Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – November 3,  2015  (Close)

Yesterday was a really unexpected move higher to start the week.

When you think about how the market reacted to the last release of the Employment Situation Report, there was a quick shift in sentiment as the October numbers were disappointingly low.

Right up to that report the market had finally started looking at economic news in a rational way and its initial response to the bad news was exactly what a rational person would have predicted and the market added to its already 10% loss having started in the latter half of August.

It got down to about a 12% loss and then just turned around on a dime early in the morning of that release, getting to where it ended up yesterday, now less than 2% below its all time highs as the day was set to begin.

By the time today’s final bell tolled, the market was closing in on just about a 1% loss from those highs.

So yesterday’s and today’s moves higher in advance of this Friday’s release of the next round of employment numbers means only one of two things now that the FOMC seems to be saying that the number that we thought was so disappointing last month, is actually just fine and dandy in justifying an interest rate increase.

So, either the market went higher these past 2 days in expectation of continued bad news, meaning bad news is good news, or it went higher in expectation that Friday will bring good news.

It’s hard to believe that the former is the case and maybe the market is setting itself up to respond in a rational way, although you would have expected some negative response, given how so much of the rise from the 12% drop seemed to be fueled by the “bad news is good news” kind of mentality.

But that’s the problem with applying rational thought processes to what is really an irrational entity, despite all of its metrics, charting and analyses.

This morning’s pre-opening futures weren’t indicating that it would add to yesterday’s gains, but you certainly wouldn’t have predicted yesterday’s gain from yesterday’s p[re-opening futures.

You would have been a fool to predict today, even though it didn’t finish at its highs. It was still higher enough.

With the fairly rapid and sustained climb yesterday there wasn’t very much opportunity to jump in and buy anything. Most of what I had my eye on this week were dividend related and today was the last day to make those purchases, but today came and went without those buying opportunities, so it may end up being a very quiet week, despite a single new position being added in the afternoon.

With a few positions set to expire this week there are still some opportunities to either rollover those positions or potentially see assignments, but as the week progresses and as those dividend related opportunities have disappeared, the likelihood is that any more new trades will now look at an expiration the following week.

After having rolled over next week’s sole expiring position yesterday, I wouldn’t mind being able to populate next week’s list of expiring positions, particularly if there may be a chance of getting some assignments this week.

Otherwise, it will be another morning of watching and waiting to see how sentiment unfolds. I wouldn’t mind a little weakness, although it never did come in time for those ex-dividend positions.

Daily Market Update – November 3,  2015  (7:00 AM)

Yesterday was a really unexpected move higher to start the week.

When you think about how the market reacted to the last release of the Employment Situation Report, there was a quick shift in sentiment as the October numbers were disappointingly low.

Right up to that report the market had finally started looking at economic news in a rational way and its initial response to the bad news was exactly what a rational person would have predicted and the market added to its already 10% loss having started in the latter half of August.

It got down to about a 12% loss and then just turned around on a dime early in the morning of that release, getting to where it ended up yesterday, now less than 2% below its all time highs.

So yesterday’s move higher in advance of this Friday’s release of the next round of employment numbers means only one of two things now that the FOMC seems to be saying that the number that we thought was so disappointing last month, is actually just fine and dandy in justifying an interest rate increase.

So, either the market went higher yesterday in expectation of continued bad news, meaning bad news is good news, or it went higher in expectation that Friday will bring good news.

It’s hard to believe that the former is the case and maybe the market is setting itself up to respond in a rational way, although you would have expected some negative response, given how so much of the rise from the 12% drop seemed to be fueled by the “bad news is good news” kind of mentality.

But that’s the problem with applying rational thought processes to what is really an irrational entity, despite all of its metrics, charting and analyses.

This morning’s pre-opening futures aren’t yet indicating that it would add to yesterday’s gains, but you certainly wouldn’t have predicted yesterday’s gain from yesterday’s p[re-opening futures.

With the fairly rapid and sustained climb yesterday there wasn’t very much opportunity to jump in and buy anything. Most of what I have my eye on this week are dividend related and today would be the last day to make those purchases. If today comes and goes without those buying opportunities, it may end up being a very quiet week.

