d prefer to make money from existing positions rather than from laying out or recycling cash.

We’ll see what tomorrow will now hold as the evening has been one earnings and guidance disappointment after another

Daily Market Update – April 21, 2016 (9:00 AM)

Markets didn’t exactly march higher yesterday, but when you put the last week together, even those relatively small gains add to an impressive move higher.

Even as earnings haven’t exactly been robust, no one is really doing too much complaining as the results are in line and perhaps even better than anyone’s expectations had been.

There is a real strategy to the idea of under-promising and then living up to lowered expectations.

The problem, though, is that markets usually don’t like the news of gloomy guidance when it’s originally offered and it then becomes a whole quarter until you can try to capitalize on those lowered expectations.

So far, this quarter, even as the results are just really beginning to come through, the theme is intact.

As the market continues to move higher, even by small bits and pieces over the past few days, we are now within about 1.5% of an all time closing high on the S&P 500.

That’s not too shabby, especially when you consider that there really hasn’t been an iota of good news.

The economy isn’t strong enough to warrant an increase in interest rates and oil is getting more expensive.

Oil, is actually no about 75% higher than its low from earlier in the year, yet somehow markets have taken that as being good news, even as there’s no evidence that the increase in oil price is due to increasing demand.

This morning may be ready to follow that trend, although as the futures are getting ready to give way to the market’s open, they are as flat as can be.

With a new purchase this week and a couple of positions set to expire, I would still be open to opening a new position, but that’s probably not going to be too likely.

Like last week, I wouldn’t mind being able to roll over even positions that may be in line to be assigned, if the rollover premium is 1% or more.

Last week I didn’t get to do that, instead taking the assignment, but I’m still at the stage where I’d prefer to make money from existing positions rather than from laying out or recycling cash.

We’ll see what today and tomorrow will hold.

Daily Market Update – April 20, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday stocks were able to come back after giving up their triple point gain. The numbers were probably better than they appeared, with both the DJIA and S&P 500 being dragged down by a few really big declines after the report of earnings.

With earnings season still fresh, the theme is already beginning to shape up.

What we’re seeing so far is that the guidance from the previous quarter had really lowered expectations and as long as this quarter’s earnings reports are in the neighborhood, then investors wouldn’t run for the hills.

Maybe that’s why guidance for the following quarter continues to be less than optimistic.

So companies are generally presenting numbers better than expected, but still giving reduced guidance for the next quarter.

What economic expansion?

As oil is slowly heading higher on a net basis, with a series of large moves higher and large moves lower, at some point that new more expensive commodity has to weigh in on things.

You would think that to be the case, even as it never really seems to have weighed in while oil was heading lower and stayed there for the longest of times.

Even now, those prices seem to be a relative bargain, but no one is rejoicing in a tangible way by spending their money.

This morning markets recovered from their early morning losses in the futures and may find some reason to go higher, even as oil is again markedly weaker this morning.

But by now, those 2% moves seem small and inconsequential as they go back and forth with a net result of having been steadily moving higher since the low of about $26/barrel just a couple of months ago.

The new line in the sand is $40 and oil seems to be building a base in defense of that level.

In the meantime, the S&P 500 is barely 1.5% off from its all time highs, so it’s hard to really get an understanding of what anything means.

With earnings being mediocre and oil climbing higher, along with precious metals, maybe its the falling interest rate environment that’s feeding stocks.

But we all know that’s supposed to end. It’s just that the FOMC’s crystal ball has been really, really cloudy.

Mine hasn’t been better, but for now, I don’t mind going along for the ride, even if not trading too much.

That, too, will change.

Daily Market Update – April 19, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday stocks showed that they could go their own way apart from oil, oil oil’s rebound later in the day didn’t hurt things.

This morning’s futures had stocks and oil once again moving hand in hand, as what should have been the expected disappointment coming from Doha is going to be forgotten quickly.

Back in the days, OPEC was a real cartel and the countries comprising it were relatively united in their aim to squeeze the most out of the world.

That changed when Saudi Arabia decided it might be a bad idea to seriously injure the economies of the nations that actually buy your product. It also changed when Saudi Arabia saw other nations with increasing production, who found it necessary to keep production going to keep themselves in power.

