Week in Review – August 25 – 29, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
August 25 – 29,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
3 / 5 5 2 3  / 2 0  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 25 – 29, 2014

New purchases for the week surpassed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.0% and the adjusted index by 1.5% during a week that the market was again faced with no news and elected to ignore other potential news, as setting new closing rtecords on three of its trading days.



New positions opened this week went 1.8% higher, while the overall market was 0.8% higher on unadjusted basis and 0.3% higher on an adjusted basis, as it was largely unchanged for the final three days of the week.

This week existing positions returned to outperforming the broader market, as those positions rose by 1.3% in absolute terms and 0.5% in relative terms.

Performance of closed positions continued to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.7%. They were up 3.6% out-performing the market by 89.0%. 

Another week of no real news and more new records to show for it, as the market actually seemed to be ignoring what was going on in the world.

Realizing that news could have detrimental impact, based on previous incidents around the world, ignoring what is going on seems like a great idea and may have application to all phases of life.

Barely a month ago we were all worried about how large the imminent correction would be and were wailing about the spike in volatility, but as has been the case time and time again over the past few years the slightest weakness became a signal to jump in.

All in all, this was a good week, despite not having made too many trades.

As is sometimes the case, it can be a question of having either the right or the wrong stocks at any given period of time, but in the longer term those sort of things should equilibrate. This week it was just a fortunate combination of events that helped to outpace the market.

This week the existing collection of stocks out-performed the market, but received some help from a number of ex-dividend positions and some additional income flowing in from option premiums.

Weeks such as this one, that aren’t overly strong in the broader market are the ideal ones if covered positions can be created.

Fortunately, this week, while not overly abundant in trades did appear to have enough of them in the various categories to be able to put together a nice performance.

The one thing missing was an adequate number of rollovers.

While no positions expired there were relatively few positions to be rolled over and even fewer next week as just a single existing position is set to expire next week.

With a good number of assignments this week and cash returned from the expiration of puts sold there is money available for new positions to be created next week and there certainly is a need to create some new positions to populate the weekly expiration list.

However, the premiums, just as they were this week, are at very low levels that will be even lower next week, as there are only 4 trading days of time premium.

That situation creates some challenge in finding positions that can offer a total return of income that seems to be commensurate with the risk. This past week that was mitigated by also looking for dividends, but there aren’t quite as many attractive plays next week.

While I always think about risk I also am less inclined to add too much until its clear that the immediate geo-political risk isn’t going to create havoc on asset value. That also means looking preferentially for positions that may not care too much about what is happening in someone else’s backyard.

As trading opens on Tuesday, as much as I would like to get some weekly expiring positions there may be reason to look for opportunities to bypass the September 5th expiration and go straight to the September 12, although the extra week won’t offer too much additional advantage in the premium, as long as volatility remains at this low level. Further, with a fair number of positions already set to expire at the end of the September monthly cycle I really don’t want to add too many to that list and be put at undue risk by having so many vulnerable on a single day.

So with markets at new highs the challenge continues to be finding some that haven’t shared in the same glory, while not having any fundamental flaws to have deserved their fate.

In the meantime, I hope everyone has a happy and health Labor Day holiday and gets to enjoy an additional day of rest and relaxation.

 

 

 













 

 

 





 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   HAL,K, SBGI

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  HAL (9/12)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycleCHK

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  BX, C, PBR, PBR, PBR

Put contracts expiredANF, BBY

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  C, TMUS, WFM

Calls Expired:   none 

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend PositionsHFC (8/25 $0.50 Special dividend), HFC (8/28 $0.32), K (8/28 $0.49), LO (8/27 $0.62), SBGI (8/26 $0.16)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  COH (9/5 $0.34), MOS (9/2 $0.25)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, CHK, CLF, COH, FCX, IP, JCP, LULU, LVS, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR , PFE, RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Weekend Update – August 24, 2014

For two consecutive summers back in 1981 and 1982 I found myself in Jackson Hole.

Although both times were in August, I don’t recall having run across any Federal Reserve types at the time. However, if they were there, they certainly weren’t staying in the same campground, but I’m guessing that their table was set much the same as mine, when big decisions in an era of 15% Fed Funds rates and the burgeoning money supply were being made.

Or maybe they were simply unwinding after a long day of exchanging white papers.

And not the type that are rolled, as good old fashioned Jackson Hole cowboys were reported to do. Too much exchanging of those rolled papers could definitely lead you into some kind of complacency. I know that I really didn’t care too much about what was going to happen next and was content to just let it all keep happening without my input.

This past week was one when neither decisions nor inputs were really required from investors as the market had its best week in about four months. With the exception of a totally inconsequential FOMC statement release, there was absolutely no economic news, or really no news of any kind at all. In fact, awaiting the scheduled remarks from Mario Draghi was elevated to the status of “breaking news” as most people were tiring of seeing celebrities getting doused with a bucket of ice, under the guise of being news.

In an environment like that how could you not exercise complacency? Going along for the ride has been a good strategy, just ask most hedge fund managers. While they, and I, were elated with the sudden spike in volatility just two weeks ago, talk of a 30% surge in volatility have been replaced by silence and sulking for them and justifiable complacency for most other investors.

Even though it was another in a series of Fridays with potentially unsettling news coming from Ukraine, this time regarding violation of their border by a Russian convoy, the market completely ignored the news, as it did the encounter of a US military jet with a Chinese fighter plane at a distance reported to be 20 feet.

That seemed odd.

Instead, all eyes were focused on the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual soiree in Jackson Hole, awaiting the keynote speech by Janet Yellen and then some words from her European counterpart, Mario Draghi.

For her part, Janet Yellen’s prepared remarks had no impact on markets, which were largely unchanged for the day.

The speculation that the real market propelling catalyst would come from Draghi, who was said to be ready to announce a large round of European quantitative easing turned out to be unfounded and so the week ended on a whimper, with many traders exercising their complacency by having embarked on an early start to the last of summer’s weekends.

While not going out in a blaze of glory markets again thrived on the lack of any news. In that kind of environment you can easily get used to the good times. With many believing that the Federal Reserve’s policies were responsible for those good times and having a “dove” at its helm, even with telegraphed interest rate hikes and an end to quantitative easing, auto-pilot seems so right.

Until it doesn’t.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

This week I’m drawn to summer under-performers and there appear to be quite a few among companies that can have a place even in very traditional portfolios.

^SPX ChartIn a world that increasingly seems dominated by technology and bio-technology, my initial thoughts this week are focused on heavy metal, although that may be a consequence of some neuron debilitating nights in Jackson Hole.

Deere (DE) announced further layoffs this past week and has been mired at $85 level. Despite record crop yields Deere has gone fallow of late. While I may still like to see it trading a little lower, it is definitely in the range that I like to own shares, not having done so since August 2013, despite it being a portfolio mainstay, at one point. While its premiums are somewhat depressed along with most everything else, at the moment stocks that have under-performed the S&P 500 for the summer have some enhanced appeal at the market’s current dizzying heights.

Although the question “how much further could it possibly fall?” is not one whose answer most people would want to hear, I like considering high quality companies that have under-performed, as the market adds to its own risk for reversal.

Also in the heavy metal business, General Motors (GM) has been subject to more scrutiny than most companies could ever withstand and I think its CEO, Mary Barra, has reacted and performed admirably, trying to get ahead of the news. In that process General Motors has also found itself mired, but trading in a fairly predictable range, having a nice option premium and an upcoming dividend offer reasons for consideration. However, in order to capture the dividend I may consider the use of a monthly contract, although expanded weekly options are available. With a Monday ex-dividend date, one can even consider the sale of a September 12, 2014 contract and trade off an extra week of option premium for the dividend, if assigned early.

International Paper (IP) may not be the stuff of heavy metal, but there is a chance that some of those white papers controlling our economic and banking policies were presented on their products. It’s also possible that some of those erstwhile cowboys passed an International Paper product along to their friends around the campfire, years ago.

At its current trading level, International Paper has my attention, although I do already own some more expensive and uncovered shares. Management has sequentially created value for investors through strategic spin-offs, which may continue and a healthy dividend. It, too, has under-performed the S&P 500 of late and should have limited geo-political risk, although it does have manufacturing facilities in Russia and “International” in its name.

