Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update –  October 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: MRO $14.50 (puts), MRO ($15 puts)

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:    F (10/25 $0.15), KMI (10/28 $0.125), MS (10/27 $0.20), WY (10/26 $0.31)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update –  October 27, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday wasn’t a great day for the market, but it wasn’t really bad either.

That made two consecutive days of real boring activity.

Today, the morning’s futures appeared to want to be a clone of both of those days, which were days characterized by no really great earnings news and no great guidance.

The morning’s news yesterday got off to a decent start with some optimistic news, this time not so much earnings related, but more on the buyout front.

Suddenly, that activity has heated up as maybe there is a perception that prices are cheap and cheap money is coming to an end.

You would, however, think that perhaps the end of cheap money could be a reason to drive share prices a bit lower, but if you’re spending other people’s money, why wait?

There are lots of earnings to come today, both before and after the bell.

Meanwhile, the early morning futures were again fairly flat, but they had improved from where they started trading in the earliest part of the session.

They actually ended the day higher, even though it was another boring day, except for one opportunity to sell some calls on an uncovered position. 

As has been the case since the last few months of 2015, that has meant looking at a longer dated option, though.

With that done, my eyes were and will be predominantly on oil, as both expiring positions are in that sector and earnings are coming up next week, so I would like to have a plan in hand and be able to execute over the next 2 trading days.

At the moment, the plan is to take assignment of those short puts, if necessary and the hope to sell some calls that expire during the week of the upcoming ex-dividend date, which was just announced as being on Monday, November 14th.

Otherwise, it will likely continue being a very quiet and watchful week with attention focusing on Friday morning’s GDP release.

If that number is strong and if it is accompanied by some revisions to previous months, traders could look for buyers as they seek to take profits.

However, unless the Atlanta Federal Reserve is wrong, and they haven’t been all year long, they continued recently to be dour about the GDP, so it may be instrumental to take their cue, even as employment statistics are improving and consumers are reportedly returning.

It may really take the retail earnings reports in a couple of weeks to set the record straight and maybe pave the way for whatever remains of 2016.

.

Daily Market Update –  October 27, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday wasn’t a great day for the market, but it wasn’t really bad either.

That made two consecutive days of real boring activity.

Today, the morning’s futures appeared to want to be a clone of both of those days, which were days characterized by no really great earnings news and no great guidance.

The morning’s news yesterday got off to a decent start with some optimistic news, this time not so much earnings related, but more on the buyout front.

Suddenly, that activity has heated up as maybe there is a perception that prices are cheap and cheap money is coming to an end.

You would, however, think that perhaps the end of cheap money could be a reason to drive share prices a bit lower, but if you’re spending other people’s money, why wait?

There are lots of earnings to come today, both before and after the bell.

Meanwhile, the early morning futures were again fairly flat, but they had improved from where they started trading in the earliest part of the session.

They actually ended the day higher, even though it was another boring day, except for one opportunity to sell some calls on an uncovered position. 

As has been the case since the last few months of 2015, that has meant looking at a longer dated option, though.

With that done, my eyes were and will be predominantly on oil, as both expiring positions are in that sector and earnings are coming up next week, so I would like to have a plan in hand and be able to execute over the next 2 trading days.

At the moment, the plan is to take assignment of those short puts, if necessary and the hope to sell some calls that expire during the week of the upcoming ex-dividend date, which was just announced as being on Monday, November 14th.

Otherwise, it will likely continue being a very quiet and watchful week with attention focusing on Friday morning’s GDP release.

If that number is strong and if it is accompanied by some revisions to previous months, traders could look for buyers as they seek to take profits.

However, unless the Atlanta Federal Reserve is wrong, and they haven’t been all year long, they continued recently to be dour about the GDP, so it may be instrumental to take their cue, even as employment statistics are improving and consumers are reportedly returning.

It may really take the retail earnings reports in a couple of weeks to set the record straight and maybe pave the way for whatever remains of 2016.

.

Daily Market Update –  October 27, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday wasn’t a great day for the market, but it wasn’t really bad either.

That made two consecutive days of real boring activity.

Today, the morning’s futures appeared to want to be a clone of both of those days, which were days characterized by no really great earnings news and no great guidance.

The morning’s news yesterday got off to a decent start with some optimistic news, this time not so much earnings related, but more on the buyout front.

