Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – May 11, 2015  (8:30 AM)

Generally, when the week opens following a large move higher to close the previous week, I like to see the market give back most, if not all of those gains.

That’s because those large Friday gains are usually associated with some assignments and with money in hand on Monday, I don’t like the idea of paying up for positions that went up sharply just the previous trading session.

This week is a little bit different, though.

For one thing, it was another week of not having any assignments or fewer than I had hoped to have. So there’s less cash available for new positions and I tend to be very reluctant to use margin credit for leverage, other than to sell covered puts.

So, with the prospect of not likely making any new purchases, I  would much rather see existing positions thrive.

That’s especially the case since this is the end of the May 2015 option cycle and I have a lot of positions riding on the week’s outcome. I would definitely like to see the market continue its climb higher and then end the week with some assignments, or at least rollovers to keep the cash stream flowing.

Even without many assignments over the past week the cash flow has been able to continue as rollovers have been possible for most positions. That at least makes day to day stock watching a little more palatable while waiting for an opportunity to be more pro-active.

As with most weeks the question remains the same, though.

What are the week’s upcoming catalysts to send us higher or to send us lower?

Just like last week this coming week is going to be a very slow one for economic news. It won’t even have anything akin to the previous week’s Employment Situation Report. That, alongside Janet Yellen’s unexpected comment, were the only two catalysts for the week and they sent markets in competing directions.

This week we have tomorrow’s JOLT Survey and Wednesday’s Retail Sales Report.

The former, despite Janet Yellen suggesting that it was an important measure of economic growth, has been widely ignored and the Retail Sales Report won’t hold a candle to the actual earnings reports coming this week from the nation’s leading retailers that actually kick off about an hour prior to the release of the Retail Sales Report.

Those company earnings may be far more important than anything else this week, especially if they give the slightest hint that consumers are finally starting to get involved with the discretionary spending that we’ve been waiting over 6 months to begin seeing.

The pre-opening futures are sitting on the flat line, as might have been expected with such little news coming through, although there was some weekend news out of China that could have set the stage for some optimism in the US, as we are increasingly reliant upon a booming Chinese economy for our own health, but so far that doesn’t appear to be the case.

With that flat line seemingly preparing the market for its open, hopefully there will continue to be some opportunities to sell calls on existing positions as has been the case the past few weeks, although there still may continue to be reason to look at extended option expiration dates to do so.

Otherwise, I expect it to be a fairly passive morning and don’t expect too much action to start the week as I hold on tightly to what little cash is in my pockets at the moment.

Daily Market Update – May 8 , 2015  (8:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6:00 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  ANF

Expirations:  AZN, LVS, WFM

The following positions were ex-dividend this week:  INTC (5/5 $0.24), BP (5/6 $0.60).  

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.

Daily Market Update – May 7 , 2015  (Close)

The one lesson that can be learned from Alan Greenspan and Janet Yellen is that the market doesn’t like it when they vocalize an opinion that essentially says that they believe stocks are too expensive.

Whether it’s Greenspan’s “frothy exuberance” or Yellen’s questioning of bio-technology stock prices, yesterday’s comment  that equities were “priced quite high,” seemed to get an immediate response.

While the knee-jerk reaction is hard to argue, the longer term consequence is less clear cut, as such statements have tended to lead toward the market or the sector to move higher.

Despite a late minute reduction in the decline, taking it out of triple digit territory, yesterday was a very negative trading session, adding onto the decline from the day before.

Lately, when faced with a decline of some note there has been a reflexive bounce back the following day, so yesterday did stand out a little for not following that pattern.

In a week that has basically no scheduled news sometimes it doesn’t take too much to make things happen and yesterday was a good example of that. Tomorrow, however, as the Employment Situation Report is released and most expect a bounce much higher from last month’s disappointing report, anything can happen.

Both “too good” and “bad” are likely to lead in the same downward direction and even “as expected” may be seen as a disappointment.

This morning’s futures, just prior to the Jobless Claims Report had already shown quite a bit of improvement and was only very slightly lower, hopefully putting the brakes on the past couple of days and giving those positions expiring this week a chance to either be assigned or get rolled over. The past few days put either of those goals a little further off the horizon.