With a few positions set to expire this week there are still some opportunities to either rollover those positions or potentially see assignments, but as the week progresses, if those dividend related opportunities disappear, the likelihood is that any new trades will then look at an expiration the following week.

After having rolled over next week’s sole expiring position yesterday, I wouldn’t mind being able to populate next week’s list of expiring positions, particularly if there may be a chance of getting some assignments this week.

Otherwise, it will be another morning of watching and waiting to see how sentiment unfolds. I wouldn’t mind a little weakness, especially in those ex-dividend positions in an effort to set up some trades for the week.

Daily Market Update – November 2,  2015  (Close)

While it’s still a busy week for earnings ahead, the real action starts at the end of the week and then next week.

At the end of this week is yet another Employment Situation Report and next week begins a slew of earnings from big box retailers.

It was just a month ago that following an initial negative reaction to a worse than expected Employment Situation Report that the market turned things around and has, in the course of those 4 weeks, almost entirely erased a 12% decline.

That turned out to help make October a really great market month, as long as you started your investing career in the market after 10 AM on that Friday morning.

Undoubtedly, in a few years there will be someone on some financial news network show whose returns will be based on having started tracking performance from that mid-morning.

What makes those two events so important is that good numbers from both could easily give the FOMC the push that it wants from the data.

Particularly since the FOMC has seemed to suggest that 150,000 new jobs would be sufficient to give them reason to do what now seems very clear that they are aching to get done.

While the FOMC has repeatedly said that they will be data driven, they have never said what thresholds they would use in making their decisions, so the suggestion that 150,000 may be enough, particularly as the last report, which was a rare one coming in at below 200,000, would no longer be considered “disappointing.”

Beyond that, next week’s retail reports will probably give an earlier indication of what the consumer is doing, as opposed to the official GDP reports.

While the earnings are backward looking, if retailers start painting some optimistic pictures with regard to forward guidance, you can feel pretty assured, that barring some unforeseen calamity, things are going to get better and better.

That would really be what the FOMC would be looking for as a signal to finally raise interest rates.

While we are all expecting that such a decision won’t come before the December meeting and many believe that it won’t come until 2016, back in October when the word didn’t come, it was made clear that the FOMC didn’t have to wait until its next meeting to make and announce a decision.

So everyone should still be on their toes between now and Thanksgiving.

The market was set to start the week off with a mild gain, but like last week, there wasn’t too much reason to expect any big moves.

So of course, what did we get? A big move to start the week, only it went higher, instead of where I was hoping it might go.

Last week also didn’t need an excuse to start running higher in advance of the FOMC Statement release and then had sufficient reason to make big moves afterward.

But that was mid-week. This time around I thought we might have to wait until the end of the week to get a fire lit, but you never do know.

With some assignments and cash to spend, I’m willing to do so, especially if there’s a dividend to be captured. With a few positions already set to expire this week and some ex-dividend positions already in the mix, while willing to spend, I may be waiting for some relative weakness and would likely think about weekly contracts, if parting with some money.

For now, I’ll probably let the early trades work themselves out tomorrow, because they sure didn’t cooperate today and see what kind of tone develops by mid-morning before making any decisions on new positions.

Daily Market Update – November 2,  2015  (7:30 AM)

While it’s still a busy week for earnings ahead, the real action starts at the end of the week and then next week.

At the end of this week is yet another Employment Situation Report and next week begins a slew of earnings from big box retailers.

It was just a month ago that following an initial negative reaction to a worse than expected Employment Situation Report that the market turned things around and has, in the course of those 4 weeks, almost entirely erased a 12% decline.

That turned out to help make October a really great market month, as long as you started your investing career in the market after 10 AM on that Friday morning.

Undoubtedly, in a few years there will be someone on some financial news network show whose returns will be based on having started tracking perfromance from that mid-morning.

What makes those two events so important is that good numbers from both could easily give the FOMC the push that it wants from the data.

Particularly since the FOMC has seemed to suggest that 150,000 new jobs would be sufficient to give them reason to do what now seems very clear that they are aching to get done.