It’s hard to have a cartel with any real influence when there is no real agenda anymore,

It’s also hard to artificially try to influence price when there are producers around the world who aren’t part of the club or won’t follow the edicts.

But this morning oil was again higher and WTI was again above $40 and likely to move higher, although with continued volatility.

It did move higher today, but stocks were ambivalent about following and gave up much of their earlier gain on the day.

Ultimately, it’s just a question of when stocks will come to the realization that more expensive oil shouldn’t really be a catalyst for higher stock prices, unless the oil price increase reflects real growth in demand.

But, that’s a question for another day.

For now, earnings are coming in and the market seems to be reasonably happy if lowered expectations are met and seems not to care about the less than optimistic guidance that is being delivered to date.

Today’s market wasn’t helped too much by IBM, but the broader S&P 500, which shouldn’t have been impacted as much as the DJIA by IBM’s weakness, had other issues to contend with, such as Google and Netflix.

I made one purchase yesterday and was ready to make an additional one yesterday and again today, but that one, too, was in the retail sector.

That gave me some reason for pause, because a few years ago I was overweight in retail and it took some time to dig out, so I’m not necessarily eager to be in the same position, as I’m now still overweight in oil and commodities and have been waiting the longest time to see some sunlight.

With a couple of positions set to expire this week and one ex-dividend position, I’d still like to generate some more income on the week, so I won’t yet put the wallet away.

On the other hand, I don’t mind the passivity, as long as it sees the market moving higher and pulling me along with it.

I’d be especially happy if some of the market’s move higher continues to be disproportionately based in oil and commodities, as that’s made 2016 a good year to date, just as it had made 2015 not such a good year. Today it was definitely weighted on that side of the equation, as oil and commodities continued their climb.

With volatility falling, there’s less reason to look at longer term option contracts at the moment, although I’d still love the opportunity to get some call sales on uncovered positions and may prefer to get something rather than just let those positions sit there and do nothing.

Daily Market Update – April 19, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday stocks showed that they could go their own way apart from oil, oil oil’s rebound later in the day didn’t hurt things.

This morning’s futures have stocks and oil once again moving hand in hand, as what should have been the expected disappointment coming from Doha is going to be forgotten quickly.

back in the days, OPEC was a real cartel and the countries comprising it were relatively united in their aim to squeeze the most out of the world.

That changed when Saudi Arabia decided it might be a bad idea to seriously injure the economies of the nations that actually buy your product. It also changed when Saudi Arabia saw other nations with increasing production, who found it necessary to keep production going to keep themselves in power.

It’s hard to have a cartel with any real influence when there is no real agenda anymore,

It’s also hard to artificially try to influence price when there are producers around the world who aren’t part of the club or won’t follow the edicts.

But this morning oil is again higher and WTI is again above $40 and likely to move higher, although with continued volatility.

It’s just a question of when stocks will come to the realization that more expensive oil shouldn’t really be a catalyst for higher stock prices, unless the oil price increase reflects real growth in demand.

That’s a question for another day.

For now, earnings are coming in and the market seems to be reasonably happy if lowered expectations are met and seems not to care about the less than optimistic guidance that is being delivered to date.

I made one purchase yesterday and was ready to make an additional one, but that one, too, was in the retail sector.

That gave me some reason for pause, because a few years ago I was overweight in retail and it took some time to dig out, so I’m not necessarily eager to be in the same position, as I’m now still overweight in oil and commodities and have been waiting the longest time to see some sunlight.

With a couple of positions set to expire this week and one ex-dividend position, I’d still like to generate some more income on the week, so I won’t yet put the wallet away.

On the other hand, I don’t mind the passivity, as long as it sees the market moving higher and pulling me along with it.

I’d be especially happy if some of the market’s move higher continues to be disproportionately based in oil and commodities, as that’s made 2016 a good year to date, just as it had made 2015 not such a good year.

With volatility falling, there’s less reason to look at longer term option contracts at the moment, although I’d still love the opportunity to get some call sales on uncovered positions and may prefer to get something rather than just let those positions sit there and do nothing.

Daily Market Update – April 18, 2016 (Close

The markets were buoyed last week by rumors that the world’s major oil producers, of course, not including the United States, were going to come to an agreement on reducing production.