With the Jobless Claims Report released and essentially showing no change, the market also showed essentially no change from its improved position and looked at least be ready to start the day without the extreme prejudice that was hanging over it yesterday.

Instead, it actually provided a nice surprise, as the market actually spent quite a bit of the day in triple digit gain territory and at least was there long enough to allow a couple of rollovers. Of course, that doesn’t leave too much for tomorrow, although there may at least be one rollover or assignment still in contention.

Hopefully there will be some more rally tomorrow, even a relief rally would be fine right now, as long as giving some chance to generate some more income from holdings.

As we close in on next week’s month ending expirations and with enough expiring positions to get my attention, we will hopefully not be taken further away from the goal line heading into the expiration date.

After that anything is fair game

 

Daily Market Update – May 7 , 2015  (8:45 AM)

The one lesson that can be learned from Alan Greenspan and Janet Yellen is that the market doesn’t like it when they vocalize an opinion that essentially says that they believe stocks are too expensive.

Yesterday, should have been a quiet day, but then someone remembered that bonds were starting to pose a threat to stocks, as their interest rate has been climbing higher and higher.Whether it’s Greenspan’s “frothy exuberance” or Yellen’s questioning of bio-technology stock prices, yesterday’s comment  that equities were “priced quite high,” seemed to get an immediate response.

While the knee-jerk reaction is hard to argue, the longer term consequence is less clear cut, as such statements have tended to lead toward the market or the sector to move higher.

Despite a late minute reduction in the decline, taking it out of triple digit territory, it was a very negative trading session, adding onto the decline from the day before.

Lately, when faced with a decline of some note there has been a reflexive bounce back the following day, so yesterday did stand out a little for not following that pattern.

In a week that has basically no scheduled news sometimes it doesn’t take too much to make things happen and yesterday was a good example of that. Tomorrow, however, as the Employment Situation Report is released and most expect a bounce much higher from last month’s disappointing report, anything can happen.

Both “too good” and “bad” are likely to lead in the same downward direction and even “as expected” may be seen as a disappointment.

This morning’s futures, just prior to the Jobless Claims Report has already shown quite a bit of improvement and is only very slightly lower, hopefully putting the brakes on the past couple of days and giving those positions expiring this week a chance to either be assigned or get rolled over. The past few days put either of those goals a little further off the horizon.

With the Jobless Claims Report released and essentially showing no change, the market also showed essentially no change from its improved position and may, at least be ready to start the day without the extreme prejudice that was hanging over it yesterday.

Hopefully there will be some rally, even a relief rally would be fine right now, as long as giving some chance to generate some more income from holdings, but for now that doesn’t look too likely today.

As we close in on next week’s month ending expirations and with enough expiring positions to get my attention, we will hopefully not be taken further away from the goal line heading into the expiration date.

After that anything is fair game

Daily Market Update – May 6 , 2015  (Close)

Yesterday, should have been a quiet day, but then someone remembered that bonds were starting to pose a threat to stocks, as their interest rate has been climbing higher and higher.

That move isn’t the first one in the past couple of months, as an earlier one mis-read the likelihood of the FOMC making an interest rate change and then very quickly retreated.

This week Friday’s Employment Situation Report could make the difference between those rates going higher or returning below 2%.

Last month’s report was pretty abysmal, but this time around the expectations are for some good numbers, returning to a stronger path that had been the case up until very recently.

Whether a strong earnings number heats up concerns over an interest rate increase is anyone’s guess, but it probably would do so.

In light of bond rates moving higher and the FOMC removing any calendar references to the timing of an increase, while re-iterating its dependence on data, would make you think that the slightest evidence of an economy heating up might finally be enough to move those rates higher.

Then we will probably get a collective sigh and maybe that will prove to be the catalyst for the market itself moving higher. After all, even at 2.2%, the bond market isn’t that much of an attractive competitor to stocks.

Yesterday’s plunge seemed to be entirely related to bond worries and this morning the market, if it follows the recent pattern, will be setting itself up for a recovery bounce higher, albeit on much lower volume.