While the FOMC has repeatedly said that they will be data driven, they have never said what thresholds they would use in making their decisions, so the suggestion that 150,000 may be enough, particularly as the last report, which was a rare one coming in at below 200,000, would no longer be considered “disappointing.”

Beyond that, next week’s retail reports will probably give an earlier indication of what the consumer is doing, as opposed to the official GDP reports.

While the earnings are backward looking, if retailers start painting some optimistic pictures with regard to forward guidance, you can feel pretty assured, that barring some unforeseen calamity, things are going to get better and better.

That would really be what the FOMC would be looking for as a signal to finally raise interest rates.

While we are all expecting that such a decision won’t come before the December meeting and many believe that it won’t come until 2016, back in October when the word didn’t come, it was made clear that the FOMC didn’t have to wait until its next meeting to make and announce a decision.

So everyone should still be on their toes between now and Thanksgiving.

The market is set to start the week off with a mild gain, but like last week, there’s not too much reason to expect any big moves.

Of course, last week didn’t need an excuse to start running higher in advance of the FOMC STatement release and then had sufficient reason to make big moves afterward.

That was mid-week. This time around we may have to wait until the end of the week to get a fire lit, but you never do know.

With some assignments and cash to spend, I’m willing to do so, especially if there’s a dividend to be captured. With a few positions already set to expire this week and some ex-dividend positions already in the mix, while willing to spend, I may be waiting for some relative weakness and would likely think about weekly contracts, if parting with some money.

For now, I’ll probably let the early trades work themselves out and see what kind of tone develops by mid-morning before making any decisions on new positions.

Daily Market Update – October 30,  2015  (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  MS, STX (puts)

Rollovers:  F

Expirations:  none

The following were ex-dividend this week:  MS (10/28 $0.15), F (10/28 $0.15), WY (10/28 $0.31), KMI (10/29 $0.51)

The following are ex-dividend next week:  INTC (11/4 $0.24)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.

Daily Market Update – October 29,  2015  (Close)

Yesterday’s stock market movements were pretty surprising.

The strength ahead of the 2 PM FOMC Statement release itself was surprising, as the pattern for nearly a year had been strength on the days leading up to the release date, particularly the day before.

This week it seemed as if all of the buying had happened in the last two days of the previous week and tentativeness had taken hold on Monday and Tuesday.

But for some reason the optimism came back and the turned on a dime at 2 PM.

At that point the market fell over 100 points as the FOMC came out with a more hawkish tone, even though it left interest rates unchanged.

It laid out the kind of thresholds that it would take as justification for a rate hike and each of the bullet points seemed as if they could be easily met by the time of the next FOMC meeting in December.

Maybe it was that relative degree of certainty and removing any reference to the uncertainty in international markets,such as China, which then gave investors some confidence.

Because just as quickly a the market turned lower at 2 PM it jumped higher about 15 minutes later, as the market made up about double what it had lost.

This morning’s pre-opening trading has some of those gains being given back, but most people would be happy with the idea of taking 3 steps back for 4 steps forward, especially if that kind of back-filling could be dome on a regular basis.

Yesterday’s gain now leaves the S&P 500 at only a 2% or so deficit from its all time high achieved in the summer, having made up about 10% of that deficit in less than a month.

That kind of rapid climb higher really does need some kind of back-filling to leave it in a reasonably stable condition and any givebacks over the next few weeks might not be the worst thing in the world.

With the FOMC now out of the way, today’s GDP may give some insight into what retail earnings are going to look like, but I would put more faith in the latter, despite the ease with which the bottom lines are manipulated.

The key to look for as the national big box retailers are getting ready to report their earnings is to look at their top line revenue numbers. Any increase in those  numbers is going to be a reflection of increased consumer spending, which itself represents about 70% of the GDP.

It’s that kind of consumer activity that would probably be the best indicator of a growing economy and the best reason for the FOMC to consider lightly tapping on the brakes.

For today my focus was restricted to this week’s expiring positions and trying to be in a position to be able to spend some money next week to open some other new positions.

