Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – April 11, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Last week was a confusing one, with maybe the only real impetus for optimism coming from some of the comforting words from Janet Yellen, even as she seemed to sometimes speak from both sides of the podium.

Earlier in the week and consistent with the previous week, she was dovish. The sense was that interest rates wouldn’t be coming anytime too soon.

That made investors, who seem not to actually care about the health of the economy happy.

But on Thursday evening, when in the company of Volcker, Greenspan and Bernanke, she seemed to be indicating that those rate increases were a sure thing.

Most everyone knows that, but it’s a question of when.

I guess despite her Thursday evening position, it didn’t seem really right around the corner.

This week starts the beginning of another earnings season and no one is expecting much.

The real fun starts Wednesday morning as JP Morgan Chase reports and much of the financial sector reports in the following days.

The previous quarter’s guidance by banks was weak, so maybe no one is expecting to be disappointed, but any further disappointment or any further downbeat guidance isn’t going to weigh well on the rest of the stock market.

I don’t mind spending money this week after not having opened any new positions over the past two weeks, but I’m looking more at retail.

Retail doesn’t report for a month or so, with some exceptions.

Much of that sector got hit to end the week and has been week for a bit longer than that, perhaps offering an entry.

With the April 2016 option cycle coming to an end this month, I only have a single position to roll over and no ex-dividend positions this week, so I am on the lookout for some income opportunities.

But as with the last couple of weeks, I think I may continue to be cautious.

This morning has the futures pointing higher, but maybe in need of a reason.

I may need more than that to loosen up some purse strings.

Daily Market Update – April 8, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:   none

Rollovers:   none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:  CSCO (4/4 $0.26), GPS (4/4 $0.23), WFM (4/6 $0.13)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  none

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – April 7, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday we were back to the usual.

It was oil holding front court again and this time it was 5% higher.

The market followed nicely, although maybe not as enthusiastically as it had in the previous 7 weeks.

The gain yesterday, while nice, also seemed subdued when you consider the lack of any really strong hawkish tones coming out of the release of the previous month’s FOMC minutes.

All in all, it wasn’t that impressive of a gain yesterday and gave no reason for anyone to think that it might be the start of a next leg higher.

This morning’s futures were setting up to erase most of yesterday’s gains, even as oil was beginning the morning unchanged.

So that catalyst for a move wasn’t in the equation yet for today and futures traders didn’t seem to see anything substantive this week to get terribly excited about.

That definitely sums it up for me.

That also summed it up for the market today, as oil did turn lower and stocks did give up the previous day’s gains and more.

At least there was an opportunity to rollover the one expiring position. At this point, I think that i would rather be a serial rollover trader than being faced with assignment.

That way, even stock mediocrity can end up with great returns and without the added challenge of then having to find replacement sources of income.

At this point, I would have been happy to see this week come to an end and perhaps just get us a little bit closer to another earnings season.

After today, next week and the beginning of earnings season can’t come soon enough.

At some point, whatever the economy is doing, it has to be reflected in earnings and revenues.

If their is some real growth going on out of everyone’s view, as the FOMC seemed to be inferring when it raised rates in 2015 and laid out an expectation for a series of small increases in 2016, maybe first word will come from banks, retailers and others that are central to the consumer economy.

But for now, there are just no signs to suggest that to be the case.

I hope that is actually the case and maybe the market will focus on fundamentals and guidance, which has been long overdue.

With just a day remaining, there’s now even less chance of me opening a new position this week. With that rollover already having been accomplished, i have no great aspirations for tomorrow, but definitely wouldn’t say no to a day that erases today’s poor performance.

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Daily Market Update – April 7, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday we were back to the usual.

It was oil holding front court again and this time it was 5% higher.

The market followed nicely, although maybe not as enthusiastically as it had in the previous 7 weeks.

The gain yesterday, while nice, also seemed subdued when you consider the lack of any really strong hawkish tones coming out of the release of the previous month’s FOMC minutes.

All in all, it wasn’t that impressive of a gain yesterday and gave no reason for anyone to think that it might be the start of a next leg higher.

This morning’s futures are setting up to erase most of yesterday’s gains, even as oil is beginning the morning unchanged.

So that catalyst for a move isn’t in the equation yet for today, but futures traders may see nothing substantive this week to get terribly excited about.

That definitely sums it up for me.

At this point, I would be happy to see this week come to an end and perhaps just get us a little bit closer to another earnings season.