As the morning futures are trading, at least there was a mild move higher in advance of the ADP release. That release, unless it is really somewhere unexpectedly high or low, doesn’t do too much to move the needle, but does give people a sense of where the government employment statistics may be leaning.

As usual, despite a somewhat disappointing ADP statistic, the market didn‘t really seem to care.

What it did care about was an errant comment by Janet Yellin who said that she believed that equities were priced “quite high.”

That’ll do it.

And so the market put together another of these decidedly negative days, so much so that the DJIA is now unchanged for 2015

For now, my eyes and attention are focused on trying to extricate from any positions that are due to expire this week. Yesterday’s decline made both the prospects or rollovers and assignments become more and more distant, but lately big moves have become more frequent, so you never do know what may unfold over the next couple of trading days, especially with a big event on Friday.

Today did nothing to help things.

More importantly, though, at this point, is being left in a good position so that next week’s monthly option cycle ending week goes off smoothly and delivers a good combination of rollovers and assignments.

For that, we will need Thursday and Friday to cooperate.

Daily Market Update – May , 2015  (Close)

Yesterday, was as it should have been, a fairly quiet day, even though it did spend a bit of time in the triple digit gain arena.

Other than this week’s Employment Situation Report coming on Friday, there’s not too much to drive markets, as earnings reports are also now going to begin slowing down.It ended the day with a much more moderated gain and that looked as it will be the polar opposite to this morning, as the futures were setting up for a moderately lower day.

Again, there’s no news that should play much of a hand in shaping the day’s trading. Other than tomorrow’s ADP report, which is just a precursor to Friday’s Employment Situation Report, there’s nothing on the docket.

Even after a period of time when there was a quiet period on FOMC speeches, it’s a pretty quiet week on that end, as well.

At some point, especially if it continues heading in its recent direction, someone is going to take note of where bond traders have been taking the rate on the 10 Year Treasury. It’s still below that recent 2.3% high point from a couple of months ago, but it has gone about 15% higher in just a week. As it moves higher not only does it create more pressure in other interest sensitive areas, but it may finally start offering some competition for whatever uncommitted investment dollars are out there.

However, if you listen to the people at TD Ameritrade, it doesn’t seem as if there is that much un-invested money sitting in accounts, at least not for individual investors. On top of that, margin debt is at an all time high.

Take those bits of information together and you have less of a catalyst for upward move in stocks and the prospects that any move into bonds would have to come at the expense of money already invested in stocks.

So the burden of proof is definitely on the bulls, maybe even more than usual.

By the early afternoon, as the DJIA was at a triple digit loss, came the first suggestions that bonds may have been the source of the weakness being seen.

Maybe, but we’ll see where those rates keep going. It wasn’t too long ago that they did the same thing and then had to reverse course as it was getting more and more clear that the FOMC wasn’t going anywhere fast with any decision on raising rates.

With a couple of purchases yesterday, I think that i am done for the week. Not that I have the cash reserves to go on, but the rest of the week will likely be spent looking for any opportunity to generate some additional revenue. As always, the includes the need to keep fingers crossed and to hope for any of a few different outcomes.

Most of all, I would love to see those prayers answered with some assignments.Those are still looking a little bleak, so I may be willing to actually let the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF go, rather than rolling if it is in the money, as I’ve been doing repeatedly over the past few months.

With today’s negative opening looming and then becoming a reality, I was hopeful of seeing some isolated bumps in individual positions and would again have gladly taken any opportunity to generate some revenue from any uncovered positions.

Maybe tomorrow.

Daily Market Update – May , 2015  (9:30 AM)

Yesterday, was as it should have been, a fairly quiet day, even though it did spend a bit of time in the triple digit gain arena.

Other than this week’s Employment Situation Report coming on Friday, there’s not too much to drive markets, as earnings reports are also now going to begin slowing down.It ended the day with a much more moderated gain and that looks as it will be the polar opposite to this morning, as the futures are setting up for a moderately lower day.