That would have the intended result of increasing the price of oil, particularly as the issue seems to be supply related, rather than weak demand.

All of those oil ministers met on Sunday and just as was the case 2 months earlier, when markets exalted in news of a production cut, this one fell through, too.

On the ominous side, reportedly the new Saudi Arabian oil minister is a young and combative guy, who is willing to take great pain in order to inflict great pain.

The great pain he wants to inflict is upon Iran, who is responsible for each of the last two attempts to drop production having fallen through.

Unlike the last time, when the markets really expressed their unwarranted shock, this morning it seemed to be taking it all in stride.

It’s really hard to imagine that anyone really would have believed that Iran, after so many years of being limited in its sale of crude oil, would be now willing to take a cut, just as it is getting use to the flow of cash once again.

Hopefully, if oil continues lower, stocks won’t follow.

With crude oil down about 3% in the early trading, the muted response by stocks is a positive one, as the S&P 500 is, in a stealth sort of way, only about 3% away from its all time high.

Crude eventually recovered and stocks were reasonably healthy all throughout the session. It only took 20 minutes of trading at a loss before stocks turned positive and never looked back.

With a couple of assignments last week, I do have some additional cash to spend. With only one position as a potential rollover for the week and only one ex-dividend position, I wouldn’t have mind supplementing some of that income and was happy to actually make a trade.

With earnings getting underway with greater intensity this week and maybe with oil on the back burner, more emphasis could get placed on fundamentals.

Whether that’s good or bad is up for debate, but for now, the market seems to be accepting of earnings results that are mediocre, but still better than expected.

That’s usually what you do in life when your resolved to failure, but whatever works is fine by me.

Daily Market Update – April 18, 2016 (8:45 AM)

The markets were buoyed last week by rumpors that the world’s major oil producers, of course, not including the United States, were going to come to an agreement on reducing production.

That would have the intended result of increasing the price of oil, particularly as the issue seems to be supply related, rather than weak demand.

All of those oil ministers met on Sunday and just as was the case 2 months earlier, when markets exalted in news of a production cut, this one fell through, too.

On the oienous side, reportedly the new Saudi Arabian oil minister is a young and combative guy, who is willing to take great pain in order to inflict great pain.

The great pain he wants to inflict is upon Iran, who is responsible for each of the last two attempts to drop production having fallen through.

Unlike the last time, when the markets really expressed their unwarranted shock, this morning seems to be taking it in stride.

It’s really hard to imagine that anyone really would have believed that Iran, after so many years of being limited in its sale of crude oil, would be now willing to take a cut, just as it is getting use to the flow of cash once again.

Hopefully, if oil continues lower, stocks won’t follow.

With crude oil down about 3% in the early trading, the muted response by stocks is a positive one, as the S&P 500 is, in a stealth sort of way, only about 3% away from its all time high.

With a couple of assignments last week, I do have some addittional cash to spend. With only one position as a potential rollover for the week and only one ex-dividend position, I wouldn’t mind supplementing some of that income.

With earnings getting underway with greater intensity this week and maybe with oil on the back burner, more emphasis could get placed on fundamentals.

Whether that’s good or bad is up for debate, but for now, the market seems to be accepting of earnings results that are mediocre, but still better than expected.

That’s usually what you do in life when your resolved to failure, but whatever works is fine by me.

Daily Market Update – April 15, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  MRO*

Rollovers: STX puts

Expirations: none

* In the event that I can achieve a NC of $0.11 or more on a rollover of MRO, I would prefer to do that, rather than have the position assigned.

The following were ex-dividend this week:  none

The following are ex-dividend next week;  FAST (4/22 $0.30)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.

Daily Market Update – April 14, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The gains from yesterday added to the previous day were already pretty nice to look at.

They would have been even nicer if Monday hadn’t given back all of the same magnitude of gains and actually lost a little.

This week, much of the strength in stocks has come without the push from oil, although there was a boost when some rumors started regarding Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s changing position on production cuts.

That rumor could become reality as we get ready to start next week, or they could fall by the wayside as they did in February.

For now, though, focus is on earnings.