Suddenly, that activity has heated up as maybe there is a perception that prices are cheap and cheap money is coming to an end.

You would, however, think that perhaps the end of cheap money could be a reason to drive share prices a bit lower, but if you’re spending other people’s money, why wait?

There are lots of earnings to come today, both before and after the bell.

Meanwhile, the early morning futures are again fairly flat, but they had improved from where they started trading in the earliest part of the session.

My eyes are predominantly on oil, as both expiring positions are in that sector and earnings are coming up next week, so I would like to have a plan in hand and be able to execute over the next 2 trading days.

Otherwise, it will likely continue being a very quiet and watchful week with attention focusing on Friday morning’s GDP release.

If that number is strong and if it is accompanied by some revisions to previous months, traders could look for buyers as they seek to take profits.

However, unless the Atlanta Federal Reserve is wrong, and they haven’t been all year long, they continued recently to be dour about the GDP, so it may be instrumental to take their cue, even as employment statistics are improving and consumers are reportedly returning.

It may really take the retail earnings reports in a couple of weeks to set the record straight and maybe pave the way for whatever remains of 2016.

.

Daily Market Update –  October 26, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday wasn’t a great day for the market, but it wasn’t really bad either.

Today, the morning’s futures appeared to want to be a clone of yesterday, which was a day characterized by no great earnings news and no great guidance.

The morning’s news yesterday got off to a decent start with some optimistic guidance from DuPont, but there was absolutely no follow through.

After the market’s close, Apple showed that its primary money maker was slowing down, but its share price was pretty resilient, despite the lack of any really good news.

Today ended up being another day without direction, nor with any leadership.

At it’s best, you could say that the day was mixed, but at least didn’t follow along with oil, which was again weaker on the day.

We still have so many earnings reports to come in the next 2 weeks that there’s still time for a happy picture to be painted ahead of December’s FOMC meeting, but the early round hasn’t been very impressive.

Still, that could change where it really counts in about 2 weeks as retailers begin their reports.

Those retailers are, by and large, at pretty low prices and they could use a boost. But. the real importance attached to their earnings will be the guidance they provide, especially if they can finally see the silver lining ahead.

I’m not as sanguine about that as I was a week ago, though.

Friday’s GDP will tell us something, but its really up to the retailers to let us know not only what has happened in the last quarter, but what they see ahead.

That may go a long way toward creating confidence that whatever the FOMC may do will be the correct path to take.

Last year, it wasn’t and I’m certain no one wants to repeat that, nor the ensuing sell off to start 2016.

Earnings reported after the trading session’s close were, by and large, better and could conceivably have some follow through for tomorrow, but there really weren’t any big names reporting earnings.

This week is now nearly at its end and with little to distinguish it.

Old timers will tell you that is exactly when the unexpected happens:

When you don’t expect it.

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Daily Market Update –  October 26, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday wasn’t a great day for the market, but it wasn’t really bad either.

Today., the morning’s futures appear to want to be a clone of yesterday, which was a day characterized by no great earnings news and no great guidance.

The morning’s news yesterday got off to a decent start with some optimistic guidance from DuPont, but there was absolutely no follow through.

After the market’s close, Apple showed that its primary money maker was slowing down, but its share price was pretty resilient, despite the lack of any really good news.

We still have so many earnings reports to come in the next 2 weeks that there’s still time for a happy picture to be painted ahead of December’s FOMC meeting, but the early round hasn’t been very impressive.

Still, that could change where it really counts in about 2 weeks as retailers begin their reports.

Those retailers are, by and large, at pretty low prices and they could use a boost. But. the real importance attached to their earnings will be the guidance they provide, especially if they can finally see the silver lining ahead.

I’m not as sanguine about that as I was a week ago, though.

Friday’s GDP will tell us something, but its really up to the retailers to let us know not only what has happened in the last quarter, but what they see ahead.

That may go a long way toward creating confidence that whatever the FOMC may do will be the correct path to take.

Last year, it wasn’t and I’m certain no one wants to repeat that, nor the ensuing sell off to start 2016.

.

Daily Market Update –  October 25, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was a good day for the markets, today not so much.

Despite a fairly sharp decline in oil prices, the market managed to hold onto its gains and was perhaps buoyed by some spreading merger and buyout news.