It won’t be any different tomorrow.

With only a single expiring position next week, it would certainly be nice to have an opportunity to either open new positions or at least get to rollover this week’s expiring positions, in order to create the week’s income stream.

Daily Market Update – October 29,  2015  (7:30 AM)

Yesterday’s stock market movements were pretty surprising.

The strength ahead of the 2 PM FOMC Statement release itself was surprising, as the pattern for nearly a year had been strength on the days leading up to the release date, particularly the day before.

This week it seemed as if all of the buying had happened in the last two days of the previous week and tentativeness had taken hold on Monday and Tuesday.

But for some reason the optimism came back and the turned on a dime at 2 PM.

At that point the market fell over 100 points as the FOMC came out with a more hawkish tone, even though it left interest rates unchanged.

It laid out the kind of thresholds that it would take as justification for a rate hike and each of the bullet points seemed as if they could be easily met by the time of the next FOMC meeting in December.

Maybe it was that relative degree of certainty and removing any reference to the uncertainty in international markets,such as China, which then gave investors some confidence.

Because just as quickly a the market turned lower at 2 PM it jumped higher about 15 minutes later, as the market made up about double what it had lost.

This morning’s pre-opening trading has some of those gains being given back, but most people would be happy with the idea of taking 3 steps back for 4 steps forward, especially if that kind of back-filling could be dome on a regular basis.

Yesterday’s gain now leaves the S&P 500 at only a 2% or so deficit from its all time high achieved in the summer, having made up about 10% of that deficit in less than a month.

That kind of rapid climb higher really does need some kind of back-filling to leave it in a reasonably stable condition and any givebacks over the next few weeks might not be the worst thing in the world.

With the FOMC now out of the way, today’s GDP may give some insight into what retail earnings are going to look like, but I would put more faith in the latter, despite the ease with which the bottom lines are manipulated.

The key to look for as the national big box retailers are getting ready to report their earnings is to look at their top line revenue numbers. Any increase in those  numbers is going to be a reflection of increased consumer spending, which itself represents about 70% of the GDP.

It’s that kind of consumer activity that would probably be the best indicator of a growing economy and the best reason for the FOMC to consider lightly tapping on the brakes.

FOr the rest of the week my focus will most likely be restricted to this week’s expiring positions and trying to be in a position to be able to spend some money next week to open some other new positions.

With only a single expiring position next week, it would certainly be nice to have an opportunity to either open new positions or at least get to rollover this week’s expiring positions, in order to create the week’s income stream.

Daily Market Update – October 28,  2015  (Close)

Following Monday’s pretty unexciting day, yesterday wasn’t very different.

This morning’s pre-opening futures trading in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC Statement release isn’t looking any differently either, as the gains of last week are still being digested and may have given traders a reason to not do their anticipatory and celebratory buying on Monday and Tuesday, ahead of the FOMC.

No one expected the FOMC to announce a rate cute, although just a month ago, prior to the last Employment Situation Report, most of those people were getting prepared for an October rate increase and were beginning to see that increase as being a positive thing.

That all changed a month ago and the rate increase was again being viewed as a negative for markets. Those employment numbers made most traders believe that an imminent rate increase was going to be less likely.

As long as markets are still practicing that kind of mentality, you would be left to believe that at some point they would have to express their disappointment when the FOMC finally decides to act. Ultimately, though, the realization has to again be that the longer the FOMC doesn’t act, the more negative of a picture that has to be painting about the health of the nation’s economy.

That disappointment could also be expressed if the FOMC simply changed some of the nuanced wording that it uses to accompany their brief policy decision statement. Any wording that suggested that the rate increase is really coming soon, or even any expression of disappointment in the slow rate of the recovery having precluded an interest rate increase to date, could have brought out the sellers.

Or at least so I would have thought.

Those sellers have been on a break for the past 4 weeks as buyers have taken center stage and almost completely set aside the correction that had occurred.

Tomorrow will be the GDP release, and regardless of the FOMC’s decision today, especially if it offers nothing new in policy nor in content, could get people back in heightened expectation mode for an increase at the following FOMC meeting.