Even as JP Morgan Chase may have lifted markets yesterday, the news wasn’t really that good.

It was just a case of announcing top and bottom lines that were better than expected, but no one expected much.

Although the numbers were better than expected, guidance wasn’t very positive.

So at least that means that JP Morgan could be setting itself up for another strong showing 3 months from now. That could really be the case if interest rates start to show some life and bad loan provisions in the oil sector don’t face continuing pressure from falling oil prices.

While we may await the news on an agreement to cut back oil production, there are lots and lots of earnings reports ahead for the next few weeks.

Although it won’t be for a while, the real key may be when retail begins to report in a few weeks.

Given yesterday’s disappointing economic news that may be more in line with the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s lowering of its GDP forecast last week, there may be reason to think that the FOMC may not be raising rates anytime soon and that the market will react in kind.

With yesterday’s gain, 2016 is no longer in the red.

The question may be whether there is another 10% move in store in one direction or another.

The past few days have been gap moves higher. Depending on how you look at things, that’s either the start of a sustained move higher or the basis for a swift drop.

You can find evidence to support both camps, but I’m hoping that some reasonable earnings news will be an impetus to move higher and maybe sustain the move, especially if retail reflects some consumer participation.

With some new calls sold yesterday, I’d love to do the same today.

Faced with a rare assignment tomorrow, I still may be interested in rolling that position over, because the premium may end up being as good as any alternative, but with far more downside protection, so be prepared for a potentially unusual trade.

Those kinds of trades were very common when volatility was high across the market.

When volatility is high for an individual stock, the same concept can apply, so why not?

Daily Market Update – April 13, 2016 (Close)

This morning’s early futures trading, before JP Morgan Chase released its earnings report to really get the season underway was still nicely higher.

The DJIA futures were flirting with another triple digit gain following yesterday’s 170+ point move.

This morning, the futures were higher even as oil futures were a little bit lower.

Yesterday stocks followed oil higher on the report that both Saudi Arabia and Russia were going to agree to oil production cutbacks at the end of the week.

That rumor first started more than a month ago and was more than rumor.

It was true, until Iran messed up everyone’s strategy by not agreeing to go along with the shared burden of reducing production in an attempt to drive prices higher.

That shouldn’t have come as too much of a surprise to anyone, but it was.

Instead, when rational thought finally set in, the strong gains gave way to strong losses.

We’ll see how the intent this time around will work out, but so far this morning and then throughout the entire day, the market was accepting it on face value and adding on to gains,  The gains for the week could end up being considerable if oil continues its climb higher in anticipation of a real agreement.

Today, the market certainly added to the gains, even as oil wasn’t a participant.

Yesterday’s gain came after the market gave up the entirety of a similar sized gain, and this morning’s early trading gave some sign that maybe it was representing some real pent up buying fever.

With low expectations JP Morgan Chase reported earnings this morning and set the tone for the rest of the day. The market gapped higher and never threatened to erase the early gain.

Despite JP Morgan giving less than a rosy outlook for what awaits, it still beat lowered expectations and for today, that was all that mattered.

Generally, if the financial sector does poorly, so too does the rest of the market.

If the financials do well, the market doesn’t necessarily follow along, but at this still early stage of economic expansion, good news for big banks should be good news for most everyone.

I don’t know which direction the market may take, but I hope that it does continue higher, just not in these kind of leaps and bounds.

At a time when we may be returning to an era when 10% moves are not uncommon, these large daily moves make it easier to see those large cumulative moves.

We’ve already had 3 of those in the past 6 months and more could be in store.

I’m still open to the idea of adding positions, but now would likely be looking at the following week for expiration.

Otherwise, it would just be nice to make a trade or two. Fortunately, one did get made today, providing a little bit of coverage to an existing positions.

We need more of those and maybe then some more places to put cash reserves, but i may want to wait until we see what Saudi Arabia and Russia really decide to do.

Daily Market Update – April 13, 2016 (7:30 AM)

This morning’s early futures trading, before JP Morgan Chase releases its earnings report to really get the season underway is still nicely higher.

The DJIA futures were flirting with another triple digit gain following yesterday’s 170+ point move.

This morning, the futures are higher even as oil futures are a little bit lower.