This morning earnings continued and the first thing that struck me was hearing the early morning release from DuPont, which actually offered some improved guidance.

That’s only one company, but the company matters, as does the sector it’s in.

But not today, because pretty much every other company reporting earnings either disappointed or failed to give cheery guidanve.

DuPont is a building block kind of company. When it sees good things ahead that means that its end users are likely to see good things ahead, especially when DuPont’s revenues are anticipated to rise without currency or pricing being factored into the equation.

The morning’s futures weren’t reflecting much in the way of new optimism, but at least it wasn’t squandering yesterday’s small move forward. 

It took the day’s market to do that as most of the previous day’s gains were lost.

With lots of earnings still to come this week and next and those to then be followed by retailer earnings, there is still plenty of reason for the FOMC to begin feeling justified in inching closer and closer to a December interest rate increase, despite today’s downer of a day.

I think that if investors get to see that there is actually tangible improvement in the economy, particularly if this Friday’s GDP shows an active consumer at work, it may look at that interest rate increase the way it should be interpreted.

That would mean new enthusiasm for stocks, rather than running away for fear of cheap money being taken away.

With one new position opened yesterday and 2 expiring this week, along with 4 ex-dividend positions, I don’t have much need for adding any additional income generating positions.

Yesterday’s trade was a little on the unusual side, in that it was an in the money put sale.

That, of course, lead to a bigger than usual premium and it was done on the weakness in shares.

When selling puts, there’s nothing like doing so on the downslide, as long as there’s not too much more downslide to come. Some of that downside did come today, though, but there are still 3 days in which to recover.

In the case of Marathon Oil, even if there is some more to come, there has been enough volatility in its shares to believe that there will be a chance to live another day and see the downslide reversed.

However, earnings are next week and so I may like the idea of being able to extricate myself, although expectations probably still remain low for the sector as a whole.

I didn’t expect, otherwise to be doing too much today, other than hoping for an isolated chance or two to sell some calls, so I wasn’t totally disappointed, although i did try to get some trades made.

Getting those trades made doesn’t happen frequently enough, but slowly those uncovered positions are finding some of their own income generating opportunities.

Patience has helped, but more may be needed.

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Daily Market Update –  October 25, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was a good day for the markets.

Despite a fairly sharp decline in oil prices, the market managed to hold onto its gains and was perhaps buoyed by some spreading merger and buyout news.

This morning earnings continue and the first thing that struck me was hearing the early morning release from DuPont, which actually offered some improved guidance.

That’s only one company, but the company matters, as does the sector it’s in.

DuPont is a building block kind of company. When it sees good things ahead that means that its end users are likely to see good things ahead, especially when DuPont’s revenues are anticipated to rise without currency or pricing being factored into the equation.

The morning’s futures weren’t reflecting much in the way of new optimism, but at least it wasn’t squandering yesterday’s small move forward.

With lots of earnings still to come this week and next and those to then be followed by retailer earnings, there is still plenty of reason for the FOMC to begin feeling justified in inching closer and closer to a December interest rate increase.

I think that if investors get to see that there is actually tangible improvement in the economy, particularly if this Friday’s GDP shows an active consumer at work, it may look at that interest rate increase the way it should be interpreted.

That would mean new enthusiasm for stocks, rather than running away for fear of cheap money being taken away.

With one new position opened yesterday and 2 expiring this week, along with 4 ex-dividend positions, I don’t have much need for adding any additional income generating positions.

yesterday’s trade was a little on the unusual side, in that it was an in the money put sale.

That, of course, lead to a bigger than usual premium and it was done on the weakness in shares.

When selling puts, there’s nothing like doing so on the downslide, as long as there’s not too much more downslide to come.

In the case of Marathon Oil, even if there is some more to come, there has been enough volatility in its shares to believe that there will be a chance to live another day and see the downslide reversed.

However, earnings are next week and so I may like the idea of being able to extricate myself, although expectations probably still remain low for the sector as a whole.

I don’t expect, otherwise to be doing too much today, other than hoping for an isolated chance or two to sell some calls.

That doesn’t happen frequently enough, but slowly those uncovered positions are finding some of their own income generating opportunities.

Patience has helped.

.

Daily Market Update –  October 24, 2016 (Close)

This has the potential to be a very big week.