At some point, whatever the economy is doing, it has to be reflected in earnings and revenues.

If their is some real growth going on out of everyone’s view, as the FOMC seemed to be inferring when it raised rates in 2015 and laid out an expectation for a series of small increases in 2016, maybe first word will come from banks, retailers and others that are central to the consumer economy.

But for now, there are just no signs to suggest that to be the case.

I hope that is actually the case and maybe the market will focus on fundamentals and guidance, which has been long overdue.

With just 2 days remaining, there’s not much chance of me opening a new position this week, but I hope that yesterday’s strength in oil doesn’t get wasted, as I’d like to see an assignment or rollover of the solitary position for the week.

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Daily Market Update – April 6, 2016 (Close)

Monday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

Yesterday was some more confirmation of that and today there may be even more.

That’s because there are 2 Federal Reserve Governors speaking today, one of whom we haven’t heard from very much, but there is some speculation that she’s more hawkish than she is dovish.

But maybe more importantly, sandwiched between those two speeches, will be the release of the recent FOMC minutes.

In that release there may have been some possibility of a glimpse as to just how much dissension there may be on the FOMC and could cast Yellen’s dovishness last week into a different light.

Even as prices started looking more attractive yesterday, I still could find no compelling reason to part with any money.

I had a little bit of uneasiness on Monday and even with futures up slightly this morning, there wasn’t very much reason to think that there’s anything right around the corner to let stocks recapture their performance of the final 6 weeks of the first quarter of 2016.

Instead, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe that we’re now at the beginning of a new pattern of ups and downs.

Rather than the 5% moves every 3 months or so for 2012 through most of 2015, we may be back to seeing more regular 10% moves.

If the final quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 are any indication, there should be lots more of those large moves that had been unseen for years.

I didn’t expect to be doing very much today, although with a single position up for expiration, I did consider rolling it over if it gets to a reasonable spread to make it worthwhile.

As the market eventually found some footing with oil up 5% and the FOMC minutes not divulging any great hawkish sentiment, I just watched. Sometimes it’s alright just to go for the ride.

Ultimately, I’m even ready to write next week off and am more excited about what may come down the path the following week as earnings season begins again.

It will be very interesting to see how the financials lead off the new earnings season and their guidance, particularly as interest rates head exactly in the opposite direction of where just about everyone had predicted.

It’s so hard to imagine that those rates could possibly stay this low, but then again, no one thought that oil would go as low as it did and stay there for as long as it has.

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Daily Market Update – April 6, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Monday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

Yesterday was some more confirmation of that and today there may be even more.

That’s because there are 2 Federal Reserve Governors speaking today, one of whom we haven’t heard from very much, but there is some speculation that she’s more hawkish than she is dovish.

But maybe more importantly, sandwiched between those two speeches, will be the release of the recent FOMC minutes.

In that release may be some glimpse as to just how much dissension there may be on the FOMC and could cast Yellen’s dovishness last week into a different light.

Even as prices started looking more attractive yesterday, I still could find no compelling reason to part with any money.

I had a little bit of uneasiness on Monday and even with futures up slightly this morning, there isn’t very much reason to think that there’s anything right around the corner to let stocks recapture their performance of the final 6 weeks of the first quarter of 2016.

Instead, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe that we’re now at the beginning of a new pattern of ups and downs.

Rather than the 5% moves every 3 months or so for 2012 through most of 2015, we may be back to seeing more regular 10% moves.

If the final quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 are any indication, there should be lots more of those large moves that had been unseen for years.

I don’t expect to be doing very much today, although with a single position up for expiration, I may consider rolling it over if it gets to a reasonable spread to make it worthwhile.

Ultimately, I’m even ready to write next week off and am more excited about what may come down the path the following week as earnings season begins again.

It will be very interesting to see how the financials lead off the new earnings season and their guidance, particularly as interest rates head exactly in the opposite direction of where just about everyone had predicted.

It’s so hard to imagine that those rates could possibly stay this low, but then again, no one thought that oil would go as low as it did and stay there for as long as it has.

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Daily Market Update – April 5, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

This week started off with a voting member of the FOMC coming off as being much more hawkish than Janet Yellen was last week.

The market didn’t like that, but it wasn’t fully revulsed.

Even falling oil didn’t grease the slide downward too much.

All in all, it was a fairly mild kind of loss.

This morning, however, that loss in the futures trading was more pronounced, maybe even more than it should be relative to oil’s early decline in its trading.