Yesterday stocks followed oil higher on the report that both Saudi Arabia and Russia were going to agree to oil production cutbacks at the end of the week.

That rumor first started more than a month ago and was more than rumor.

It was true, until Iran messed up everyone’s strategy by not agreeing to go along with the shared burden of reducing production in an attempt to drive prices higher.

That shouldn’t have come as too much of a surprise to anyone, but it was.

Instead, when rational thought finally set in, the strong gains gave way to strong losses.

We’ll see how the intent this time around will work out, but so far this morning, the market is accepting it on face value and adding on to gains,  The gains for the week could end up being considerable if oil continues its climb higher in anticipation of a real agreement.

Yesterday’s gain came after the market gave up the entirety of a similar sized gain and this morning’s early trading could be representing some real pent up buying fever.

With low expectation, JP Morgan Chase reports earnings and could set the tone.

Generally, if the financial sector does poorly, so too does the rest of the market.

If the financials do well, the market doesn’t necessarily follow along, but at this still early stage of economic expansion, good news for big banks should be good news for most everyone.

I don’t know which direction the market may take, but I hope that it does continue higher, just not in these kind of leaps and bounds.

At a time when we may be returning to an era when 10% moves are not uncommon, these large daily moves make it easier to see those large cumulative moves.

We’ve already had 3 of those in the past 6 months and more could be in store.

I’m still open to the idea of adding positions, but now would likely be looking at the following week for expiration.

Otherwise, it would just be nice to make a trade or two

Daily Market Update – April 12, 2016 (Close)

You probably shouldn’t even try to explain yesterday and even though there was an explanation for today, I’ll believe it when I see it.

As far as yesterday goes, there’s usually a reason for a gap move higher or lower, but yesterday’s higher open didn’t really have too much behind it.

So it may have been a little understandable why the move higher couldn’t be sustained.

But then came the rebound that restored much of what was lost.

That may have been hard to explain, as well.

That rebound didn’t get quite as high as the original gap move, so maybe some technicians may have soured at that point.

Maybe that explains the final leg lower to end the day seeing the market take a small loss.

Who knows.

This morning the futures were headed mildly higher as we awaited tomorrow’s big first earnings test.

That test is the beginning of financial season. Alcoa doesn’t really count anymore. Now it’s JP Morgan Chase that sets the season off to the races and expectations are really low.

I didn’t expect too much action yesterday, but it was an active day, just not for me.

It was safer just sitting and watching, while looking for any opportunity to manage existing positions.

I thought today would be more of the same.

What happened, was what has  been just about the only reliable catalyst for all of 2016 kicking in.

It was another large move higher by oil and the market followed, never really considering giving the gain a second thought.

What made me give it a second thought, while I did enjoyed seeing my shares move higher, was the news that the oil move was based upon.

It was the same news from about a month ago when there was a report that there would be a cut in oil production agreed to by OPEC and non-OPEC members.

Oil and stocks soared on that news, until someone realized that Iran wasn’t in agreement, just as they were ramping up to really start bringing product to market.

When the realization hit, oil and stocks reversed course.

Today, the rumor was that Saudi Arabia and Russia will agree to large cutbacks this coming Sunday.

As I said, I’ll believe it when I see it and I would expect Iran to announce it’s rushing in to fill any void left by those 2 big players, as if everyone else won’t be cheating, as well.

So today’s gain was really nice, but nothing would be better than some better than expected earnings reports starting tomorrow morning.

Daily Market Update – April 12, 2016 (7:30 AM)

You probably shouldn’t even try to explain yesterday.

There’s usually a reason for a gap move higher or lower, but yesterday’s higher open didn’t really have too much behind it.

So it may have been a little understandable why the move higher couldn’t be sustained.

But then came the rebound that restored much of what was lost.

That may have been hard to explain, as well.

That rebound didn’t get quite as high as the original gap move, so maybe some technicians may have soured at that point.

Maybe that explains the final leg lower to end the day seeing the market take a small loss.

Who knows

This morning the futures are headed mildly higher as we await tomorrow’s big test.

That test is the beginning of financial season. Alcoa doesn’t really count anymore. Now it’s JP Morgan Chase that sets the season off to the races and expectations are really low.