It already had that potential before, considering all of the earnings reports that will be flowing in and the week ending GDP report.

What was added to the equation was the blockbuster $85.4 Billion deal and some smaller ones that were announced over the weekend.

What that means is that buyers may believe that there are still some reasonably priced items out there, especially as the window for cheap money may be closing.

Also, if the GDP comes in better than expected, especially if it also includes some upward revisions, the seal on the FOMC deal to raise interest rates may become validated.

What that means for investors is unclear, but as afraid as they are of increased interest rates, they are probably even more fearful of the game being played and the uncertainty hanging over their heads.

The big news for the week may continue to be that huge buyout and all of the speculation regarding regulatory issues and whether it all makes sense, with an eye cast back to the last time Time Warner was in play.

That didn’t work out too well, but I think this time is very, very different.

Different corporate cultures, different times and the knowledge that the future for both partners is here right now and not just speculative dream, as was the case in 2000 or so.

With only one position set to expire this week, 4 ex-dividend positions and some cash from the expiration of short puts, I didn’t know how eager I’d be this week to part with some cash, but it didn’t take long to find out that I was pretty eager to go right back to an old friend.

While I thought that I might take a dip with  AT&T, as it became more appealing after declining  just a little more in price, instead it was once again Marathon Oil, ahead of next week’s earnings always seems appealing.

It should be a busy week on the news front and for my part, i wouldn’t mind some more opportunity to sell some calls on uncovered positions, even if I end up not adding any new positions to the mix.

This week, that’s really my preference, especially after having seen a number of positions expire with the October 2016 contracts coming to their end.

Throw a few Federal reserve people into the mix this week and it may be an interesting one that I think takes the market higher.

Today was a good start in that direction, even as oil faltered.

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Daily Market Update –  October 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)

This has the potential to be a very big week.

It already had that potential before, considering all of the earnings reports that will be flowing in and the week ending GDP report.

What was added to the equation was the blockbuster $85.4 Billion deal and some smaller ones that were announced over the weekend.

What that means is that buyers may believe that there are still some reasonably priced items out there, especially as the window for cheap money may be closing.

Also, if the GDP comes in better than expected, especially if it also includes some upward revisions, the seal on the FOMC deal to raise interest rates may become validated.

What that means for investors is unclear, but as afraid as they are of increased interest rates, they are probably even more fearful of the game being played and the uncertainty hanging over their heads.

The big news for the week may continue to be that huge buyout and all of the speculation regarding regulatory issues and whether it all makes sense, with an eye cast back to the last time Time Warner was in play.

That didn’t work out too well, but I think this time is very, very different.

Different corporate cultures, different times and the knowledge that the future for both partners is here right now and not just speculative dream, as was the case in 2000 or so.

With only one position set to expire this week, 4 ex-dividend positions and some cash from the expiration of short puts, I don’t know how eager I’ll be this week to part with some cash.

By the same token, AT&T, despite spending $85.4, may be appealing if it declines just a little more in price and Marathon Oil, ahead of next week’s earnings always seems appealing.

It should be a busy week on the news front and for my part, i wouldn’t mind some more opportunity to sell some calls on uncovered positions, even if I end up not adding any new positions to the mix.

This week, that’s really my preference, especially after having seen a number of positions expire with the October 2016 contracts coming to their end.

Throw a few Federal reserve people into the mix this week and it may be an interesting one that I think t.hakes the market higher

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Daily Market Update –  October 17, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: MRO $15 (puts)

Expirations:   BMY, CY, HPQ, MRO $14 (puts), WY

The following were ex-dividend this week:    FAST (10/21 $0.30) 

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update –  October 20, 2016 (Close)

With a lot of earnings already out early this morning that painted a mixed picture with regard to the past quarter and more importantly of the coming quarter, we still may be in a position to beat a 2 week losing streak in the market, despite that small loss today.

That would be nice, but there’s still a lot of news ahead in the coming weeks as we get ready for the earnings crescendo that typically comes as retailers report their earnings.

This season, we will also be paying really close attention to their Christmas season guidance, as their impression of the consumer is probably something that is always weighing heavily on the minds of the members of the FOMC.

Coincidentally, they may have a big decision on interest rates due at just about the same time and the big missing piece to the puzzle keep being the reluctant consumer.

There are some signs that may be changing, but no one has the pulse better on that sort of thing than the major retailers.