This week there isn’t very much of substance to warrant moving the markets, so it may end up being a battle of words, going from hawk to dove and maybe back again.

The market has had a history over the past few years of latching onto those words coming from various members of the Federal Reserve as if each one had the ultimate say on policy and future action.

Just as quickly as one Federal Reserve Governor would express and opinion and the market would follow suit, you could easily see an opposing opinion the very next day and the market again following suit.

So we’ll see what this week brings as only the earnings season, which begins in 2 weeks, may actually bring something of note into the equation.

I watched yesterday and as opposed to many days when I actually do float trades out there, I had none placed yesterday and I ended up placing none today, either.

I had an uneasy feeling during most of yesrerday expecting a further drop, even as some prices for positions in focus this week were beginning to look better and better.

But they still weren’t looking good enough.

This morning’s futures trading made some of those look even better, so it was understandably a little bit harder to resist as this morning got started.

But it was still pretty easy to resist.

Especially when taking in the bigger picture. When you do that you do have to be aware that for the previous 6 weeks many stocks marched higher, without testing support or in some cases taking much of a rest.

This may be a time to take rest or to test support and I’m not certain I want to test either, a I think going forward we are much more likely to see those 5-10% market drops that were so rare, for about the previous 4 years.

With that in mind, after today’s loss the S&P 500 is now up 0.07% on the year

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Daily Market Update – April 5, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

This week started off with a voting member of the FOMC coming off as being much more hawkish than Janet Yellen was last week.

The market didn’t like that, but it wasn’t fully revulsed.

Even falling oil didn’t grease the slide downward too much.

All in all, it was a fairly mild kind of loss.

This morning, however, that loss in the futures trading is more pronounced, maybe even more than it should be relative to oil’s early decline in its trading.

This week there isn’t very much of substance to warrant moving the markets, so it may end up being a battle of words, going from hawk to dove and maybe back again.

The market has had a history over the past few years of latching onto those words coming from various members of the Federal Reserve as if each one had the ultimate say on policy and future action.

Just as quickly as one Federal Reserve Governor would express and opinion and the market would follow suit, you could easily see an opposing opinion the very next day and the market again following suit.

So we’ll see what this week brings as only the earnings season, which begins in 2 weeks, may actually bring something of note into the equation.

I watched yesterday and as opposed to many days when I actually do float trades out there, I had none placed yesterday.

I had an uneasy feeling during most of the day expecting a further drop, even as some prices for positions in focus this week were beginning to look better and better.

But they still weren’t looking good enough.

This morning’s futures trading may make some of those look even better, so it may be a little bit harder to resist.

However, in the bigger picture, you do have to be aware that for the previous 6 weeks many stocks marched higher, without testing support or in some cases taking much of a rest.

This may be a time to take rest or to test support and I’m not certain I want to test either, a I think going forward we are much more likely to see those 5-10% market drops that were so rare, for about the previous 4 years.

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Daily Market Update – April 4, 2016 (Close)

This week could be an interesting one.

There’s not too much going on in terms of economic news other than Tuesday’s JOLTS release, but we may get to see just how important words really are.

This week there are lots of Federal Reserve Governors out there giving speeches and it will also be the week to get a closer glimpse at what was said, or at least what the tone of the previous FOMC Meeting may have been.

Lately there has been lots and lots of mixed messages being sent from members of the Federal Reserve and that had been confusing the stock market.

Last week, the market elected to go with Janet Yellen’s re-discovery of the words a dove might say, but this week there could be much more of the opposite kind, maybe even some coming from closet hawks, such as Loretta Mester.

The other thing that may be of interest is whether oil and stocks are finally going to break their relationship.

That would be nice, unless oil decides to start moving higher again.

As it would turn out, those thoughts this morning were more prescient than my thoughts usually turn out to be.

Eric Rosengren, the Boston Federal reserve President and a voting member of the FOMC came out with some hawkish comments, giving the impression that those rate hikes  were coming sooner than last week’s traders may have been led to believe.

On top of that, oil slid some more.

Still, stocks weren’t down very much considering what could have been.

With a few ex-dividend positions this week and a single position in range for a rollover and maybe even an assignment, despite having some income stream already for the week, I wouldn’t mind adding to it.

That was the same situation last week, but I ended up just being happy about selling some calls on uncovered positions, making that single rollover and collecting some dividends.

I would like to break out of the “no new positions opened” funk of 2016, but given the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the first quarter, it will be interesting to see how the second quarter proceeds.