I didn’t expect too much action yesterday, but it was an active day, just not for me.

It was safer just sitting and watching, while looking for any opportunity to manage existing positions.

I think today will be the same.

Daily Market Update – April 11, 2016 (Close)

Last week was a confusing one, with maybe the only real impetus for optimism coming from some of the comforting words from Janet Yellen, even as she seemed to sometimes speak from both sides of the podium.

Earlier in the week and consistent with the previous week, she was dovish. The sense was that interest rates wouldn’t be coming anytime too soon.

That made investors, who seem not to actually care about the health of the economy happy.

But on Thursday evening, when in the company of Volcker, Greenspan and Bernanke, she seemed to be indicating that those rate increases were a sure thing.

Most everyone knows that, but it’s a question of when.

I guess despite her Thursday evening position, it didn’t seem really right around the corner.

This week starts the beginning of another earnings season and no one is expecting much, unless they were expecting to become even more confused.

Today was a great day to add to that confusion. All you had to do was to look at the morning’s gap higher, then the give back of those gains, then the recovery and then the final giveback.

All of this happened on a day that oil ended the day nearly 2% higher.

So that was fun, I guess.

The real fun starts Wednesday morning as JP Morgan Chase reports and much of the financial sector reports in the following days.

The previous quarter’s guidance by banks was weak, so maybe no one is expecting to be disappointed, but any further disappointment or any further downbeat guidance isn’t going to weigh well on the rest of the stock market.

I don’t mind spending money this week after not having opened any new positions over the past two weeks, but I’m looking more at retail.

Retail doesn’t report for a month or so, with some exceptions.

Much of that sector got hit to end the week and has been week for a bit longer than that, perhaps offering an entry.

With the April 2016 option cycle coming to an end this month, I only have a single position to roll over and no ex-dividend positions this week, so I am on the lookout for some income opportunities.

But as with the last couple of weeks, I think I may continue to be cautious. Today was aq good day to be cautious and not to get caught up in that early strength, nor to get re-assured by the bounce back.

This morning had the futures pointing higher, but maybe desperately in need of a reason.

I may need more appearances than that to loosen up some purse strings.

A reason would be nice.

Daily Market Update – April 11, 2016 (Close)

Last week was a confusing one, with maybe the only real impetus for optimism coming from some of the comforting words from Janet Yellen, even as she seemed to sometimes speak from both sides of the podium.

Earlier in the week and consistent with the previous week, she was dovish. The sense was that interest rates wouldn’t be coming anytime too soon.

That made investors, who seem not to actually care about the health of the economy happy.

But on Thursday evening, when in the company of Volcker, Greenspan and Bernanke, she seemed to be indicating that those rate increases were a sure thing.

Most everyone knows that, but it’s a question of when.

I guess despite her Thursday evening position, it didn’t seem really right around the corner.

This week starts the beginning of another earnings season and no one is expecting much, unless they were expecting to become even more confused.

Today was a great day to add to that confusion. All you had to do was to look at the morning’s gap higher, then the give back of those gains, then the recovery and then the final giveback.

All of this happened on a day that oil ended the day nearly 2% higher.

So that was fun, I guess.

The real fun starts Wednesday morning as JP Morgan Chase reports and much of the financial sector reports in the following days.

The previous quarter’s guidance by banks was weak, so maybe no one is expecting to be disappointed, but any further disappointment or any further downbeat guidance isn’t going to weigh well on the rest of the stock market.

I don’t mind spending money this week after not having opened any new positions over the past two weeks, but I’m looking more at retail.

Retail doesn’t report for a month or so, with some exceptions.

Much of that sector got hit to end the week and has been week for a bit longer than that, perhaps offering an entry.

With the April 2016 option cycle coming to an end this month, I only have a single position to roll over and no ex-dividend positions this week, so I am on the lookout for some income opportunities.

But as with the last couple of weeks, I think I may continue to be cautious. Today was aq good day to be cautious and not to get caught up in that early strength, nor to get re-assured by the bounce back.

This morning had the futures pointing higher, but maybe desperately in need of a reason.

I may need more appearances than that to loosen up some purse strings.

A reason would be nice.