That game has been going on for the entirety of Janet Yellen’s tenure and it never seems to get old.

As the day developed though, it went from a nice gain heading into the FOMC Statement and then plummeted 143 points in 18 minutes immediately after the statement’s release. only to erase that loss and then add on 210 points to finish the day just slightly less than 200 points higher.

I guess traders didn’t follow my logic and respond negatively to the idea that rates could go up in December.

With a couple of new positions opened this week and a decent number of ex-dividend positions for the week, I didn’t expect to be parting with too much more money, although I did still have some interest in Seagate Technology ahead of their earnings this week and their ex-dividend date next week.

Otherwise it’s going to likely be a situation of awaiting the FOMC’s decision and hoping to get some assignments, or at the very least some rollovers of those scant 2 positions expiring this week and finally couldn’t resist expressing that interest in a tangible way.

Now that today is done, we can set our sights on the upcoming earnings from retailers and perhaps finally get some idea of what may be going on with the real drivers of the economy. A strong showing in retail could demonstrate that consumers are back and finally give some reason to look forward to 2016, not in fear of that rate increase, but rather in anticipation of growing corporate revenues for a change.

Daily Market Update – October 28,  2015  (7:00 AM)

Following Monday’s pretty unexciting day, yesterday wasn’t very different.

This morning’s pre-opening futures trading in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC Statement release isn’t looking any differently either, as the gains of last week are still being digested and may have given traders a reason to not do their anticipatory and celebratory buying on Monday and Tuesday, ahead of the FOMC.

No one expects the FOMC to announce a rate cute, although just a month ago, prior to the last Employment Situation Report, most of those people were getting prepared for an October rate increase and were beginning to see that increase as being a positive thing.

That all changed a month ago and the rate increase was again being viewed as a negative for markets. Those employment numbers made most traders believe that an imminent rate increase was going to be less likely.

As long as markets are still practicing that kind of mentality, you would be left to believe that at some point they would have to express their disappointment when the FOMC finally decides to act. Ultimately, though, the realization has to again be that the longer the FOMC doesn’t act, the more negative of a picture that has o be painting about the health of the nation’s economy.

That disappointment could also be expressed if the FOMC simply changes some of the nuanced wording that it uses to accompany their brief policy decision statement. Any wording that suggests that the rate increase is really coming soon, or even any expression of disappointment in the slow rate of the recovery having precluded an interest rate increase to date, could bring out the sellers.

They’ve been on a break for the past 4 weeks as buyers have taken center stage and almost completely set aside the correction that had occurred.

Tomorrow will be the GDP release, and regardless of the FOMC’s decision today, especially if it offers nothing new in policy nor in content, could get people back in heightened expectation mode for an increase at the following FOMC meeting.

That game has been going on for the entirety of Janet Yellen’s tenure and it never seems to get old.

With a couple of new positions opened this week and a decent number of ex-dividend positions for the week, I don’t expect to be parting with too much more money, although I may still have some interest in Seagate Technology ahead of their earnings this week and their ex-dividend date next week.

Otherwise it’s going to likely be a situation of awaiting the FOMC’s decision and hoping to get some assignments, or at the very least some rollovers of those scant 2 positions expiring this week.

When today is done, we can set our sights on the upcoming earnings from retailers and perhaps finally get some idea of what may be going on with the real drivers of the economy. A strong showing in retail could demonstrate that consumers are back and finally give some reason to look forward to 2016, not in fear of that rate increase, but rather in anticipation of growing corporate revenues for a change.

Daily Market Update – October 27,  2015  (Close)

Yesterday wasn’t very exciting and this morning looked as if it might not be any different.

What is different is that in the past few months the days preceding the FOMC meeting had been really strong market days. That’s in contrast to the situation during the final 1-2 years of the Bernanke tenure as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, when there was lots of uncertainty in advance of the FOMC Statement release and very little stomach for committing to buying stocks until the FOMC Statement would be released and would eliminate that uncertainty.

Back then, the real reactions took place after the 2 PM release, although weakness going into the release was more likely to be seen than has recently been the case.