It’s not too often that I think about adding shares of a Dow component or a really staid “blue chip.” However, despite some low option premiums that usually accompany such names, this week it just feels right, perhaps as somewhat of an antidote to geo-political risk.

Both McDonalds (MCD) and Kellogg (K) also happen to be ex-dividend this week and are generous in their distributions. Both have also taken their lumps recently, badly trailing the already mediocre S&P 500 through the first two months of summer.

While McDonalds isn’t entirely immune to geo-political risk, witness the sudden closure of its flagship Russian restaurant and others throughout the country, following the pattern initially seen in Crimea months ago, the risk seems to be limited, as the real issues are with declining American tastes for its products.

Kellogg quietly manufactures its products in 18 countries and markets them nearly everywhere in the world, yet it’s not too likely that anyone or any government will make Kellogg the scapegoat for its geo-political shenanigans. Although I’ve never purchased shares, it’s a company that I consistently look at in order to capture its dividend, but have always gone elsewhere to be requited.

This time may be different, though. The combination of under-performance, option premium and dividend, coupled with a little bit of a time buffer through the use of a monthly option contract provides some comfort at a time when the world may be a tinderbox.

Halliburton (HAL) also goes ex-dividend this week, but its puny dividend isn’t the sort of thing that beckons anyone to begin a chase. However, shares have recently been under attack. Although only mildly trailing the S&P 500 for the summer its decline in the past month has been 8%. That’s enough to get my attention in return for receiving an option premium and perhaps a dividend payment, as well.

Pfizer (PFE) is somewhat of a mystery to me. It is thought to have a relatively shallow pipeline of new drugs, has been rebuffed in its attempt to swallow up some competition and perhaps gain a tax inversion opportunity. The mystery, though, is why shares had fallen as they have done over the summer. Whatever disappointment existed due to the failed buyout was in excess of any premium that the market attached to that buyout and the favorable tax situation.

As with International Paper, I already own uncovered shares, but am willing to now add shares as it has shown the ability to bounce back from its recent lows. While its premium isn’t necessarily the most provocative, in the past it has been the ability to repeatedly rollover shares that has been the real reward.

You can add Blackstone (BX) to the list of uncovered positions that I hold, with the most recent contract expiring this past Friday. Undoubtedly, Blackstone’s prospects are tied to a healthy stock market and an overall healthy economy, as its varied business interests and investments are the real product and they live and die through the whims of both masters.

That’s the kind of risk that’s represented in its high beta and reflected in its option premiums. However, in this period of extraordinarily low volatility, even Blackstone is having a hard time generating premiums of old. Still, its recent decline, in the absence of any real news and during a market rise makes me believe that despite the warning signs, it may offer some safety, particularly if there is further strength in the financial sector, as in the past week.

I had been hoping to have my shares of Best Buy (BBY) assigned this past week, in order to have a free and clear mind when considering the upcoming earnings report this week. That wish was granted and its again time to consider a trade in shares.

Best Buy frequently offers a good earnings related trade due to its enhanced premiums, that in turn are due to its propensity for explosive earnings related moves. While the option market is currently assigning an implied move of 8% next week, an ROI of 1% can currently be achieved by selling puts at a strike level 8.7% below Friday’s closing price.

I generally like to see a larger gap between the implied volatility and the strike price returning the threshold premium before considering the sale of puts in advance of earnings. In this case, I may be more inclined to wait after earnings and willing to pile on if shares disappoint. However, with an ex-dividend date just two weeks later, rather than selling puts in the aftermath of a large share drop I might consider the purchase of shares and sale of call options.

Finally, what a roller coaster Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) has found itself riding. After garnering the honor being named the “Worst CEO of 2013” shares have made an impressive turnaround.

I have no clue how suddenly its products could have become “cool” again, or why teens may now be flocking to its stores or what aggressive strategic changes CEO Jeffries may have implemented, but the sudden favor it has found among investors is undeniable, as shares have left the S&P 500 behind in the dust over the past month.

For me, that kind of share acceleration is a perfect message to consider the sale of puts as earnings are to be released.

The option market is implying a price move of 8.6%, however, a 1% ROI may be achieved at a strike level 13.8% below Friday’s close. That’s the kind of gap that I like seeing. However, as with Best Buy, there is the matter of an ex-dividend date, which happens to be on the same date as earnings are released.

If wanting to take part in this trade, that essentially leaves three different scenarios, including the commonly executed sale of puts before or after earnings. In the case of doing so before earnings the sale of puts in the face of an impending ex-dividend date frequently works to the disadvantage of the seller, much in the same way as selling calls into an ex-dividend date serves as a seller’s advantage.

That disadvantage is eliminated in selling puts after earnings, in the event of the share’s decline. However, another possibility, and one that would very likely include retention of the dividend, is the sale of deep in the money calls, particularly if using a monthly expiration. Additionally, if shares move higher after earnings, once the added volatility is removed the deeper in the money position may likely be closed at a small net price following concurrent share sales, allowing funds to be re-deployed.

Take that, complacency.

Traditional Stocks: Blackstone, Deere, General Motors, International Paper, Pfizer

Momentum:

Double Dip Dividend: Halliburton (8/29), Kellog (8/28), McDonalds (8/28)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Abercrombie and Fitch (8/28 AM), Best Buy (8/26 AM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts, in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.

Week in Review – August 18 -22, 2014

August 18 – 22, 2014 

Option to Profit Week in Review
August 18 – 22,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
3 / 3 5 0 0  / 0 2  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 18 – 22, 2014

New purchases for the week trailed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 0.1%, but beat the adjusted index by 0.2% during a week that the market had its best performance in about 4 months.

New positions opened this week went 1.6%% higher, however the overall market was 1.7% higher on unadjusted basis and 1.4% higher on an adjusted basis.

Performance of closed positions continued to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.8%. They were up 3.7% out-performing the market by 93.2%. 

With really almost nothing having happened this week it turned out to be the 3rd best performing week of the year and the best in the past 4 months.

That’s generally not good news when you’re hedging your bets and most hedge funds are again looking at how to play significant catch up with the indexes, just as it had to do in 2013, although the overall climb this year has been much more subdued.

Last week was definitely one of those “left behind” kind of weeks that don’t happen very often. Given, however, how strongly the market climbed this week I was expecting to once again be left in the dust, but happily it didn’t work out that way.

What did happen was a fair number of assignments, which isn’t unusual when the market has a sharp climb higher. Fortunately, the week also saw the opportunity to develop cover on a number of positions, as well as being able to execute some rollover trades.

It was also nice to grab some more dividends, with even more expected next week.

Among those going ex-dividend next week is Holly Frontier.

It goes ex-dividend for its special dividend of $0.50 on Monday. Although shares closed at $51.26, there’s not much reason to expect that the September 20, 2014 $51 calls will be assigned early.

Those contracts will be adjusted down to $50.50 on Monday as the opening share price will be adjusted to $50.76 and then shares go ex-dividend for their regular quarterly dividend of $0.32 on August 28, 2014.

Complicated? Maybe, but if shares are above $50.50 on Wednesday at the close, because we’re dealing with a September 20 contract the chances of early assignment are reduced.

When putting it all together, the rejuvenation of cash, the option premiums and the dividends that will get deposited into the account, it was a bit of good fortune to be able to keep up with the broad market that would have been well appreciated last week, but at least this week wasn’t a duplicate.

As Friday’s trading session neared its close some of you may have noticed that I did something that I haven’t done in over a year, but may begin to do with more frequency if everything is aligned just right.

What I used to do on a fairly regular basis was to rollover contracts even if they were in the money and unlikely to expire. I did that rather than accepting assignment.

This week, with Whole Foods, came that opportunity.

The reason for rolling those shares over was related to having a fair number of positions already destined for assignment and not having very many positions scheduled for contract expiration next week.

Additionally, in this instance I wanted to grab the additional 0.8% net premium, rather than having to find another stock on Monday to take its place.

In a small way that decreases the need to find at least one replacement position at a time when there is so much uncertainty still in the air and the market is again at or right near new highs.