I’m now counting down the last hours for the week hoping to be able to either keep some positions alive or at least avoid the transaction costs of a rollover and have those positions close enough on Monday’s opening to be able to do something to allow them to generate some revenue, even if having to go out into 2017 to do so.

Why not, as I now have a position set to expire in March 2017.

That would have been unthinkable just a short time ago, other than for my LEAPS kind of buy and hold positions.

So far, this has been a better week than I thought that it might turn out to be and this morning’s sale of so,e calls on an uncovered position helped even more.

We’ll see what opportunities may come from the mixed messages that may continue to come tomorrow.and after.

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Daily Market Update –  October 20, 2016 (7:30 AM)

With a lot of earnings already out this morning that paint a mixed picture with regard to the past quarter and more importantly of the coming quarter, we still may be in a position to beat a 2 week losing streak in the market.

That would be nice, but there’s still a lot of news ahead in the coming weeks as we get ready for the earnings crescendo that typically comes as retailers report their earnings.

This season, we will also be paying really close attention to their Christmas season guidance, as their impression of the consumer is probably something that is always weighing heavily on the minds of the members of the FOMC.

Coincidentally, they may have a big decision on interest rates due at just about the same time and the big missing piece to the puzzle keep being the reluctant consumer.

There are some signs that may be changing, but no one has the pulse better on that sort of thing than the major retailers.

I’m now counting down the last hours for the week hoping to be able to either keep some positions alive or at least avoid the transaction costs of a rollover and have those positions close enough on Monday’s opening to be able to do something to allow them to generate some revenue, even if having to go out into 2017 to do so.

Why not, as I now have a position set to expire in March 2017.

That would have been unthinkable just a short time ago, other than for my LEAPS kind of buy and hold positions.

So far, this has been a better week than I thought that it might turn out to be and this morning may help it along a bit.

We’ll see what opportunities may come from the mixed messages that may come today and tomorrow.

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Daily Market Update –  October 19, 2016 (Close)

The financial sector is now done with earnings, at least as far as the major players go.

For them even without a rising interest rate environment as had been expected, things are going well.

That doesn’t always translate into things going equally well, or even well, for the rest of the economy.

So far, although it’s very early in the reporting process, the same kind of performance isn’t being seen more widely.

While it’s nice that the big banks are doing well and it’s nice that a streaming entertainment service is doing well, those aren’t what’s really important.

There have already been some significant losers and some winners in these early days, but the optimistic guidance outlook that so many thought might be coming with this quarter’s announcements, haven’t come yet.

There’s still time, but for now, I think that I’m shifting back to observer mode.

With a new position this week, a rollover and the sale of calls on an existing position, I may be ready to call it a week, except for the fact that there are a number of positions in line for expiration and I would rather see them in line for assignment or rollover.

I don’t give up hope of either of those two latter outcomes, but we will need a couple of strong days to finish this week to see those happen.

This morning didn’t look as if it was going to be one of those strong days higher, so my eyes were focused on the final 2 days of the week.

I would have gladly taken any of the opportunities that came along today, though and kick off early for the week, but that’s not going to happen.

.

Daily Market Update –  October 19, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The financial sector is now done with earnings, at least as far as the major players go.

For them even without a rising interest rate environment as had been expected, things are going well.

That doesn’t always translate into things going equally well, or even well, for the rest of the economy.

So far, although it’s very early in the reporting process, the same kind of performance isn’t being seen more widely.

While it’s nice that the big banks are doing well and it’s nice that a streaming entertainment service is doing well, those aren’t what’s really important.

There have already been some significant losers and some winners in these early days, but the optimistic guidance outlook that so many thought might be coming with this quarter’s announcements, haven’t come yet.

There’s still time, but for now, I think that I’m shifting back to observer mode.

With a new position this week, a rollover and the sale of calls on an existing position, I may be ready to call it a week, except for the fact that there are a number of positions in line for expiration and I would rather see them in line for assignment or rollover.

I don’t give up hope of either of those two latter outcomes, but we will need a couple of strong days to finish this week to see those happen.

This morning doesn’t look as if it is going to be one of those strong days higher, so my eyes are focused on the final 2 days of the week.

I would gladly take any of the opportunities that came along today, though and kick off early for the week, but that’s not going to happen.

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