That changed when traders began to realize that the economy’s bad news would continue to be good news for them. Now, they seem to flip flop on the meaning of anything.

At the moment, the feeling is that no news is good news.

But this week it seems that all of the party euphoria feeling and willingness to spend money all happened last Thursday and Friday when a slew of good news all hit.

Of the good news, 2 of those 3 items spoke to continuing easy money in the EU and China.

While it’s not likely that the FOMC will announce an interest rate increase tomorrow, they could really throw some ice water on last week’s rally, and perhaps the entirety of the recovery seen in October, by simply suggesting that conditions in the economy are bringing us significantly closer to the day of reckoning.

On Thursday the GDP is released and national retailers begin their turn for reporting earnings soon.

The last GDP was stronger than expected and another month’s worth of that kind of data, especially if there are also upward revisions, could upset traders, who really have no reason to be upset.

While I did spend a little bit of money yesterday, I still hade willingness to spend more, but would have really still liked to have seen some additional weakness heading into tomorrow’s FOMC Statement release.

This week will continue to be one heavy with earnings and this morning those earnings are continuing to be mixed.

The really big news on earnings would come after the close of trading today when Apple reported earnings, as it was going to be really anyone’s guess how they would report, as it would be anyone’s guess how the market would react.

What was clear was that Apple has stopped being a market leader or market barometer and this week it’s option premiums were actually not very enticing, given what seems to be more uncertainty than in the recent past.

The real surprise was that after earnings Apple was trading nearly unchanged, although a lot can still happen between this afternoon’s post-close trading and tomorrow’s opening bell.

For today, I envisioned another fairly quiet trading day, although I had an interest in capturing Ford’s dividend, as it reported earnings this morning and was ex-dividend tomorrow. With all of its weakness today, I couldn’t resist the desire to grab that dividend.

Otherwise, the rest of this week may just be a case of sitting back and joining traders and not do any more trading while we all wait for tomorrow’s FOMC.

Daily Market Update – October 27,  2015  (7:30 AM)

Yesterday wasn’t very exciting and this morning looks as if it may be no different.

What is different is that in the past few months the days preceding the FOMC meeting had been really strong market days. That’s in contrast to the situation during the final 1-2 years of the Bernanke tenure as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, when there was lots of uncertainty in advance of the FOMC Statement release and very little stomach for committing to buying stocks.

Back then, the real reactions took place after the 2 PM release, although weakness going into the release was more likely to be seen.

That changed when traders began to realize that the economy’s bad news would continue to be good news for them. Now, they seem to flip flop on the meaning of anything.

At the moment, the feeling is that no news is good news.

But this week it seems that all of the party euphoria feeling and willingness to spend money all happened last Thursday and Friday when a slew of good news all hit.

Of the good news, 2 of those 3 items spoke to continuing easy money in the EU and China.

While it’s not likely that the FOMC will announce an interest rate increase today, they could really throw some ice water on last week’s rally, and perhaps the entirety of the recovery seen in October, by simply suggesting that conditions in the economy are bringing us significantly closer to the day of reckoning.

On Thursday the GDP is released and national retailers begin their turn for reporting earnings soon.

The last GDP was stronger than expected and another month’s worth of that kind of data, especially if there are also upward revisions, could upset traders, who really have no reason to be upset.

While I did spend a little bit of money yesterday, I do have willingness to spend more, but would really still like to see some additional weakness heading into tomorrow’s FOMC Statement release.

This week will continue to be one heavy with earnings and this morning those earnings are continuing to be mixed.

The really big news on earnings will come after the close of trading today when Apple reports and it’s really anyone’s guess how they will report, as it is anyone’s guess how the market will react.

What is clear is that Apple has stopped being a market leader or market barometer and this week it’s option premiums were actually not very enticing, given what seems to be more uncertainty than in the recent past.

For today, I envision another fairly quiet trading day, although there may be some interest in capturing Ford’s dividend, as it reported earnings this morning and is ex-dividend tomorrow.

Otherwise, it may just be a case of sitting back and joining traders and not do any trading while we all wait for tomorrow.