Given the continuing low volatility that means I’ll have greater leeway in selecting expirations for any new positions opened next week. Since the best premiums are still with the shorter term contracts and those premiums seemingly drop off of a cliff as going out much further, there won’t be the worry of being too heavily reliant on the outcomes of a single week.

Whenever there are too many positions set to expire on a single day I get a little nervous, because it doesn’t take too much to upset the apple cart and ruin some well laid plans.

Next week it’s almost like getting off to a fresh start, but with lots of money to do so and no real compelling requirement to spend, other than the desire to generate some income.

Fortunately, some of the positions going ex-dividend next week will relieve some of the need to look for other income streams and there may be some good reason to look at some very staid companies also going ex-dividend next week in order to supplement the existing dividends with some more and even some option premiums, to boot.

But that’s next week and that’s still so far away.

 

    

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   CCL, WAG, WFM

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycleWFM

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  WAG (9/12)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  EBAY, FAST, GM, HFC, HFC

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  BBY, DD, DG, DOW, EBAY, MET

Calls Expired:   BX, LVS 

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend PositionsCCL (8/20 $0.25), RIG (8/20 $0.75). TGT (8/18 $0.52), WAG (8/19 $0.34)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  HFC (8/25 $0.50 Special dividend), HFC (8/28 $0.32), LO (8/27 $0.62), SBGI (8/26 $0.16)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, BX, C, CHK, CLF, COH, FCX, IP, JCP, LULU, LVS, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR , PFE, RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Week in Review – August 11 – 15, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
August 11 – 15,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
5 / 5 1 6 3  / 0 5  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 11 – 15, 2014

New purchases for the week trailed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 0.4% and the adjusted index by 0.2% during a week that the market was faced with no news and fairly inconsequential earnings reports, even with poor performance from DJIA components Wal-Mart and Cisco.

Of course, the lack of news changed abruptly Friday morning.

New positions opened this week went 0.8% higher, however the overall market was 1.2% higher on unadjusted basis and 1.0% higher on an adjusted basis.

After a few weeks in which existing positions significantly out-performed the market for the week by really unusually large amounts, this week was pay back time, as those positions fell by 0.1% in absolute terms, but fell a larger 1.3% in relative terms.

Performance of closed positions continued to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.8%. They were up 3.9% out-performing the market by 96.6%. 

After the past few weeks of nice out-performance during a period of time that the market was either moving lower or flat, the market had its best week in the past six weeks. Or at least it was on that path until getting derailed by the news of a possible attack on Russian military vehicles inside Ukraine.

Up until that point the week was fairly abysmal, as is sometimes the case if the market moves higher by 1% as the likelihood is that a covered portfolio is going to lag the market.

As is also sometimes the case, the perversity of a covered option strategy becomes pretty obvious when you see your fortunes getting better when the market isn’t doing as well.

That was certainly the case at the depths of the day’s declines.

It was to the point that I had some disappointment as seeing recovery attempts. However, to be totally fair, it was the recovery that at least allowed some of the hoped for assignments to happen, just as the decline took some others away.

But while the decline was underway the gap between exisitng positions and the market was narrowing, so I didn’t mind that too much. They talk about corrections being “healthy,” and from my perspective the more covered positions I have the more healthy those kinds of backward steps are in the big scheme.

Even in the little scheme.

As is also the case, today was yet another good example of why nothing should be taken for granted. Although I wouldn’t, and didn’t, predict that today would have been the day for some kind of an event, the Ukraine/Russia/Crimea story has had a way of playing itself out on Fridays and that was something that I had already noted a few months ago.

Odd little coincidence, but I don’t really think that coincidence is at play.

While waiting each day for a nice pop higher, the week had very little activity, particularly the sale of new covered positions and in rollovers. Those are literally the bread and butter that help create an opportunity to beat the averages, but this week those opportunities were scant.

Fortunately some did appear today, but it was still a less than satisfying week.

Although a few assignments will help replenish cash reserves for next week, this week’s trading did absolutely nothing to inspire any confidence as looking toward next week.

Despite the comeback in the latter half of the day, that I could have done without, anyway, we are really on edge and subject to extraneous forces at the moment.

While some see opportunity in the unknown, I don’t mind the unknown that I know about. Things like earnings, same store sales, economic reports and even weather. Those are all fine. But when it comes to world events that can be manipulated and that occur at a moment’s notice, I’m not a big fan and neither is the market.

For lots of people there is lots at risk if they have been either actively or passively invested and there is a little bit of a feeling of helplessness when events take you by storm.

This Friday was an example of how quickly events can unfold, or even rumors of events.

We may find on Monday morning that the initial reports from Ukraine and not really verified by anyone may not at all have represented what occured or what may be nest to occur. But the fact that we react as we do is enough of a reason to be on the alert.

So with some cash still in hand and a decent number of positions set to expire next week, I’m not entering the week eager to add to new positions. I wouldn’t mind being a bystander, especially if the market moves higher and just watching existings hares go along for the ride.

What I would really like to see are some new covered positions established, as this week wasn’t terribly good for that and it showed in the bottom line. Some of those will represent rollovers that I elected not to make, as their cost was just too high, such as with Holly Frontier.

However, over the next few weeks there are a mumber of positions that will be going ex-dividend and while I do want to see them generate some option income I also don’t want to unduly put them at risk for early assignment because of the dividends. That includes General Motors and also Holly Frontier, so I’ll look at the possibility of using some expiration dates a week or more beyond the ex-dividend dates, as long as the volatility is there to create some attraction to the premiums.







 



 











 

 

 





 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   BBY, DD, EBAY, SBGI, MUS

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  BBY, DD, DG, DOW, MET

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  TMUS (8/29)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  C

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  CY, JPM, WFM

Calls Expired:   BMY, CHK, EBAY, FAST, HFC,

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: CLF (8/13 $0.15), DD (8/13 $0.47). IP (8/13 $0.35),

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  TGT (8/18 $0.52), RIG (8/20 $0.75)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, C, CHK, CLF, COH, EBAY, FAST, FCX, GM, HFC, IP, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR , PFE, RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Week in Review – August 4 – 8, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
August 4 – 8,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
4 / 4 3 4 4  / 0 3  / 0 1

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 4 – 8, 2014

New purchases for the week trailed both the unadjusted and adjusted S&P 500 by 0.4% during another week of market losses, that were erased with Friday’s large gain. New positions actually lost ground for the week, in sharp contrast to the portfolio of existing open positions which again performed very strongly. 

Following a week with lots of extraneous events that shaped the market’s behavior this week wasn’t very different, as there was really no economic news of interest and no market rattling earnings surprises.

New positions opened this week went 0.1% lower while the overall market was 0.3% higher on both an unadjusted and adjusted basis.

Existing positions again significantly out-performed the market for the week by a large 0.8%. That sort of out-performance is larger than you might expect from the impact of option premiums, but there were no real performance standouts for the week, as was seen the previous week when Family Dollar Stores was part of the equation.

Existing positions actually showed an overall gain of 1.1% for the week, as compared to the market gain of 0.3%. 

Performance of closed positions out-performed the S&P 500 performance by 1.8%. They were up 3.7% out-performing the market by 94.5%. 

It seems as if it has been a while since I’ve had anything good to say about the market.

On a positive note it often works out better that way and this was another week where the bottom line showed improvement and out-performed the broader market by a surprisingly large amount, despite not having any real superstar performers.

The disappointment, and you always have to look for those, was that not enough new covered positions were created and not enough positions were rolled over. The surprising strength on Friday helped to ease some of that disappointment, though, with some additional rollovers and even another new covered position created.

The week ended the way it began.

It was a week that began with some surprising promise with Monday showing a nice gain after last Thursday and Friday’s large losses.

But it was all illusory, as the market deteriorated for most of the rest of the week as the “experts” initially disagreed as to whether it was technical factors being the root cause of international events.

The market then staged an improbable rebound as it seemed to respond news that was was already known, regarding the scheduled end to Russian military exercises on the Ukraine border, as if that actually means anything.

Ultimately, though, none of that really matters.

Whether it’s technical, international uncertainty, lots of rollovers, casino weakness in Macao and all of those other things that are happening. None of it really matters, other than the bottom line.

The truth is that I do like the means and not just the ends, but ultimately no one really cares about the path or the factors.