Again, there’s no news that should play much of a hand in shaping the day’s trading. Other than tomorrow’s ADP report, which is just a precursor to Friday’s Employment Situation Report, there’s nothing on the docket.

Even after a period of time when there was a quiet period on FOMC speeches, it’s a pretty quiet week on that end, as well.

At some point, especially if it continues heading in its recent direction, someone is going to take note of where bond traders have been taking the rate on the 10 Year Treasury. It’s still below that recent 2.3% high point from a couple of months ago, but it has gone about 15% higher in just a week. AS it moves higher not only does it create more pressure in other interest sensitive areas, but it may finally start offering some competition for whatever uncommitted investment dollars are out there.

However, if you listen to the people at TD Ameritrade, it doesn’t seem as if there is that much un-invested money sitting in accounts, at least not for individual investors. On top of that, margin debt is at an all time high.

Take those bits of information together and you have less of a catalyst for upward move in stocks and the prospects that any move into bonds would have to come at the expense of money already invested in stocks.

So the burden of proof is definitely on the bulls, maybe even more than usual.

With a couple of purchases yesterday, I think that i am done for the week. Not that I have the cash reserves to go on, but the rest of the week will likely be spent looking for any opportunity to generate some additional revenue. As always, the includes the need to keep fingers crossed and to hope for any of a few different outcomes.

Most of all, I would love to see those prayers answered with some assignments.Those are still looking a little bleak, so I may be willing to actually let the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF go, rather than rolling if it is in the money, as I’ve been doing repeatedly over the past few months.

With today’s negative opening looming and not really in the market for any bargains, I’m just hopeful to see some isolated bumps in individual positions and would again gladly take any opportunity to generate some revenue from any uncovered positions.

Daily Market Update – May 4, 2015  (Close)

Other than this week’s Employment Situation Report coming on Friday, there’s not too much to drive markets, as earnings reports are also now going to begin slowing down.

The week should be a fairly boring one as far as inputs go, but you never know what the output is going to look like. At least last week had the kind of news events that could be expected to shake markets. This week, we will have to wait until Friday for events, but the shaking could still come at any time while markets teeter at their tops.

Today, despite flirting at some higher levels, it was still a fairly boring day, but at least some opportunities were there to be had.

Last week was somewhat rescued by Friday’s performance and the week ended with only a small loss, but still left the S&P 500 within about 0.4% of its all time high.

Close enough to be easily eclipsed today, e-ven with a fairly mediocre close.

Whatever the large moves were last week and there were those in both directions, there was little news or reason to account for the swings, other than by its very nature, swings move in opposite directions.

While the market has maintained its levels near those highs and actually built on them just a little, the prevailing question remains where the catalyst is coming from.

That’s always an ever-present question, but sometimes it’s harder to see answers. now is one of those times that it’s hard to see an answer.

In the longer term, that is the next earnings season, the catalyst might be the fact that we’ve been set up to have lowered expectations, but the bottom line could change for the better if the dollar weakens a little and top line revenues are enhanced.

But until that point it may be a mystery as to what leads us to the next level higher. Usually, it has to be the promise of growth and the latest promise of growth coming from lower oil prices hasn’t materialized, while in the meantime those prices have now begun edging higher.

The Employment Situation Report could give some reason to think that economic expansion is taking hold at a greater pace, but the past month was a disappointment. Since we’re pretty much assigned to interest rates going higher, a large number on new jobs creation shouldn’t frighten anyone away, but there aren’t too many indications that a really large number is in store for this month’s report.

With no assignments last week, but having had the good fortune of being able to make the rollover trades necessary, it was possible to create the week’s income stream. That was thanks to Friday’s recovery. But as a result of no cash recycling, I didn’t expect to be in the market to add many new positions this week, so I was a little surprised by actually adding 2 positions. I was also surprised that one of them was for next week’s expiration, since that reduced the chance of recycling money this week in order to be positioned to do something new the following week as the May 2015 option cycle will come to its close.

My hope is that there continues to be some opportunity to sell calls on existing uncovered positions and slowly attack that unwanted pile and see the market add to Friday’s gains so that the handful of positions expiring this week are at least in position to be rolled over. Today, was just a teeny step in that direction, but every teeny bit is also welcome.