Daily Market Update – October 26,  2015  (Close)

The final 2 days of last week put a real nail in Volatility’s coffin for now, as it got to see daylight for only a very short time.

I had enjoyed its brief return and wouldn’t mind seeing an encore, especially after having had some assignments last week and cash in hand for re-investment, if the prices are right.

With still lots more earnings reports to come, it’s hard to imagine that this week will provide the same kind of fertile ground for the market as was the case last week.

Last week we had gifts from the ECB and the People’s Bank of China, in addition to really great earnings from a trio of companies that could conceivably reflect what’s going on in a big portion of the economy.

But other than those three, albeit very important companies, there hasn’t been too much to get excited about.

If you’re the kind that looks at bad earnings news as being the sort of thing that delays an interest rate hike you would be happy, so the news from that trio may put a damper on things a thought now turns to what the FOMC will do this week as it meets and releases its Statement on Wednesday.

More likely than the FOMC actually doing anything, though, is it saying something. It may take note of improving conditions in China and more likely, signs of a recovering consumer led economy in the United States.

Until then, though, we still have half of the trading week to figure out where things were going.

The rally of last week on Thursday and Friday have altered my position that we would see a rally heading into the FOMC Statement release, in anticipation of no real policy change coming from the FOMC.

This morning’s futures pointed to a much more tentative investing environment and that’s just what the day ended up being.

With a nice amount of cash raised from last week’s assignments, I still wouldn’t mind opening some new positions, after today’s single purchase, especially since there were none expiring this week and only 2 ex-dividend positions to generate income flow.

As in past weeks I’m mostly inclined to do so in the face of some declining prices. Lately the market has been good about doing that as the week has opened.

In the past few weeks even a flat opening may have seemed a little bit of an invitation, but following the rapid surges of last week, I think I want to see some more being given back before committing much in the way of new funds.

The S&P 500 is now barely 3% lower from its all time highs after having dropped almost 12 %.

That’s a pretty sizeable gain in less than a single month, so I may want to sit on cash a little bit more than has been the case the past few weeks.

With the market pointing toward a flat open to begin the week I’ll probably be more tentative than I usually like being, but I do like having some more cash in hand than has been the case for quite a while and don’t want to get deep in the hole again so quickly, particularly as a single word change in an otherwise dry tome put out by the FOMC can dash the entire party very quickly.

Daily Market Update – October 26,  2015  (7:00 AM)

The final 2 days of last week put a real nail in Volatility’s coffin for now, as it got to see daylight for only a very short time.

I had enjoyed its brief return and wouldn’t mind seeing an encore, especially after having had some assignments last week and cash in hand for re-investment, if the prices are right.

With still lots more earnings reports to come, it’s hard to imagine that this week will provide the same kind of fertile ground for the market as was the case last week.

Last week we had gifts from the ECB and the People’s Bank of China, in addition to really great earnings from a trio of companies that could conceivably reflect what’s going on in a big portion of the economy.

But other than those three, albeit very important companies, there hasn’t been too much to get excited about.

If you’re the kind that looks at bad earnings news as being the sort of thing that delays an interest rate hike you would be happy, so the news from that trio may put a damper on things a thought now turns to what the FOMC will do this week as it meets and releases its Statement on Wednesday.

More likely than the FOMC actually doing anything, though, is it saying something. It may take note of improving conditions in China and more likely, signs of a recovering consumer led economy in the United States.

Until then, though, we still have half of the trading week to figure out where things were going.

The rally of last week on Thursday and Friday have altered my position that we would see a rally heading into the FOMC Statement release, in anticipation of no real policy change coming from the FOMC.

This morning’s futures point to a much more tentative investing environment.

With a nice amount of cash raised from last week’s assignments, I wouldn’t mind opening some new positions, especially since there are none expiring this week and only 2 ex-dividend positions to generate income flow.

As in past weeks I’m mostly inclined to do so in the face of some declining prices. Lately the market has been good about doing that as the week has opened.

In the past few weeks even a flat opening may have seemed a little bit of an invitation, but following the rapid surges of last week, I think I want to see some more being given back before committing much in the way of new funds.