There was so much news last week and so little expected this week, yet once again we were hostage to quite a bit of the external factors that create fear and uncertainty.

How and why Friday was able to escape from that uncertainty will be a mystery, at least to me, but a welcome mystery.

Happily, there were some assignments this week and a few rollovers and even a couple of new covered positions created.

That means that next week there is some cash available and after some of the drops of this week there really do appear to be some bargains to be had, even after a day or two of recovery.

That’s always a good combination, but as with some previous weeks I don’t think that I’ll be too excited about aggressively going into the market to add new positions, but at least there’s both the will and the way to do so.



 



 











 

 

 





 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   CY, JPM, LVS, MET

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycleJPM, WFM

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  CHK (8/29), LVS (8/22)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  BX, EBAY, DOW

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  EBAY ($52.50), EBAY ($53.50), GPS ($40), GPS ($42)

Calls Expired:   C, CHK, PFE

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  LB

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: MET (8/6 $0.25), WLT (8/7 $0.01)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  CLF (8/13 $0.15)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BX, C, CHK, CLF, COH, DOW, EBAY, FCX, GM, IP, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR , PFE, RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Week in Review – July 28 – August 1, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
July 28 – August 1,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
6 / 6 3 4 2  / 0 7  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

July 28 – August 1, 2014

New purchases for the week beat the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.4% and surpassed the adjusted index by 0.9% during the worst week in about two years.

While performing better than the market those new positions still lost ground for the week.

With lots of companies reporting earnings this week it was all overshadowed by other events that converged to do their damage.

New positions opened this week went 1.3% lower while the overall market was 2.7% lower on an unadjusted basis and 2.2% lower on an adjusted basis.

Existing positions again significantly out-performed the market for the week by a really unusually large 2.8%. If the week’s big gainer, First Family Stores 2 lots which were closed early in the week are removed from consideration, the out-performance was still a very high 1.3%.

Existing positions actually showed an overall gain of 0.2% for the week if Family Dollar Stores is included, as compared to the market loss of 2.7%. If Family Dollar Stores is removed then the existing positions fell 1.3% as compared to the market’s fall which was twice as large.

Performance of closed positions out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.7%. They were up 3.7% out-performing the market by 83.9%. 

This was not a very good week for the markets, with it all turning fairly suddenly on Thursday, most likely due to Argentine default news and word of increasing sanctions against Russia.

Add to that continuing turmoil in the Middle East, Ebola scares, worries of increasing interest rates and the fear of heights, you really had the makings for profit taking.

For those holding shares of either or both lots of Family Dollar Stores, the week started off nicely, as did new purchases.

But that changed pretty quickly.

Following an almost 400 point decline in the DJIA over the final two trading days I feel fortunate to have had any assignments, at all. Even the early assignment of Texas Instruments to grab its dividend turned out to be a good thing.

Somehow, there was also the opportunity to pull off a few rollovers and even some new covered positions on existing uncovered shares.

After the dust cleared the entire portfolio was lower, but owing to the good fortune of being able to make some of those additional trades, no where close to the decline that the market suffered.

While I was happy to have seen some assignments, rollovers and the new call sales, I would have liked to have rolled over even more and was disappointed by the number of positions that fell victim to the two day slide. However, it just didn’t seem very practical or rewarding to roll some of those positions over to the next or even following week, as the costs to have done so made me rather take my chances with some recovery early in the week and hopefully the ability to simply sell new calls.

While I hate to take losses in any given week, one of the early lessons I learned from reading Money Magazine about 30 years ago is that when they rated mutual funds one of the really key ratings, but which they said was under-estimated by most others, was how a fund performed in a down market. That’s the principal reason I look so closely at comparative performance for each position and cumulatively.

Money Magazine used their mathematical models to show that it was far easier for a portfolio, or a fund, to catch up if it trailed in an advancing market, but far more difficult if it trailed in a declining market.

Conceptually, that makes sense, particularly if you think in terms of what needs to be done in the event of a loss.

Imagine a loss of 20% versus one of 25%.

The 20% loss requires a gain of 25% to reach back to your starting point. However, that 25% loss needs a 33% gain to recover. Decreasing your loss makes it much easier to outperform.

Among the reasons I like volatility, which is now suddenly in everyone’s vocabulary, is that it tends to be associated with a down market. That actually becomes the most opportune time to pull away from the crowd and to position yourself for the next stage higher. That tends to be easier to do than you might think because the volatility, while depressing stock prices, happens to drive premiums higher and also makes it more lucrative to even rollover in the money positions.

Next week it’s anyone’s guess as to whether the market follows through with the weakness of the past few days.

But with some cash in reserve and the good luck of having had at least a couple of assignments to offset some of the new purchases this week, there may be some bargains to be had as trading begins.

If volatility shows itself in the premiums, there may be good reason to bypass the weekly expiration and go straight to the monthly contract, which is just 2 weeks away and also buy a little time for the market to perhaps repair itself, while we sit and get paid to wait.









 

 

 





 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   BX, DOW, EBAY, IP, PFE, TXN

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  C, EBAY, GPS

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycleCHK

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  BMY, GPS, HFC

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  BMY, KSS, TXN

Calls Expired:   BX, DOW, EBAY ($54.50), GM, IP, RIG ($43), RIG ($44)

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  FDO, FDO

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: C (7/31 $0.01), PFE (7/29) $0.26

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  WLT (8/6 $0.01)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BX, C, CLF, COH, DOW, EBAY, FCX, GM, IP, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR , RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Week in Review – July 21 – 25, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
July 21 – 25,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
3 / 3 0 6 6  / 0 5  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

July 21 – 25, 2014

New purchases for the week beat the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.4% and surpassed the adjusted index by 1.6%

With 150 of the S&P 500 reporting this week it could have been an exciting one, but instead the market just vacillated day in and day out, barely budging from its starting point, at least until today.

There was some excitement today, but it was the wrong kind, at least for most, even though it turned out fairly well for the overall portfolio.

There were only 3 new positions opened this week and they climbed 1.4% higher while the overall market was virtually unchanged on an unadjusted basis and 0.2% lower on an adjusted basis.

Existing positions significantly out-performed the market for the week by an unusually large 0.5%.

Performance of closed positions continue to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.4%. They were up 3.4% out-performing the market by 70.8%. 

Last week, up until Friday, was looking as if it would cap off a disappointing week, particularly compared to the previous week when there was so much trading activity.

This week didn’t have too much trading going on as we headed into Friday, with only two new positions open and no new call contracts written, and only a couple of rollovers. When it was all done, despite having a large drop as the back drop, there were some more rollovers and a number of assignments helping to replenish cash at just the right time.

With the market being basically flat for the week it was actually fortuitous to reclaim some of that cash with the potential to plow it back in without having to deal with across the board higher prices as has been the case the past few weeks as Fridays have closed higher.

It was even more fortuitous that with the large decline seen on Friday the walls didn’t come tumbling down and turning those assignments into expirations.

Instead, it ended up being another good week from a number of perspectives.

But first, the negatives:

There were 5 covered positions that expired without getting rolled over. While I expect that for DOH trades, such as in HFC where the premiums are usually pretty slim and you don’t want to cannibalize the gains through unnecessary commission and buyback expenses, with volatility so low it’s also sometimes difficult to justify the rollover of other positions, such as Lorillard.

Also, no new STO trades were made for the week. That means the idle are still idle. I prefer to see them all working. Otherwise, they’re just stocks.

Now, for the positives.

While only 3 new positions, and one of them just today, they at least performed well. As usual, when there are so few positions to consider, whether they did well or not, you have to ascribe most of that to luck. This time we were lucky.

The existing positions significantly outperformed the market. Most often that’s the case when being able to do lots of rollovers. This time around there were some of those, but there was also price appreciation relative to the overall market.

For me, the best news were the assignments. Actually the best news was the bottom line, but I’m trying not to sound crass.

With prices ending the day near their lows that opens the potential opportunity to have some cash to spend next week at levels other than new highs, especially if there’s some further weakness or even a flat market to open the week.

Next week begins with a moderate number of positions set to expire on Friday. However, that number is not so great that more couldn’t be added to that list, as well as considering the use of some expanded weekly offerings.