Ultimately, it’s whatever it takes to make the week’s income and hopefully have some more money at the bottom line for the efforts.

Daily Market Update – May 4, 2015  (8:30 AM)

Other than this week’s Employment Situation Report coming on Friday, there’s not too much to drive markets, as earnings reports are also now going to begin slowing down.

The week should be a fairly boring one as far as inputs go, but you never know what the output is going to look like. At least last week had the kind of news events that could be expected to shake markets. This week, we will have to wait until Friday for events, but the shaking could still come at any time while markets teeter at their tops.

Last week was somewhat rescued by Friday’s performance and the week ended with only a small loss, but still left the S&P 500 within about 0.4% of its all time high. Whatever the large moves were last week and there were those in both directions, there was little news or reason to account for the swings, other than by its very nature, swings move in opposite directions.

While the market has maintained its levels near those highs and actually built on them just a little, the prevailing question remains where the catalyst is coming from.

That’s always an ever-present question, but sometimes it’s harder to see answers. now is one of those times that it’s hard to see an answer.

In the longer term, that is the next earnings season, the catalyst might be the fact that we’ve been set up to have lowered expectations, but the bottom line could change for the better if the dollar weakens a little and top line revenues are enhanced.

But until that point it may be a mystery as to what leads us to the next level higher. Usually, it has to be the promise of growth and the latest promise of growth coming from lower oil prices hasn’t materialized, while in the meantime those prices have now begun edging higher.

The Employment Situation Report could give some reason to think that economic expansion is taking hold at a greater pace, but the past month was a disappointment. Since we’re pretty much assigned to interest rates going higher, a large number on new jobs creation shouldn’t frighten anyone away, but there aren’t too many indications that a really large number is in store for this month’s report.

With no assignments last week, but having had the good fortune of being able to make the rollover trades necessary, it was possible to create the week’s income stream. That was thanks to Friday’s recovery. But as a result of no cash recycling, I don’t expect to be in the market to add many new positions this week. Any new purchases are likely to look at expirations this week so that there is at least some chance of recycling money in order to be positioned to do something new the following week as the May 2015 option cycle will come to its close.

My hope is that there continues to be some opportunity to sell calls on existing uncovered positions and slowly attack that unwanted pile and see the market add to Friday’s gains so that the handful of positions expiring this week are at least in position to be rolled over.

Ultimately, it’s whatever it takes to make the week’s income and hopefully have some more money at the bottom line for the efforts.

 

Daily Market Update – May 1, 2015  (8:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6:00 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcome are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  TWTR (puts)

Expirations:   GM, GPS, KMI, KO

The following were ex-dividend this week: Kinder Morgan (4/28 $0.48)

The following will be ex-dividend next week: Intel (5/5 $0.24)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made before 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – April 30, 2015  (Close)

Mid-week, just like mid-town, was a busy place to be yesterday.

In addition to all of the earnings reports coming in and the continued focus on the manner in which the Twitter earnings were released and its aftermath, there were also the GDP Report and the FOMC Statement release to be digested.

The Twitter earnings, while fascinating in the manner in which they were prematurely released, was a non-event. Twitter won’t ever be a stock that actually moves markets, as even its continued existence as a standalone company is called into question, as its leadership runs from crisis of faith to crisis of faith.

On the other hand, the GDP Report and the FOMC Statement are meaningful, even if they don’t act as stimuli for change.

Not yesterday, though.

FOMC Statement release would be this morning and afternoon, respectively, but the Twitter debacle last night may still keep people’s attention for a while.The GDP Report was, as expected, not very encouraging. It failed to reflect what most everyone has been waiting for over the past 6 months. Anyone who has been waiting for a consumer led expansion of the economy has had to put those hopes on hold.

While expecting nothing, the market got even less than that.

At least the FOMC didn’t add to the disappointment, as it basically said nothing, other than to remove all temporal references and to re-emphasize that it would be driven by data.

Today, in addition to more earnings, are also Jobless Claims and “Personal Income and Outlays” reports.