We got off to a good start after the market decided that the Employment Situation Report news wasn’t as bad as initially believed, but there’s really nothing for the next two weeks to give any confidence about anything.

More dovish words might help, or maybe some softness in the economy would help, for those still equating bad with good.

What I’ll be looking for really begins in 2 weeks, as earnings season starts again.

It has been a long time since true earnings and not those artificially inflated by stock buybacks did anything to move markets forward.

At some point, there has to be some good news on both the top and bottom lines as more and more people are heading back to work, or even beginning once again to look for a job.

While I don’t mind spending money this week, I won’t be profligate, for certain and am likely to want to look at a weekly play, if only to have a better chance to recycle the money the following week.

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Daily Market Update – April 4, 2016 (7:30 AM)

This week could be an interesting one.

There’s not too much going on in terms of economic news other than Tuesday’s JOLTS release, but we may get to see just how important words really are.

This week there are lots of Federal Reserve Governors out there giving speeches and it will also be the week to get a closer glimpse at what was said, or at least what the tone of the previous FOMC Meeting may have been.

Lately there has been lots and lots of mixed messages being sent from members of the Federal Reserve and that had been confusing the stock market.

Last week, the market elected to go with Janet Yellen’s re-discovery of the words a dove might say, but this week there could be much more of the opposite kind, maybe even some coming from closet hawks, such as Loretta Mester.

The other thing that may be of interest is whether oil and stocks are finally going to break their relationship.

That would be nice, unless oil decides to start moving higher again.

With a few ex-dividend positions this week and a single position in range for a rollover and maybe even an assignment, despite having some income stream already for the week, I wouldn’t mind adding to it.

That was the same situation last week, but I ended up just being happy about selling some calls on uncovered positions, making that single rollover and collecting some dividends.

I would like to break out of the “no new positions opened” funk of 2016, but given the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the first quarter, it will be interesting to see how the second quarter proceeds.

We got off to a good start after the market decided that the Employment Situation Report news wasn’t as bad as initially believed, but there’s really nothing for the next two weeks to give any confidence about anything.

More dovish words might help, or maybe some softness in the economy would help, for those still equating bad with good.

What I’ll be looking for really begins in 2 weeks, as earnings season starts again.

It has been a long time since true earnings and not those artificially inflated by stock buybacks did anything to move markets forward.

At some point, there has to be some good news on both the top and bottom lines as more and more people are heading back to work, or even beginning once again to look for a job.

While I don’t mind spending money this week, I won’t be profligate, for certain and am likely to want to look at a weekly play, if only to have a better chance to recycle the money the following week.

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MONDAY:   This week we’ll see how long Yellen’s dovishness carries the market and whether oil will let go of its grip on the market, as it’s an otherwise quiet week except for the release of FOMC Minutes and lots of Federal Reserve Governors voicing their opinions

TUESDAY:  Some hawkish words from an FOMC voting member and declining oil prices may be starting to offset last week’s optimism. The futures are continuing and accelerating that trend this morning. There are more Federal Reserve members to speak this week, so it could bounce back and forth from their mouths to our bottom lines.

WEDNESDAY: Oil and stocks went their own way yesterday, but both higher as the morning is setting up. Otherwise, there’s no real news to take either of those markets in one way or another.

THURSDAY:  What yesterday’s surge in oil gave to the markets, this morning’s futures are taking away. There’s no real reason behind the morning’s early move, but that has been the story for all of 2016, especially once oil is taken out of the picture

FRIDAY:.  Yesterday oil gave back half of their previous day’s gains and stocks gave all of theirs, and more, back. This morning, both are pointing higher to end the week.







Daily Market Update – April 1, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM tonight and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:   none

Rollovers:   M

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this past week:  CY (3/29 $0.11), DOW (3/39 $0.46), EMC (3/30 $0.12)

The following are ex-dividend next week:   CSCO (4/4 $0.26),  GPS (4/4 $0.23), WFM (4/6 $0.13)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – March 31, 2016 (Close)

The past 2 days of mild rallies could only have been attributed to the unexpectedly dovish tone from Janet Yellen.

Once always the messenger of dovish outlooks, she had become less so as the expectation was increasingly for some very minor tightening with a barely noticeable increase in interest rates.

There’s been no doubt that traders haven’t liked the idea of even a 0.25% increase even if it meant that remaining so low was a reflection of a moribund economy.