With a nice boost to cash reserves I’m also less reluctant to consider new positions, especially with some price drops today. Even with some mild upside to begin the week there still may be some relative bargains to consider.

Among them may even be positions, such as Dow Chemical and eBay, which were assigned today. I especially like seeing some assignments right near their strike prices begin the next week below those prices. It has been quite a while since that has been the case, but in a market that isn’t simply going straight higher, that’s actually a fairly common occurrence and is the source for the accumulation of returns.

For now, it just feels good to have dodged a potential bullet today. Sometimes that luck that I think is so important is also about the timing of the market’s moves. For us the timing of a drop like today’s turned out to be very fortuitous, just as last Friday’s nice gains were perfectly timed.

Can’t remotely take credit for that sort of thing, but it’s occasionally nice to be on the right side of randomness.

 

 







 

 

 





 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   BBY, GM, LVS

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycleKSS, GPS, RIG, RIG

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  EBAY (8/8)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  DG

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  BBY, DOW, EBAY, HFC, JPM, LVS

Calls Expired:   FDO, FDO, GPS, HFC, LO

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: FAST (7/21 $0.25)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  C (7/30 $0.01)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, C, CLF, COH, FCX, FDO, GPS, HFC, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR , RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Week in Review – July 14 – 18, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
July 14 – 18,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
3 / 3 3 11 1  / 0 0  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

July 14 – 18, 2014

New purchases for the week beat the unadjusted S&P 500 by 0.5% and surpassed the adjusted index by 0.9%

The market was everywhere this past week, going nowhere, going lower and going higher. While doing that it did confirm its resilience, but really gave no clue of its further character.

The resilience tells me about being true to its past. I want to know about the future.

After a horrid day on Thursday, as a result of competing terrible international stories, the market made a very credible comeback, despite the fact that it is again faced with a weekend of uncertainty, when wiser men of ages past would have lightened their holdings.

New positions, again only a handful of them this week,  performed in a mediocre fashion until some recovery today. They managed to climb 1.1% higher while the overall market was  able to rescue itself from a weekly loss with today’s showing. The overall market ended 0.6% higher on an unadjusted basis and 0.2% higher on an adjusted basis.

Existing positions did well and outpaced the market, in part due to the ability and good luck of being able to roll so many positions over this week. They beat the market by 0.2%

With only one assignment this week performance of positions closed in 2014 didn’t change very much, but they continue to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.4%. They were up 3.4% out-performing the market by  67.2%. 

Coming off of last week this one was looking as if it would be one of significant disappointment.

Last week had something for everyone and without the need to spend too much cash in getting there. The volume of rollovers and new call position trades more than made up for the lack of new positions being opened.

As they say when you bring your cash to the bank door deposit, no one really cares about the white powder on the bills.

That’s how I feel about the weekly income stream. I don’t really care how its generated, but if I could fantasize, it would be generated without the need to open new positions. I would love to just trade the same stocks over and over again and sometimes you can do just that, but it takes a market that isn’t going straight up.

This week there was very little trading to be done and very little to find positive in the way the market reacted during its trading. More than the mood was the reality that without trades there is no accumulation of income and securing of value from positions, which essentially are otherwise worthless unless sold at a profit or delivering dividends.

The expected reaction to the unexpected double helping of bad news on Thursday didn’t do anything to help put positions into good standing for rollovers or assignments. So it was really looking like a week with little to show for the passage of time, which we know as option sellers, has definite value.

But just as unexpected was the fall on Thursday, so too was the rise on Friday.

If you’re not a believer in serendipity, that’s alright, but the sequence of events worked out nicely, as long as you don’t think about the human tragedies.

After the unexpected happened on Thursday, I had very little expectation of being able to accomplish much with existing positions and was fully expecting a week with lots of expired and unassigned positions.

While I would have liked more assignments by the time the final closing bell rang on Friday, and if only I had a little faith that the rally would be sustained I would have allowed more assignments, somehow it  still all worked out.

So when it’s all said and done that leaves a fair number of positions set to expire next week and some available cash for some new purchases. There are worse problems to have, I suppose.

With the August 2014 cycle set to begin and already having so many expirations next week, there may be reason to consider expanded weekly options for any new positions, where they are available.

In an ideal world next week would be similar to the past one and this week.

It would be great to again get a nice number of rollovers, maybe even sell some new cover on uncovered positions and see some assignments, as well.

If the market stays steady or moves just mildly higher, that could be a good possibility.

If, however, it moves much lower, there may finally be a reason to consider going on a little bit of a spending spree, as its been a long time since we’ve done that sort of thing.

Still, I’d rather keep my money safe, as long as I could still find a way to generate some income to justify all of this.

Serendipity helps.



 

 





 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   FAST, GPS, LO

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycleHFC, LO, RIG, RIG

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  BMY (8/1), C (8/1), CHK (8/1), CHK (8/8), WFM (8/8)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: FAST, LB

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  DOW (7/25), HFC (7/25), HFC (7/25)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  BMY

Calls Expired:   none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend PositionsCHK (7/14 $0.09)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  FAST (7/23 $0.25)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, C, CLF, COH, FCX, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR , RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Week in Review – June 30 – July 3, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
June 30 – July 3,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
4 / 4 1 5 1  / 0 2  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

June 30 – July 3, 2014 

New purchases for the week beat the unadjusted S&P 500 by 0.5% and surpassed the adjusted index by 0.6%

The market was on target to do nothing for this week until some unexpected words and better than expected data captured everyone’s attention.

Despite a week of really low voulme, or perhaps because of that really low volume, the market passed 17000 for the first time and then reasonablty decidedly added to that figure today, even as so many had already settled in for the long weekend in the Hamptons.

New positions, and there was still a minimal number of those climbed 1.8% higher while the overall market was up its own very healthy 1.3% on an unadjusted basis and 1.1% higher on an adjusted basis.

Existing positions were able to keep up with the market despite its strong gains. I usually expect them to lag on market strength, but rollovers, dividends and additional option cover helped to equalize performance.

With only one assignment this week, and it again being Las Vegas Sands,  performance of positions closed in 2014 didn’t change very much, but they continue to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.4%. They were up 3.4% out-performing the market by 69.8%. 

It’s a little difficult to characterize this week. It was so short and as has been the case lately, there really hadn’t been much newsworthy or market moving taking place.

The moves higher on the backs of Jenet Yellen’s message that lent further support of stocks over bonds and then the Non-farm payroll statistics reminds me of two weeks ago. Then too, it was a lackluster week until Janet Yellen’s Wednesday press conference, which changed everything.

But if you recall there was absolutely no follow through to the next week.

This week ends with a long, long weekend and so when trading begins on Monday, despite standing at even more new record highs, there’s a reasonable chance that the news and cheer of this week will be long forgotten or at least will not have much in the way of impact on anyone’s thinking.

While there was lots of excitement over the employment news, especially since previous months  were also revised higher, no one seemed to remember the GDP revision and the seeming disconnect between an economy slowing down on the services and production end of things, yet heating up on the emplotyment side of the equation.

The over-riding belief, nd it may finally be time to prepare for real expansion, is that the economy is improving.

Never mind that other measures of employment, that are also released along with the Employment Situation Report, such as the U-6 Report, which is sometimes referred to as the “real unemployment rate” is nearly double the more familiar U-3.

In other words, lots of people are still unable to contribute to economic expansion, yet the market is ignoring an aspect of reality that does have consequences.

Ignoring it may have its own consequences.

Still, it was a good week.

Certainly from the bottom line perspective, but it was also a decent week in terms of trading and generation of option premium, despite the ever lower moving volatility. It was also another nice week in which dividends kept piling on.

The one change of behavior that I see myself succumbing to was evident with shares of Kohls today and some other companies in recent weeks.

In the case of Kohls its shares dropped precipitously in the final 7 minutes of trading to go from about $53.06 to 52.95, with an expiring $53 option. I had been hoping that it would have joined Las Vegas Sands and I was also consiering re-purchasing shares next week, as this middle of the road company is a nice strategic position.

While I don’t want to make any trades in the final 30 minutes, so as to not catch anyone flat-footed and unable to execute a trade, this was also an example of not wanting to pay the premium to close the existing option, as well as incurring the transaction expense, while forward week volatility, and therefore, premium, is relatively low.