The latter may be the first in a series of data points that the FOMC may use when considering a June interest rate hike, which is the time that so many had predicted it would finally become a reality.

So far, it’s hard to see where the economic growth necessary to spur interest rate increases will come from, although the bond market did drive interest rates higher yesterday. While they are generally thought to understand macro-economic events better than stock traders, the bond market has been really volatile of late, so there’s no real reason to believe that they know anything more than the next guy at the moment.

As this morning’s reports were released Jobless claims were well reduced, but personal income and spending left something to be desired and the pre-opening markets were basically unchanged.

With yesterday’s weakness, the prospects of rollovers or assignments was made more distant and this morning’s pre-open futures didn’t appear as they will be helping the situation. But at least the morning’s news didn‘t drive them deeper into the red, so there was always hope as the next 2 days would unfold and more earnings are released and maybe an FOMC Governor or two say something during prepared remarks that might goose the market a little higher before Friday’s expirations roll around.

That was the hope, anyway.

Sounds great on paper, but that’s not the way it worked out as the market may have just realized that nothing is really there to give any one a reason to keep pushing the “buy” button.

With at least an opportunity to rollover shares of United Continental the day wasn’t a complete loss. Interestingly, while just about everything was lower today, those positions that are expiring tomorrow, while now further away from their strikes, didn’t suffer as badly as the overall market.

So there always some hope for tomorrows’s trading, although it is disappointing that April 2015 goes out on such a negative note and barely finished the month higher, in contrast to the way Aprils are usually expected to perform.

 

Daily Market Update – April 30, 2015  (8:45 AM)

Mid-week, just like mid-town, was a busy place to be yesterday.

to all of the earnings reports coming in and the continued focus on the manner in which the Twitter earnings were released and its aftermath, there were also the GDP Report and the FOMC Statement release to be digested.

The Twitter earnings, while fascinating in the manner in which they were prematurely released, was a non-event. Twitter won’t ever be a stock that actually moves markets, as even its continued existence as a standalone company is called into question, as its leadership runs from crisis of faith to crisis of faith.

On the other hand, the GDP Report and the FOMC Statement are meaningful, even if they don’t act as stimuli for change.

Not yesterday, though.

FOMC Statement release would be this morning and afternoon, respectively, but the Twitter debacle last night may still keep people’s attention for a while.The GDP Report was, as expected, not very encouraging. It failed to reflect what most everyone has been waiting for over the past 6 months. Anyone who has been waiting for a consumer led expansion of the economy has had to put those hopes on hold.

While expecting nothing, the market got even less than that.

At least the FOMC didn’t add to the disappointment, as it basically said nothing, other than to remove all temporal references and to re-emphasize that it would be driven by data.

Today, in addition to more earnings, are also Jobless Claims and “Personal Income and Outlays” reports.

The latter may be the first in a series of data points that the FOMC may use when considering a June interest rate hike, which is the time that so many had predicted it would finally become a reality.

So far, it’s hard to see where the economic growth necessary to spur interest rate increases will come from, although the bond market did drive interest rates higher yesterday. While they are generally thought to understand macro-economic events better than stock traders, the bond market has been really volatile of late, so there’s no real reason to believe that they know anything more than the next guy at the moment.

As this morning’s reports were released Jobless claims were well reduced, but personal income and spending left something to be desired and the pre-opening markets were basically unchanged.

With yesterday’s weakness, the prospects of rollovers or assignments was made more distant and this morning’s pre-open futures don’t appear as they will be helping the situation, but at least the morning’s news didn‘t drive them deeper into the red, so there’s always hope as the next 2 days unfold and more earnings are released and maybe an FOMC Governor or two say something during prepared remarks that may goose the market a little higher before Friday’s expirations roll around.

Daily Market Update – April 29, 2015  (Close)

I didn’t know what the outcome of the GDP Report and the FOMC Statement release would be this morning and afternoon, respectively, but the Twitter debacle last night may still keep people’s attention for a while.