The past couple of days were a reflection of still embracing an economy hobbling along, rather than rejoicing in one that is growing.

Obviously, anyone old enough would be concerned about unbridled growth and inflation, but it’s still so hard to understand the fears associated with even a series of increases, if they were indeed as small as everyone suspects they would be.

This morning’s futures were flat ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report and stayed that way all through the session, as we may find out whether Yellen’s dovish tone is the one that will hold the day or whether some of the more hawkish Federal Reserve Governors are the ones who have it all pegged properly.

With only a single position set for expiration this week and time running out on the week, I didn’t expect to do much today, so I wasn’t disappointed. At least today still left me in a position tomorrow to either see an assignment or get to make a rollover.

It’s wasn’t too likely that in the day ahead of the Employment Situation report that too many would really stick their necks out, since even among those who should know the best, there’s lots of disagreement over the speed and intensity at which our economy is progressing.

It’s probably not a great idea to take sides when the really smart people can’t be in agreement, but it also may not be a good idea to take sides tomorrow in the event that emotions take hold.

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Daily Market Update – March 31, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The past 2 days of mild rallies could only have been attributed to the unexpectedly dovish tone from Janet Yellen.

Once always the messenger of dovish outlooks, she had become less so as thge expectation was increasingly for some very minor tightening with a barely noticeable increase in interest rates.

There’s been no doubt that traders haven’t liked the idea of even a 0.25% increase even if it meant that remaining so low was a reflection of a moribund economy.

The past couple of days were a reflection of still embracing an economy hobbling along, rather than rejoicing in one that is growing.

Obviously, anyone old enough would be concerned about unbridled growth and inflation, but it’s still so hard to understand the fears associated with even a series of increases, if they were indeed as small as everyone suspects they would be.

This morning’s futures are flat ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report, as we may find out whether Yellen’s dovish tone is the one that will hold the day or whether some of the more hawkish Federal Reserve Governors are the ones who have it all pegged properly.

With only a single position set for expiration this week and time running out on the week, I don’t expect to do much today, but will hopefully be in a position tomorrow to either see an assignment or get to make a rollover.

It’s not too likely that in the day ahead of the Employment Situation report that too many will really stick their necks out, since even among those who should know the best, there’s lots of disagreement over the speed and intensity at which our economy is progressing.

It’s probably not a great idea to take sides when the really smart people can’t be in agreement.

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Daily Market Update – March 30, 2016 (Close)

Did anyone really expect Janet Yellen to be so dovish yesterday?

Based upon the reaction of markets all around the world, the answer to that question has to be that her tone was really unexpected.

Why investors would really totally disregard a longer term view of that dovishness is curious.

Basically, what Yellen had said was that the US economy, and perhaps at this point, more importantly, world economies weren’t chugging along strongly enough to really warrant what the FOMC has been hoping to do for quite some time.

That can’t really be the kind of news that can sustain a market’s move higher.

But maybe everything really is all relative. Maybe we’re still the best house in a worsening global neighborhood.

But still, not only is the strength that we have all been expecting to see just not materializing, it is also pointing out just how flawed either the FOMC’s crystal ball is or just how they’ve been getting ready to implement the wrong strategy.

Obviously, those two are related, but it would make a reasonable person question just how special the FOMC is when it comes to forecasting and setting monetary policy.

The same monkey who can pick stocks better than 90% of all professionals could probably just as well serve on the FOMC.

This morning’s futures are again pointing higher after yesterday’s rally and for the second day in a row, it is beginning to appear as if stocks and oil may go off in their own directions.

Again, as long as that direction takes stocks higher and oil goes lower, I’m all for that.

With this morning’s early rally I would be fine with just being able to see either a rollover or assignment of this week’s lone expiring position, but i think that i would rather get a chance to roll it over and keep collecting the premium.

I still have my eye on some of those positions that are ex-dividend on the Monday of next week, but it is again looking like a very quiet week for trading.

As long as asset value goes higher, especially if keeping up or exceeding the market, while continuing to collect some dividends, I’m OK with that, but would still prefer to do some more active trading.

The passivity is annoying, but again, it really should be the bottom line that’s the ultimate measure and not the ability to feed my beast and make trade after trade.

Although, in a perfect world….you can have it all.

At least there was some chance to sell some calls today, but it meant using as long a term contract as I have sold in a long, long time.

Still, income is income, especially if there’s no reason to believe that there won’t be more ups and downs along the way. This way, at least there’s something to make it a little more worthwhile.

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