Sometimes, and certainly moreso lately, I’d rather take the chance of not being able to make the trade next week than getting into a trade where the net premium is quite a bit less than I would think is appealing, due to the added costs.

Otherwise, it was a good week for rollovers and at least a couple of positions gained new cover. There was a net drain on cash reserves, with four new positions opened and only one assigned, but at least it was a good week in which to put some money to work.

Next week has lots of expirations coming due. While I have funds available for new purchases the likelihood is that, where possible, I would look to the end of the option cycle, now just two weeks away, as the contract term.

The low volatiltiy, however, sometimes makes that hard to swallow, but uncharacteristically the cycle ending month is currently very sparsely populated, so next week may be a good time to fix that and diversify risk a little bit more.

For now, though, my only concern is that there’s a happy, health and safe July 4th holiday ahead for us all.







.



Still, there were more new records and one of those inexplicable triple digit moves that really had no beginning, but did have an end.

This was another one of those weeks that the entire market should have just taken a vacation.



 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  BMY, DG, HFC, WFM

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  BMY, DG, JPM, KSS

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  EBAY (7/25)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  PFE

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  LVS

Calls Expired:   HFC, KSS

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: BMY (7/1 $0.36), JPM (7/1 $0.40), WFM (7/1 $0.12)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  GPS (7/7 $0.22), MA (7/7 $0.11), DRI (7/8 $0.55), FCX (7/11 $0.31)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, C, CLF, COH, EBAY, FCX, HFC, JCP, KSS, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PFE, PBR , RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Week in Review – June 23 – 27, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
June 23 – 27,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
3 / 4 0 7 1  / 0 4  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

June 23 – 27, 2014 

New purchases for the week beat the unadjusted S&P 500 by 0.4% and surpassed the adjusted index by 0.3%

The market did absolutely nothing for the week and may as well have extended its July 4th vacation and just stayed in the Hamptons all week long.

Another week of a minimal number of new positions saw them go 0.3% higher while the overall market was down 0.1 % on an unadjusted basis and 0.1% higher on an adjusted basis.

With only one assignment this week performance of positions closed in 2014 didn’t change very much and continue to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.4%. They were up 3.4% out-performing the market by 69.8%. 

This was one of those weeks that the entire market should have just taken a vacation.

It was about as mediocre as you can get and so far the expression “Sell in May and go away” may turn out to be accurate for the first time in years.

The week was primed to start on an up note coming off of a week that had been buoyed by the Federal Reserve and that really had no forward looking headwinds other than its lofty height.

Maybe it’s the gravity that was the restraining force this week but the trading was more directionless than anything else, not really reflecting any inherent weakness or being shackled by any particular economic weakness or external threat.

Other than a series of government interventions that resulted in some significant sector movements there was absolutely nothing else of any importance this past week and given that next week is just a 3 1/2 day trading week, it’s not too likely that anything on the schedule will have much of an impact.

That may include the Emplotyment SItuation Report which is being released on a Thursday due to the Friday holiday. However, any indication that the revised GDP numbers may have more than just a relationship to bad weather could make the payroll report highly significant for the first time in a very long time, but I don’t think that will turn out to be the case.

Despite another incredible revision in the GDP, the employment numbers have been reasonably accurate and they ahve been fairly consistent, although you do have to wonder when that growth in the work force will translate into something readily observable in the retail marketplace.

But that’s next week.

This week was another in a string of disappointing weeks. With very little trading activity opening new positions, the back and forth of the market, with no real conviction left no opportunity to find new cover for uncovered positions.

The only positive that I can find from the week is the ability to rollover as many positions as we did, but even with that there were 4 new postions added to the uncovered list, as they expired today.

Lately, with the volatility so low there have been times that I would rather see the expiration thatnto take on the cost of closing out a position in the rollover process, because the forward week’s premiums are just so low compared to the expiring week’s premiums.

One such example was Pfizer. Despite some significant moves during the course of the week, up and down, its forward premium for next week and the week after were so low that the cost of rolling over became highly signicant, even if trading in volume.

The same was the case with Dow Chemical that fell in sympathy with DuPont, who surprised everyone with their reduced guidance at the market’s close on Thursday.

What you may have noticed is that most of the rollovers this week by passed the July 3rd expiration and went to the July 11th. That means that with next week there is opportunity to still populate the July 3rd list of expirations, the following week or the monthly. However, even though next week is a very shortened week, there may be greater advantage to looking at July 3 expirations because they may have comparable premiums to those with longer time frames.

Bring back volatility and that will stop being the case.

Hopefully next week will be more definitive. Ultimately, when it comes to assessing a given week I don’t particularly care whether it is up or down, as long as it helps to drive lots of activity, because it’s all about milking the market and existing and new positions to generate as much additional money as possible. With weeks like this past one, even if the bottom line increases, there’s no particular glee if money can’t be skimmed from the assets without reducing them.

While I’m lazy, I want my stocks to work hard. This week they didn’t work very hard.

I may spend this weekend trying to think of an equivalent action to the ones taken by the guards in “Cool Hand Luke,” when one of the inmates didn’t give him a good day’s work.





 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  DOW, JPM, KSS

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  KSS

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  BMY (7/11), EBAY (7/11), EBAY (7/11), GM (7/11), MA (7/11)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: BBBY (7/11)

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  LVS

Calls Expired:   C, EBAY, HFC, PFE

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: DOW (6/26 $0.37)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  BMY (7/1 $0.36), JPM (7/1 $0.40), WFM (7/1 $0.12)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, C, CLF, COH, EBAY, FCX, HFC, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PFE, PBR , RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Week in Review – June 16 – 20, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
June 16 – 20,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
3 / 3 4 3 11  / 0 1  / 0 1

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

June 16 – 20, 2014 

New purchases for the week trailed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 0.2% and surpassed the adjusted index by the same 0.2%

The market finished higher for the 6th consecutive day, which is often a difficult situation to compete with, but it wasn’t one in which anyone was left in the dust. 

New positions were 1.2% higher while the overall market was up 1.3% on an unadjusted basis and 1.0% on an adjusted basis.

Existing positions lagged the S&P 500 by 0.4% for the week, with many positions having reached their strike levels, after having out-performed the market by 0.9% the prior week.

Performance of positions closed in 2014 continue to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.4%. They were up 3.4% out-performing the market by 69.7%. 

Lately I’ve found plenty of reason to be dis-satisfied with the process of looking at the week just passed.

I tend to dwell on those things that didn’t go as planned and usually gloss over the things that worked or did go as expected, or more accurately, hoped.

Typically, I try to remind myself that the process doesn’t really matter, it’s the bottom line each week, as well as the ability to put the portfolio to work and by doing so keeping me from having to work. I’ve grown accustomed to having positions function as my annuity and don’t even mind having to work  at it to make them keep doing so.

Sometimes, getting my hands on the premium and dividend cash makes me temporarily look the other way if the bottom line wasn’t as healthy as I would have liked, although then I remind myself that its performance shouldn’t be measured in a vacuum.

When doing that, I usually feel better, even though there are those frustrating individual positions that often don’t seem to be getting better.

This week I’m actually pretty happy.

It was another week of very few new positions being opened and I’m actually not thrilled about that, but now that it’s all said and done I can live with the lack of activity, as it did at least keep up with the overall market.

What I’m happy about is the number of assignments that occured, as that helped to meet one of my goals for the past few months, which was to decrease the total number of positions in the portfolio.

The assignments also helped to replenish the cash reserve that had been getting drained the past few weeks and to some degree was also responsible for a deliberate  decrease in purchase of new positions.

There was also the opportunity to sell some new cover for existing positions, as well as the chance to rollover a handful of positions.

Maybe best of all was seeing the assignment of Weyerhauser. I’ve been anxious to see that go for quite a while, but crazily enough, once it finishes its spin off of its housing and real estate unit, I may want to add it right back.

Go figure.

But really, most of all, it’s still the bottom line.

So for next week there’s cash in hand and already a number of positions with June 27th expiration dates, so the emphasis should be to look for diversifying those expirations by looking for some expanded weekly options.