Like most news, though, even the most highly significant economic news, it will be forgotten as soon as the next bit of news comes forward. But its CEO did nothing to instill confidence today, as the shares tumbled even further after his appearance on TV, despite having tried to claw back some of this morning’s additional losses prior to his appearance.

Twitter aside, there were two potentially very significant events and still more earnings to come today.

Those earnings reports will be slowing down significantly once this week is over. At that point every one will try to interpret what the meaning of the past earnings season had been and what the prospects are for the coming quarter.

For now, the theme appears to not be ready to change any time soon. The dollar is strong and oil prices, despite rallying higher, are still low.

While this quarter was characterized by higher EPS data, but on lower top line revenue, as long as corporate buy backs continue into the next quarter, there may be some offset for the adverse impact of a strong dollar.

What may be different the next quarter is that if low energy prices do continue we may see the kind of consumer led expansion of the GDP that we’ve been waiting for since the beginning of 2015.

This morning the expectation was for another set of disappointing GDP statistics, so it was just a question of seeing  whether those expectations were met and whether they  were already baked into markets.

we’ll see where that leads if materialized or where a surprise may lead if expansion is finally noted.The answers are, “yes, they were materialized, but no, they weren’t fully baked into markets.”

While never looking very strong, even in the pre-open futures, once the GDP data was released and really was disappointing, there never was much of a reason to go higher.

The ensuing FOMC Statement release did nothing either, although it really had no worthwhile news or change, other than to try and remove attention from the calendar and point more to an FOMC that would be data driven, rather than coerced by the passage of time.

With enough new positions opened this week to keep me happy and generating some weekly income, I’d like to see prices strengthen a little bit more to have a better opportunity to see those positions set to expire this week either be assigned or get rolled over.

Today wasn’t going to be that day, though. Luckily, there are still 2 more days to go.

While I didn’t expect to make any new position trades yesterday, but did so, my expectations were even lower today, as they are on most Wednesdays when focus really turns to managing existing positions to close out the week or be put into position for subsequent weeks.

No one was more surprised than me when I did sell Twitter puts.

With today’s big economic news there was even more reason to just be a casual observer at the ready to sell calls on existing positions, but that opportunity never arrived. Instead, I chose to put more cash at risk for a week that doesn’t now look as if there will be too many chances to get additional income from rollovers or to replenish cash from assignments.

Still, that could all change tomorrow.

Daily Market Update – April 29, 2015  (8:30 AM)

I don’t know what the outcome of the GDP Report and the FOMC Statement release will be but the Twitter debacle last night may still keep people’s attention for a while.

Like most news, though, even the most highly significant economic news, it will be forgotten as soon as the next bit of news comes forward.

So today will have two potentially very significant events and still more earnings to come.

Those earnings reports will be slowing down significantly once this week is over. At that point every one will try to interpret what the meaning of the past earnings season had been and what the prospects are for the coming quarter.

For now, the theme appears to not be ready to change any time soon. The dollar is strong and oil prices, despite rallying higher, are still low.

While this quarter was characterized by higher EPS data, but on lower top line revenue, as long as corporate buy backs continue into the next quarter, there may be some offset for the adverse impact of a strong dollar.

What may be different the next quarter is that if low energy prices do continue we may see the kind of consumer led expansion of the GDP that we’ve been waiting for since the beginning of 2015.

This morning the expectation is for another set of disappointing GDP statistics, so we’ll see where that leads if materialized or where a surprise may lead if expansion is finally noted.

With enough new positions opened this week to keep me happy and generating some weekly income, I’d like to see prices strengthen a little bit more to have a better opportunity to see those positions set to expire this week either be assigned or get rolled over.

While I didn’t expect to make any new position trades yesterday, but did so, my expectations are even lower today, as they are on most Wednesdays when focus really turns to managing existing positions to close out the week or be put into position for subsequent weeks.

With today’s big economic news there’s even more reason to just be a casual observer at the ready to sell calls on existing positions if the opportunity arrives, but not to put more cash at risk.

Something always needs to be held back in the event that real opportunity appears in the event of anything that’s going to be construed as bad news, especially if it has some staying power, or leads to the next mini-correction.

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