The S&P 500 is now barely 3% lower from its all time highs after having dropped almost 12 %.

That’s a pretty sizeable gain in less than a single month, so I may want to sit on cash a little bit more than has been the case the past few weeks.

With the market pointing toward a flat open to begin the week I’ll probably be more tentative than I usually like being, but I do like having some more cash in hand than has been the case for quite a while and don’t want to get deep in the hole again so quickly, particularly as a single word change in an otherwise dry tome put out by the FOMC can dash the entire party very quickly.

Daily Market Update – October 23,  2015  (8:15 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  BBY ($33.50), MET, 

Rollovers:  MS, WMT

Expirations:  BBY ($37), IP, STX (puts)

The following were ex-dividend this week:  FAST (10/23 $0.28)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  KMI (10/29 $0.51), WY (10/28 $0.31)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – October 22,  2015  (Close)

The earnings keep coming as this week and next are traditionally the busiest ones for earnings of the DJIA members and key S&P 500 players.

For the most part the results have been pretty underwhelming with the same tired story of companies reporting beats on earnings, but having missed on revenues.

While that was true this morning, the earnings reported after the closing bell were going to be quite another story and may give today’s 320 point DJIA some legs for even more.

But even with that good news, I still don’t quite understand what investors get so hung up on the EPS metric, especially when it is so easily manipulated, as has been the case for the past couple of years with an avalanche of stock buy backs.

There has to be some better way of comparing relative performance from one time period to the next and to your peers.

More importantly, there has to be some measure that’s less easy to bend through the use of investor’s cash that’s sitting in the corporate bank vault.

Granted, there are always different accounting tools that can be used to accentuate certain aspects of both items in the assets and liabilities columns, but there should be some replicable measure that simply looks at operating revenues and operating expenses that strips out all of the fudge factors that creep in to those numbers.

That’s too easy and makes management too accountable for performance, so that will never happen. Part of it is also due to the IRS code that allows for periodic manipulation and difficulty in making those quarterly comparisons.

One thing that you rarely hear anymore when earnings are being reported is the phrase “clean number.” There are just so many adjustments from quarter to quarter that investors are often left to shoot blindly when earnings are released, so it’s no wonder why you so often see incredibly wild gyrations immediately after the earnings are released, although they are also accentuated by the low trading volume seen in the after hours or prior to the market’s opening.

Maybe there should simply be a freeze on trading from the time earnings are reported to the end of the conference call.

Right. As if that’s ever going to happen, as gambling is still a big part of “investing” and there are many who play for the big moves and very quickly take profits or cut losses, if they can find someone on the other side of the trade,

This morning looked like another relatively quiet one, although the futures had been slowly working their way higher, especially the DJIA which is getting a very big pop from McDonalds as its earnings have surprised everyone and its shares are taking their single biggest one day move that I can ever recall.

The rest of the market did take note, but most of the credit was given to the ECB, when Mario Draghi gave reason to believe that another round of Quantitative Easing was in the works.

That may have had some applicability to our own markets up until 4 PM today. Up until that time, with no really consistently positive news coming from earnings, there didn’t appear to be anything to convince the FOMC that this was the time for them to raise rates next week.

Some of this afternoon’s earnings, though, may be the first series of numbers to paint a different picture of things.

The FOMC members are no doubt paying attention and they have no doubt listened to the views of overseas central banks and the IMF. Now all they have to do is balance the opinions of opposing sides with the data.

While there was no real reason for partying this week, the party was pronounced.

Initially I thought that there was going to be plenty of reason to party next week in anticipation of free and easy money policy continuing, even though the anticipated rate increase would still leave us in the same kind of environment.

Now I’m less certain of there being reason to drive prices up even more. That may be bordering on being reckless.

But until then the rest of this week will still likely be just sitting back and seeing what opportunities may present themselves or get taken away, with regard to those positions expiring this week. After having opened 3 new positions and with only a single position expiring next week, I’d like to have some opportunity to raise cash through assignments in order to create new positions next week and keep the income generating cycle moving forward.