With the volatility still being so low those expanded weekly options aren’t always very appealing, but perhaps combining them with dividends may work to get an ROI that has some reason to take the associated risk.

That’s what continues being the issue at hand as more and more record closes come and then get surpassed.

It seems that while the account grows, so too does risk.

Because of that I’m not entirely excited about re-investing too much of the significant piece that is being returned over the weekend as all of these positions are being assigned.

But as always also seems to be the case it’s hard to completely remove yourself from the equation or not take part of the activity.

So I expect another week or relatively slow personal trading trying to get a feel for whether to try and balance new positions with short term and longer term expirations in order to protect against any short term downward movement in markets.

That seems to be an unending objective, but for some reason feels more so to me, as this nice week has come to its end.

 







 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  LOW, LVS, MA

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  HFC (7/3), LVS (7/3)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: LB

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  BMY, EBAY, HFC, PFE

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  BX, CY, CY, FAST, GME, IP, LO, LOW, MET, RIG, WY

Calls Expired:   DRI

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: SBGI

Ex-dividend Positions: LVS (6/18 $0.50)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  none

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, C, CLF, COH, EBAY, FCX, HFC, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR , RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Week in Review – June 9 – 13, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
June 9 – 13,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
4 / 4 1 6 0  / 0 3  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

June 9 – 13, 2014 

New purchases for the week beat the unadjusted S&P 500 by 2.2% and surpassed the adjusted index by 2.1%

The market finished lower for the first time in the past four weeks and that’s usually an invitation to out-perform.

New positions were 1.5% higher while the overall market was down 0.7% on an unadjusted basis. 

Existing positions out-performed the S&P 500 by 0.9% for the week.

Since there were no assignments this week, performance of positions closed in 2014 continue to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.5%. They were up 3.3% out-performing the market by 89.6%. 

I’m not really certain how to characterize this week.

Ultimately, it’s always about the bottom line and the bottom line was better this week than last wek, but there’s also the path taken that has to be considered.

This week just didn’t have very much in terms of activity to get from Point A to Point B so to a large degree it’s a question of just being taken along for the market’s ride, which closed surprisingly strongly, given the real geo-political uncertainty that may accelearate over this weekend.

During the week there wasn’t the kind of opportunity to get new cover, as I had hoped, as we saw two consecutive triple digit losses for the week and no really strong days. All in all, it was a mediocre week, which itself wasn’t much of a surprise, since there was really little economic news delivered.

That may be different next week as we have both an FOMC release and a Chairman’s press conference, both coming just days before the monthly expiration.

For me, that’s always a reason for concern. At the moment it appears as if a fair number of positions are in line to be assigned or rolled over, but that can change with just an errant word or two.

Given that there were no assignments this week that immediately makes me less likely to eagerly spend down cash reserves in the coming week, particularly as tensions are increasing in Iraq.

So what was good about this week? The process wasn’t very good, but the outcome was acceptible.

It did get us one week closer to the monthly expiration and leaving only one more week for breath holding.

New purchases fared well as did existing purchases and of course, there were more dividend inflows.

With existing positions doing well and with a number currently being in the money that also means being in a better position to withstand market weakness, although it also means potentially benefitting less in the event of market strentgh next week.

From those persectives I might be happy as far as the way the week transpired, but I would have liked much more trading activity. In hindsight that’s always easy to say, especially those weeks when the new psotiions fare well, as they did this week.

On another positive note, although a very tiny one, volatility did creep up just a little but, but not really to the point that anyone would really notice much in terms of everyday boosts to option premiums. Still, any sustained and slow increase in volatility could be very helpful, not only in getting more in exchange for selling options, but more choices in the time frames used in those sales.

For next week I don’t expect too many new positions to be opened, although some of the weakness this week has made some positions more attractive. The weekend’s events in Iraq may have something to say about how widespread some of those “bargains” may become or may tell us whether there’s reasonable reason to believe that a near term floor to prices has been set or not.

Instead of thinking too much about new psoitions next week and spending down too much cash reserve, I’m hoping it will be a week of assignments, rollovers and most of all, newly covered positions.

That would cap off the month in a nice way, but first we have to get past the FOMC hurdle and the occasional mis-spoken word of phrase that can spook traders.



 







 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  GPS, LO, LVS, RIG

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  GME

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  C (6/27), EBAY (6/27), FDO (7/11), FDO (7/11), GM (6/27)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  HFC

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:   none

Calls Expired:    EBAY, HFC, PFE

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: KSS (6/9 $0.39), FDO (6/11 $0.31), NEM (6/10 $0.025)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  LVS (6/18 $0.50)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, C, CLF, COH, EBAY, FCX, HFC, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR ,PFE, RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Week in Review – June 2 – 6, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
June 2 – 6,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
3 / 3 3 5 5  / 0 4  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

June 2 – 6, 2014 

New purchases for the week badly trailed both the  unadjusted and adjusted S&P 500 by 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively, as two of the three positions fared very poorly in a week that just set one new high after the next.

The market finished higher for the third consecutive week and set new closing records and did so without any unexpected or unexpectedly good news. New positions were 0.8% lower while the overall market was up 1.4% on an unadjusted basis and 1.3% on an adjusted basis.

Performance of positions closed in 2014 continue to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.5%. They were up 3.3% out-performing the market by 89.6%. 

More records this week as the market received no unwanted surprises and simply ran with it. 

This would have been a good week to have thrown caution out the window and just anticipated that the market doesn’t really seem to need a catalyst to go higher. It just needs the lack of a deterrent.

Despite having a decent number of assignments,  accumulating a fair number of dividend positions this week and being able to rollover some positions and also doing so to secure some dividends, there wasn’t much to be happy about this week.

As usual, it’s bottom line related.

I don’t mind going lower in a given week, as long as it’s not lower than the market. I do mind, however, trailing the market, especially when it goes higher without real reason or without taking a break while doing so.

I’m usually less happy than most when the market simply goes higher and this week was a perfect example of getting left behind as the market advanced another 1.2% for the week.

For those that criticize a covered option strategy this would be the week to point to and say “I told you so.”

With all of those in the money positions the existing positions trailed the market by 0.9% this week. Luckily, I’m not prone to beating my dog.

For perhaps only the second time this year the out-performance of closed positions compared to the market decreased. For much of the year I had been saying that the out-performance was too high to be sustained, at least by my historical standards. Recently that out-performance exceeded 100%. Now it is down to about 90%, as even the 5 assigned positions either didn’t fare as well as the market during their period of holding or just barely exceeded that performance.

Still, not bad, but reflective of a market proceeding without me the past week.

Seeing a fair number of positions now in the money and with still time remaining on their contracts, it’s easy to understand why I wouldn’t mind a little bit of a give back of all of these gains.

Ultimately, that kind of give back would improve the comparative results in the same way that an unchecked advance detracts from it.

Firstly, being in the money means that there’s a cushion to be given back without actually detracting from the bottom line, as long as the decrease still keeps the position in the money.

But more importantly, a broad decline would at least nudge up volatility a little, although at this point t has gotten so low that a little wouldn’t offer too much advantage. What a significant move higher in volatility would accomplish, even if only returning to a VIX of 15, which would have been low by all time historical standards, would be to increase premiums.

But more importantly it would start making longer term options, such as the expanded weeklies and monthlies, more attractive. At the moment, for so many positions there is essentially no additional reward for adding additional time.

Option buyers see little possibility of sudden or drastic moves coming in the future. They are more likely to perceive such a move now, but not tomorrow.

Also, there is essentially no premium for intrinsic value. When volatility is high option buyers pay for intrinsic value. Now they aren’t and subsequently it’s difficult to roll over in the money positions, particularly the deeper in the money they happen to be. Instead of intrinsic value having the added bonus of time value added to it, that time value is almost non-existent.

When volatility is high those kind of rollover trades are easy and much more profitable than they are now.

Additionally, it seems that as the market to profit from buying and selling options decreases for the deep in the money positions, the option buyer is much more likely to exercise early to capture a dividend, since there’s much less likelihood of creating profitable trades on the options contract itself once that time value has been completely discounted, even when substantial time may remain.

The key difference in a high volatility environment is that you do much better by simply rolling over positions, even if they’re in the money. Some long time subscribers will remember that we used to routinely roll over those positions rather than letting them get assigned.

Besides the profit from the roll overs there was less need to find replacement stocks, many of which would also likely be trading at or near highs.

But, at least there’s always next week for some mini-disaster to strike.

Wouldn’t that be nice?

OK, I’m not quite that curmudgeonly yet, but I would like to see some kind of break in this new daily record setting environment.

With some cash from assignments and all of those in the money positions, that would just be exquisite timing and could get me into a buying mood again.



 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  BMY, HFC, LB

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: EBAY ($51), EBAY $51.50), GME

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycleKSS (6/27)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycleFDO (7/11)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  BX, C, DRI

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:   GM ($35), GPS, JPM, LOW, MET

Calls Expired:   BMY, BMY, EBAY, HFC

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend PositionsCOH (6/4 $0.34), GM (6/6 $0.30), GME (6/2 $0.33),  HFC (6/4 $0.32),  LB (6/4 $0.34MOS (6/4 $0.25)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  FDO (6/11 $0.31), KSS (6/9 $0.39), NEM (6/10 $0.25)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, C, CLF, COH, EBAY, FCX, HFC, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR ,RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Week in Review – May 19 – 23, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
May 19 – 23,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
4 / 4 9 6 6  / 0 2  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

May 19 – 23, 2014 

New purchases for the week trailed the S&P 500 for the week that saw a 1.2% gain, while  those new purchases matched the performance of the time adjusted S&P 500, which were both 1.0% higher for the week.

The market finished higher for the first time in 3 weeks and did so with a bit of confidence as it even moved nicely higher prior to the FOMC report and then lost none of the steam it had built up after a large loss the prior day.

Performance of positions closed in 2014 continue to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.6%. They were up 3.3% out-performing the market by 101.5%.

This week was a little more like it after a couple of weeks of very little trading and dashed expectations as the market reversed course, and not in a good way for the latter parts of the past couple of weeks.

The combination of very few assignments and very few rollovers, especially like last week is one that I don’t particularly like to see, but it appears as if the decision to defer rollovers in the hope that this week would be somewhat better did work out. It’s just not the kind of decision I want to be in a position to make more than once or twice every five years.

This time around the week reversed course in the good kind of way.

WIth all of the concerns we had this time last week it was another week of talking about new records as the week came to a close. Unlike some previous weeks we didn’t see a collapse in the latter part of the week and instead saw unexpected strength, despite the lack of any catalyst.

As a result this week you could count those chickens before they were hatched and not end up overly disappointed.

This week had a nice combination of assignments, rollovers, newly covered positions and new purchases. It seems as if it has been a while since those all came together. I was especially happy to find some new cover and get some laggards to start earning their keep.

As a result of that combination of assignments and rollovers the cash reserve is restored somewhat and available for new purchases. With only 5 positions set to expire next week and with volatility so low the greatest likelihood is that next week’s new purchases will look at a preponderance of weekly option contracts, rather than expanded weekly contracts. However, with the coming week being a shortened one due to the Memorial Day holiday, I may look at some expanded option poossibilities, if only to make up a little for the lost day of premium for the coming week.

With another new record high set to end the week despite having money to burn, you still have to be mindful of how precarious it can be at the top and how far that fall can be. Most everything is a balance between consideration of risk and reward. However, as we climb so hgh it seems reasonable to believe that the continued upside reward is decreasing relative to the downside risk.

For that reason, although the money is there and there are now six fewer positions to stock the portfolio, I’m not terribly interested in replacing all six during the coming week. With so many rollovers and newly covered positions some of the upcoming week’s income has already been realized and that removes some of the need to find new sources of revenue.

Of course, as with every week, the plan may be great, but it can all change with the first opening bell of the week.

WIth the portfolio having lost some positions I wouldn’t mind a little bit of a decline to start the week on Tuesday and the potential opportunity to repurchase some of the recently assigned positions.

The longer you do this the less boring it gets to keep doing the same thing over and over again.

Have a safe and fun Memorial Day.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):

New Positions Opened:  HFC, IP, KSS, UA

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  EBAY, LOW, MET, PFE

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  EBAY (6/6), HFC (6/13)

CallsRolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  CY, EBAY, FAST, GM, LLY, MET, RIG, SBUX, TXN

Put contracts sold and still open: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:   CMCSA, IP, MA, SBUX, TXN, UA

Calls Expired:   GM, JPM

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:  TGT (5/19 $0.43), CLF (5/21 $0.15), IP (5/21 $0.35)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  RIG (5/28 $0.75), HFC special dividend (5/28 $0.50)

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, BX, C, CLF, COH, CY, DRI, FCX, FDO, GM, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR, RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)

* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.

Week in Review – May 12-16, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
May 12 – 16,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
2 / 2 2 1 2  / 0 11  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

May 12 – 16, 2014   

There were only two new purchases for the week and they beat the time adjusted S&P 500 by 0.6% and also surpassed the unadjusted S&P 500 index by a smaller 0.1% during a week that ended much better in the final two hours than the previous two days would have suggested to be the case..

The market broke its pattern of 10 straight weeks of alternating weekly gains and losses and posted a second consecutive losing week with an unadjusted  loss this week of 0.1% and with an adjusted loss  0.5%. The two new positions gained 0.1% during the time period.

Existing positions also showed a 0.1% advantage over the market, eking out a small gain.

With only two assignments for the week the performance of positions closed in 2014 didn’t change much as they continued to exceed the S&P 500 performance by 1.7%. They were up 3.3% out-performing the market by 102%.

Another discouraging week for the markets as it put together two really bad days on top of getting the week started on a really sour note. Ordinarily a strong up day to start the week after you’ve rolled up a number of positions the previous week is something that I like to see, especially if not really keen on spending new money. to spend. But this week the early strength just wasn’t very convincing and couldn’t lure me into much new buying. I wasn’t literally or figuratively buying the mood of that first day and I couldn’t really get very comfortable with spending much to create new positions.

In hindsight that may have been fortuitous because for the rest of the market was marked not only by losers but by the magnitude of the losses.

On a positive note the market didn’t completely fall apart on Friday, which could easily have been the case on a monthly option ending day.

Having gone through about 5 years of trading this was my slowest week during that entire time. Not only with the number of new purchases, but also with the combined number of rollovers, new covered positions and assignments.

It was also only the second or third time that I believed that it was warranted to let contracts expire rather than rolling them over. That was due to the relatively high costs associated with rollovers and the belief that some kind of  a bounce is likely to occur after what was a fairly unprovoked drop this week.

Given how low the premiums would be to sell entry level strikes after having to buy back existing contracts, there was very little excitement about doing so.

If there’s any positive spin to be had at all, it’s regarding the final two hours of trading that brought the market to a respectable close and didn’t allow it to take the easy way out. During that final recovery I made almost as many trades as for the entire week, with two new covers established and one unexpected assignment. Of course, just a few days earlier I had already been counting all of the assignments and rollovers I thought were sure to come.

What all of this means for next week is that there is less new new money to replenish cash reserves, although not much was spent this week, either. However, the real focus has to be on selling new call options and first creating another weekly income stream before thinking too much about the possibility of capitalizing on what may be relative bargain prices.

That can be hard to do as some of the prices do look really appealing.

Ultimately, I’m glad this week is over and I’m happy to have escaped reasonably intact. after it was all said and done it was as if this week didn’t even happen. I suppose that’s better than one of the two alternatives.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):

New Positions Opened:  CMCSA, LLY

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

CallsRolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: MET

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  FCX, FDO, GM, LOW

Put contracts sold and still open: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:   SBUX, STX

Calls Expired:   BMY, CY, FAST, FCX, FDO, GM, LLY, MET, RIG, SBUX, TXN

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:  LLY (5/13 $0.49), STX (5/12 $0.43)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  TGT (5/19 $0.43), CLF (5/21 $0.15), IP (5/21 $0.35)

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, BX, C, CLF, COH, CY, DRI, FAST, FCX, FDO, GM, JCPLLY, LOW, LULU, MCP, MET, MOS,  NEM, PBR, RIG, SBUX, TGT, TXN, WFM, WLT, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)

* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.